Electron transport chain capacity expands yellow fever vaccine immunogenicity.

Vaccination has successfully controlled several infectious diseases although better vaccines remain desirable. Host response to vaccination studies have identified correlates of vaccine immunogenicity that could be useful to guide development and selection of future vaccines. However, it remains unclear whether these findings represent mere statistical correlations or reflect functional associations with vaccine immunogenicity. Functional associations, rather than statistical correlates, would offer mechanistic insights into vaccine-induced adaptive immunity. Through a human experimental study to test the immunomodulatory properties of metformin, an anti-diabetic drug, we chanced upon a functional determinant of neutralizing antibodies. Although vaccine viremia is a known correlate of antibody response, we found that in healthy volunteers with no detectable or low yellow fever 17D viremia, metformin-treated volunteers elicited higher neutralizing antibody titers than placebo-treated volunteers. Transcriptional and metabolomic analyses collectively showed that a brief course of metformin, started 3 days prior to YF17D vaccination and stopped at 3 days after vaccination, expanded oxidative phosphorylation and protein translation capacities. These increased capacities directly correlated with YF17D neutralizing antibody titers, with reduced reactive oxygen species response compared to placebo-treated volunteers. Our findings thus demonstrate a functional association between cellular respiration and vaccine-induced humoral immunity and suggest potential approaches to enhancing vaccine immunogenicity.

Estimation and reduction of bias in self-controlled case series with non-rare event dependent outcomes and heterogeneous populations.

The self-controlled case series (SCCS) is a commonly adopted study design in the assessment of vaccine and drug safety. Recurrent event data collected from SCCS studies are typically analyzed using the conditional Poisson model which assumes event times are independent within-cases. This assumption is violated in the presence of event dependence, where the occurrence of an event influences the probability and timing of subsequent events. When event dependence is suspected in an SCCS study, the standard recommendation is to include only the first event from each case in the analysis. However, first event analysis can still yield biased estimates of the exposure relative incidence if the outcome event is not rare. We first demonstrate that the bias in first event analysis can be even higher than previously assumed when subpopulations with different baseline incidence rates are present and describe an improved method for estimating this bias. Subsequently, we propose a novel partitioned analysis method and demonstrate how it can reduce this bias. We provide a recommendation to guide the number of partitions to use with the partitioned analysis, illustrate this recommendation with an example SCCS study of the association between beta-blockers and acute myocardial infarction, and compare the partitioned analysis against other SCCS analysis methods by simulation.

Estimation of trajectory of protective efficacy in infectious disease prevention trials using recurrent event times.

In studies of infectious disease prevention, the level of protective efficacy of medicinal products such as vaccines and prophylactic drugs tends to vary over time. Many products require administration of multiple doses at scheduled times, as opposed to one-off or continual intervention. Accurate information on the trajectory of the level of protective efficacy over time facilitates informed clinical recommendations and implementation strategies, for example, with respect to the timing of administration of the doses. Based on concepts from pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling, we propose a non-linear function for modeling the trajectory after each dose. The cumulative effect of multiple doses of the products is captured by an additive series of the function. The model has the advantages of parsimony and interpretability, while remaining flexible in capturing features of the trajectories. We incorporate this series into the Andersen-Gill model for analysis of recurrent event time data and compare it with alternative parametric and non-parametric functions. We use data on clinical malaria disease episodes from a trial of four doses of an anti-malarial drug combination for chemoprevention to illustrate, and evaluate the performance of the methods using simulation. The proposed method out-performed the alternatives in the analysis of real data in terms of Akaike and Bayesian Information Criterion. It also accurately captured the features of the protective efficacy trajectory such as the area under curve in simulations. The proposed method has strong potential to enhance the evaluation of disease prevention measures and improve their implementation strategies.

