Clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia in children from the Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea: secondary analysis of two prospective observational studies.

Background: Pneumonia is the leading cause of death in young children globally and is prevalent in the Papua New Guinea highlands. We investigated clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia to inform local treatment guidelines in this resource-limited setting. Methods: Between 2013 and 2020, two consecutive prospective observational studies were undertaken enrolling children 0-4 years presenting with pneumonia to health-care facilities in Goroka Town, Eastern Highlands Province. Logistic regression models were developed to identify clinical predictors of hypoxic pneumonia (oxygen saturation <90% on presentation). Model performance was compared against established criteria to identify severe pneumonia. Findings: There were 2067 cases of pneumonia; hypoxaemia was detected in 36.1%. The strongest independent predictors of hypoxic pneumonia were central cyanosis on examination (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 5.14; 95% CI 3.47-7.60), reduced breath sounds (aOR 2.92; 95% CI 2.30-3.71), and nasal flaring or grunting (aOR 2.34; 95% CI 1.62-3.38). While the model developed to predict hypoxic pneumonia outperformed established pneumonia severity criteria, it was not sensitive enough to be clinically useful at this time. Interpretation: Given signs and symptoms are unable to accurately detect hypoxia, all health care facilities should be equipped with pulse oximeters. However, for the health care worker without access to pulse oximetry, consideration of central cyanosis, reduced breath sounds, nasal flaring or grunting, age-specific tachycardia, wheezing, parent-reported drowsiness, or bronchial breathing as suggestive of hypoxaemic pneumonia, and thus severe disease, may prove useful in guiding management, hospital referral and use of oxygen therapy. Funding: Funded by Pfizer Global and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Pathobionts in Inflammatory Bowel Disease: Origins, Underlying Mechanisms, and Implications for Clinical Care.

The gut microbiota plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of both forms of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), namely, Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC). Although evidence suggests dysbiosis and loss of beneficial microbial species can exacerbate IBD, many new studies have identified microbes with pathogenic qualities, termed "pathobionts," within the intestines of patients with IBD. The concept of pathobionts initiating or driving the chronicity of IBD has largely focused on the putative aggravating role that adherent invasive Escherichia coli may play in CD. However, recent studies have identified additional bacterial and fungal pathobionts in patients with CD and UC. This review will highlight the characteristics of these pathobionts and their implications for IBD treatment. Beyond exploring the origins of pathobionts, we discuss those associated with specific clinical features and the potential mechanisms involved, such as creeping fat (Clostridium innocuum) and impaired wound healing (Debaryomyces hansenii) in patients with CD as well as the increased fecal proteolytic activity (Bacteroides vulgatus) seen as a biomarker for UC severity. Finally, we examine the potential impact of pathobionts on current IBD therapies, and several new approaches to target pathobionts currently in the early stages of development. Despite recognizing that pathobionts likely contribute to the pathogenesis of IBD, more work is needed to define their modes of action. Determining whether causal relationships exist between pathobionts and specific disease characteristics could pave the way for improved care for patients, particularly for those not responding to current IBD therapies.

Parents who inject drugs: Demographics, care arrangements and correlates for child placement in out-of-home care.

INTRODUCTION: Children in families affected by substance use disorders are at high risk of being placed in out-of-home care (OOHC). We aimed to describe the characteristics of parents who inject drugs and identify correlates associated with child placement in OOHC. METHODS: We used baseline data from a community-based cohort of parents who inject drugs (SuperMIX) from Melbourne, Australia. Participants were recruited via convenience, respondent-driven and snowball sampling from April 2008 to November 2020, with follow-up until March 2021. To explore correlates associated with child placement to OOHC, we used multivariable logistic regression and assessed for potential interactions between gender and a range of relevant covariates. RESULTS: Of the 1067 participants, 611 (57%) reported being parents. Fifty-six percent of parents reported child protection involvement. Almost half (49%) had children in OOHC. Nearly half of the parents lived in unstable accommodation (44%) and many of them experienced moderate-severe levels of anxiety (48%) and depression (53%). Female or non-binary gender, identifying as Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, experiencing assault and having more children were associated with child removal to OOHC. Of the 563 participants who reported their own childhood care status, 135 (24%) reported they had been removed to OOHC. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: We identified high rates of child placement in OOHC among parents who inject drugs. There is a need for targeted health and social services, that are gender and culturally responsive, in addition to systems-level interventions addressing social inequities, such as housing, to support parents to care for their children.

