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The ecological impact of non-native species arises from their establishment in local assemblages. However, the rates of non-native spread in new regions and their determinants have not been comprehensively studied. Here, we combined global databases documenting the occurrence of non-native species and residence of non-native birds, mammals, and vascular plants at regional and local scales to describe how the likelihood of non-native occurrence and their proportion in local assemblages relate with their residence time and levels of human usage in different ecosystems. Our findings reveal that local non-native occurrence generally increases with residence time. Colonization is most rapid in croplands and urban areas, while it is slower and variable in natural or semi-natural ecosystems. Notably, non-native occurrence continues to rise even 200 years after introduction, especially for birds and vascular plants, and in other land-use types rather than croplands and urban areas. The impact of residence time on non-native proportions is significant only for mammals. We conclude that the continental exchange of biotas requires considerable time for effects to manifest at the local scale across taxa and land-use types. The unpredictability of future impacts, implied by the slow spread of non-native species, strengthens the call for stronger regulations on the exchange of non-native species to reduce the long-lasting invasion debt looming on ecosystems' future.
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Aves , Espécies Introduzidas , Mamíferos , Animais , Plantas , Ecossistema , Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos NaturaisRESUMO
The ever-increasing and expanding globalisation of trade and transport underpins the escalating global problem of biological invasions. Developing biosecurity infrastructures is crucial to anticipate and prevent the transport and introduction of invasive alien species. Still, robust and defensible forecasts of potential invaders are rare, especially for species without known invasion history. Here, we aim to support decision-making by developing a quantitative invasion risk assessment tool based on invasion syndromes (i.e., generalising typical attributes of invasive alien species). We implemented a workflow based on 'Multiple Imputation with Chain Equation' to estimate invasion syndromes from imputed datasets of species' life-history and ecological traits and macroecological patterns. Importantly, our models disentangle the factors explaining (i) transport and introduction and (ii) establishment. We showcase our tool by modelling the invasion syndromes of 466 amphibians and reptile species with invasion history. Then, we project these models to amphibians and reptiles worldwide (16,236 species [c.76% global coverage]) to identify species with a risk of being unintentionally transported and introduced, and risk of establishing alien populations. Our invasion syndrome models showed high predictive accuracy with a good balance between specificity and generality. Unintentionally transported and introduced species tend to be common and thrive well in human-disturbed habitats. In contrast, those with established alien populations tend to be large-sized, are habitat generalists, thrive well in human-disturbed habitats, and have large native geographic ranges. We forecast that 160 amphibians and reptiles without known invasion history could be unintentionally transported and introduced in the future. Among them, 57 species have a high risk of establishing alien populations. Our reliable, reproducible, transferable, statistically robust and scientifically defensible quantitative invasion risk assessment tool is a significant new addition to the suite of decision-support tools needed for developing a future-proof preventative biosecurity globally.
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Anfíbios , Previsões , Espécies Introduzidas , Répteis , Animais , Répteis/fisiologia , Anfíbios/fisiologia , Medição de Risco/métodos , Modelos Teóricos , Modelos BiológicosRESUMO
Although invasive alien species have long been recognized as a major threat to nature and people, until now there has been no comprehensive global review of the status, trends, drivers, impacts, management and governance challenges of biological invasions. The Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) Thematic Assessment Report on Invasive Alien Species and Their Control (hereafter 'IPBES invasive alien species assessment') drew on more than 13,000 scientific publications and reports in 15 languages as well as Indigenous and local knowledge on all taxa, ecosystems and regions across the globe. Therefore, it provides unequivocal evidence of the major and growing threat of invasive alien species alongside ambitious but realistic approaches to manage biological invasions. The extent of the threat and impacts has been recognized by the 143 member states of IPBES who approved the summary for policymakers of this assessment. Here, the authors of the IPBES assessment outline the main findings of the IPBES invasive alien species assessment and highlight the urgency to act now.
