The decline of the 2022 Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies.

In 2022, a global outbreak of mpox occurred, predominantly impacting men who have sex with men (MSM). The rapid decline of this epidemic is yet to be fully understood. We investigated the Italian outbreak by means of an individual-based mathematical model calibrated to surveillance data. The model accounts for transmission within the MSM sexual contact network, in recreational and sex clubs attended by MSM, and in households. We indicate a strong spontaneous reduction in sexual transmission (61-87%) in affected MSM communities as the possible driving factor for the rapid decline in cases. The MSM sexual contact network was the main responsible for transmission (about 80%), with clubs and households contributing residually. Contact tracing prevented about half of the potential cases, and a higher success rate in tracing contacts could significantly amplify its effectiveness. Notably, immunizing the 23% of MSM with the highest sexual activity (10 or more partners per year) could completely prevent new mpox resurgences. This research underscores the importance of augmenting contact tracing, targeted immunization campaigns of high-risk groups, and fostering reactive behavioral changes as key strategies to manage and prevent the spread of emerging sexually transmitted pathogens like mpox within the MSM community.

A large multi-country outbreak of monkeypox across 41 countries in the WHO European Region, 7 March to 23 August 2022.

Following the report of a non-travel-associated cluster of monkeypox cases by the United Kingdom in May 2022, 41 countries across the WHO European Region have reported 21,098 cases and two deaths by 23 August 2022. Nowcasting suggests a plateauing in case notifications. Most cases (97%) are MSM, with atypical rash-illness presentation. Spread is mainly through close contact during sexual activities. Few cases are reported among women and children. Targeted interventions of at-risk groups are needed to stop further transmission.

Early Estimates of Monkeypox Incubation Period, Generation Time, and Reproduction Number, Italy, May-June 2022.

We analyzed the first 255 PCR-confirmed cases of monkeypox in Italy in 2022. Preliminary estimates indicate mean incubation period of 9.1 (95% CI 6.5-10.9) days, mean generation time of 12.5 (95% CI 7.5-17.3) days, and reproduction number among men who have sex with men of 2.43 (95% CI 1.82-3.26).

Malaria surveillance system and Hospital Discharge Records: Assessing differences in Italy, 2011-2017 database analysis.

BACKGROUND: In Italy, surveillance through mandatory notification of cases to the National Surveillance System (NSS) has shown evidence of underreporting over the years. To evaluate the overall quality of malaria dataset, Hospital Discharge Records (HDRs) were analyzed as a second data source. METHODS: Malaria cases by NSS and by HRDs were compared and analyzed from 2011-through 2017. The impact of cases was estimated by annual rates per 100,000 residents. RESULTS: Cases reported to NSS and to HDRs were 5,149 and 6,446, respectively. The annual rate recorded by NSS increased from 1.2 per 100,000 in 2011 to 1.4 per 100,000 in 2017, a similar trend was shown by HDRs, from 1.4 per 100,000 in 2011 to 1.6 per 100,000 in 2017. Every year, the number of NSS cases was lower than HDRs cases suggesting moderate underreporting of the mandatory notification. In both data sources adult males aged 25 to 44, and non-Italian travellers visiting friends and relatives were the most affected groups; Plasmodium falciparum was the prevalent agent identified, being the imported cases originated mainly from sub-Saharan Africa. As places of diagnosis and care, both data sources indicated hospitals located in Northern Italy in over 70% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: Although the comparison of malaria cases highlighted some underreporting by NSS, a fair agreement between the two institutional information systems was observed. The use of both data sources improves the performance of malaria surveillance in Italy, essentially for early warning systems in case of locally-acquired events and primary prevention in international travellers.

Non-imported malaria in Italy: paradigmatic approaches and public health implications following an unusual cluster of cases in 2017.

