Prevalence of Respiratory Viral Infections in Deceased Persons during the COVID-19 Pandemic Season 2021-2022: A Population-Based Observational Study.

Although the omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 circulated intensely during the 2021-2022 season, many patients with severe acute respiratory disease tested negative for COVID-19. The aim of this study was to assess the presence of different respiratory viruses in deceased persons. The proportion of deceased persons with respiratory viral infections in the 2021-2022 season in Navarre, Spain, was estimated considering all deaths caused by confirmed COVID-19 according to the epidemiological surveillance and the results of multiplex PCR tests for respiratory viruses performed in a sample of deceased persons with a cause of death other than COVID-19. Of 3578 deaths, 324 (9.1%) were initially reported as caused by pre-mortem confirmed COVID-19. A sample of 242 persons who died by causes other than COVID-19 were tested post-mortem; 64 (26.4%) of them were positive for any respiratory virus: 11.2% for SARS-CoV-2, 5.8% for rhinovirus, 3.7% for human coronavirus, 2.5% for metapneumovirus, 1.7% for respiratory syncytial virus, 1.7% for parainfluenza, 1.2% for influenza, and less than 1% each for adenovirus and bocavirus. Combining both approaches, we estimated that 34.4% of all deceased persons during the study period had a respiratory viral infection and 19.2% had SARS-CoV-2. Only 33.3% (9/27) of SARS-CoV-2 and 5.0% (2/40) of other viruses detected post-mortem had previously been confirmed pre-mortem. In a period with very intense circulation of SARS-CoV-2 during the pandemic, other respiratory viruses were also frequently present in deceased persons. Some SARS-CoV-2 infections and most other viral infections were not diagnosed pre-mortem. Several respiratory viruses may contribute to excess mortality in winter.

Effectiveness of Nirsevimab Immunoprophylaxis Administered at Birth to Prevent Infant Hospitalisation for Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infection: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection is a frequent cause of hospitalisation in the first few months of life; however, this risk rapidly decreases with age. Nirsevimab immunoprophylaxis was approved in the European Union for the prevention of RSV-associated lower respiratory tract disease in infants during their first RSV season. We evaluated the effectiveness of nirsevimab in preventing hospitalisations for confirmed RSV infection and the impact of a strategy of immunisation at birth. A population-based cohort study was performed in Navarre, Spain, where nirsevimab was offered at birth to all children born from October to December 2023. Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratio of hospitalisation for PCR-confirmed RSV infection between infants who received and did not receive nirsevimab. Of 1177 infants studied, 1083 (92.0%) received nirsevimab. The risk of hospitalisation for RSV was 8.5% (8/94) among non-immunised infants versus 0.7% (8/1083) in those that were immunised. The estimated effectiveness of nirsevimab was 88.7% (95% confidence interval, 69.6-95.8). Immunisation at birth of infants born between October and December 2023 prevented one hospitalisation for every 15.3 immunised infants. Immunisation of children born from September to January might prevent 77.5% of preventable hospitalisations for RSV in infants born in 2023-2024. These results support the recommendation of nirsevimab immunisation at birth to children born during the RSV epidemic or in the months immediately before to prevent severe RSV infections and alleviate the overload of paediatric hospital resources.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 BA.1/BA.2 lineages among adults and adolescents in a multicentre primary care study, Europe, December 2021 to June 2022.

BackgroundScarce European data in early 2021 suggested lower vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 Omicron lineages than previous variants.AimWe aimed to estimate primary series (PS) and first booster VE against symptomatic BA.1/BA.2 infection and investigate potential biases.MethodsThis European test-negative multicentre study tested primary care patients with acute respiratory symptoms for SARS-CoV-2 in the BA.1/BA.2-dominant period. We estimated PS and booster VE among adults and adolescents (PS only) for all products combined and for Comirnaty alone, by time since vaccination, age and chronic condition. We investigated potential bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination and explored effect modification and confounding by prior SARS-CoV-2 infection.ResultsAmong adults, PS VE was 37% (95% CI: 24-47%) overall and 60% (95% CI: 44-72%), 43% (95% CI: 26-55%) and 29% (95% CI: 13-43%) < 90, 90-179 and ≥ 180 days post vaccination, respectively. Booster VE was 42% (95% CI: 32-51%) overall and 56% (95% CI: 47-64%), 22% (95% CI: 2-38%) and 3% (95% CI: -78% to 48%), respectively. Primary series VE was similar among adolescents. Restricting analyses to Comirnaty had little impact. Vaccine effectiveness was higher among older adults. There was no signal of bias due to correlation between COVID-19 and influenza vaccination. Confounding by previous infection was low, but sample size precluded definite assessment of effect modification.ConclusionPrimary series and booster VE against symptomatic infection with BA.1/BA.2 ranged from 37% to 42%, with similar waning post vaccination. Comprehensive data on previous SARS-CoV-2 infection would help disentangle vaccine- and infection-induced immunity.