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Biodiversidade , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Espécies Introduzidas , Animais , EcossistemaRESUMO
A species' success during the invasion of new areas hinges on an interplay between the demographic processes common to invasions and the specific ecological context of the novel environment. Evolutionary genetic studies of invasive species can investigate how genetic bottlenecks and ecological conditions shape genetic variation in invasions, and our study pairs two invasive populations that are hypothesized to be from the same source population to compare how each population evolved during and after introduction. Invasive European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) established populations in both Australia and North America in the 19th century. Here, we compare whole-genome sequences among native and independently introduced European starling populations to determine how demographic processes interact with rapid evolution to generate similar genetic patterns in these recent and replicated invasions. Demographic models indicate that both invasive populations experienced genetic bottlenecks as expected based on invasion history, and we find that specific genomic regions have differentiated even on this short evolutionary timescale. Despite genetic bottlenecks, we suggest that genetic drift alone cannot explain differentiation in at least two of these regions. The demographic boom intrinsic to many invasions as well as potential inversions may have led to high population-specific differentiation, although the patterns of genetic variation are also consistent with the hypothesis that this infamous and highly mobile invader adapted to novel selection (e.g., extrinsic factors). We use targeted sampling of replicated invasions to identify and evaluate support for multiple, interacting evolutionary mechanisms that lead to differentiation during the invasion process.
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Quantifying habitat quality is dependent on measuring a site's relative contribution to population growth rate. This is challenging for studies of waterbirds, whose high mobility can decouple demographic rates from local habitat conditions and make sustained monitoring of individuals near-impossible. To overcome these challenges, biologists have used many direct and indirect proxies of waterbird habitat quality. However, consensus on what methods are most appropriate for a given scenario is lacking. We undertook a structured literature review of the methods used to quantify waterbird habitat quality, and provide a synthesis of the context-dependent strengths and limitations of those methods. Our search of the Web of Science and Scopus databases returned a sample of 666 studies, upon which our review was based. The reviewed studies assessed habitat quality by either measuring habitat attributes (e.g., food abundance, water quality, vegetation structure), or measuring attributes of the waterbirds themselves (e.g., demographic parameters, body condition, behavior, distribution). Measuring habitat attributes, although they are only indirectly related to demographic rates, has the advantage of being unaffected by waterbird behavioral stochasticity. Conversely, waterbird-derived measures (e.g., body condition, peck rates) may be more directly related to demographic rates than habitat variables, but may be subject to greater stochastic variation (e.g., behavioral change due to presence of conspecifics). Therefore, caution is needed to ensure that the measured variable does influence waterbird demographic rates. This assumption was usually based on ecological theory rather than empirical evidence. Our review highlighted that there is no single best, universally applicable method to quantify waterbird habitat quality. Individual project specifics (e.g., time frame, spatial scale, funding) will influence the choice of variables measured. Where possible, practitioners should measure variables most directly related to demographic rates. Generally, measuring multiple variables yields a better chance of accurately capturing the relationship between habitat characteristics and demographic rates.
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A global technology arms race is underway to build evermore powerful and precise quantum computers. Quantum computers have the potential to tackle certain quantitative problems quicker than classical computers. The current focus of quantum computing is on pushing the boundaries of fundamental quantum information and commercial applications in industrial sectors, financial services, and other profit-led sectors, particularly where improvements in optimisation and sampling can improve increased economic return. We believe that ecologists could exploit the computational power of quantum computers because the statistical approaches commonly used in ecology already have proven pathways on quantum computers. Moreover, quantum computing could ultimately leapfrog our understanding of complex ecological systems, if the hardware, opportunity, and creativity of quantitative ecologists all align.
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Metodologias Computacionais , Teoria Quântica , Computadores , EcologiaRESUMO
While the regional distribution of non-native species is increasingly well documented for some taxa, global analyses of non-native species in local assemblages are still missing. Here, we use a worldwide collection of assemblages from five taxa - ants, birds, mammals, spiders and vascular plants - to assess whether the incidence, frequency and proportions of naturalised non-native species depend on type and intensity of land use. In plants, assemblages of primary vegetation are least invaded. In the other taxa, primary vegetation is among the least invaded land-use types, but one or several other types have equally low levels of occurrence, frequency and proportions of non-native species. High land use intensity is associated with higher non-native incidence and frequency in primary vegetation, while intensity effects are inconsistent for other land-use types. These findings highlight the potential dual role of unused primary vegetation in preserving native biodiversity and in conferring resistance against biological invasions.
