Prediction model of water content in surface dead fuel based on convolution neural network and meteoro-logical factors regression.

Water content of surface fuels is an important indicator of forest fire risk level and fire behavior, and the prediction model of which has a significant effect on fire risk prediction and management. Based on field meteorological factors of Quercus mongolica and Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica forests and water content data of dead fuels on the ground, we conducted the relative importance ranking of meteorological factors random forest and Pearson correlation analysis, and predicted water content of fuels using deeply learned convolutional neural network and meteorological factors regression. The results showed that water content of Q. mongolica fuels in the wild was significantly higher than that of P. sylvestris var. mongolica. The results of random forest showed that the factors that had significant effect on water content of fuel were humidity, temperature, rainfall, wind speed, and solar radiation, with the importance ranking from the largest to the smallest. Results of correlation analysis showed that temperature, humidity, and rainfall of current day had a significant impact on water content of fuels, and certain correlations were observed between meteorological factors. The prediction R2 of the convolutional neural network model for the surface fuel water content of Q. mongolica and P. sylvestris var. mongolica forest was 0.928 and 0.905, the mean absolute error (MAE) was 6.1% and 8.1%, and the mean relative error (MRE) was 8.9% and 4.2%, respectively. However, the R2, MAE, MRE of meteorological factors regression were 0.495 and 0.525, 30.5% and 39.5%, 52.1% and 32.6%, respectively. The precision of convolution neural network model was significantly higher than that of meteorological factors regression. Our results showed that the deeply learned convolutional neural network could provide some reference for the prediction of fuel water content in the future, and effectively support higher level forest fire management.

Prediction models of fire spread rate of Pinus koraiensis plantation's surface fuel.

Pinus koraiensis plantation has high fire risks due to high oil content in branches and leaves. The spread of surface fire is the main way of forest fire expansion. Understanding the surface fire spread rate can provide scientific guidance for fire fighting. We carried out a laboratory experiment with surface fuel of Pinus koraiensis plantation in Maoershan area of Heilongjiang Province. We set different levels of fuel moisture contents (5%, 15%, 25%), fuel loads (0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.1 kg·m-2), and slope (0°, 10°, 20°, 30°, 40°) to simulate the characteristics of fuel bed in the field, and quantified the spread rate by thermocouple method. We further compared and analyzed the prediction accuracy of Rothermel model, modified Rothermel model and random forest model, and evaluated the optimal model for predicting the surface fire spread rate of P. koraiensis plantation. The results showed that the overall efficacy of directly using the Rothermel model to predict the surface fire spread rate of P. koraiensis plantations was good, but the prediction result of the spread rate under the conditions of high slope and high moisture content was not satisfied. The Rothermel model after refitting the slope parameters and the random forest model had good prediction efficacy and similar prediction accuracy. The random forest model needed to be further evaluated and verified due to its own characteristics. The modified Rothermel model was more suitable for predicting the surface fire spread rate of P. koraiensis plantations at a slope range of 0°-40° than the others.

[Pyrolysis and gas emissions characteristics of six tree species in Heilongjiang Province, China]. / 黑龙江省6种乔木叶片热解特性及气体释放特征.