Hospitalisations and Deaths Averted by COVID-19 Vaccination in Navarre, Spain, 2021-2022.

In 2021-2022, most of the Spanish population received COVID-19 vaccines and a high proportion of them had SARS-CoV-2 infection. We estimated the rate of hospitalisations and deaths that were averted by risk reduction among vaccinated COVID-19 cases. Hospitalisations and deaths were analysed among COVID-19 cases confirmed in 2021 and 2022 in Navarre, Spain. To calculate the number of prevented outcomes by sex, age, comorbidities, and semester, the difference in the risk of each outcome between unvaccinated and vaccinated cases was multiplied by the number of vaccinated cases. COVID-19 vaccination coverage with any dose reached 88%, 86% with full vaccination, and 56% with a booster dose. The cumulative rates per 1000 inhabitants were 382 COVID-19 confirmed cases, 6.70 hospitalisations, and 1.15 deaths from COVID-19. The estimated rates of prevented events by vaccination were 16.33 hospitalisations and 3.39 deaths per 1000 inhabitants, which was 70.9% and 74.7% of expected events without vaccination, respectively. People aged 80 years and older or with major chronic conditions accounted for the majority of hospitalizations and deaths prevented by COVID-19 vaccination. One hospitalisation and death due to COVID-19 were averted for every 53 and 258 people vaccinated, respectively. The high COVID-19 vaccine effect in reducing the risk of severe outcomes and the high vaccination coverage in risk populations prevented three out of four hospitalisations and deaths due to COVID-19 during a period of intense circulation of SARS-CoV-2.

Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness in Preventing Laboratory-Confirmed Influenza Cases and Hospitalizations in Navarre, Spain, 2022-2023.

We estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) in preventing outpatient and hospitalized cases in the 2022-2023 season. A test-negative design included a representative sample of outpatients and all hospitalized patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) from October 2022 to May 2023 in Navarre, Spain. ILI patients were tested by PCR for influenza virus. Influenza vaccination status was compared between confirmed influenza cases and test-negative controls. Among 3321 ILI patients tested, IVE to prevent influenza cases was 34% (95% confidence interval (CI): 16 to 48) overall, 85% (95%CI: 63 to 94) against influenza B, and 28% (95%CI: 3 to 46) against A(H3N2). Among 558 outpatients, 222 (40%) were confirmed for influenza: 55% A(H3N2), 11% A(H1N1), and 31% B. Overall, IVE to prevent outpatient cases was 48% (95%CI: 8 to 70), 88% (95%CI: 3 to 98) against influenza B, and 50% (95%CI: -4 to 76) against A(H3N2). Of 2763 hospitalized patients, 349 (13%) were positive for influenza: 64% A(H3N2), 17% A(H1N1), and 8% B. IVE to prevent hospitalization was 24% (95%CI: -1 to 42) overall, 82% (95%CI: 49 to 93) against influenza B, and 16% (95%CI: -17 to 40) against A(H3N2). No IVE was observed in preventing influenza A(H1N1). IVE was high to prevent influenza B, moderate against A(H3N2) and null against A(H1N1). A lower proportion of influenza B cases may explain the smaller IVE in hospitalized patients than in outpatients. The null IVE against A(H1N1) was consistent with the observed antigenic drift and supports the new composition of the 2023-2024 influenza vaccine.

[COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and mortality in Navarre (Spain) between February 2020 and September 2022].

