Characterising information gains and losses when collecting multiple epidemic model outputs.

BACKGROUND: Collaborative comparisons and combinations of epidemic models are used as policy-relevant evidence during epidemic outbreaks. In the process of collecting multiple model projections, such collaborations may gain or lose relevant information. Typically, modellers contribute a probabilistic summary at each time-step. We compared this to directly collecting simulated trajectories. We aimed to explore information on key epidemic quantities; ensemble uncertainty; and performance against data, investigating potential to continuously gain information from a single cross-sectional collection of model results. METHODS: We compared projections from the European COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub. Five teams modelled incidence in Belgium, the Netherlands, and Spain. We compared July 2022 projections by incidence, peaks, and cumulative totals. We created a probabilistic ensemble drawn from all trajectories, and compared to ensembles from a median across each model's quantiles, or a linear opinion pool. We measured the predictive accuracy of individual trajectories against observations, using this in a weighted ensemble. We repeated this sequentially against increasing weeks of observed data. We evaluated these ensembles to reflect performance with varying observed data. RESULTS: By collecting modelled trajectories, we showed policy-relevant epidemic characteristics. Trajectories contained a right-skewed distribution well represented by an ensemble of trajectories or a linear opinion pool, but not models' quantile intervals. Ensembles weighted by performance typically retained the range of plausible incidence over time, and in some cases narrowed this by excluding some epidemic shapes. CONCLUSIONS: We observed several information gains from collecting modelled trajectories rather than quantile distributions, including potential for continuously updated information from a single model collection. The value of information gains and losses may vary with each collaborative effort's aims, depending on the needs of projection users. Understanding the differing information potential of methods to collect model projections can support the accuracy, sustainability, and communication of collaborative infectious disease modelling efforts.

Corrigendum: Simulation of COVID-19 propagation scenarios in the Madrid metropolitan area.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.636023.].

Computer-aided diagnostic for classifying chest X-ray images using deep ensemble learning.

BACKGROUND: Nowadays doctors and radiologists are overwhelmed with a huge amount of work. This led to the effort to design different Computer-Aided Diagnosis systems (CAD system), with the aim of accomplishing a faster and more accurate diagnosis. The current development of deep learning is a big opportunity for the development of new CADs. In this paper, we propose a novel architecture for a convolutional neural network (CNN) ensemble for classifying chest X-ray (CRX) images into four classes: viral Pneumonia, Tuberculosis, COVID-19, and Healthy. Although Computed tomography (CT) is the best way to detect and diagnoses pulmonary issues, CT is more expensive than CRX. Furthermore, CRX is commonly the first step in the diagnosis, so it's very important to be accurate in the early stages of diagnosis and treatment. RESULTS: We applied the transfer learning technique and data augmentation to all CNNs for obtaining better performance. We have designed and evaluated two different CNN-ensembles: Stacking and Voting. This system is ready to be applied in a CAD system to automated diagnosis such a second or previous opinion before the doctors or radiology's. Our results show a great improvement, 99% accuracy of the Stacking Ensemble and 98% of accuracy for the the Voting Ensemble. CONCLUSIONS: To minimize missclassifications, we included six different base CNN models in our architecture (VGG16, VGG19, InceptionV3, ResNet101V2, DenseNet121 and CheXnet) and it could be extended to any number as well as we expect extend the number of diseases to detected. The proposed method has been validated using a large dataset created by mixing several public datasets with different image sizes and quality. As we demonstrate in the evaluation carried out, we reach better results and generalization compared with previous works. In addition, we make a first approach to explainable deep learning with the objective of providing professionals more information that may be valuable when evaluating CRXs.

[Impact of vaccination against COVID-19 in children aged 5-11 years: a mathematical model.] / Estimación del impacto de la vacunación frente a la COVID-19 en la población infantil de 5-11 años.