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Formigas , Ecossistema , Animais , Espécies Introduzidas , Incidência , Biodiversidade , MamíferosRESUMO
The spread of nonindigenous species by shipping is a large and growing global problem that harms coastal ecosystems and economies and may blur coastal biogeographical patterns. This study coupled eukaryotic environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding with dissimilarity regression to test the hypothesis that ship-borne species spread homogenizes port communities. We first collected and metabarcoded water samples from ports in Europe, Asia, Australia and the Americas. We then calculated community dissimilarities between port pairs and tested for effects of environmental dissimilarity, biogeographical region and four alternative measures of ship-borne species transport risk. We predicted that higher shipping between ports would decrease community dissimilarity, that the effect of shipping would be small compared to that of environment dissimilarity and shared biogeography, and that more complex shipping risk metrics (which account for ballast water and stepping-stone spread) would perform better. Consistent with our hypotheses, community dissimilarities increased significantly with environmental dissimilarity and, to a lesser extent, decreased with ship-borne species transport risks, particularly if the ports had similar environments and stepping-stone risks were considered. Unexpectedly, we found no clear effect of shared biogeography, and that risk metrics incorporating estimates of ballast discharge did not offer more explanatory power than simpler traffic-based risks. Overall, we found that shipping homogenizes eukaryotic communities between ports in predictable ways, which could inform improvements in invasive species policy and management. We demonstrated the usefulness of eDNA metabarcoding and dissimilarity regression for disentangling the drivers of large-scale biodiversity patterns. We conclude by outlining logistical considerations and recommendations for future studies using this approach.
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DNA Ambiental , Ecossistema , DNA Ambiental/genética , Navios , Biodiversidade , Água , Monitoramento Ambiental , Código de Barras de DNA TaxonômicoRESUMO
Invasive rodents are a major cause of environmental damage and biodiversity loss, particularly on islands. Unlike insects, genetic biocontrol strategies including population-suppressing gene drives with biased inheritance have not been developed in mice. Here, we demonstrate a gene drive strategy (tCRISPR) that leverages super-Mendelian transmission of the t haplotype to spread inactivating mutations in a haplosufficient female fertility gene (Prl). Using spatially explicit individual-based in silico modeling, we show that tCRISPR can eradicate island populations under a range of realistic field-based parameter values. We also engineer transgenic tCRISPR mice that, crucially, exhibit biased transmission of the modified t haplotype and Prl mutations at levels our modeling predicts would be sufficient for eradication. This is an example of a feasible gene drive system for invasive alien rodent population control.
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Biodiversidade , Tecnologia de Impulso Genético , Camundongos , Feminino , Animais , Roedores , Genética Populacional , Repetições Palindrômicas Curtas Agrupadas e Regularmente EspaçadasRESUMO
The international wildlife trade presents severe conservation and environmental security risks, yet no international regulatory framework exists to monitor the trade of species not listed in the appendices of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). We explored the composition and dynamics of internationally regulated versus nonregulated trade, with a focus on importations of wild-caught terrestrial vertebrates entering the United States from 2009 to 2018. We used 10 years of species-level trade records of the numbers of live, wild-caught animals imported to the United States and data on International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) estimates of extinction risk to determine whether there were differences in the diversity, abundance, and risk to extinction among imports of CITES-listed versus unlisted species. We found 3.6 times the number of unlisted species in U.S. imports compared with CITES-listed species (1366 vs. 378 species). The CITES-listed species were more likely to face reported conservation threats relative to unlisted species (71.7% vs. 27.5%). However, 376 unlisted species faced conversation threats, 297 species had unknown population trends, and 139 species were without an evaluation by the IUCN. Unlisted species appearing for the first time in records were imported 5.5 times more often relative to CITES-listed species. Unlisted reptiles had the largest rate of entry, averaging 53 unique species appearing in imports for the first time per year. Overall trade quantities were approximately 11 times larger for imports of unlisted species relative to imports of CITES-listed species. Countries that were top exporters of CITES-listed species were mostly different from exporters of unlisted species. Because of the vulnerabilities of unlisted, traded species entering the United States and increasing global demand, we strongly recommend governments adapt their policies to monitor and report on the trade of all wildlife.