Forest fuels are the basis of fire occurrences, while ground dead fuels are an important part of forest fuels. Undestanding the pyrolysis characteristics and gas emissions of forest fuels is of great significance to explore the effects of forest fire on atmospheric environment and carbon balance, as well as to prevent and combat forest fire. In this study, the thermogravimetric analysis and gas emission analysis were conducted on leaf litter of six tree species (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica, Picea koraiensis, Fraxinus mandshurica, Juglans mandshurica, Quercus mongolica, Betula platyphylla) in Heilongjiang Province to explore the pyrolysis process and combustibility of forest fuels, to analyze their pyrolysis characteristics, pyrolysis kinetics characteristics, gas emission characteristics. A four-dimensional evaluation of their combustibility was conducted based on pyrolysis parameters. The results showed that the pyrolysis temperature of holocellulose in the leaves of those six tree species ranged in 143.31-180.48 ℃ at the beginning and 345.04-394.38 ℃ at the end, lignin pyrolysis temperature ranged in 345.04-394.38 ℃ at the beginning and 582.85-609.31 ℃ at the end. The pyrolysis of the six kinds of arbor blades during the pyrolysis process affected fuel ash content, quality and temperature of the total pyrolysis. The activation energies of two main pyrolysis stages of leaves of six tree species were 18.88-27.08 kJ·mol-1 and 13.25-27.54 kJ·mol-1, respectively, and the pre-exponential factors were 3.13-26.28 min-1 and 1.30-22.55 min-1. The holocellulose activation energy and pre-exponential factor of the pyrolysis stage for P. koraiensis, F. mandshurica, Q. mongolica, and B. platyphylla were greater than that of the lignin pyrolysis stage, while the opposite was true for P. sylvestris var. mongolica and J. mandshurica. The release amounts of CO and CO2 at the pyrolysis stage of the holocellulose was 535.16-880.11 mg·m-3 and 7004.97-10302.05 mg·m-3, and that at the pyrolysis stage of lignin was 240.31-1104.67 mg·m-3 and 20425.60-33946.68 mg·m-3, respectively. The release of CO and CO2 at the pyrolysis stage of healdellulose was less, but mass loss was greater than that at the pyrolysis stage of lignin. In the four-dimensional combustibility ranking of the six tree species leaves, B. platyphylla was the best ignitable, P. koraiensis was the most combustible, and P. sylvestris var. mongolica was the most sustainable and consumable. The ignitability was significantly positively correlated with pyrolysis kinetics parameters of the holocellulose, while the sustainability was negatively correlated with that of lignin.

Choice of operative method for pancreaticojejunostomy and a multivariable study of pancreatic leakage in pancreaticoduodenectomy.

BACKGROUND: As one of the major abdominal operations, pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD) involves many organs. The operation is complex, and the scope of the operation is large, which can cause significant trauma in patients. The operation has a high rate of complications. Pancreatic leakage is the main complication after PD. When pancreatic leakage occurs after PD, it can often lead to abdominal bleeding and infection, threatening the lives of patients. One study found that pancreatic leakage was affected by many factors including the choice of pancreaticojejunostomy method which can be well controlled. AIM: To investigate the choice of operative methods for pancreaticojejunostomy and to conduct a multivariate study of pancreatic leakage in PD. METHODS: A total of 420 patients undergoing PD in our hospital from January 2014 to March 2019 were enrolled and divided into group A (n = 198) and group B (n = 222) according to the pancreatointestinal anastomosis method adopted during the operation. Duct-to-mucosa pancreatojejunostomy was performed in group A and bundled pancreaticojejunostomy was performed in group B. The operation time, intraoperative blood loss, and pancreatic leakage of the two groups were assessed. The occurrence of pancreatic leakage after the operation in different patients was analyzed. RESULTS: The differences in operative time and intraoperative bleeding between groups A and B were not significant (P > 0.05). In group A, the time of pancreatojejunostomy was 26.03 ± 4.40 min and pancreatic duct diameter was 3.90 ± 1.10 mm. These measurements were significantly higher than those in group B (P < 0.05). The differences in the occurrence of pancreatic leakage, abdominal infection, abdominal hemorrhage and gastric retention between group A and group B were not significant (P > 0.05). The rates of pancreatic leakage in patients with preoperative albumin < 30 g/L, preoperative jaundice time ≥ 8 wk, and pancreatic duct diameter < 3 mm, were 23.33%, 33.96%, and 19.01%, respectively. These were significantly higher than those in patients with preoperative albumin ≥ 30 g/L, preoperative jaundice time < 8 wk, and pancreatic duct diameter ≥ 3 cm (P < 0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative albumin < 30 g/L, preoperative jaundice time ≥ 8 wk, and pancreatic duct diameter < 3 mm were risk factors for pancreatic leakage after PD (odds ratio = 2.038, 2.416 and 2.670, P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The pancreatointestinal anastomosis method during PD has no significant effect on the occurrence of pancreatic leakage. The main risk factors for pancreatic leakage include preoperative albumin, preoperative jaundice time, and pancreatic duct diameter.

Evaluation of Antibacterial Effects of Matrix-Induced Silver Ions against Antibiotic-Resistant ESKAPE Pathogens.

