A rural-urban latitudinal study of the distributions of Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex pipiens bioforms in their southernmost sympatric fringe.

Mosquitoes grouped in the complex Culex pipiens L. (Diptera: Culicidae) are important vectors of medical and veterinary diseases. In the South American sympatric region, Cx. pipiens and Culex quinquefasciatus Say coexist and potentially hybridize. To identify key drivers of their geographical distribution, mosquito immatures were collected from flower vases of eight urban/rural cemetery pairs within a 5° latitudinal transect along Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. The specimens were identified by molecular methods and their relative proportion modelled as a function of environmental variables. At the beginning of the warm season, northern and southern cemeteries presented exclusively Cx. quinquefasciatus and Cx. pipiens, respectively, with different proportions of both at mid latitudes. By the end of the summer, Cx. quinquefasciatus was present throughout the study area, exclusively in 11 of the 16 cemeteries both rural and urban, whereas Cx. pipiens was predominant only in the southernmost pair. Mean annual temperature, photoperiod variability and time of the season were key drivers of their distributions. All specimens of Cx. pipiens were identified as form molestus and no hybrids were recognized. The reported distribution patterns and the potential absence of Cx. pipiens f. pipiens and hybrids are discussed, along with their implications in disease transmission.

Modelling the association between deltamethrin resistance in Triatoma infestans populations of the Argentinian Gran Chaco region with environmental factors.

In Latin America, Triatoma infestans is the main vector of the protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi, causal agent of Chagas disease. This blood-sucking triatomine is widely distributed in the Gran Chaco ecoregion, where chemical control has failed because of the evolution of resistance to pyrethroid insecticides. Recently, we described a deltamethrin high resistant focus in Güemes Department (Chaco province) characterized by susceptible populations, populations with low resistance (without field control failures) and some of the populations with the highest resistance level detected. This toxicological heterogeneity could be a result of non-homogenous insecticide pressure and be influenced by environmental factors. The present study evaluated the association of deltamethrin resistance ratios (RR50s) of T. infestans populations with explanatory variables extracted from the WorldClim dataset and constructed from information of National Chagas Program actions during 2005-2015. Control actions were distributed throughout the analyzed period, representing a homogeneous selective pressure. The average percentage of total positive houses was 33.66%. Models that included temperature and precipitation indicators presented 65% explanation. When village size variables where added, the explanatory power reached 70%. This observational result suggests that the climate may favor directly or indirectly the development/selection for resistance, representing a valuable tool to understand the occurrence of resistance that could increase the Chagas disease in the Gran Chaco.

Past, present and future of Aedes aegypti in its South American southern distribution fringe: What do temperature and population tell us?

Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) (Linnaeus) is currently the major threat among arbovirus vectors in the Americas. We examined its past, present, and future distribution patterns in the South American fringe in association with environmental and demographic variables at two spatial scales. We updated the database of the occurrence of Ae. aegypti per locality and modelled by GLMM the past occurrence (until 2000) and its expansion (2001-2017) as a function of air temperature, precipitation, altitude, and population. We also conducted a field survey in 7 pairs of urban/rural cemeteries along the entire temperature range within the expansion region. At both scales, mean annual air temperature and human population were significantly associated with the distribution of Ae. aegypti. Projection of the expansion models for 2030 under two climatic change scenarios showed a vast infestation, mainly driven by the shift of the 16 °C isotherm. We postulate a quantitative compromise between air temperature and human population associated with vector occurrence, along with potential thresholds for their mutual favourability.

Heterogeneous distribution of Culex pipiens, Culex quinquefasciatus and their hybrids along the urbanisation gradient.

The mosquitoes of the Culex pipiens complex, hereafter referred to as the Pipiens Assemblage, are vectors of arbovirus of worldwide concern including West Nile and St. Louis encephalitis. Given their distinct eco-physiology and vectorial capacity, accurate specimen identification and insight in the environmental drivers of their distribution are essential for the understanding of disease transmission patterns. Using a PCR-based identification protocol, we characterized the spatial distribution of Cx. pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus and their hybrids developing in used tyres located within the overlapping region in South America as a function of different estimators of the urbanisation gradient. Out of 84 samples collected from tyre piles of 20 sites, we identified 369 larvae which corresponded predominantly to Cx. quinquefasciatus (76.4% of immatures) all along the gradient but more frequent at the urban end. Cx. pipiens (21.4%) was more conspicuous at the low urbanised end but was also present in highly urbanised sites, whereas hybrids were collected in very low numbers (2.2%). The urbanisation estimator best associated with the heterogeneous occurrence of the Pipiens Assemblage members was the proportion of impervious surface 1km around each tyre pile, which explained 41.7% of the variability in the data, followed closely by the distance to the Capital City (38.3%). Cumulative annual precipitation, population number in a 1km radius around each pile and distance to the de la Plata River were significantly associated with the distribution of the Pipiens Assemblage at lower explanation percentages (20-23%). A thorough understanding of the ecological basis and environmental associations of the distribution of Pipiens Assemblage members will enable forecasting population trends in changing environments to develop effective control measures for mosquitoes and the diseases they transmit.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of dengue 2009 outbreak in Córdoba City, Argentina.