El Mercado Estadunidense de Fauna Importada No Enlistada en el Tratado Multilateral CITES Resumen Aunque el mercado internacional de fauna representa un riesgo severo para la conservación y la seguridad ambiental, no existe un marco internacional de regulación para monitorear el mercado de especies que no están en los apéndices de la Convención sobre el Comercio Internacional de Especies Amenazadas de Fauna y Flora Silvestres (CITES). Exploramos la composición y las dinámicas del mercado regulado internacionalmente frente al que no lo está, enfocados en la importación de vertebrados terrestres capturados en vida silvestre que entraron a Estados Unidos entre 2009 y 2018. Usamos el registro de comercio a nivel de especie del número de animales vivos capturados en vida silvestre e importados a Estados Unidos durante diez años y datos de los estimados de extinción de la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (UICN) para determinar si hay diferencias en la diversidad, abundancia y el riesgo de extinción entre las especies importadas enlistadas o no en CITES. Encontramos 3.6 veces más el número de especies no enlistadas en las importaciones a Estados Unidos en comparación con las especies enlistadas en CITES (1,366 versus 378 especies). Fue más probable que las especies de CITES enfrentaran amenazas de conservación reportadas en relación con las especies no enlistadas (71.7% vs. 27.5%). Sin embargo, 376 especies no enlistadas enfrentaron amenazas de conservación, 297 especies no cuentan con tendencias poblacionales conocidas y 139 especies no estaban evaluadas por la UICN. Las especies no enlistadas que aparecieron por primera vez en los registros fueron importadas 5.5 más veces en relación con las especies en CITES. La mayor tasa de entrada la tuvieron los reptiles no enlistados, con un promedio de 53 especies únicas al año registradas por primera vez en las importaciones. La cantidad generalizada de intercambios fue once veces mayor para la importación de especies no enlistadas en relación con la importación de especies CITES. La mayoría de los principales países exportadores de especies CITES fue diferente a la de los exportadores de especies no enlistadas. Debido a la vulnerabilidad de las especies comerciales no enlistadas que entran a los Estados Unidos y al incremento de la demanda global, recomendamos firmemente que los gobiernos adapten sus políticas para monitorear y reportar el mercado de toda la fauna.
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Animais Selvagens , Comércio , Animais , Estados Unidos , Conservação dos Recursos Naturais , Internacionalidade , Cooperação InternacionalRESUMO
The European starling, Sturnus vulgaris, is an ecologically significant, globally invasive avian species that is also suffering from a major decline in its native range. Here, we present the genome assembly and long-read transcriptome of an Australian-sourced European starling (S. vulgaris vAU), and a second, North American, short-read genome assembly (S. vulgaris vNA), as complementary reference genomes for population genetic and evolutionary characterization. S. vulgaris vAU combined 10× genomics linked-reads, low-coverage Nanopore sequencing, and PacBio Iso-Seq full-length transcript scaffolding to generate a 1050 Mb assembly on 6222 scaffolds (7.6 Mb scaffold N50, 94.6% busco completeness). Further scaffolding against the high-quality zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata) genome assigned 98.6% of the assembly to 32 putative nuclear chromosome scaffolds. Species-specific transcript mapping and gene annotation revealed good gene-level assembly and high functional completeness. Using S. vulgaris vAU, we demonstrate how the multifunctional use of PacBio Iso-Seq transcript data and complementary homology-based annotation of sequential assembly steps (assessed using a new tool, saaga) can be used to assess, inform, and validate assembly workflow decisions. We also highlight some counterintuitive behaviour in traditional busco metrics, and present buscomp, a complementary tool for assembly comparison designed to be robust to differences in assembly size and base-calling quality. This work expands our knowledge of avian genomes and the available toolkit for assessing and improving genome quality. The new genomic resources presented will facilitate further global genomic and transcriptomic analysis on this ecologically important species.