BACKGROUND: Between February 2020 and September 2022, SARS-CoV-2 has circulated uninterruptedly throughout Spain. This study analyses COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in Navarre. METHODS: Enhanced epidemiological surveillance and results of seroepidemiological surveys were used to analyze COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths, based on the vaccination coverage and other preventive measures applied from February 2020 to September 2022. RESULTS: A total of 295,424 COVID-19 cases were confirmed (45% of the population in Navarre); 8,594 required hospital admission (1.3%), 832 were admitted to intensive care units (1.3‰) and 1,725 died (2.6‰). Over the first wave of the pandemic, there were 1,934 hospitalizations and 529 deaths from confirmed COVID-19 cases over a few weeks; these figures dropped rapidly following lockdown. Until October 2021, SARS-CoV-2 circulation was modulated by non-pharmacological preventive measures. The subsequent relaxation of these measures led to a wide circulation of the omicron variant, increasing the number of cases by three-fold. The high vaccination coverage against COVID-19 introduced decisive changes in the epidemiology of the disease, reducing to less than 2%, 0.1%, and 0.5% the cases requiring hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, or that died, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Initial lockdown and non-pharmacological preventive measures helped control SARS-CoV-2 transmission until vaccination was extended. Vaccination achieved a decisive reduction of the COVID-19 severity and lethality.

Effect of COVID-19 vaccination on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission among social and household close contacts: A cohort study.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 vaccination was expected to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but the relevance of this effect remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination of the index cases and their close contacts in reducing the probability of SARS-CoV-2 transmission. METHODS: Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection was evaluated in two cohorts of adult close contacts of COVID-19 confirmed cases (social and household settings) by COVID-19 vaccination status of the index case and the close contact, from April to November 2021 in Navarre, Spain. The effects of vaccination of the index case and the close contact were estimated as (1-adjusted relative risk) × 100%. RESULTS: Among 19,631 social contacts, 3257 (17%) were confirmed with SARS-CoV-2. COVID-19 vaccination of the index case reduced infectiousness by 44% (95% CI, 27-57%), vaccination of the close contact reduced susceptibility by 69% (95% CI, 65-73%), and vaccination of both reduced transmissibility by 74% (95% CI, 70-78%) in social settings, suggesting some synergy of effects. Among 20,708 household contacts, 6269 (30%) were infected, and vaccine effectiveness estimates were 13% (95% CI, -5% to 28%), 61% (95% CI, 58-64%), and 52% (95% CI, 47-56%), respectively. These estimates were lower in older people and had not relevant differences between the Alpha (April-June) and Delta (July-November) variant periods. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination reduces infectiousness and susceptibility; however, these effects are insufficient for complete control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, especially in older people and household setting. Relaxation of preventive behaviors after vaccination may counteract part of the vaccine effect on transmission.

Risk reduction of hospitalisation and severe disease in vaccinated COVID-19 cases during the SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron BA.1-predominant period, Navarre, Spain, January to March 2022.

BackgroundAs COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection was lower for cases of the Omicron vs the Delta variant, understanding the effect of vaccination in reducing risk of hospitalisation and severe disease among COVID-19 cases is crucial.AimTo evaluate risk reduction of hospitalisation and severe disease in vaccinated COVID-19 cases during the Omicron BA.1-predominant period in Navarre, Spain.MethodsA case-to-case comparison included COVID-19 epidemiological surveillance data in adults ≥ 18 years from 3 January-20 March 2022. COVID-19 vaccination status was compared between hospitalised and non-hospitalised cases, and between severe (intensive care unit admission or death) and non-severe cases using logistic regression models.ResultsAmong 58,952 COVID-19 cases, 565 (1.0%) were hospitalised and 156 (0.3%) were severe. The risk of hospitalisation was reduced within the first 6 months after full COVID-19 vaccination (complete primary series) (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 0.06; 95% CI: 0.04-0.09) and after 6 months (aOR: 0.16; 95% CI: 0.12-0.21; pcomparison < 0.001), as well as after a booster dose (aOR: 0.06: 95% CI: 0.04-0.07). Similarly, the risk of severe disease was reduced (aOR: 0.13, 0.18, and 0.06, respectively). Compared with cases fully vaccinated 6 months or more before a positive test, those who had received a booster dose had lower risk of hospitalisation (aOR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.28-0.52) and severe disease (aOR: 0.38; 95% CI: 0.21-0.68).ConclusionsFull COVID-19 vaccination greatly reduced the risk of hospitalisation and severe outcomes in COVID-19 cases with the Omicron variant, and a booster dose improved this effect in people aged over 65 years.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness against influenza A subtypes in Europe: Results from the 2021-2022 I-MOVE primary care multicentre study.