On November 25, 2021, the European Medicines Agency (EMA) authorized the presentation of Comirnaty vaccine (Pfizer-Biontech) for children between 5 and 11 years of age. In our country, this vaccination began on December 15, after it was approved by the Public Health Commission. A mathematical model has been developed to evaluate the possible impact of this vaccination and contribute to assessing the risk-benefit balance. The model parameters were adjusted including all those characteristics that may influence the impact of childhood vaccination. The results indicate this vaccination involves a significant reduction in the number of infections, and to a lesser extent in the number of hospitalizations and deaths. This reduction will be more important in a future epidemic wave, when this population has been fully vaccinated. Mathematical models can be very powerful tools to predict the impact of vaccination in different epidemiological situations, and help to adjust vaccination programs to be more efficient.

El 25 de noviembre de 2021 la Agencia Europea del Medicamento (EMA) autorizó la vacuna Comirnaty (Pfizer-Biontech) en su presentación infantil para la población entre 5 y 11 años de edad. En nuestro país esta campaña se inició el 15 de diciembre, tras su aprobación por la Comisión de Salud Pública. Se ha desarrollado un modelo matemático para evaluar el posible impacto de la vacunación en esta población y contribuir a evaluar el balance riesgo-beneficio. Se ajustaron los parámetros del modelo original incluyendo todas aquellas características que pueden influir en el impacto de la vacunación infantil. Los resultados indican que vacunar a esta población supone una reducción destacable en el número de infecciones, y en menor medida, en el número de hospitalizaciones y fallecimientos. Esta reducción será más importante en una onda epidémica futura, cuando la población infantil ya esté vacunada con la pauta completa. Los modelos matemáticos pueden ser herramientas muy potentes para predecir el impacto de la vacunación en diferentes situaciones epidemiológicas, y ayudar a ajustar los programas de vacunación para que sean más eficientes.

Evaluation of vaccination strategies for the metropolitan area of Madrid via agent-based simulation.

OBJECTIVE: We analyse the impact of different vaccination strategies on the propagation of COVID-19 within the Madrid metropolitan area, starting on 27 December 2020 and ending in Summer of 2021. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The predictions are based on simulation using EpiGraph, an agent-based COVID-19 simulator. We first summarise the different models implemented in the simulator, then provide a comprehensive description of the vaccination model and define different vaccination strategies. The simulator-including the vaccination model-is validated by comparing its results with real data from the metropolitan area of Madrid during the third COVID-19 wave. This work considers different COVID-19 propagation scenarios for a simulated population of about 5 million. RESULTS: The main result shows that the best strategy is to vaccinate first the elderly with the two doses spaced 56 days apart; this approach reduces the final infection rate by an additional 6% and the number of deaths by an additional 3% with respect to vaccinating first the elderly at the interval recommended by the vaccine producer. The reason is the increase in the number of vaccinated individuals at any time during the simulation. CONCLUSION: The existing level of detail and maturity of EpiGraph allowed us to evaluate complex scenarios and thus use it successfully to help guide the strategy for the COVID-19 vaccination campaign of the Spanish health authorities.

Assessing population-sampling strategies for reducing the COVID-19 incidence.

As long as critical levels of vaccination have not been reached to ensure heard immunity, and new SARS-CoV-2 strains are developing, the only realistic way to reduce the infection speed in a population is to track the infected individuals before they pass on the virus. Testing the population via sampling has shown good results in slowing the epidemic spread. Sampling can be implemented at different times during the epidemic and may be done either per individual or for combined groups of people at a time. The work we present here makes two main contributions. We first extend and refine our scalable agent-based COVID-19 simulator to incorporate an improved socio-demographic model which considers professions, as well as a more realistic population mixing model based on contact matrices per country. These extensions are necessary to develop and test various sampling strategies in a scenario including the 62 largest cities in Spain; this is our second contribution. As part of the evaluation, we also analyze the impact of different parameters, such as testing frequency, quarantine time, percentage of quarantine breakers, or group testing, on sampling efficacy. Our results show that the most effective strategies are pooling, rapid antigen test campaigns, and requiring negative testing for access to public areas. The effectiveness of all these strategies can be greatly increased by reducing the number of contacts for infected individual.

Detection and analysis of COVID-19 in medical images using deep learning techniques.

