Keeping Sane in a Changing Climate: Assessing Psychologists' Preparedness, Exposure to Climate-Health Impacts, Willingness to Act on Climate Change, and Barriers to Effective Action.

Evidence of the impact of climate change on mental health is growing rapidly, and healthcare professionals are being called to be active participants in protecting the population's health. Yet, little is known about psychologists' understanding of climate-health impacts and their role in mitigation actions. We surveyed Australian psychologists (N = 59) to examine preparedness in identifying and managing the impact of climate change on mental health, exposure to climate-health impacts, willingness to act, and barriers to acting on climate change. Data was analysed through descriptive and associative methods. We found that participants are not prepared to identify and manage mental health presentations related to climate change, and they are not engaged in climate change mitigation. We identified that a lack of knowledge of climate-health impacts and tackling and mitigation strategies, in addition to ethical concerns, were the main barriers to engagement with communication and advocacy. With the impacts of climate change on mental health expected to soar, there is a clear and urgent need to prepare the psychological workforce to address this public health issue by establishing professional education programs and reframing climate change as a health crisis.

Using a systems thinking approach to explore the complex relationships between schizophrenia and premature mortality.

BACKGROUND: People with schizophrenia have a higher risk of mortality compared to the general population, which has not improved over time. The majority of premature deaths are due to comorbid physical diseases, driven by interrelated factors operating at the individual level, through health systems and influenced by social determinants of health. A holistic understanding of this problem and the causal pathways linking these factors together is lacking. AIMS: This study aims to understand why the mortality gap between people with schizophrenia and the general population is not improving by developing a causal loop diagram (CLD), a systems thinking approach which enables empirical research and theoretical knowledge to be combined into a visual representation of causal relationships and feedback loops. METHOD: The CLD was constructed using published literature, including both quantitative and qualitative studies, to identify key variables and relationships, and refined through consultation with experts in the topic area. RESULTS: A total of 21 variables and 68 connections were included in the CLD, with 23 distinct feedback loops identified. Stigma and social support had the most connections, while unemployment was involved in the greatest number of feedback loops. Most feedback mechanisms served to reinforce behavioural risk factors, inadequate healthcare and social disadvantage. CONCLUSIONS: The CLD has created a holistic and dynamic understanding of the causal pathways driving the mortality gap between people with schizophrenia and the general population, providing insights into why it has persisted over time. One of the key findings was the critical role of social determinants in shaping health outcomes, highlighting the need for person-centred models of care and multisectoral government action.

Transforming mental health systems globally: principles and policy recommendations.

A burgeoning mental health crisis is emerging globally, regardless of each country's human resources or spending. We argue that effectively responding to this crisis is impeded by the dominant framing of mental ill health through the prism of diagnostic categories, leading to an excessive reliance on interventions that are delivered by specialists; a scarcity of widespread promotive, preventive, and recovery-oriented strategies; and failure to leverage diverse resources within communities. Drawing upon a series of syntheses, we identify five principles to transform current practices; namely, address harmful social environments across the life course, particularly in the early years; ensure that care is not contingent on a categorical diagnosis but aligned with the staging model of mental illness; empower diverse front-line providers to deliver psychosocial interventions; embrace a rights-based approach that seeks to provide alternatives to violence and coercion in care; and centre people with lived experience in all aspects of care. We recommend four policy actions which can transform these principles into reality: a whole of society approach to prevention and care; a redesign of the architecture of care delivery to provide a seamless continuum of care, tailored to the severity of the mental health condition; investing more in what works to enhance the impact and value of the investments; and ensuring accountability through monitoring and acting upon a set of mental health indicators. All these actions are achievable, relying-for the most part-on resources already available to every community and country. What they do require is the acceptance that business as usual will fail and the solutions to transforming mental health-care systems are already present within existing resources.

Three Reasons Why Expecting 'Recovery' in the Context of the Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change Is Problematic.

Global warming is bringing with it continued long-term changes in the climate system. Extreme weather-related events, which are already becoming a daily reality around the world, are predicted to be more intense and frequent in the future. The widespread occurrence of these events and climate change more broadly are being experienced collectively and at scale and do not affect populations evenly. These climate changes have profound impacts on mental health and wellbeing. Existing reactive responses include frequent implied and direct references to the concept of 'recovery'. This is problematic in three ways: it conceives of extreme weather events as single, one-off occurrences; implies their unexpected nature; and contains an integral assumption of an end point where individuals/communities are 'recovered'. Models of mental health and wellbeing support (including funding) need to change, shifting away from 'recovery' towards a focus on adaptation. We argue that this presents a more constructive approach that may be used to collectively support communities.