BACKGROUND: In 2021-2022, influenza A viruses dominated in Europe. The I-MOVE primary care network conducted a multicentre test-negative study to measure influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE). METHODS: Primary care practitioners collected information on patients presenting with acute respiratory infection. Cases were influenza A(H3N2) or A(H1N1)pdm09 RT-PCR positive, and controls were influenza virus negative. We calculated VE using logistic regression, adjusting for study site, age, sex, onset date, and presence of chronic conditions. RESULTS: Between week 40 2021 and week 20 2022, we included over 11 000 patients of whom 253 and 1595 were positive for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2), respectively. Overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 75% (95% CI: 43-89) and 81% (95% CI: 45-93) among those aged 15-64 years. Overall VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 29% (95% CI: 12-42) and 25% (95% CI: -41 to 61), 33% (95% CI: 14-49), and 26% (95% CI: -22 to 55) among those aged 0-14, 15-64, and over 65 years, respectively. The A(H3N2) VE among the influenza vaccination target group was 20% (95% CI: -6 to 39). All 53 sequenced A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses belonged to clade 6B.1A.5a.1. Among 410 sequenced influenza A(H3N2) viruses, all but eight belonged to clade 3C.2a1b.2a.2. DISCUSSION: Despite antigenic mismatch between vaccine and circulating strains for influenza A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09, 2021-2022 VE estimates against circulating influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 were the highest within the I-MOVE network since the 2009 influenza pandemic. VE against A(H3N2) was lower than A(H1N1)pdm09, but at least one in five individuals vaccinated against influenza were protected against presentation to primary care with laboratory-confirmed influenza.

Comparison of the Risk of Hospitalization and Severe Disease Among Co-circulating Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants.

BACKGROUND: We compare the risk of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes among co-circulating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants between January 2021 and May 2022 in Navarra, Spain. METHODS: We compared the frequency of hospitalization and severe disease (intensive care unit admission or death) due to COVID-19 among the co-circulating variants. Variants analyzed were nonvariants of concern (non-VOCs), Alpha, Delta, Omicron BA.1, and Omicron BA.2. Logistic regression models were used to estimate adjusted odds ratio (aOR). RESULTS: The Alpha variant had a higher risk of hospitalization (aOR, 1.86 [95 confidence interval {CI}, 1.282.71]) and severe disease (aOR, 2.40 [95 CI, 1.314.40]) than non-VOCs. The Delta variant did not show a significantly different risk of hospitalization (aOR, 0.73 [95 CI, .401.30]) and severe disease (aOR, 3.04 [95 CI, .5716.22]) compared to the Alpha variant. The Omicron BA.1 significantly reduced both risks relative to the Delta variant (aORs, 0.28 [95 CI, .16.47] and 0.23 [95 CI, .12.46], respectively). The Omicron BA.2 reduced the risk of hospitalization compared to BA.1 (aOR, 0.52 [95 CI, .29.95]). CONCLUSIONS: The Alpha and Delta variants showed an increased risk of hospitalization and severe disease, which decreased considerably with the Omicron BA.1 and BA.2. Surveillance of variants can lead to important differences in severity.

Seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 and risk of COVID-19 in Navarre, Spain, May to July 2022.

In Navarre, Spain, in May 2022, the seroprevalence of anti-nucleocapsid (N) and anti-spike (S) antibodies of SARS-CoV-2 was 58.9% and 92.7%, respectively. The incidence of confirmed COVID-19 thereafter through July was lower in people with anti-N antibodies (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.08; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.05-0.13) but not with anti-S antibodies (aOR = 1.06; 95% CI: 0.47-2.38). Hybrid immunity, including anti-N antibodies induced by natural exposure to SARS-CoV-2, seems essential in preventing Omicron COVID-19 cases.

Effectiveness of influenza vaccination in preventing influenza in primary care, Navarre, Spain, 2021/22.

Compared with individuals unvaccinated in the current and three previous influenza seasons, in 2021/22, influenza vaccine effectiveness at primary care level was 37% (95% CI: 16 to 52) for current season vaccination, regardless of previous doses, and 35% (95% CI: -3 to 45) for only previous seasons vaccination. Against influenza A(H3N2), estimates were 39% (95% CI: 16 to 55) and 24% (95% CI: -8 to 47) suggesting moderate effectiveness of current season vaccination and possible remaining effect of prior vaccinations.