Availability and quality of data related to cultural and linguistic diversity in the Victorian Suicide Register: A pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: While people from culturally and linguistically diverse (CALD) backgrounds have been identified as a priority for suicide prevention in Australia, little is known about suicide in CALD communities. We aim to describe the availability and quality of CALD data in the Victorian Suicide Register (VSR). METHODS: A retrospective consecutive case series review of suicides reported to the Coroners Court of Victoria during 2016 was conducted. Using the VSR, we identify suicides showing evidence of CALD identity and relevant variables were extracted and coded according to an adapted Australian Institute of Health and Welfare framework. RESULTS: During 2016, 126 of 652 suicides (19.3%, 95% confidence intervals 16.4-22.6) were flagged as showing evidence of CALD. The two most frequent CALD indicators for which information was recorded were country of birth and year of arrival. There was less information pertaining to citizenship, residency/visa status, preferred language, English language proficiency and religious affiliation. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that the VSR, like other databases, has substantial gaps in availability and quality of CALD data. IMPLICATIONS: A framework to capture richer data on cultural, religious and linguistic diversity when coding suicides is needed to inform policy on suicide prevention initiatives designed for CALD communities.

Exploring Biologic Treatment Hesitancy Among Black and Indigenous Populations in Canada: a Review.

Biologics are becoming an increasingly important part of patient care across Canada. Recent studies from the USA show that Black patients are less likely than White patients to receive biologic treatment for several medical conditions. The relative lack of race-based data in Canada makes it difficult to replicate such studies in Canada. As a result, there is a paucity of literature that explores the association between biologic usage and race in Canada. Our review aims to explore the factors that might be driving racial treatment disparity in Canada that likely parallels the inequalities found in the USA. We provide a summary of the available literature on the factors that contribute to biologic treatment hesitancy among Black and Indigenous populations in Canada. We highlight several solutions that have been proposed in the literature to address biologic treatment hesitancy. Our review found that biologic treatment decision at the individual level can be very complex as patient's decisions are influenced by social inputs from family and trusted community members, biologic-related factors (negative injection experience, fear of needles, formulation, and unfamiliarity), cultural tenets (beliefs, values, perception of illness), and historical and systemic factors (past research injustices, socioeconomic status, patient-physician relationship, clinical trial representation). Some proposed solutions to address biologic treatment hesitancy among Black and Indigenous populations include increasing the number of Black and Indigenous researchers involved in and leading clinical trials, formally training physicians and healthcare workers to deliver culturally competent care, and eliminating financial barriers to accessing medications. Further research is needed to characterize and address race-based new treatment inequalities and hesitancy in Canada.

Systematic pharmacological analysis of agonistic and antagonistic fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 MAbs reveals a similar unique mode of action.

Fibroblast growth factor receptor 1 (FGFR1) is a receptor tyrosine kinase that plays a major role in developmental processes and metabolism. The dysregulation of FGFR1 through genetic aberrations leads to skeletal and metabolic diseases as well as cancer. For this reason, FGFR1 is a promising therapeutic target, yet a very challenging one due to potential on-target toxicity. More puzzling is that both agonistic and antagonistic FGFR1 antibodies are reported to exhibit similar toxicity profiles in vivo, namely weight loss. In this study, we aimed to assess and compare the mechanism of action of these molecules to better understand this apparent contradiction. By systematically comparing the binding of these antibodies and the activation or the inhibition of the major FGFR1 signaling events, we demonstrated that the molecules displayed similar properties and can behave either as an agonist or antagonist depending on the presence or the absence of the endogenous ligand. We further demonstrated that these findings translated in xenografts mice models. In addition, using time-resolved FRET and mass spectrometry analysis, we showed a functionally distinct FGFR1 active conformation in the presence of an antibody that preferentially activates the FGFR substrate 2 (FRS2)-dependent signaling pathway, demonstrating that modulating the geometry of a FGFR1 dimer can effectively change the signaling outputs and ultimately the activity of the molecule in preclinical studies. Altogether, our results highlighted how bivalent antibodies can exhibit both agonistic and antagonistic activities and have implications for targeting other receptor tyrosine kinases with antibodies.

Effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against hypoxic pneumonia and hospitalisation in Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea: An observational cohort study.

Background: Pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood mortality with Streptococcus pneumoniae a major contributor. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been introduced into immunisation programs in many low- to middle-income countries (LMICs) yet there is a paucity of data evaluating the effectiveness in these settings. We assess the effectiveness of 13-valent PCV (13vPCV) against hypoxic pneumonia, hospitalisation and other clinical endpoints in children <5 years living in Eastern Highlands Province, Papua New Guinea (PNG). Methods: Data from two consecutive prospective observational studies (2013-2019) enrolling children <60 months presenting with pneumonia were included. Hypoxic pneumonia was defined as oxygen saturations <90%. Outcomes included hospitalisation, severe clinical pneumonia and death. 13vPCV status was determined using written records. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the odds ratios of key outcomes by 13vPCV vaccination status adjusted for confounders using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Findings: Data from 2067 children (median age; 9 months [IQR: 5-11]) were included. 739 children (36.1%) were hypoxic and 623 (30.4%) hospitalised. Twelve children (0.6% of total cohort) died in hospital. 670 children (32.7%) were fully 13vPCV-vaccinated. 13vPCV vaccination was associated with a 28.7% reduction (95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.9; 43.6%) in hypoxic pneumonia and a 57.4% reduction (38.0; 70.7%) in pneumonia hospitalisation. Interpretation: 13vPCV vaccination is effective against hypoxic pneumonia and pneumonia hospitalisation in PNG children. Strategies to improve access to and coverage of 13vPCV in PNG and other similar LMICs are urgently required. Funding: Funded by Pfizer Global and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Factors associated with pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage: A systematic review.

Pneumococcal disease is a major contributor to global childhood morbidity and mortality and is more common in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) than in high-income countries. Pneumococcal carriage is a prerequisite for pneumococcal disease. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccine reduces vaccine-type carriage and disease. However, pneumococcal carriage and disease persist, and it is important to identify other potentially modifiable factors associated with pneumococcal carriage and determine if risk factors differ between low, middle, and high-income countries. This information may help inform pneumococcal disease prevention programs. This systematic literature review describes factors associated with pneumococcal carriage stratified by country income status and summarises pneumococcal carriage rates for included studies. We undertook a systematic search of English-language pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage studies up to 30th June 2021. Peer-reviewed studies reporting factors associated with overall pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage in healthy, community-based study populations were eligible for inclusion. Two researchers independently reviewed studies to determine eligibility. Results are presented as narrative summaries. This review is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42020186914. Eighty-two studies were included, and 46 (56%) were conducted in LMICs. There was heterogeneity in the factors assessed in each study. Factors positively associated with pneumococcal carriage in all income classification were young age, ethnicity, symptoms of respiratory tract infection, childcare attendance, living with young children, poverty, exposure to smoke, season, and co-colonisation with other pathogens. Breastfeeding and antibiotic use were protective against carriage in all income classifications. Median (interquartile range) pneumococcal carriage rates differed by income classification, ranging from 51% (19.3-70.2%), 38.5% (19.3-51.6%), 31.5% (19.0-51.0%), 28.5% (16.8-35.4%), (P = 0.005) in low-, lower-middle, upper-middle, and high-income classifications, respectively. Our findings suggest that where measured, factors associated with pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage are similar across income classifications, despite the highest pneumococcal carriage rates being in low-income classifications. Reducing viral transmission through vaccination and public health interventions to address social determinants of health would play an important role.

Nasopharyngeal Pneumococcal Colonization Density Is Associated With Severe Pneumonia in Young Children in the Lao People's Democratic Republic.