The clinical implications of climate change for mental health.

Climate change affects mental health through multiple pathways, including direct and indirect impacts, physical health and awareness of the climate crisis. Climate change increases the magnitude and frequency of extreme events with little or no time for recovery. This Review aims to provide an overview of the current evidence to inform the mental health field's response to climate change. While further innovation is needed, promising approaches for health professionals are identified at the levels of interventions for individuals, community and system-wide responses, and advocacy and education. Health worker training is important, so we offer guidance on mental health assessment and clinical risks from climate change. We also outline strategies to enhance individual and community psychological resilience and promising approaches to working with people experiencing emerging climate-related disorders. Beyond clinical care, mental health professionals can lead on climate action and sustainability in health care and can research and educate on the health effects of climate change.

The 2022 report of the MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: Australia unprepared and paying the price.

The MJA-Lancet Countdown on health and climate change in Australia was established in 2017 and produced its first national assessment in 2018 and annual updates in 2019, 2020 and 2021. It examines five broad domains: climate change impacts, exposures and vulnerability; adaptation, planning and resilience for health; mitigation actions and health co-benefits; economics and finance; and public and political engagement. In this, the fifth year of the MJA-Lancet Countdown, we track progress on an extensive suite of indicators across these five domains, accessing and presenting the latest data and further refining and developing our analyses. Within just two years, Australia has experienced two unprecedented national catastrophes - the 2019-2020 summer heatwaves and bushfires and the 2021-2022 torrential rains and flooding. Such events are costing lives and displacing tens of thousands of people. Further, our analysis shows that there are clear signs that Australia's health emergency management capacity substantially decreased in 2021. We find some signs of progress with respect to health and climate change. The states continue to lead the way in health and climate change adaptation planning, with the Victorian plan being published in early 2022. At the national level, we note progress in health and climate change research funding by the National Health and Medical Research Council. We now also see an acceleration in the uptake of electric vehicles and continued uptake of and employment in renewable energy. However, we also find Australia's transition to renewables and zero carbon remains unacceptably slow, and the Australian Government's continuing failure to produce a national climate change and health adaptation plan places the health and lives of Australians at unnecessary risk today, which does not bode well for the future.

Quantitative methods for climate change and mental health research: current trends and future directions.

The quantitative literature on climate change and mental health is growing rapidly. However, the methodological quality of the evidence is heterogeneous, and there is scope for methodological improvement and innovation. The first section of this Personal View provides a snapshot of current methodological trends and issues in the quantitative literature on climate change and mental health, drawing on literature collected through a previous scoping review. The second part of this Personal View outlines opportunities for methodological innovation concerning the assessment of the relationship between climate change and mental health. We then highlight possible methodological innovations in intervention research and in the measurement of climate change and mental health-related variables. This section draws upon methods from public mental health, environmental epidemiology, and other fields. The objective is not to provide a detailed description of different methodological techniques, but rather to highlight opportunities to use diverse methods, collaborate across disciplines, and inspire methodological innovation. The reader will be referred to practical guidance on different methods when available. We hope this Personal View will constitute a roadmap and launching pad for methodological innovation for researchers interested in investigating a rapidly growing area of research.

Excess mortality in severe mental disorders: A systematic review and meta-regression.

The excess mortality observed in people with severe mental disorders (SMD) has not improved over time and is not captured in estimates of disease burden. This study aimed to improve upon previous analytic approaches to account for potential sources of heterogeneity in pooled mortality estimates. A systematic review of studies examining excess mortality in people with psychotic disorders and bipolar disorder was conducted. PubMed, EMBASE and PsycINFO were searched from January 1, 1980 to 31/12/20. Studies were eligible if they were longitudinal; the study population was diagnosed according to established criteria, not restricted to subgroups and the disorder was primary and not acute or transient; and mortality was reported in comparison to the general population or a control group without SMD. Meta-regression models were used to calculate pooled relative risks (RRs) of all-cause and cause-specific mortality adjusted for study- and population-level covariates. Risk of bias was assessed using an adaptation of the Newcastle-Ottawa scale. A total of 76 studies were included in the analyses. Covariates incorporated into the final models included age, sex, population type and mid-year. The adjusted RR for all-cause mortality in schizophrenia was 2.89 (95% CI 2.50 to 3.34) and 2.51 (95%CI 2.10 to 3.00) for bipolar disorder. There were larger RRs for broader categories of psychotic disorders. Mortality was elevated in each cause of death examined. Most of the heterogeneity between studies could not be accounted for. Future research should investigate underlying causal pathways and find ways to incorporate the excess mortality associated with SMD into global health estimates.