Effectiveness of complete primary vaccination against COVID-19 at primary care and community level during predominant Delta circulation in Europe: multicentre analysis, I-MOVE-COVID-19 and ECDC networks, July to August 2021.

IntroductionIn July and August 2021, the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant dominated in Europe.AimUsing a multicentre test-negative study, we measured COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against symptomatic infection.MethodsIndividuals with COVID-19 or acute respiratory symptoms at primary care/community level in 10 European countries were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We measured complete primary course overall VE by vaccine brand and by time since vaccination.ResultsOverall VE was 74% (95% CI: 69-79), 76% (95% CI: 71-80), 63% (95% CI: 48-75) and 63% (95% CI: 16-83) among those aged 30-44, 45-59, 60-74 and ≥ 75 years, respectively. VE among those aged 30-59 years was 78% (95% CI: 75-81), 66% (95% CI: 58-73), 91% (95% CI: 87-94) and 52% (95% CI: 40-61), for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria, Spikevax and COVID-19 Vaccine Janssen, respectively. VE among people 60 years and older was 67% (95% CI: 52-77), 65% (95% CI: 48-76) and 83% (95% CI: 64-92) for Comirnaty, Vaxzevria and Spikevax, respectively. Comirnaty VE among those aged 30-59 years was 87% (95% CI: 83-89) at 14-29 days and 65% (95% CI: 56-71%) at ≥ 90 days between vaccination and onset of symptoms.ConclusionsVE against symptomatic infection with the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant varied among brands, ranging from 52% to 91%. While some waning of the vaccine effect may be present (sample size limited this analysis to only Comirnaty), protection was 65% at 90 days or more between vaccination and onset.

Differences in Transmission between SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (B.1.1.7) and Delta (B.1.617.2) Variants.

The present study aimed to compare the susceptibility and infectivity between the Alpha and Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2 and to investigate characteristics of the index case and the contact that may affect transmission. The risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was compared between close contacts of COVID-19 cases with Alpha and Delta variants during June 2021 to August 2021. In index cases, Spike gene target failure (TaqPath) was used as a proxy of Alpha variant and the L452R mutation (TaqMan) for Delta variant. Cox regression models were used to estimate adjusted relative risks (RR). We compared close contacts of index cases with Alpha (n = 2139) and Delta variants (n = 5439). Delta variant was more transmissible overall (relative risk [RR] 1.32, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.53), and in non-household contacts (RR 1.71, 95% CI = 1.35 to 2.16), but not in household contacts (RR 1.10, 95% CI = 0.91 to 1.34; Pinteraction < 0.001). Delta variant excess transmission was observed when the index cases were 12 to 39 years old (RR 1.51, 95% CI = 1.27 to 1.79) and the close contacts were 18 to 39 years old (RR 1.62, 95% CI = 1.29 to 2.03), but not among those younger or older than such ages. Differences in transmissibility between variants disappeared with vaccination of the index case (RR 0.68, 95% CI = 0.46 to 1.02), but not with vaccination of the close contact. This report shows that the Delta variant is more transmissible than Alpha variant mainly among young adults. Vaccination of the index cases reduced the excess transmission, which reinforces the recommendation of vaccination to reduce transmission of the Delta variant. IMPORTANCE The higher transmissibility of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in comparison with the Alpha variant has been reported. We compared the transmission of the Alpha and Delta variants by characteristics and COVID-19 vaccination status of index cases and their close contacts. Interestingly, the Delta variant showed increased transmissibility when the index case was an adolescent or young adult and when the close contact was a young adult; however, in index cases and close contacts of other age groups, transmission did not differ between variants. This may explain the increased proportion of young people who have been infected in the surges due to the Delta variant. The Delta variant was more transmissible than the Alpha variant when the index cases were unvaccinated against COVID-19, and their vaccination equaled the transmissibility of both variants, which suggests a higher impact of vaccination in controlling transmission of the Delta variant.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and influenza vaccination effect in preventing outpatient and inpatient influenza cases.