PRECIOUS demonstrated satisfactory measurement properties for assessing the quality of care for children with serious illnesses.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the measurement properties of PaRental Experience with care for Children with serIOUS illnesses (PRECIOUS), a parent-reported measure of Quality of Care for seriously ill children across care settings and illness trajectories. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Parents self-administered baseline and 2-week follow-up surveys online. Exploratory Factor Analysis was used to determine PRECIOUS's factor structure and select items. Internal consistency was evaluated with Cronbach's α, test-retest reliability with intraclass correlation coefficients, and convergent validity with Spearman's correlations between PRECIOUS scales and subscales of Measure of Processes of Care and Quality of Children's Palliative Care Instrument. RESULTS: Of 152 parents [108 (71%) mothers, 44 (29%) fathers] who completed the baseline survey, 123 (81%) completed follow-up. Exploratory Factor Analysis grouped PRECIOUS into five scales: collaborative and goal-concordant care (12 items), caregiver support and respectful care (15 items), access to financial and medical resources (five items), reducing caregiving stressors (nine items), and hospitalization-specific processes (four items). Root Mean Square Error of Approximation was 0.040 and Comparative Fit Index was 0.980. Cronbach's α ranged from 0.85 to 0.96. Intraclass correlation coefficients ranged from 0.72 to 0.86. Significant correlations with Measure of Processes of Care and Quality of Children's Palliative Care Instrument confirmed convergent validity. The original 56-item tool was reduced to 45 items. CONCLUSION: PRECIOUS demonstrates satisfactory measurement properties for assessing Quality of Care for seriously ill children.

ENABLE-SG (Educate, Nurture, Advise, Before Life Ends for Singapore) as a proactive palliative care model: protocol for a hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation randomized wait-list controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Specialist palliative care is often provided late in the patient's disease trajectory in response to uncontrolled symptoms. Shifting from this reactionary illness-stress paradigm to a proactive health-wellness approach, the ENABLE (Educate, Nurture, Advise, Before Life Ends) telehealth model aims to enhance the coping, stress and symptom management, self-care, and advance care planning skills of patients with advanced cancers and their caregivers. The ENABLE model has been culturally adapted to Singapore (ENABLE-SG) and pilot-tested. A hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation design will be used to evaluate the effectiveness of ENABLE-SG while collecting real-world implementation data. METHODS: This single-centre, assessor-blind, wait-list (immediately vs. 6 months) randomized controlled trial will recruit 300 adult patients within 60 days of an advanced cancer diagnosis and their family caregivers from the National Cancer Centre of Singapore. ENABLE-SG comprises structured psychoeducational sessions with a telehealth coach, covering essential topics of early palliative care. Participants will be assessed at baseline and every 3 months until patient's death, 12 months (caregivers), or end of study (patients). The primary outcome is patient quality of life 6 months after baseline. Secondary patient-reported outcomes include mood, coping, palliative care concerns, and health status. Secondary caregiver-reported outcomes include caregiver quality of life, mood, coping, and care satisfaction. Mixed-effects regression modelling for repeated measurements will be used. To assess the effectiveness of ENABLE-SG versus usual care, patient and caregiver outcomes at 6 months will be compared. To compare earlier versus delayed ENABLE-SG, patient and caregiver outcomes at 12 months will be compared. Within the hybrid type 1 effectiveness-implementation design, implementation outcomes will be evaluated in both the early and delayed groups. Acceptability, adoption, appropriateness, and feasibility will be assessed using a feedback survey and semi-structured interviews with a purposive sample of patients, caregivers, and healthcare providers. Transcribed interviews will be analysed thematically. Other implementation outcomes of penetration, fidelity, and cost will be assessed using records of study-related processes and summarized using descriptive statistics. A cost-effectiveness analysis will also be conducted. DISCUSSION: This study will assess both effectiveness and implementation of ENABLE-SG. Insights into implementation processes can facilitate model expansion and upscaling. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered prospectively on ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT06044441. Registered on 21/09/2023.

Cluster randomized trial designs for modeling time-varying intervention effects.