BACKGROUND: No studies have explored the association between pneumococcal nasopharyngeal density and severe pneumonia using the World Health Organization (WHO) 2013 definition. In Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), we determine the association between nasopharyngeal pneumococcal density and severe pneumonia in children. METHODS: A prospective observational study was undertaken at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, from 2014 to mid-2018. Children <5 years admitted with acute respiratory infections (ARIs) were included. Clinical and demographic data were collected alongside nasopharyngeal swabs for pneumococcal quantification by lytA real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Severe pneumonia was defined using the 2013 WHO definition. For pneumococcal carriers, a logistic regression model examined the association between pneumococcal density and severe pneumonia, after adjusting for potential confounders including demographic and household factors, 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine status, respiratory syncytial virus co-detection, and preadmission antibiotics. RESULTS: Of 1268 participants with ARI, 32.3% (n = 410) had severe pneumonia and 36.9% (n = 468) had pneumococcal carriage. For pneumococcal carriers, pneumococcal density was positively associated with severe pneumonia (adjusted odds ratio, 1.4 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.8]; P = .020). CONCLUSIONS: Among children with ARIs and pneumococcal carriage, pneumococcal carriage density was positively associated with severe pneumonia in Lao PDR. Further studies may determine if pneumococcal density is a useful marker for pneumococcal conjugate vaccine impact on childhood pneumonia.

Evaluation strategies for measuring pneumococcal conjugate vaccine impact in low-resource settings.

OBJECTIVES: Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are effective in reducing pneumococcal disease. We measured 13-valent PCV (PCV13) effect on different pneumococcal outcomes using diverse studies in Lao People's Democratic Republic. METHODS: Studies included: pre-PCV13 population-based record review of hospitalized childhood pneumonia cases; acute respiratory infection (ARI) study post-PCV13 to demonstrate effectiveness (VE) against hypoxic pneumonia; invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) surveillance in all ages (2004-2018); carriage studies in children hospitalized with ARI (2013-2019); community carriage surveys pre- and post-PCV13. RESULTS: Annual pneumonia incidence rate in children pre-PCV13 was 1,530 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1,477-1,584) per 100,000. Adjusted VE against hypoxic pneumonia was 37% (95% CI 6-57%). For IPD, 85% (11/13) of cases were due to vaccine-types pre-PCV13, and 43% (3/7) post-PCV13 in children aged <5 years; for ≥5 years, 61% (27/44) and 42% (17/40), respectively. For ARI cases, adjusted VE for vaccine-type carriage was 39% (95% CI 4-60) in <5 year olds; slightly higher than community surveys (23% [95% CI 4-39%] in 12-23 month olds). CONCLUSIONS: Despite limited baseline data, we found evidence of PCV13 impact on disease and carriage. Our approach could be used in similar settings to augment existing WHO PCV evaluation guidelines.

Racism complaints in the Australian health system: an overview of existing approaches and some recommendations.

Patients from racial/ethnic minority backgrounds can experience racism and race-based discrimination in the health system, enduring unfair and inferior treatment that negatively affects physical and mental health and well-being and may, in some cases, lead to premature and avoidable death. Racism within the health system also acts as a deterrent to health care access because individuals may choose to avoid healthcare settings for fear of repeated exposure to racism. Racism and its impacts in health are well documented and health care-related regulatory organisations and antidiscrimination commissions in Australia are the recipients of racism complaints that occur within the health system. However, the extent and nature of complaints of racism in healthcare settings (i.e. self-reported incidents of racism) and how they are managed by regulatory organisations and antidiscrimination commissions are not well understood. This paper provides a summary of existing approaches to complaints in the Australian health system related to healthcare regulatory organisations and antidiscrimination commissions. We offer recommendations for improvements to data collection and dissemination of racism complaints to better understand the nature and extent of racism and race-based discrimination in the health system, and thus inform changes to process and practices that will reduce the incidence of racism and improve health outcomes. What is known about the topic? Patient complaints of racism in the health system are received by health care-related regulatory organisations and antidiscrimination commissions. However, the extent and nature of the complaints of racism in healthcare settings and how they are managed are not well understood. What does the paper add? This paper provides a summary of existing approaches to complaints in the Australian health system related to healthcare regulatory organisations and antidiscrimination commissions. We identify ways that existing complaints processes and mechanisms can be strengthened to enhance the safety and quality of patient care. What are the implications for practitioners? Practitioners, healthcare managers and policy makers can enhance existing complaints processes and mechanisms in order to improve the collection and use of healthcare racism complaints that can inform strategies to reduce healthcare racism and improve patient care.