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Estorninhos , Animais , Austrália , Genoma/genética , Genômica , Anotação de Sequência Molecular , Estorninhos/genéticaRESUMO
Spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models have emerged as a robust method to estimate the population density of mobile animals. However, model evaluation has generally been based on data simulated from simplified representations of animal space use. Here, we generated data from animal movement simulated from a mechanistic individual-based model, in which movement emerges from the individual's response to a changing environment (i.e., from the bottom-up), driven by key ecological processes (e.g., resource memory and territoriality). We drew individual detection data from simulated movement trajectories and fitted detection data sets to a basic, resource selection and transience SCR model, as well as their variants accounting for resource-driven heterogeneity in density and detectability. Across all SCR models, abundance estimates were robust to multiple, but low-degree violations of the specified movement processes (e.g., resource selection). SCR models also successfully captured the positive effect of resource quality on density. However, covariate models failed to capture the finer scale effect of resource quality on detectability and space use, which may be a consequence of the low temporal resolution of SCR data sets and/or model misspecification. We show that home-range size is challenging to infer from the scale parameter alone, compounded by reliance on conventional measures of "true" home-range size that are highly sensitive to sampling regime. Additionally, we found the transience model challenging to fit, probably due to data sparsity and violation of the assumption of normally distributed inter-occasion movement of activity centers, suggesting that further development of the model is required for general applicability. Our results showed that further integration of complex movement into SCR models may not be necessary for population estimates of abundance when the level of individual heterogeneity induced by the underlying movement process is low, but appears warranted in terms of accurately revealing finer scale patterns of ecological and movement processes. Further investigation into whether this holds true in populations with other types of realistic movement characteristics is merited. Our study provides a framework to generate realistic SCR data sets to develop and evaluate more complex movement processes in SCR models.
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Modelos Biológicos , Movimento , Animais , Densidade DemográficaRESUMO
The global pet trade is a major pathway for the introduction of invasive alien species. The composition of species selected for transport is driven by market demands, which may be influenced by a combination of both historical and cultural factors. We compared Eastern (Taiwan) and Western (Australia and the Iberian Peninsula) bird markets to explore factors associated with the species composition and geographic origin of the birds for sale. We used a bespoke randomization test to compare species composition, geographic origins, and species overlap at different taxonomic levels among bird markets across countries. Alien species identified in the study accounted for more than 10% of the world's bird species. Parrots and songbirds were the most common alien bird taxa traded across all markets. In both Iberian and Australian markets, there was a strong bias toward parrots, waxbills, gamebirds, and finches. In Taiwan, species traded more than expected were parrots, waxbills, starlings, and leafbirds. Neotropical species were the most traded group in the three markets. Afrotropical species were also traded more than expected in Iberian and Australian markets, while the Taiwanese traded more alien species from neighboring Asian regions. The bird trade focuses on the same few bird groups worldwide. The composition and origin of species preferred in the Western markets may be influenced by colonial histories, cultural similarity, and strict regulations on wildlife importation, while species preferences in Eastern markets are strongly influenced by regional culture and proximity. Propagule pressure is a dominant factor influencing the success of biological invasions; it is important to recognize differences in the composition of bird markets among regions because they can translate into different invasion risks, among other factors.