Modelling mental health service needs of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples: a review of existing evidence and expert consensus.

OBJECTIVE: To identify key mental health service components required for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples and develop proposed modelling to modify the National Mental Health Service Planning Framework to account for the unique needs of these populations. METHODS: Service areas and corresponding modelling rules were informed by a review and analysis of literature and data (on existing service models and policy directions) and expert group discussions on the important aspects of mental health care for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. RESULTS: Eight key service areas were identified and translated into proposed modelling rules for service planning: culturally appropriate assessment; increased care coordination; more family and carer involvement and support; specified workforce; holistic primary care teams; enhanced staffing for inpatient care; integrating culture; and earlier support for behavioural and psychological symptoms of dementia. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a consolidated framework and implementation guidance to support more effective mental health service planning for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Better supporting planners to make informed decisions regarding mental health service provision for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples will assist in a nationally coordinated approach to closing the mental health gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous peoples.

Global priorities for climate change and mental health research.

BACKGROUND: Compared with other health areas, the mental health impacts of climate change have received less research attention. The literature on climate change and mental health is growing rapidly but is characterised by several limitations and research gaps. In a field where the need for designing evidence-based adaptation strategies is urgent, and research gaps are vast, implementing a broad, all-encompassing research agenda will require some strategic focus. METHODS: We followed a structured approach to prioritise future climate change and mental health research. We consulted with experts working across mental health and climate change, both within and outside of research and working in high, middle, and low-income countries, to garner consensus about the future research priorities for mental health and climate change. Experts were identified based on whether they had published work on climate change and mental health, worked in governmental and non-governmental organisations on climate change and mental health, and from the professional networks of the authors who have been active in the mental health and climate change space. RESULTS: Twenty-two experts participated from across low- and middle-income countries (n = 4) and high-income countries (n = 18). Our process identified ten key priorities for progressing research on mental health and climate change. CONCLUSION: While climate change is considered the biggest threat to global mental health in the coming century, tackling this threat could be the most significant opportunity to shape our mental health for centuries to come because of health co-benefits of transitioning to more sustainable ways of living. Research on the impacts of climate change on mental health and mental health-related systems will assist decision-makers to develop robust evidence-based mitigation and adaptation policies and plans with the potential for broad benefits to society and the environment.

Global estimates of service coverage for severe mental disorders: findings from the WHO Mental Health Atlas 2017.

BACKGROUND: The study estimated service coverage for severe mental disorders (psychosis, bipolar disorder and moderate-severe depression), globally and regionally, using data collected from the Mental Health Atlas 2017. METHODS: Service coverage was defined as the proportion of people with a disorder contacting a mental health service among those estimated to have the disorder during a 12-month period. We drew upon 12-month service utilisation data from the Mental Health Atlas 2017. Expected prevalent cases of individual disorders were estimated using the disorder-specific prevalence rate estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 and total population sizes. Methods for assessing the validity of country-reported service utilisation data were developed and applied. OUTCOMES: From 177 countries, 50 countries provided reliable service coverage estimates for psychosis, along with 56 countries for bipolar disorder, and 65 countries for depression. The mean service coverage for psychosis was lowest in low- [10.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.3-30.4)] and lower middle-income countries [21.5% (95% CI 11.9-35.7)] and highest in high-income countries [59.5% (95% CI 42.9-74.1)]. Service coverage for bipolar disorder ranged between 3.1% (95% CI 0.8-11.5) and 10.4% (95% CI 6.7-15.8). Mean service coverage for moderate-severe depression ranged between 2.9% (95% CI 1.3-6.3) for low-income countries and 31.1% (95% CI 18.3-47.6) for high-income countries. INTERPRETATION: The reporting method utilised by the Mental Health Atlas appears to be reliable for psychosis but not for depression. This method of estimating service coverage provides progress in tracking an important indicator for mental health; however, it highlights that considerable work is needed to further develop global mental health information systems.

Climate Change and Mental Health: A Scoping Review.