Direct and indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in children hospitalised with pneumonia from formal and informal settlements in Mongolia: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Within Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, risk factors for pneumonia are concentrated among children living in informal settlements comprised of temporary shelters (gers). We used pneumococcal carriage surveillance among children from formal and informal settlements hospitalised with pneumonia to evaluate the direct and indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) against vaccine-type (VT) pneumococcal carriage following a phased introduction of PCV13. METHODS: We enrolled and collected nasopharyngeal swabs from children 2-59 months of age presenting to hospital. Pneumococci were detected using lytA qPCR and serotyped using microarray on a random monthly selection of swabs between November 2015 and March 2019 from two districts in Ulaanbaatar. PCV13 status was determined using written records. We quantified the associations between individual PCV13 status (direct effects) and district-level PCV13 coverage (indirect effects) and VT carriage using generalised estimating equations and explored interactions by settlement type. FINDINGS: A total of 1 292 swabs from 6 046 participants were tested for pneumococci. Receipt of PCV13 and increasing PCV13 coverage independently reduced the risk of VT carriage. For each percent increase in PCV13 coverage, the adjusted odds of VT carriage decreased by 1•0% (OR 95% CI 0•983-0•996; p=0•001), with a predicted decrease in VT carriage rate from 29•1% to 13•1% as coverage reached 100%. There was a trend towards a slower decline within informal settlements (p=0•100). Adjusted PCV13 vaccine effectiveness against VT carriage was 39•1% (95% CI 11•4-58•1%, p=0•009). INTERPRETATION: Substantial indirect effects were observed following PCV13 introduction, including among children living within informal settlements. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.

Levels of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine coverage and indirect protection against invasive pneumococcal disease and pneumonia hospitalisations in Australia: An observational study.

BACKGROUND: There is limited empiric evidence on the coverage of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) required to generate substantial indirect protection. We investigate the association between population PCV coverage and indirect protection against invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) and pneumonia hospitalisations among undervaccinated Australian children. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Birth and vaccination records, IPD notifications, and hospitalisations were individually linked for children aged <5 years, born between 2001 and 2012 in 2 Australian states (New South Wales and Western Australia; 1.37 million children). Using Poisson regression models, we examined the association between PCV coverage, in small geographical units, and the incidence of (1) 7-valent PCV (PCV7)-type IPD; (2) all-cause pneumonia; and (3) pneumococcal and lobar pneumonia hospitalisation in undervaccinated children. Undervaccinated children received <2 doses of PCV at <12 months of age and no doses at ≥12 months of age. Potential confounding variables were selected for adjustment a priori with the assistance of a directed acyclic graph. There were strong inverse associations between PCV coverage and the incidence of PCV7-type IPD (adjusted incidence rate ratio [aIRR] 0.967, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.958 to 0.975, p-value < 0.001), and pneumonia hospitalisations (all-cause pneumonia: aIRR 0.991 95% CI 0.990 to 0.994, p-value < 0.001) among undervaccinated children. Subgroup analyses for children <4 months old, urban, rural, and Indigenous populations showed similar trends, although effects were smaller for rural and Indigenous populations. Approximately 50% coverage of PCV7 among children <5 years of age was estimated to prevent up to 72.5% (95% CI 51.6 to 84.4) of PCV7-type IPD among undervaccinated children, while 90% coverage was estimated to prevent 95.2% (95% CI 89.4 to 97.8). The main limitations of this study include the potential for differential loss to follow-up, geographical misclassification of children (based on residential address at birth only), and unmeasured confounders. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed substantial indirect protection at lower levels of PCV coverage than previously described-challenging assumptions that high levels of PCV coverage (i.e., greater than 90%) are required. Understanding the association between PCV coverage and indirect protection is a priority since the control of vaccine-type pneumococcal disease is a prerequisite for reducing the number of PCV doses (from 3 to 2). Reduced dose schedules have the potential to substantially reduce program costs while maintaining vaccine impact.

