Patterns of Growth and Decline in Lung Function in Persistent Childhood Asthma.

BACKGROUND: Tracking longitudinal measurements of growth and decline in lung function in patients with persistent childhood asthma may reveal links between asthma and subsequent chronic airflow obstruction. METHODS: We classified children with asthma according to four characteristic patterns of lung-function growth and decline on the basis of graphs showing forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), representing spirometric measurements performed from childhood into adulthood. Risk factors associated with abnormal patterns were also examined. To define normal values, we used FEV1 values from participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey who did not have asthma. RESULTS: Of the 684 study participants, 170 (25%) had a normal pattern of lung-function growth without early decline, and 514 (75%) had abnormal patterns: 176 (26%) had reduced growth and an early decline, 160 (23%) had reduced growth only, and 178 (26%) had normal growth and an early decline. Lower baseline values for FEV1, smaller bronchodilator response, airway hyperresponsiveness at baseline, and male sex were associated with reduced growth (P<0.001 for all comparisons). At the last spirometric measurement (mean [±SD] age, 26.0±1.8 years), 73 participants (11%) met Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometric criteria for lung-function impairment that was consistent with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); these participants were more likely to have a reduced pattern of growth than a normal pattern (18% vs. 3%, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Childhood impairment of lung function and male sex were the most significant predictors of abnormal longitudinal patterns of lung-function growth and decline. Children with persistent asthma and reduced growth of lung function are at increased risk for fixed airflow obstruction and possibly COPD in early adulthood. (Funded by the Parker B. Francis Foundation and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00000575.).

Impact of non-linear smoking effects on the identification of gene-by-smoking interactions in COPD genetics studies.

BACKGROUND: The identification of gene-by-environment interactions is important for understanding the genetic basis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Many COPD genetic association analyses assume a linear relationship between pack-years of smoking exposure and forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV(1)); however, this assumption has not been evaluated empirically in cohorts with a wide spectrum of COPD severity. METHODS: The relationship between FEV(1) and pack-years of smoking exposure was examined in four large cohorts assembled for the purpose of identifying genetic associations with COPD. Using data from the Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Genetic Modifiers Study, the accuracy and power of two different approaches to model smoking were compared by performing a simulation study of a genetic variant with a range of gene-by-smoking interaction effects. RESULTS: Non-linear relationships between smoking and FEV(1) were identified in the four cohorts. It was found that, in most situations where the relationship between pack-years and FEV(1) is non-linear, a piecewise linear approach to model smoking and gene-by-smoking interactions is preferable to the commonly used total pack-years approach. The piecewise linear approach was applied to a genetic association analysis of the PI*Z allele in the Norway Case-Control cohort and a potential PI*Z-by-smoking interaction was identified (p=0.03 for FEV(1) analysis, p=0.01 for COPD susceptibility analysis). CONCLUSION: In study samples of subjects with a wide range of COPD severity, a non-linear relationship between pack-years of smoking and FEV(1) is likely. In this setting, approaches that account for this non-linearity can be more powerful and less biased than the more common approach of using total pack-years to model the smoking effect.

Development of predictive models for airflow obstruction in alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency.

Alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency is a genetic condition associated with severe, early-onset chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, there is significant variability in lung function impairment among persons with the protease inhibitor ZZ genotype. Early identification of persons at highest risk of developing lung disease could be beneficial in guiding monitoring and treatment decisions. Using a multicenter, family-based study sample (2002-2005) of 372 persons with the protease inhibitor ZZ genotype, the authors developed prediction models for forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)) and the presence of severe COPD using demographic, clinical, and genetic variables. Half of the data sample was used for model development, and the other half was used for model validation. In the training sample, variables found to be predictive of both FEV(1) and severe COPD were age, sex, pack-years of smoking, bronchodilator responsiveness, chronic bronchitis symptoms, and index case status. In the validation sample, the predictive model for FEV(1) explained 50% of the variance in FEV(1), and the model for severe COPD exhibited excellent discrimination (c statistic = 0.88).