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Invasive alien species continue to threaten global biodiversity. CRISPR-based gene drives, which can theoretically spread through populations despite imparting a fitness cost, could be used to suppress or eradicate pest populations. We develop an individual-based, spatially explicit, stochastic model to simulate the ability of CRISPR-based homing and X chromosome shredding drives to eradicate populations of invasive house mice (Mus muculus) from islands. Using the model, we explore the interactive effect of the efficiency of the drive constructs and the spatial ecology of the target population on the outcome of a gene-drive release. We also consider the impact of polyandrous mating and sperm competition, which could compromise the efficacy of some gene-drive strategies. Our results show that both drive strategies could be used to eradicate large populations of mice. Whereas parameters related to drive efficiency and demography strongly influence drive performance, we find that sperm competition following polyandrous mating is unlikely to impact the outcome of an eradication effort substantially. Assumptions regarding the spatial ecology of mice influenced the probability of and time required for eradication, with short-range dispersal capacities and limited mate-search areas producing 'chase' dynamics across the island characterized by cycles of local extinction and recolonization by mice. We also show that highly efficient drives are not always optimal, when dispersal and mate-search capabilities are low. Rapid local population suppression around the introduction sites can cause loss of the gene drive before it can spread to the entire island. We conclude that, although the design of efficient gene drives is undoubtedly critical, accurate data on the spatial ecology of target species are critical for predicting the result of a gene-drive release.
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Tecnologia de Impulso Genético , Animais , Biodiversidade , Tecnologia de Impulso Genético/métodos , Espécies Introduzidas , Camundongos , Probabilidade , VertebradosRESUMO
The illegal wildlife trade (IWT) threatens conservation and biosecurity efforts. The Internet has greatly facilitated the trade of wildlife, and researchers have increasingly examined the Internet to uncover illegal trade. However, most efforts to locate illegal trade on the Internet are targeted to one or few taxa or products. Large-scale efforts to find illegal wildlife on the Internet (e-commerce, social media, dark web) may be facilitated by a systematic compilation of illegally traded wildlife taxa and their uses. Here, we provide such a dataset. We used seizure records from three global wildlife trade databases to compile the identity of seized taxa along with their intended usage (i.e., use-type). Our dataset includes c. 4.9k distinct taxa representing c. 3.3k species and contains c. 11k taxa-use combinations from 110 unique use-types. Further, we acquired over 45k common names for seized taxa from over 100 languages. Our dataset can be used to conduct large-scale broad searches of the Internet to find illegally traded wildlife. Further, our dataset can be filtered for more targeted searches of specific taxa or derived products.
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The avian eggshell is a bio-ceramic structure that protects the embryo. It is composed almost entirely of calcium carbonate and a small amount of organic material. An optimal amount of calcium carbonate in the eggshell is essential for the embryo's development, yet how the ratio of calcium carbonate to organic matter varies between species has not been investigated. Calcium is a limiting resource for most birds, so its investment in their eggs should be optimized for a bird's life history. We measured the relative calcium carbonate content of eggshells in 222 bird species and tested hypotheses for how this trait has evolved with the life-history strategies of these species and other traits of their respective egg physiologies. We found that (i) eggshell calcium carbonate content was positively correlated with species having thinner eggshells and smaller than expected eggs relative to incubating parental mass, (ii) species with small mean clutch sizes had lower calcium carbonate content in their eggshells, and (iii) for species with larger clutch sizes, eggshell calcium carbonate content was negatively correlated with their mean lifespan. The pattern of lower eggshell calcium carbonate in longer lived, larger clutched birds suggests that calcium provision to the eggshell has long-term costs for the individual.