Indirect effects of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine on pneumococcal carriage in children hospitalised with acute respiratory infection despite heterogeneous vaccine coverage: an observational study in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

INTRODUCTION: Empiric data on indirect (herd) effects of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in settings with low or heterogeneous PCV coverage are limited. The indirect effects of PCV, which benefits both vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals, are mediated by reductions in vaccine-type (VT) carriage (a prerequisite for disease). The aim of this study among hospitalised children in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) is to determine the effectiveness of a 13-valent PCV (PCV13) against VT pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage (direct effects) and the association between village-level PCV13 coverage and VT carriage (indirect effects). METHODS: Pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage surveillance commenced in December 2013, shortly after PCV13 introduction (October 2013). We recruited and swabbed children aged 2-59 months admitted to hospital with acute respiratory infection. Pneumococci were detected using lytA quantitative real-time PCR and serotyped using microarray. PCV13 status and village-level PCV13 coverage were determined using written immunisation records. Associations between both PCV13 status and village-level PCV13 coverage and VT carriage were calculated using generalised estimating equations, controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: We enrolled 1423 participants and determined PCV13 coverage for 368 villages (269 863 children aged under 5 years). By 2017, median village-level vaccine coverage reached 37.5%, however, the IQR indicated wide variation among villages (24.1-56.4). Both receipt of PCV13 and the level of PCV13 coverage were independently associated with a reduced odds of VT carriage: adjusted PCV13 effectiveness was 38.1% (95% CI 4.1% to 60.0%; p=0.032); and for each per cent increase in PCV13 coverage, the estimated odds of VT carriage decreased by 1.1% (95% CI 0.0% to 2.2%; p=0.056). After adjustment, VT carriage decreased from 20.0% to 12.8% as PCV13 coverage increased from zero to 60% among under 5. CONCLUSIONS: Despite marked heterogeneity in PCV13 coverage, we found evidence of indirect effects in Lao PDR. Individual vaccination with PCV13 was effective against VT carriage.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of sofosbuvir and velpatasvir in chronic hepatitis C patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND: Current literature indicates that direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are cost-effective to treat compensated cirrhotic patients with hepatitis C. Although already funded by public payers, it is unknown whether it is economical to reimburse DAAs within the more advanced decompensated cirrhosis population. METHODS: A state-transition model was developed to conduct a cost-utility analysis of sofosbuvir-velpatasvir (SOF/VEL) plus ribavirin regimen for 12 weeks. The evaluated cohort had a mean age of 58 years and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) class B cirrhosis with decompensated symptoms. A scenario analysis was performed on CTP C patients. We used a payer perspective, a lifetime time horizon and a 1.5% annual discount rate. RESULTS: While SOF/VEL plus ribavirin treatment for 12 weeks increased costs by $156 676, it provided an extra 4.00 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) compared to best supportive care (no DAA therapy). With an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $39 169 per QALY, SOF/VEL plus ribavirin was determined to be cost-effective at a willingness to pay of $50 000 per QALY. SOF/VEL reduced liver-related deaths and reduced progression to CTP C cirrhosis by 20.4% and 21.9%, respectively. On the contrary, SOF/VEL regimen resulted in increases in liver transplants and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by 54.0% and 42.5%, respectively. Similar results were found for CTP C patients. CONCLUSION: This analysis informs payers that SOF/VEL should continue to be reimbursed in decompensated hepatitis C patients. It also supports the recommendations by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases to continue screening for HCC in decompensated cirrhotic patients who have achieved sustained virologic response.

The effectiveness of the 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine against hypoxic pneumonia in children in Lao People's Democratic Republic: An observational hospital-based test-negative study.