During 2009 the biggest dengue epidemic to date occurred in Argentina, affecting almost half the country. We studied the spatio-temporal dynamics of the outbreak in the second most populated city of the country, Córdoba city. Confirmed cases and the results of an Aedes aegypti monitoring during the outbreak were geolocated. The imported cases began in January, and the autochthonous in March. Thirty-three percent of the 130 confirmed cases were imported, and occurred mainly at the center of the city. The autochthonous cases were more frequent in the outskirts, specially in the NE and SE. Aedes aegypti infestation showed no difference between neighborhoods with or without autochthonous cases, neither between neighborhoods with autochthonous vs. imported cases. The neighborhoods with imported cases presented higher population densities. The majority of autochthonous cases occurred at ages between 25 and 44 years old. Cases formed a spatio-temporal cluster of up to 20 days and 12km. According to a mathematical model that estimates the required number of days needed for transmission according to daily temperature, the number of cases begun to fall when more than 15.5 days were needed. This may be a coarse estimation of mean mosquito survival in the area, provided that the study area is close to the global distribution limit of the vector, and that cases prevalence was very low.

Imperviousness as a predictor for infestation levels of container-breeding mosquitoes in a focus of dengue and Saint Louis encephalitis in Argentina.

Dengue and Saint Louis encephalitis virus are among the most important emerging viruses transmitted by mosquitoes at the global scale, and from 2009 onward both diseases have reached temperate Argentina. To test whether the urbanization level can be used as a predictor for the infestation levels of container-breeding mosquito vectors, we searched for Aedes aegypti and Culex pipiens in 8400 water-filled containers from 14 cemeteries of Buenos Aires Province and we used generalized linear models to relate positive containers with the impervious area quantified inside (internal PIA) and outside (external PIA) cemeteries. The best model for Ae. aegypti explained 91% of the variability and included the season, the internal PIA and the external PIA at 1km as a quadratic function, showing a parabolic response peaking in ∼75%. Regarding the infestation levels of Cx. pipiens, the final model explained 75% of the variability and included only the season. In view of these results, the percentage of impervious area efficiently predicted the infestation levels of Ae. aegypti but not of Cx. pipiens. Considering the worldwide relevance of the former in dengue transmission, the simple quantification of imperviousness proposed herein provides a helpful basis for vector surveillance and control in urbanized areas.

Oviposition strategies of temporary pool mosquitoes in relation to weather, tidal regime and land use in a temperate wetland.

Wetlands have traditionally been associated with harbouring mosquitoes, a well-known nuisance and vectors of diseases. Within mosquito life cycle, oviposition is a determinant event by shaping their individual fitness and vectorial capacity. The study was conducted in one of the main temperate wetlands in South America. We used Generalized Linear Models to study the relation between temperature, precipitation, tidal regime, land use, microenvironment, and the occurrence of floodwater (Ochlerotatus and Psorophora spp.) and raft-laying (Culex and Uranotaenia spp.) mosquitoes using temporary pools as larval habitats. Pool occurrence was negatively associated with temperature, and positively related to precipitation and high tides. As regards the land use, it was lowest in domestic areas and plantations, intermediate in secondary forests, and highest in marshes. Each oviposition strategy was best modelled as a function of different environmental factors. The occurrence of floodwater mosquitoes was positively associated with high cumulative precipitation and low tide records. Raft-laying mosquitoes were related to low temperature records, while the effect of flooding varied with the land use. In view of these results, physical (water inputs and movement), chemical, and biological (egg and larval flushing, and predatory interactions) considerations are given to provide insight in the oviposition patterns of mosquitoes occurring in this complex wetland. We finally propose the generation of a tidal flow as a control measure against floodwater mosquitoes, which are the most anthropophilic in the study area.

Environmental predictors of the occurrence of ground water mosquito immatures in the Paraná Lower Delta, Argentina.

Characterizing mosquito larval habitats is essential for understanding the complex interactions between immatures and the biotic and abiotic components of their environment. Using generalized linear mixed models, we studied the environmental predictors of the presence of three ubiquitous mosquito species breeding in ground water habitats in the Paraná Lower Delta, Argentina. During a year-round survey, 34.1% of the 419 ground water habitats inspected were positive for either Culex dolosus s.l. (Lynch Arribálzaga 1891), Aedes crinifer (Theobald 1903), or Culex intrincatus Brèthes 1916. Univariate analysis showed that the former two occurred throughout the year, whereas the latter during the summer and fall. Ae. crinifer and Cx. intrincatus were more frequently collected in secondary forests, whereas Cx. dolosus s.l. was homogeneously distributed among land uses. Best generalized linear mixed models included the sampling period and landscape variables in different combinations for each species. Spatial dependence of the data was evident for Cx. dolosus s.l. and Ae. crinifer. Our results showed that the most widespread species presented different spatio-temporal distribution patterns, related with land use, anthropic intervention, and seasonality, highlighting the complexity of the wetland under study. This methodological approach could aid in the selection of priority areas for vector control and disease risk management.