Evidence of influenza vaccine effectiveness in preventing confirmed influenza among persons diagnosed with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is scarce. We assessed the average effect of influenza vaccination in the current and prior seasons in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in COPD patients. We carried out a pooled test-negative case-control design in COPD patients hospitalized or presented to primary healthcare centres with influenza-like illness who were tested for influenza in 2015/2016 to 2019/2020 seasons in Navarre, Spain. Influenza vaccination status in the current and 5 prior seasons was compared between confirmed-influenza cases and test-negative controls. Vaccination effect was compared between target patients for vaccination with and without COPD. Out of 1761 COPD patients tested, 542 (31%) were confirmed for influenza and 1219 were test-negative controls. Average effect for current-season vaccination in preventing influenza was 40% (95% CI 20-54%), and for vaccination in prior seasons only was 24% (95% CI -10 to 47%). Point estimates seemed higher in preventing outpatient cases (60% and 58%, respectively) than inpatient cases (37% and 19%, respectively), but differences were no statistically significant. Influenza vaccination effect was similar in target population with and without COPD (p = 0.339). Influenza vaccination coverage in control patients with COPD was 68.3%. A 13.7% of the influenza cases in patients with COPD could be prevented by extending the influenza vaccine coverage. Average effect of current-season influenza vaccination was moderate to prevent influenza in COPD persons. The increase of influenza vaccination coverage can still prevent COPD exacerbations.

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection and risk factors in a cohort of close contacts.

PURPOSE: Many factors might affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but their relevance is not well established. The objectives were to assess the secondary attack rate (SAR) and the risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 transmission from confirmed index cases to their close contacts in household and non-household settings. METHODS: This cohort study included the close contacts of SARS-CoV-2 infected cases confirmed between May and December 2020 in Navarre, Spain. Epidemiological and clinical variables of the index case and close contacts were collected. The SAR was calculated, and the independent effect of each variable on the transmission risk was evaluated by logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 59,900 close contacts of 20,048 index cases were studied, and 53.6% were household contacts. SAR was 34.9% overall, 46.8% in household contacts and 21.1% in non-household contacts. The risk of transmission was higher in household setting (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.96, 95% CI 2.84-3.07), from symptomatic index cases (aOR 1.50, 95% CI 1.43-1.58), immigrants (aOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.36-1.52), and increased with age. A higher susceptibility of close contacts was associated with 5-14 years of age, immigrants (aOR 1.54), very low or low-income level (aOR 1.27, and aOR, 1.17, respectively), healthcare work (aOR 1.21), and diagnosis of diabetes (aOR 1.14, 95%CI 1.03-1.25), chronic kidney disease (aOR 1.18, 95%CI 1.04-1.35), hypertension (aOR 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.19), and severe obesity (aOR 1.18, 95% CI 1.00-1.38). Transmission increased progressively from May to September 2020 as the B.1.177 variant became dominant. CONCLUSION: The risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection was considerable among close contacts of infected persons. The higher risk associated with household contacts, immigrants, older index cases, close contacts with lower income level and comorbidities should be considered to address preventive interventions.

Health and economic impact of seasonal influenza mass vaccination strategies in European settings: A mathematical modelling and cost-effectiveness analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Despite seasonal influenza vaccination programmes in most countries targeting individuals aged ≥ 65 (or ≥ 55) years and high risk-groups, significant disease burden remains. We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of 27 vaccination programmes targeting the elderly and/or children in eight European settings (n = 205.8 million). METHODS: We used an age-structured dynamic-transmission model to infer age- and (sub-)type-specific seasonal influenza virus infections calibrated to England, France, Ireland, Navarra, The Netherlands, Portugal, Scotland, and Spain between 2010/11 and 2017/18. The base-case vaccination scenario consisted of non-adjuvanted, non-high dose trivalent vaccines (TV) and no universal paediatric vaccination. We explored i) moving the elderly to "improved" (i.e., adjuvanted or high-dose) trivalent vaccines (iTV) or non-adjuvanted non-high-dose quadrivalent vaccines (QV); ii) adopting mass paediatric vaccination with TV or QV; and iii) combining the elderly and paediatric strategies. We estimated setting-specific costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained from the healthcare perspective, and discounted QALYs at 3.0%. RESULTS: In the elderly, the estimated numbers of infection per 100,000 population are reduced by a median of 261.5 (range across settings: 154.4, 475.7) when moving the elderly to iTV and by 150.8 (77.6, 262.3) when moving them to QV. Through indirect protection, adopting mass paediatric programmes with 25% uptake achieves similar reductions in the elderly of 233.6 using TV (range: 58.9, 425.6) or 266.5 using QV (65.7, 477.9), with substantial health gains from averted infections across ages. At €35,000/QALY gained, moving the elderly to iTV plus adopting mass paediatric QV programmes provides the highest mean net benefits and probabilities of being cost-effective in all settings and paediatric coverage levels. CONCLUSION: Given the direct and indirect protection, and depending on the vaccine prices, model results support a combination of having moved the elderly to an improved vaccine and adopting universal paediatric vaccination programmes across the European settings.

