Achieving the UNAIDS goals by 2030 in people living with HIV: A simulation model to support the prioritization of health care interventions.

OBJECTIVE: We simulated the impact of implementing different health interventions to improve the HIV continuum of care for people diagnosed, on treatment, and virologically suppressed in Spain for the 2020-2030 period. METHODS: The model was carried out in four phases involving a multidisciplinary expert panel: (1) literature review; (2) selection/definition of the interventions and their effectiveness; (3) consensus meeting; and (4) development of an analytical decision model to project the impact of implementing/strengthening these interventions to improve the HIV continuum of care, corresponding to 2017-2019 (87% diagnosed, 97% on treatment, 90% with viral suppression), through the creation of different scenarios for 2020-2030. A total of 19 interventions were selected based on expanding the offer of HIV rapid tests and implementing training/peer programmes, electronic alerts, multidisciplinary care, and mHealth, among others. The effectiveness of the interventions was defined by the percentage increases in diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression after their implementation, targeting the entire population and specific groups at high-risk (men who have sex with men, migrants, female sex workers, transgender people, and people who inject drugs). RESULTS: Implementing eight interventions for diagnosis, three for treatment, and eight for viral suppression for the target populations during 2020-2030 would increase the continuum of care to approximately 100% diagnosed (remaining residual undetectable cases), 98% treated, and 96% virologically suppressed. CONCLUSIONS: Planification, prioritization, and implementation of selected interventions based on the current HIV continuum of care could allow achievement of the 95-95-95 UNAIDS goals in Spain by 2030.

Impact of Remdesivir on the Treatment of COVID-19 During the First Wave in Spain.

INTRODUCTION: Spain was one of the most affected countries during the first wave of COVID-19, having the highest mortality rate in Europe. The aim of this retrospective study is to estimate the impact that remdesivir-the first drug for COVID-19 approved in the EU-would have had in the first wave. METHODS: This study simulated the impact that remdesivir could have had on the Spanish National Health System (SNHS) capacity (bed occupancy) and the number of deaths that could have been prevented, based on two scenarios: a real-life scenario (without remdesivir) and an alternative scenario (with remdesivir). It considered the clinical results of the ACTT-1 trial in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 and pneumonia who required supplemental oxygen. The occupancy rates in general wards and ICUs were estimated in both scenarios. RESULTS: Remdesivir use could have prevented the admission of 2587 patients (43.75%) in the ICUs. It could have also increased the SNHS capacity in 5656 general wards beds and 1700 ICU beds, showing an increase in the number of beds available of 17.53% (95% CI 3.98%-24.42%) and 23.98% (95% CI 21.33%-28.22%), respectively, at the peak of the occupancy rates. Furthermore, remdesivir use could have prevented 7639 deaths due to COVID-19, which implies a 27.51% reduction (95% CI 14.25%-34.07%). CONCLUSIONS: Remdesivir could have relieved the pressure on the SNHS and could have reduced the death toll, providing a better strategy for the management of COVID-19 during the first wave.

Treatment decision-making in chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: Key factors for healthcare professionals. PRELIC study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the preferences of Spanish healthcare professionals (haematologists and hospital pharmacists) for the treatment selection of active Chronic Lymphocytic Leukaemia (CLL) patients at first relapse, condition that mainly afflicts older adults. METHODS: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted among haematologists and hospital pharmacists. A literature review and a focus group informed the DCE design. CLL treatment settings were defined by seven attributes: four patient/disease-related attributes (age, functional status, comorbidities, and risk of the disease) and three treatment-related attributes (efficacy [hazard ratio of progression-free survival, HR-PFS], rate of discontinuations due to adverse events and cost). A mixed-logit model was used to determine choice-based preferences. Relative importance (RI) of attributes was calculated and compared between stakeholders. Willingness-to-pay (WTP) was estimated through the DCE. Besides, nine ad-hoc questions were posed, to explore more in depth CLL treatment decision making. RESULTS: A total of 130 participants (72 haematologists and 58 hospital pharmacists) answered the DCE. All attributes were significant predictors of preferences (p < 0.05) in the multinomial model. Higher RI was obtained for treatment-related attributes: the highest rated being 'cost' (23.8%) followed by 'efficacy' (20.9%). Regarding patient-related attributes, the highest RI was obtained for 'age' (18.1%). No significant differences (p > 0.05) in RI between haematologists and pharmacists were found. WTP for the treatment was higher for younger CLL patients. Ad-hoc questions showed that patient age and functional status influence treatment decisions. CONCLUSIONS: For healthcare professionals, 'cost' and 'efficacy' (treatment-related attributes) and age (patient-related attribute) are the main factors that determine CLL treatment selection at first relapse. WTP decreases as patient's age increases.

[Cost-effectiveness analysis of maintenance therapy with rituximab in patients with follicular lymphoma responding to induction therapy at the first line]. / Análisis coste-efectividad del tratamiento de mantenimiento con rituximab en pacientes con linfoma folicular que responden a la terapia de inducción en primera línea.

BACKGROUND: Maintenance therapy with rituximab for follicular lymphoma (FL) responding to induction at the first-line, significantly increases progression-free survival compared with observation. To estimate the efficiency of this therapeutic option, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of maintenance therapy of the follicular lymphoma (FL) that responds to induction in first line, with rituximab, compared with the option of "watch and wait" strategy. METHODS: We did a Markov model of the FL, with four health states (progression free survival in first or second line, progression and death). The transition probabilities between states were obtained from clinical trials PRIMA and EORTC 20981. Health state utilities were obtained from literature. The use of health resources, from the perspective of the National Health System was estimated by a panel of Spanish clinical experts. Unit costs (euros in 2011) were obtained from Spanish sources. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses were made. RESULTS: In the deterministic base case analysis, for a time horizon of 30 years, the cost per life year gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, was euros 5,663 and euros 6,253 respectively. The sensitivity analyses confirmed the stability of the base case for time horizons of 10 and 20 years and various statistical distributions (Weibull, exponential, log-logistic, log-normal, Gompertz, and gamma) ranging between euros 4,222 and euros 8,766. Rituximab maintenance is cost-effective from a time horizon of 5.7 years (cost per QALY gained of euros 29,998). CONCLUSION: Compared with observation, rituximab maintenance treatment of the FL that responds to induction therapy in first line, is cost-effective according to the present model.