Climate change is negatively impacting the mental health of populations. This scoping review aims to assess the available literature related to climate change and mental health across the World Health Organisation's (WHO) five global research priorities for protecting human health from climate change. We conducted a scoping review to identify original research studies related to mental health and climate change using online academic databases. We assessed the quality of studies where appropriate assessment tools were available. We identified 120 original studies published between 2001 and 2020. Most studies were quantitative (n = 67), cross-sectional (n = 42), conducted in high-income countries (n = 87), and concerned with the first of the WHO global research priorities-assessing the mental health risks associated with climate change (n = 101). Several climate-related exposures, including heat, humidity, rainfall, drought, wildfires, and floods were associated with psychological distress, worsened mental health, and higher mortality among people with pre-existing mental health conditions, increased psychiatric hospitalisations, and heightened suicide rates. Few studies (n = 19) addressed the other four global research priorities of protecting health from climate change (effective interventions (n = 8); mitigation and adaptation (n = 7); improving decision-support (n = 3); and cost estimations (n = 1)). While climate change and mental health represents a rapidly growing area of research, it needs to accelerate and broaden in scope to respond with evidence-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Multimorbidity and vulnerability among those living with psychosis in Indigenous populations in Cape York and the Torres Strait.

OBJECTIVE: Previous research has found an alarmingly high rate of psychosis in Indigenous1 patients from remote communities of Cape York and the Torres Strait with the treated prevalence of psychosis four times higher than that found for the Australian population. This study assesses comorbid illness and risk factors among this same cohort of psychosis patients. METHODS: Data were collated from a clinical database that contains complete psychiatric records from 1992 to 2015, extracted for all Indigenous patients who received treatment for a psychotic disorder from the Remote Area Mental Health Service. Descriptive analysis and logistic regression models explored differences across subgroups of ethnicity and sex, and relationships between co-morbid disorders and risk factors. All multivariate models included variables of age, year of birth, sex and ethnicity. RESULTS: Sixty per cent of participants (n = 256) experienced a comorbid mental or substance use disorder. Forty-five per cent (n = 192) of participants experienced a physical comorbidity. The most frequent physical health outcomes were injury (29%, n = 93), diabetes (18%, n = 58) and cardiovascular disease (21%, n = 68). Risk factors considered to play a potential biological or neurodevelopmental role in the development of psychosis were approximately three times more likely in Aboriginal (odds ratio = 3.2; 95% confidence interval = [2.0, 4.9]) versus Torres Strait Islander patients, and those born after 1980 (odds ratio = 2.5; 95% confidence interval = [1.6, 3.9]) versus those born prior to 1980. Environmental or contextual factors were associated with significantly greater risk among Aboriginal (odds ratio = 3.8; 95% confidence interval = [2.4, 6.0]) compared with Torres Strait Islander patients. CONCLUSION: Our data expose the perinatal and early environment of Indigenous children who later developed a psychotic disorder. As risk factors for schizophrenia may be cumulative and interactive, both with each other and with critical periods of neurodevelopmental vulnerability, our results suggest possible causes for the increasing prevalence of psychotic disorders between 1992 and 2015.

Incarceration among adults living with psychosis in Indigenous populations in Cape York and the Torres Strait.

OBJECTIVE: The relationship between psychosis and contact with the criminal justice system for Indigenous people living in rural and remote areas is not well understood. In this study, the authors examine patterns of incarceration among Indigenous people living with psychosis in Cape York and the Torres Strait over two decades. METHODS: Data were collated from a clinical database of complete psychiatric records from 1992 to 2015, extracted for all Indigenous patients with a psychotic disorder from the Remote Area Mental Health Service, and linked to the Queensland Corrections Service database. Descriptive statistics were calculated to compare characteristics between those incarcerated and those not incarcerated during the study period and to quantify patterns of incarceration including types of offences, time spent in custody and frequency of incarceration. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to assess associations between reported variables and 'first incarceration'. RESULTS: Forty-five percent of Aboriginal patients (n = 116) were incarcerated compared with 31% of Torres Strait Islanders (n = 41) (p = 0.008), and the proportion of males incarcerated (51%, n = 141) was approximately twice that of females (24%, n = 35; p = 0.001). A cluster of first incarcerations were observed in close time proximity to diagnosis of psychosis. Individuals who had a history of both alcohol and cannabis use had approximately two times higher risk of being incarcerated following positive diagnosis compared to those without a history of substance use (hazard ratio = 1.85; 95% confidence interval: [1.08, 3.17]; p = 0.028). Males accounted for approximately 85% (n = 328) of sentences. The most common most serious offence was causing physical harm to others (assault - n = 122, 31%). CONCLUSION: Our study found that for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with a psychotic disorder in North Queensland, criminal justice responses with resultant incarceration occurs frequently. Access to appropriate mental health services and diversion options for Indigenous Australians with psychosis should be a key public health and justice priority.