Spatial distribution pattern of oviposition in the mosquito Aedes aegypti in relation to urbanization in Buenos Aires: southern fringe bionomics of an introduced vector.

The distribution of Aedes aegypti (L) (Diptera: Culicidae) oviposition in Buenos Aires City is spatially heterogeneous. Oviposition activity was monitored for a year with a grid of 279 traps at 850-m intervals that were serviced weekly. Geostatistics were used for the spatial analysis and generalized linear regression to model oviposition as a function of demographic and environmental variables. The proportion of weeks infested and the total number of eggs showed spatial continuity and were higher in areas that had higher densities of houses and were closer to industrial sites; they were lower in areas with higher human populations or higher densities of flats. When all sites were considered, the spatial structure showed a strong trend, but after regression, the residuals presented lower spatial dependence. When only infested sites were considered, the oviposition variables were spatially autocorrelated and the regression residuals showed little or no spatial dependence. The spatial pattern of Ae. aegypti oviposition in a highly urbanized city such as Buenos Aires seems to be related to the urbanization gradient. These urban environments might present different resource availability or continuity between patches of resources.

Spatial and temporal analysis of the distribution of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in Buenos Aires Province, and its relation to rodent distribution, agricultural and demographic variables.

We studied the spatial and temporal distribution of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) cases from 1998 to 2001 in the Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. HPS is a severe viral disease whose natural reservoir are rodents of the subfamily Sigmodontinae (Muridae) and which occurs in many countries of South and North America. We considered two spatial arrangements: cells of 18.5 x 18.5 km(2); and departments, the political subdivisions of the province, as spatial units. We tested the departure from a Poisson distribution of the number of cases per cell and per month with the Variance/Mean index, while the interaction between spatial and temporal clustering was tested by means of the Knox and Mantel tests. We constructed probability maps in which the HPS rates per department were considered Poisson variates according to population, area and the product of population and area. We analysed the relation between rodent distribution, environmental and demographic variables and HPS cases conducting preliminary univariate analysis from which we selected variables to enter in general linearized models. We found that both the spatial and temporal distribution of cases is strongly aggregated. The spatiotemporal interaction appears to be related to a strong seasonality and the existence of particular ecological conditions rather than epidemic transmission of the disease. The main explanatory variables for the distribution of HPS cases among the departments of the Buenos Aires Province were human population, the distribution of the rodent Oxymycterus rufus and evapotranspiration. The last two variables are probably indicators of favourable ecological conditions for the reservoirs, which encompass other variables not taken into account in this study.

Dengue transmission risk maps of Argentina.

Dengue is an emerging disease that has become important in Argentina because of its vector's presence (Aedes aegypti) and its endemicity in neighbouring countries. Thematic maps were built for Argentina considering four main factors: population susceptibility to dengue virus infection (population density); entrance of the virus from endemic countries (main roads and airports); conditions for the vector (urbanization, altitude, minimum, maximum and mean daily temperatures) and virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP) completion in the mosquito before its death. EIP duration was modelled with a temperature-dependent function and considering life expectancies of 10, 15 and 20 days for the adult mosquito. The results show maximum risk of dengue transmission in the northern and north-eastern part of the country year-round and in the centre during the summer. Although life expectancy of the adult mosquito has a considerable influence on EIP completion, the north-east to south-west decreasing gradient is maintained. Assuming 20-day life expectancy, the EIP would be completed in almost any region of the country; whereas with 15-day life expectancy it would be limited to vector distribution area, and at 10 days it would be restricted to the northern extreme of the country.

Atmospheric control of Aedes aegypti populations in Buenos Aires (Argentina) and its variability.

The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the main urban vector responsible for the transmission of dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever. The city of Buenos Aires, Argentina, is located at the southern end of the world distribution of the species. The population abundance of Ae. aegypti is mainly regulated by environmental factors. We calculated the potential number of times that a female could lay eggs during its mean life expectancy, based on potential egg production and daily meteorological records. The model considers those variables implying physical hazard to the survival of Ae. aegypti, mosquito flying activity and oviposition. The results, obtained after calibration and validation of the model with field observations, show significant correlation (P<0.001) for different lags depending on the life stage. From these results, more favorable atmospheric conditions for Ae. aegypti reproduction (linked to the urban climatic change) can be observed. The climatic variability in the last decade resembles conditions at the end of 19th century.