The main purpose of this work is to investigate and compare several deep learning enhanced techniques applied to X-ray and CT-scan medical images for the detection of COVID-19. In this paper, we used four powerful pre-trained CNN models, VGG16, DenseNet121, ResNet50,and ResNet152, for the COVID-19 CT-scan binary classification task. The proposed Fast.AI ResNet framework was designed to find out the best architecture, pre-processing, and training parameters for the models largely automatically. The accuracy and F1-score were both above 96% in the diagnosis of COVID-19 using CT-scan images. In addition, we applied transfer learning techniques to overcome the insufficient data and to improve the training time. The binary and multi-class classification of X-ray images tasks were performed by utilizing enhanced VGG16 deep transfer learning architecture. High accuracy of 99% was achieved by enhanced VGG16 in the detection of X-ray images from COVID-19 and pneumonia. The accuracy and validity of the algorithms were assessed on X-ray and CT-scan well-known public datasets. The proposed methods have better results for COVID-19 diagnosis than other related in literature. In our opinion, our work can help virologists and radiologists to make a better and faster diagnosis in the struggle against the outbreak of COVID-19.

Simulation of COVID-19 Propagation Scenarios in the Madrid Metropolitan Area.

This work presents simulation results for different mitigation and confinement scenarios for the propagation of COVID-19 in the metropolitan area of Madrid. These scenarios were implemented and tested using EpiGraph, an epidemic simulator which has been extended to simulate COVID-19 propagation. EpiGraph implements a social interaction model, which realistically captures a large number of characteristics of individuals and groups, as well as their individual interconnections, which are extracted from connection patterns in social networks. Besides the epidemiological and social interaction components, it also models people's short and long-distance movements as part of a transportation model. These features, together with the capacity to simulate scenarios with millions of individuals and apply different contention and mitigation measures, gives EpiGraph the potential to reproduce the COVID-19 evolution and study medium-term effects of the virus when applying mitigation methods. EpiGraph, obtains closely aligned infected and death curves related to the first wave in the Madrid metropolitan area, achieving similar seroprevalence values. We also show that selective lockdown for people over 60 would reduce the number of deaths. In addition, evaluate the effect of the use of face masks after the first wave, which shows that the percentage of people that comply with mask use is a crucial factor for mitigating the infection's spread.

Evaluating the impact of the weather conditions on the influenza propagation.

BACKGROUND: Predicting the details of how an epidemic evolves is highly valuable as health institutions need to better plan towards limiting the infection propagation effects and optimizing their prediction and response capabilities. Simulation is a cost- and time-effective way of predicting the evolution of the infection as the joint influence of many different factors: interaction patterns, personal characteristics, travel patterns, meteorological conditions, previous vaccination, etc. The work presented in this paper extends EpiGraph, our influenza epidemic simulator, by introducing a meteorological model as a modular component that interacts with the rest of EpiGraph's modules to refine our previous simulation results. Our goal is to estimate the effects of changes in temperature and relative humidity on the patterns of epidemic influenza based on data provided by the Spanish Influenza Sentinel Surveillance System (SISSS) and the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET). METHODS: Our meteorological model is based on the regression model developed by AB and JS, and it is tuned with influenza surveillance data obtained from SISSS. After pre-processing this data to clean it and reconstruct missing samples, we obtain new values for the reproduction number of each urban region in Spain, every 10 minutes during 2011. We simulate the propagation of the influenza by setting the date of the epidemic onset and the initial influenza-illness rates for each urban region. RESULTS: We show that the simulation results have the same propagation shape as the weekly influenza rates as recorded by SISSS. We perform experiments for a realistic scenario based on actual meteorological data from 2010-2011, and for synthetic values assumed under simplified predicted climate change conditions. Results show that a diminishing relative humidity of 10% produces an increment of about 1.6% in the final infection rate. The effect of temperature changes on the infection spread is also noticeable, with a decrease of 1.1% per extra degree. CONCLUSIONS: Using a tool like ours could help predict the shape of developing epidemics and its peaks, and would permit to quickly run scenarios to determine the evolution of the epidemic under different conditions. We make EpiGraph source code and epidemic data publicly available.

GPU-accelerated iterative reconstruction for limited-data tomography in CBCT systems.