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Cálcio , Casca de Ovo , Animais , Aves , Carbonato de Cálcio , LongevidadeRESUMO
We developed the DAMA (Distribution of Alien Mammals) database, a comprehensive source reporting the global distribution of the 230 species of mammals that have established self-sustaining and free-ranging populations outside their native range due to direct or indirect human action. Every alien range is accompanied by information on its invasion stage, pathway, method of introduction, and date of introduction. We collected information from 827 different sources (scientific literature, books, risk assessments, reports, online biodiversity databases and websites), and used it to draw alien range maps for these species following the IUCN mapping framework. DAMA comprises 2,726 range polygons, covering 199 countries, 2,190 level 1 administrative areas, and 11 zoogeographic realms for the period 21500 BC-AD 2017. The most represented orders among introduced mammal species are Rodentia (n = 58, 25.22%), Cetartiodactyla (n = 49 species, 21.30%), Carnivora (n = 30 species, 13.04%), Diprotodontia (n = 28, 12.17%), and Primates (n = 26, 11.30%). Mammal species have been frequently introduced for hunting (n = 100), pet trade (n = 57), conservation (n = 51), and fauna improvement (n = 42). The majority of range polygons are placed on islands (n = 2,196, 80.56%), encompass populations that have moved beyond establishment and into the invasion stage (n = 1,655, 60.71%), and originated from 1500 AD to the present (n = 1,496, 54.88%). Despite inheriting literature biases towards more studied regions (e.g., developed countries), DAMA is the most up-to-date picture of alien mammal global distribution and can be used to investigate their invasion ecology across different biogeographical regions. There are no copyright or proprietary restrictions; IUCN range maps were modified into a derivative work according to the IUCN's terms of service.
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Espécies Introduzidas , Mamíferos , Animais , Biodiversidade , Bases de Dados Factuais , EcologiaRESUMO
Automated monitoring of websites that trade wildlife is increasingly necessary to inform conservation and biosecurity efforts. However, e-commerce and wildlife trading websites can contain a vast number of advertisements, an unknown proportion of which may be irrelevant to researchers and practitioners. Given that many wildlife-trade advertisements have an unstructured text format, automated identification of relevant listings has not traditionally been possible, nor attempted. Other scientific disciplines have solved similar problems using machine learning and natural language processing models, such as text classifiers. Here, we test the ability of a suite of text classifiers to extract relevant advertisements from wildlife trade occurring on the Internet. We collected data from an Australian classifieds website where people can post advertisements of their pet birds (n = 16.5k advertisements). We found that text classifiers can predict, with a high degree of accuracy, which listings are relevant (ROC AUC ≥ 0.98, F1 score ≥ 0.77). Furthermore, in an attempt to answer the question 'how much data is required to have an adequately performing model?', we conducted a sensitivity analysis by simulating decreases in sample sizes to measure the subsequent change in model performance. From our sensitivity analysis, we found that text classifiers required a minimum sample size of 33% (c. 5.5k listings) to accurately identify relevant listings (for our dataset), providing a reference point for future applications of this sort. Our results suggest that text classification is a viable tool that can be applied to the online trade of wildlife to reduce time dedicated to data cleaning. However, the success of text classifiers will vary depending on the advertisements and websites, and will therefore be context dependent. Further work to integrate other machine learning tools, such as image classification, may provide better predictive abilities in the context of streamlining data processing for wildlife trade related online data.
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Animais Selvagens/fisiologia , Comércio , Envio de Mensagens de Texto , Animais , Área Sob a Curva , Modelos Teóricos , Curva ROC , Tamanho da AmostraRESUMO
Explaining variation in the fitness of organisms is a fundamental goal in evolutionary ecology. Maintenance energy metabolism is the minimum energy required to sustain biological processes at rest (resting metabolic rate: RMR) and is proposed to drive or constrain fitness of animals; however, this remains debated. Hypotheses have been proposed as to why fitness might increase with RMR (the 'increased intake' or 'performance' hypothesis), decrease with RMR (the 'compensation' or 'allocation' hypothesis), or vary among species and environmental contexts (the 'context dependent' hypothesis). Here, we conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of the literature, finding 114 studies with 355 relationships between RMR and traits that may be related to fitness. We show that individuals with relatively high RMR generally have high fitness overall, which might be supported by an increased energy intake. However, fitness proxies are not interchangeable: the nature of the RMR-fitness relationship varied substantially depending on the specific trait in question, and we found no consistent relationship between RMR and those traits most closely linked with actual fitness (i.e., lifetime reproductive success). We hypothesise that maintaining high RMR is not costly when resources are unlimited, and we propose ideas for future studies to identify mechanisms underlying RMR-fitness relationships.