BACKGROUND: The European region achieved interruption of malaria transmission during the 1970s. Since then, malaria control programs were replaced by surveillance systems in order to prevent possible re-emergence of this disease. Sporadic cases of non-imported malaria were recorded in several European countries in the past decade and locally transmitted outbreaks of Plasmodium vivax, most probably supported by Anopheles sacharovi, have been repeatedly reported from Greece since 2009. The possibility of locally-transmitted malaria has been extensively studied in Italy where the former malaria vector An. labranchiae survived the control campaign which led to malaria elimination. In this study, we present paradigmatic cases that occurred during a 2017 unusual cluster, which caused strong concern in public opinion and were carefully investigated after the implementation of the updated malaria surveillance system. METHODS: For suspected locally-transmitted malaria cases, alerts to Ministry of Health (MoH) and the National Institute of Health (ISS) were mandated by the Local Health Services (LHS). Epidemiological investigations on the transmission modes and the identification of possible infection's source were carried out by LHS, MoH and ISS. Entomological investigations were implemented locally for all suspected locally-transmitted cases that occurred in periods suitable to anopheline activity. Molecular diagnosis by nested-PCR for the five human Plasmodium species was performed to support microscopic diagnosis. In addition, genotyping of P. falciparum isolate was carried out to investigate putative sources of infection and transmission modalities. RESULTS: In 2017, a cluster of seven non-imported cases was recorded from August through October. Among them, P. ovale curtisi was responsible of one case whereas six cases were caused by P. falciparum. Two cases were proved to be nosocomial while the other five were recorded as cryptic at the end of epidemiological investigations. CONCLUSIONS: The epidemiological evidence shows that the locally acquired events are sporadic, often remain unresolved and classified as cryptic ones despite investigative efforts. The "cluster" of seven non-imported cases that occurred in 2017 in different regions of Italy therefore represents a conscious alert that should lead us to maintain a constant level of surveillance in a former malaria endemic country.

HIV rapid testing in community and outreach sites: results of a nationwide demonstration project in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Globally the access to HIV testing has greatly increased over the past 30 years. Nonetheless, a high proportion of people living with HIV remains undiagnosed, even in resource rich countries. To increase the proportion of people aware of their HIV serostatus and their access to medical care, several strategies have been proposed including HIV rapid test programs offered outside health facilities. The aim of this project was to evaluate the feasibility and efficacy of the HIV rapid testing offered in community and outreach settings in Italy. METHODS: We conducted a national demonstration project on HIV rapid tests offered in community and outreach settings, including nongovernmental organization (NGO) facilities, primary care services for migrants and low-threshold services or mobile units for drug users (DU services). HIV rapid test on oral fluid (OraQuick®; Orasure Technologies) was anonymously offered to eligible people who presented themselves at the selected sites. Those with reactive results were referred to a specialized outpatient unit for confirmatory testing and medical care. RESULTS: Over a period of six months a total of 2949 tests were performed and 45.2% of individuals tested had not been previously tested. Overall 0.9% (27/2949) of tested people had a preliminary positive test. In NGO facilities the positivity rate was 1%. All subjects who performed their confirmatory test were confirmed as positive. In services for migrants the positivity rate was 0.5 and 80% were referred to care (with 1 false positive test). In DU services we observed the highest positivity rate (1.4%) but the lowest linkage to care (67%), with 1 false positive test. CONCLUSION: Our project showed that the offering of an HIV rapid testing program in community and outreach settings in Italy is feasible and that it may reach people who have never been tested before, while having a significant yield in terms of new HIV diagnoses as well.

Correlates of infection and molecular characterization of blood-borne HIV, HCV, and HBV infections in HIV-1 infected inmates in Italy: An observational cross-sectional study.

Coinfection of blood-borne hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses (HBV and HCV, respectively) in human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1)-positive individuals frequently occurs in inmate population and peculiar viral strains and patterns of virological markers may be observed.Plasma from 69 HIV-1-positive inmates was obtained from 7 clinical centers connected with correctional centers in different towns in Italy. HIV, HBV, and HCV markers were tested by commercial assays. Virus genotyping was carried out by sequencing the protease and reverse transcriptase-encoding region (PR-RT region) for HIV and a region encompassing the NS5B gene for HCV and subsequent phylogenetic analysis.Twelve over 14 HIV-subtyped inmates were infected with HIV-1 subtype B strains. The 2 non-B strains belonged to subtype G and CRF02_AG, in an Italian and a Gambian patient, respectively. Variants carrying the K103N and Y181C resistance mutations to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) were found in 2 out of 9 patients naive for combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) (22.2%). Most HIV-positive patients (92.8%) showed evidence of past or present HBV and/or HCV infection. Prevalence of HBV and HCV was 81.2% for both viruses, whereas prevalence of HBV/HCV coinfection was 69.6%. A significantly higher presence of HCV infection was found in Italians [odds ratio (OR) 11.0; interval 1.7-80.9] and in drug users (OR 27.8; interval 4.9-186.0). HCV subtypes were determined in 42 HCV or HBV/HCV-coinfected individuals. HCV subtypes 1a, 3a, 4d, and 1b were found in 42.9%, 40.5%, 14.3%, and 2.4% of inmates, respectively. Low titers of HBV DNA in HBV DNA positive subjects precluded HBV subtyping.The high prevalence of HBV and HCV coinfections in HIV-infected inmates, as well as the heterogeneity of HIV and HCV subtypes suggest the need to adopt systematic controls in prisons to monitor both the burden and the genetic forms of blood-borne viral infections, in order to apply targeted therapeutic interventions.