BACKGROUND: Standard cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) involves the acquisition of at least 360 projections rotating through 360 degrees. Nevertheless, there are cases in which only a few projections can be taken in a limited angular span, such as during surgery, where rotation of the source-detector pair is limited to less than 180 degrees. Reconstruction of limited data with the conventional method proposed by Feldkamp, Davis and Kress (FDK) results in severe artifacts. Iterative methods may compensate for the lack of data by including additional prior information, although they imply a high computational burden and memory consumption. RESULTS: We present an accelerated implementation of an iterative method for CBCT following the Split Bregman formulation, which reduces computational time through GPU-accelerated kernels. The implementation enables the reconstruction of large volumes (>10243 pixels) using partitioning strategies in forward- and back-projection operations. We evaluated the algorithm on small-animal data for different scenarios with different numbers of projections, angular span, and projection size. Reconstruction time varied linearly with the number of projections and quadratically with projection size but remained almost unchanged with angular span. Forward- and back-projection operations represent 60% of the total computational burden. CONCLUSION: Efficient implementation using parallel processing and large-memory management strategies together with GPU kernels enables the use of advanced reconstruction approaches which are needed in limited-data scenarios. Our GPU implementation showed a significant time reduction (up to 48 ×) compared to a CPU-only implementation, resulting in a total reconstruction time from several hours to few minutes.

FUX-Sim: Implementation of a fast universal simulation/reconstruction framework for X-ray systems.

The availability of digital X-ray detectors, together with advances in reconstruction algorithms, creates an opportunity for bringing 3D capabilities to conventional radiology systems. The downside is that reconstruction algorithms for non-standard acquisition protocols are generally based on iterative approaches that involve a high computational burden. The development of new flexible X-ray systems could benefit from computer simulations, which may enable performance to be checked before expensive real systems are implemented. The development of simulation/reconstruction algorithms in this context poses three main difficulties. First, the algorithms deal with large data volumes and are computationally expensive, thus leading to the need for hardware and software optimizations. Second, these optimizations are limited by the high flexibility required to explore new scanning geometries, including fully configurable positioning of source and detector elements. And third, the evolution of the various hardware setups increases the effort required for maintaining and adapting the implementations to current and future programming models. Previous works lack support for completely flexible geometries and/or compatibility with multiple programming models and platforms. In this paper, we present FUX-Sim, a novel X-ray simulation/reconstruction framework that was designed to be flexible and fast. Optimized implementation for different families of GPUs (CUDA and OpenCL) and multi-core CPUs was achieved thanks to a modularized approach based on a layered architecture and parallel implementation of the algorithms for both architectures. A detailed performance evaluation demonstrates that for different system configurations and hardware platforms, FUX-Sim maximizes performance with the CUDA programming model (5 times faster than other state-of-the-art implementations). Furthermore, the CPU and OpenCL programming models allow FUX-Sim to be executed over a wide range of hardware platforms.

Cross Layer Adaptation of Check intervals in low power listening MAC protocols for lifetime improvement in Wireless Sensor Networks.

Preamble sampling-based MAC protocols designed for Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN) are aimed at prolonging the lifetime of the nodes by scheduling their times of activity. This scheduling exploits node synchronization to find the right trade-off between energy consumption and delay. In this paper we consider the problem of node synchronization in preamble sampling protocols. We propose Cross Layer Adaptation of Check intervals (CLAC), a novel protocol intended to reduce the energy consumption of the nodes without significantly increasing the delay. Our protocol modifies the scheduling of the nodes based on estimating the delay experienced by a packet that travels along a multi-hop path. CLAC uses routing and MAC layer information to compute a delay that matches the packet arrival time. We have implemented CLAC on top of well-known routing and MAC protocols for WSN, and we have evaluated our implementation using the Avrora simulator. The simulation results confirm that CLAC improves the network lifetime at no additional packet loss and without affecting the end-to-end delay.

Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics.

BACKGROUND: To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. RESULTS: We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH), with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. CONCLUSIONS: This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values predicted by our simulator match real data from NYSDOH. Our results show that our simulator can be a useful tool in understanding the differences in the evolution of an epidemic within populations with different characteristics and can provide guidance with regard to which, and how many, individuals should be vaccinated to slow down the virus propagation and reduce the number of infections.