Recently, drug-resistant bacterial infections, especially ESKAPE pathogens (Enterococcus faecium, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Enterobacter spp.), have become a critical health issue worldwide, highlighting the emerging need for novel antibacterial agents. In this study, silver nanoparticles were extracted from silver-containing mesoporous bioactive glass (MBG-Ag) using four different matrixes, including water, phosphate buffer saline (PBS), tryptic soy broth (TSB), and taurine (Tau). The inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer (ICP-MS) results demonstrated that the silver concentration of Tau-Ag was the highest among the four matrixes. The Tau-Ag was also observed to have 87.35% silver ions in its X-ray photoelectron spectrometer (XPS) spectra. The micrograph of transmission electron microscope (TEM) displayed a uniform distribution of silver nanoparticles, which was confined in a smaller size compared to that in TSB-Ag. Moreover, the peak shifts observed in the Fourier-transform infrared spectrometer (FTIR) spectrum implied that the -SO32- and -NH groups in taurine may interact with silver. A low cytotoxicity was noted for Tau-Ag, with approximately 70% of cells surviving at 0.63 mg/mL. Compared to the other three matrix-induced silver agents, Tau-Ag represented a better antibacterial effect against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, with a minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) value of 0.63 mg/mL and a postponed growth of 0.31 mg/mL observed. Further antibacterial examinations illustrated the presence of remarkable antibacterial activities against vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus feacium, carbapenem-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae, carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii, and carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Given our observations and multiple bioactive functions of taurine (prevent patients from inflammation and oxidative-stress injuries), we anticipate that taurine matrix-induced silver ions would be a biomedical material with a high potential for combatting drug-resistant ESKAPE pathogens.

Expression of caspase-3 and hypoxia inducible factor 1α in hepatocellular carcinoma complicated by hemorrhage and necrosis.

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a malignant tumor that occurs in the liver. Its onset is latent, and it shows high heterogeneity and can readily experience intrahepatic metastasis or systemic metastasis, which seriously affects patients' quality of life. Numerous studies have shown that hypoxia inducible factor1α (HIF-1α) plays a significant role in the occurrence and development of tumors, as it promotes the formation of intratumoral vessels and plays a key role in their metastasis and invasion. Some studies have reported that caspase-3, which is induced by various factors, is involved in the apoptosis of tumor cells. AIM: To investigate the expression of caspase-3 and HIF-1α and their relationship to the prognosis of patients with primary HCC complicated by pathological changes of hemorrhage and necrosis. METHODS: A total of 88 patients with HCC complicated by pathological changes of hemorrhage and necrosis who were treated at our hospital from January 2017 to December 2019 were selected. The expression of caspase-3 and HIF-1α in HCC and paracancerous tissues from these patients was assessed. RESULTS: The positive expression rate of caspase-3 in HCC tissues was 27.27%, which was significantly lower than that in the paracancerous tissues (P < 0.05), while the positive expression rate of HIF-1α was 72.73%, which was significantly higher than that in the paracancerous tissues (P < 0.05). The positive expression rates for caspase-3 in tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage III and lymph node metastasis tissues were 2.78% and 2.50%, respectively, which were significantly lower than those in TNM stage I-II and non-lymph node metastasis tissues (P < 0.05). The positive expression rates of HIF-1α in TNM stage III, lymph node metastasis, and portal vein tumor thrombus tissues were 86.11%, 87.50%, and 88.00%, respectively, and these values were significantly higher than those in TNM stage I-II, non-lymph node metastasis, and portal vein tumor thrombus tissues (P < 0.05). The expression of caspase-3 and HIF-1α in HCC tissues were negatively correlated (r s = - 0.426, P < 0.05). The median overall survival time of HCC patients was 18.90 mo (95% CI: 17.20-19.91). The results of the Cox proportional risk regression model analysis showed that TNM stage, portal vein tumor thrombus, lymph node metastasis, caspase-3 expression, and HIF-1α expression were the factors influencing patient prognosis (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: The expression of caspase-3 decreases and HIF-1α increases in HCC tissues complicated by pathological changes of hemorrhage and necrosis, and these are related to clinicopathological features and prognosis.