A comprehensive analysis of mortality-related health metrics associated with mental disorders: a nationwide, register-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Systematic reviews have consistently shown that individuals with mental disorders have an increased risk of premature mortality. Traditionally, this evidence has been based on relative risks or crude estimates of reduced life expectancy. The aim of this study was to compile a comprehensive analysis of mortality-related health metrics associated with mental disorders, including sex-specific and age-specific mortality rate ratios (MRRs) and life-years lost (LYLs), a measure that takes into account age of onset of the disorder. METHODS: In this population-based cohort study, we included all people younger than 95 years of age who lived in Denmark at some point between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2015. Information on mental disorders was obtained from the Danish Psychiatric Central Research Register and the date and cause of death was obtained from the Danish Register of Causes of Death. We classified mental disorders into ten groups and causes of death into 11 groups, which were further categorised into natural causes (deaths from diseases and medical conditions) and external causes (suicide, homicide, and accidents). For each specific mental disorder, we estimated MRRs using Poisson regression models, adjusting for sex, age, and calendar time, and excess LYLs (ie, difference in LYLs between people with a mental disorder and the general population) for all-cause mortality and for each specific cause of death. FINDINGS: 7 369 926 people were included in our analysis. We found that mortality rates were higher for people with a diagnosis of a mental disorder than for the general Danish population (28·70 deaths [95% CI 28·57-28·82] vs 12·95 deaths [12·93-12·98] per 1000 person-years). Additionally, all types of disorders were associated with higher mortality rates, with MRRs ranging from 1·92 (95% CI 1·91-1·94) for mood disorders to 3·91 (3·87-3·94) for substance use disorders. All types of mental disorders were associated with shorter life expectancies, with excess LYLs ranging from 5·42 years (95% CI 5·36-5·48) for organic disorders in females to 14·84 years (14·70-14·99) for substance use disorders in males. When we examined specific causes of death, we found that males with any type of mental disorder lost fewer years due to neoplasm-related deaths compared with the general population, although their cancer mortality rates were higher. INTERPRETATION: Mental disorders are associated with premature mortality. We provide a comprehensive analysis of mortality by different types of disorders, presenting both MRRs and premature mortality based on LYLs, displayed by age, sex, and cause of death. By providing accurate estimates of premature mortality, we reveal previously underappreciated features related to competing risks and specific causes of death. FUNDING: Danish National Research Foundation.

Burden of non-communicable diseases in sub-Saharan Africa, 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Although the burden of disease in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be dominated by infectious diseases, countries in this region are undergoing a demographic transition leading to increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs). To inform health system responses to these changing patterns of disease, we aimed to assess changes in the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 to analyse the burden of NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa in terms of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs)-with crude counts as well as all-age and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population-with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We examined changes in burden between 1990 and 2017, and differences across age, sex, and regions. We also compared the observed NCD burden across countries with the expected values based on a country's Socio-demographic Index. FINDINGS: All-age total DALYs due to NCDs increased by 67·0% between 1990 (90·6 million [95% UI 81·0-101·9]) and 2017 (151·3 million [133·4-171·8]), reflecting an increase in the proportion of total DALYs attributable to NCDs (from 18·6% [95% UI 17·1-20·4] to 29·8% [27·6-32·0] of the total burden). Although most of this increase can be explained by population growth and ageing, the age-standardised DALY rate (per 100 000 population) due to NCDs in 2017 (21 757·7 DALYs [95% UI 19 377·1-24 380·7]) was almost equivalent to that of communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (26 491·6 DALYs [25 165·2-28 129·8]). Cardiovascular diseases were the second leading cause of NCD burden in 2017, resulting in 22·9 million (21·5-24·3) DALYs (15·1% of the total NCD burden), after the group of disorders categorised as other NCDs (28·8 million [25·1-33·0] DALYs, 19·1%). These categories were followed by neoplasms, mental disorders, and digestive diseases. Although crude DALY rates for all NCDs have decreased slightly across sub-Saharan Africa, age-standardised rates are on the rise in some countries (particularly those in southern sub-Saharan Africa) and for some NCDs (such as diabetes and some cancers, including breast and prostate cancer). INTERPRETATION: NCDs in sub-Saharan Africa are posing an increasing challenge for health systems, which have to date largely focused on tackling infectious diseases and maternal, neonatal, and child deaths. To effectively address these changing needs, countries in sub-Saharan Africa require detailed epidemiological data on NCDs. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Health and Medical Research Centre (Australia).