Product-specific COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against secondary infection in close contacts, Navarre, Spain, April to August 2021.

COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness by product (two doses Comirnaty, Spikevax or Vaxzevria and one of Janssen), against infection ranged from 50% (95% CI: 42 to 57) for Janssen to 86% (70 to 93) for Vaxzevria-Comirnaty combination; among ≥ 60 year-olds, from 17% (-26 to 45) for Janssen to 68% (48 to 80) for Spikevax; and against hospitalisation from 74% (43 to 88) for Janssen to > 90% for other products. Two doses of vaccine were highly effective against hospitalisation, but suboptimal for infection control.

Simple models to include influenza vaccination history when evaluating the effect of influenza vaccination.

BackgroundMost reports of influenza vaccine effectiveness consider current-season vaccination only.AimWe evaluated a method to estimate the effect of influenza vaccinations (EIV) considering vaccination history.MethodsWe used a test-negative design with well-documented vaccination history to evaluate the average EIV over eight influenza seasons (2011/12-2018/19; n = 10,356). Modifying effect was considered as difference in effects of vaccination in current and previous seasons and current-season vaccination only. We also explored differences between current-season estimates excluding from the reference category people vaccinated in any of the five previous seasons and estimates without this exclusion or only for one or three previous seasons.ResultsThe EIV was 50%, 45% and 38% in people vaccinated in the current season who had previously received none, one to two and three to five doses, respectively, and it was 30% and 43% for one to two and three to five prior doses only. Vaccination in at least three previous seasons reduced the effect of current-season vaccination by 12 percentage points overall, 31 among outpatients, 22 in 9-65 year-olds, and 23 against influenza B. Including people vaccinated in previous seasons only in the unvaccinated category underestimated EIV by 9 percentage points on average (31% vs 40%). Estimates considering vaccination of three or five previous seasons were similar.ConclusionsVaccine effectiveness studies should consider influenza vaccination in previous seasons, as it can retain effect and is often an effect modifier. Vaccination status in three categories (current season, previous seasons only, unvaccinated) reflects the whole EIV.

Risk Factors of Infection, Hospitalization and Death from SARS-CoV-2: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

We conducted a prospective population-based cohort study to assess risk factors for infection, hospitalization, and death from SARS-CoV-2. The study comprised the people covered by the Health Service of Navarre, Spain. Sociodemographic variables and chronic conditions were obtained from electronic healthcare databases. Confirmed infections, hospitalizations, and deaths from SARS-CoV-2 were obtained from the enhanced epidemiological surveillance during the second SARS-CoV-2 epidemic surge (July-December 2020), in which diagnostic tests were widely available. Among 643,757 people, 5497 confirmed infections, 323 hospitalizations, 38 intensive care unit admissions, and 72 deaths from SARS-CoV-2 per 100,000 inhabitants were observed. A higher incidence of confirmed infection was associated with people aged 15-29 years, nursing home residents, healthcare workers, people born in Latin America or Africa, as well as in those diagnosed with diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, dementia, severe obesity, hypertension and functional dependence. The risk of hospitalization in the population was associated with males, higher age, nursing home residents, Latin American or African origin, and those diagnosed with immunodeficiency, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, COPD, asthma, kidney disease, cerebrovascular disease, cirrhosis, dementia, severe obesity, hypertension and functional dependence. The risk of death was associated with males, higher age, nursing home residents, Latin American origin, low income level, immunodeficiency, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, COPD, kidney disease, dementia, and functional dependence. This study supports the prioritization of the older population, nursing home residents, and people with chronic conditions and functional dependence for SARS-CoV-2 prevention and vaccination, and highlights the need for additional preventive support for immigrants.