BACKGROUND: Pneumococcal pneumonia is a leading cause of childhood mortality. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have been shown to reduce hypoxic pneumonia in children. However, there are no studies from Asia examining the effectiveness of PCVs on hypoxic pneumonia. We describe a novel approach to determine the effectiveness of the 13-valent PCV (PCV13) against hypoxia in children admitted with pneumonia in the Lao People's Democratic Republic. METHODS: A prospective hospital-based, test-negative observational study of children aged up to 59 months admitted with pneumonia to a single tertiary hospital in Vientiane was undertaken over 54 months. Pneumonia was defined using the 2013 WHO definition. Hypoxia was defined as oxygen saturation <90% in room air or requiring oxygen supplementation during hospitalisation. Test-negative cases and controls were children with hypoxic and non-hypoxic pneumonia, respectively. PCV13 status was determined by written record. Vaccine effectiveness was calculated using logistic regression. Propensity score and multiple imputation analyses were used to handle confounding and missing data. FINDINGS: There were 826 children admitted with pneumonia, 285 had hypoxic pneumonia and 377 were PCV13-vaccinated. The unadjusted, propensity-score adjusted and multiple-imputation adjusted estimates of vaccine effectiveness against hypoxic pneumonia were 23% (95% confidence interval: -9, 46%; p=0•14); 37% (6, 57%; p=0•02) and 35% (7, 55%; p=0•02) respectively. INTERPRETATION: PCV13 is effective against hypoxic pneumonia in Asia, and should be prioritised for inclusion in national immunisation programs. This single hospital-based, test-negative approach can be used to assess vaccine effectiveness in other similar settings. FUNDING: Funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) in Bangladesh: Systematic Review of Existing Literature and Transmission Modelling of Seroprevalence Studies.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is the leading cause of vaccine-preventable congenital anomalies. Comprehensive country-level data on the burden of CRS in low and middle-income countries, such as Bangladesh, are scarce. This information is essential for assessing the impact of rubella vaccination programs. We aim to systematically review the literature on the epidemiology of CRS and estimate the burden of CRS in Bangladesh. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of existing literature and transmission modelling of seroprevalence studies to estimate the pre-vaccine period burden of CRS in Bangladesh. OVID Medline (1948 - 23 November 2016) and OVID EMBASE (1974 - 23 November 2016) were searched using a combination of the database-specific controlled vocabulary and free text terms. We used an age-stratified deterministic model to estimate the pre-vaccination burden of CRS in Bangladesh. FINDINGS: Ten articles were identified, published between 2000 and 2014, including seven crosssectional studies, two case series and one analytical case-control study. Rubella seropositivity ranged from 47.0% to 86.0% among all age population. Rubella sero-positivity increased with age. Rubella seropositivity among women of childbearing age was 81.0% overall. The estimated incidence of CRS was 0·99 per 1,000 live births, which corresponds to approximately 3,292 CRS cases annually in Bangladesh. CONCLUSION: The estimated burden of CRS in Bangladesh during the pre-vaccination period was high. This will provide important baseline information to assess the impact and cost-effectiveness of routine rubella immunisation, introduced in 2012 in Bangladesh.

Using pneumococcal carriage studies to monitor vaccine impact in low- and middle-income countries.

Pneumococcal disease is a leading cause of childhood mortality, globally. The pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been introduced to many countries worldwide. However there are few studies evaluating PCV impacts in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) because measuring the impact of PCV on pneumococcal disease in LMICs is challenging. We review the role of pneumococcal carriage studies for the evaluation of PCVs in LMICs and discuss optimal methods for conducting these studies. Fifteen carriage studies from 13 LMICs quantified the effects of PCV on carriage, and identified replacement carriage serotypes in the post-PCV era. Ten studies reported on the indirect effects of PCV on carriage. Results can be used to inform cost-effectiveness evaluations, guide policy decisions on dosing and product, and monitor equity in program implementation. Critically, we highlight gaps in our understanding of serotype replacement disease in LMICs and identify priorities for research to address this gap.

Impact of the change in WHO's severe pneumonia case definition on hospitalized pneumonia epidemiology: case studies from six countries.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the impact of the change in definition of severe pneumonia on documented pneumonia burden. METHODS: We reviewed existing data acquired during observational hospitalized pneumonia studies, before the introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine, in infants aged 2-23 months from Fiji, Gambia, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malawi, Mongolia and Viet Nam. We used clinical data to calculate the percentage of all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations with severe pneumonia, and with primary end-point consolidation, according to both the 2005 or 2013 World Health Organization (WHO) definitions. Where population data were available, we also calculated the incidence of severe pneumonia hospitalizations according to the different definitions. FINDINGS: At six of the seven sites, the percentages of all-cause pneumonia hospitalizations due to severe pneumonia were significantly less (P < 0.001) according to the 2013 WHO definition compared with the 2005 definition. However, the percentage of severe pneumonia hospitalizations, according to the two definitions of severe pneumonia, with primary end-point consolidation varied little within each site. The annual incidences of severe pneumonia hospitalizations per 100 000 infants were significantly less (all P < 0.001) according to the 2013 definition compared with the 2005 definition, ranging from a difference of -301.0 (95% confidence interval, CI: -405.2 to -196.8) in Fiji to -3242.6 (95% CI: -3695.2 to -2789.9) in the Gambia. CONCLUSION: The revision of WHO's definition of severe pneumonia affects pneumonia epidemiology, and hence the interpretation of any pneumonia intervention impact evaluation.