The Epidemiology of Psychosis in Indigenous Populations in Cape York and the Torres Strait.

BACKGROUND: The treated prevalence of psychotic disorders in remote communities of Cape York and the Torres Strait, Australia, has been shown to be elevated compared with the Australian population. Our study used a unique dataset to assess treated incidence and prevalence of psychotic disorders and mortality over a 23-year period in the adult Indigenous population of this region. METHODS: Data was collated from a clinical database that contains complete psychiatric records from 1992 to 2015, extracted for all Indigenous patients who received treatment for a psychotic disorder from the Remote Area Mental Health Service, and linked to the Queensland Deaths Registry. We calculated 12-month treated prevalence and incidence for each calendar year. Mortality rates were compared to the overall and Indigenous population death rates in Queensland. FINDINGS: Between 1992 and 2015, 424 patients were treated for psychosis - an age-standardised 12-month prevalence of 1·7% in 2015, approximately two times higher in men than women, and three times higher in Aboriginal versus Torres Strait Islander populations. The highest treated prevalence was observed in 2015 in Aboriginal men (4.0%). A range of psychotic disorders were detected, including many substance-induced cases (n = 93) and schizophrenia (n = 252). The age-standardised 12-month incidence rate over the study period was 3.61 per 1000 person-years for women and 4.23 per 1000 person-years for men. Treated prevalence increased throughout the study period, largely attributable to increases in incidence of schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder - in contrast, the incidence and prevalence of bipolar and mood disorders remained low and stable. Increased mortality risk compared to the Queensland Indigenous population (SMR = 1.9; 95% CI 1.4-2.6) was attributable to the elevated risk shown in the Aboriginal population in our study (SMR = 2.6; 95% CI 1.8-3.7). INTERPRETATION: Our results show extremely high prevalence rates of psychosis; increasing prevalence over time; differences in the distribution of psychosis between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; and increased mortality risk for Aboriginal people living with psychosis in this region. These observations strongly suggest an aetiological role of environmental and neurodevelopmental factors, and the contribution of social factors to vulnerability and premature mortality. ROLE OF THE FUNDING SOURCE: This study was funded by Queensland Health who are the custodians of this database. The funder had no role in study design, data analysis, data interpretation, writing of the report, or submission for publication. All authors had full access to all the study data. The corresponding author had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. FJC is supported by an Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Early Career Fellowship (APP1138488).

New WHO prevalence estimates of mental disorders in conflict settings: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Existing WHO estimates of the prevalence of mental disorders in emergency settings are more than a decade old and do not reflect modern methods to gather existing data and derive estimates. We sought to update WHO estimates for the prevalence of mental disorders in conflict-affected settings and calculate the burden per 1000 population. METHODS: In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we updated a previous systematic review by searching MEDLINE (PubMed), PsycINFO, and Embase for studies published between Jan 1, 2000, and Aug 9, 2017, on the prevalence of depression, anxiety disorder, post-traumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia. We also searched the grey literature, such as government reports, conference proceedings, and dissertations, to source additional data, and we searched datasets from existing literature reviews of the global prevalence of depression and anxiety and reference lists from the studies that were identified. We applied the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting and used Bayesian meta-regression techniques that adjust for predictors of mental disorders to calculate new point prevalence estimates with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) in settings that had experienced conflict less than 10 years previously. FINDINGS: We estimated that the prevalence of mental disorders (depression, anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia) was 22·1% (95% UI 18·8-25·7) at any point in time in the conflict-affected populations assessed. The mean comorbidity-adjusted, age-standardised point prevalence was 13·0% (95% UI 10·3-16·2) for mild forms of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress disorder and 4·0% (95% UI 2·9-5·5) for moderate forms. The mean comorbidity-adjusted, age-standardised point prevalence for severe disorders (schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, severe depression, severe anxiety, and severe post-traumatic stress disorder) was 5·1% (95% UI 4·0-6·5). As only two studies provided epidemiological data for psychosis in conflict-affected populations, existing Global Burden of Disease Study estimates for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder were applied in these estimates for conflict-affected populations. INTERPRETATION: The burden of mental disorders is high in conflict-affected populations. Given the large numbers of people in need and the humanitarian imperative to reduce suffering, there is an urgent need to implement scalable mental health interventions to address this burden. FUNDING: WHO; Queensland Department of Health, Australia; and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.