Stepped-wedge cluster randomized trials (SW-CRTs) are typically analyzed assuming a constant intervention effect. In practice, the intervention effect may vary as a function of exposure time, leading to biased results. The estimation of time-on-intervention (TOI) effects specifies separate discrete intervention effects for each elapsed period of exposure time since the intervention was first introduced. It has been demonstrated to produce results with minimum bias and nominal coverage probabilities in the analysis of SW-CRTs. Due to the design's staggered crossover, TOI effect variances are heteroskedastic in a SW-CRT. Accordingly, we hypothesize that alternative CRT designs will be more efficient at modeling certain TOI effects. We derive and compare the variance estimators of TOI effects between a SW-CRT, parallel CRT (P-CRT), parallel CRT with baseline (PB-CRT), and novel parallel CRT with baseline and an all-exposed period (PBAE-CRT). We also prove that the time-averaged TOI effect variance and point estimators are identical to that of the constant intervention effect in both P-CRTs and PB-CRTs. We then use data collected from a hospital disinvestment study to simulate and compare the differences in TOI effect estimates between the different CRT designs. Our results reveal that the SW-CRT has the most efficient estimator for the early TOI effect, whereas the PB-CRT typically has the most efficient estimator for the long-term and time-averaged TOI effects. Overall, the PB-CRT with TOI effects can be a more appropriate choice of CRT design for modeling intervention effects that vary by exposure time.

Can an Integrated Palliative and Oncology Co-rounding Model Reduce Aggressive Care at the End of Life? Secondary Analysis of an Open-label Stepped-wedge Cluster-randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Clinical trial evidence on the effect of palliative care models in reducing aggressive end-of-life care is inconclusive. We previously reported on an integrated inpatient palliative care and medical oncology co-rounding model that significantly reduced hospital bed-days and postulate additional effect on reducing care aggressiveness. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effect of a co-rounding model vs usual care in reducing receipt of aggressive treatment at end-of-life. METHODS: Secondary analysis of an open-label stepped-wedge cluster-randomized trial comparing two integrated palliative care models within the inpatient oncology setting. The co-rounding model involved pooling specialist palliative care and oncology into one team with daily review of admission issues, while usual care constituted discretionary specialist palliative care referrals by the oncology team. We compared odds of receiving aggressive care at end-of-life: acute healthcare utilization in last 30 days of life, death in hospital, and cancer treatment in last 14 days of life between patients in two trial arms. RESULTS: 2145 patients were included in the analysis, and 1803 patients died by 4th April 2021. Median overall survival was 4.90 (4.07 - 5.72) months in co-rounding and 3.75 (3.22 - 4.21) months in usual care, with no difference in survival (P = .12). We found no significant differences between both models with respect to receipt of aggressive care at end-of-life. (Odds Ratio .67 - 1.27; all P > .05). CONCLUSION: The co-rounding model within an inpatient setting did not reduce aggressiveness of care at end-of-life. This could be due in part to the overall focus on resolving episodic admission issues.

Protocol update and baseline characteristics for the TRIal to slow the Progression of Diabetes (TRIPOD) randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes (T2D), a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease and other adverse health conditions, is on the rise in Singapore. TRIPOD is a randomized controlled trial aimed to determine whether complementing usual care with an evidence-based diabetes management package (DMP) -comprising access to an evidence-based app, health coaching, pedometer, glucometer and weighing scale, with or without a financial rewards scheme (M-POWER rewards), can improve mean HbA1c levels at months 6 and 12. METHODS: The protocol was published in Trials, accessible via https://trialsjournal.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13063-019-3749-x 1. This manuscript updates the protocol with changes to the study design due to challenges with recruitment and presents baseline characteristics. Key updates include changing the arm allocation ratio from 1:1:1 (Arm 1-Usual Care: Arm 2-DMP: Arm 3-DMP+M-POWER rewards) to 10:1:10, the sample size from 339 to 269, the intervention period from two to one year, and the primary hypothesis to focus solely on differences between Usual Care and DMP+M-POWER rewards. Recruitment for the study began on 19 October 2019 and ended on 4 June 2022. RESULTS: The average age of participants was 55.0 (SD9.7) years old and 64.2% were male. The majority of participants (76.8%) were Chinese, 4.9% Malay and 18.3% Indian and of other ethnicities. 67.0% had a monthly household income of SGD$4000 or more. The mean baseline HbA1c was 8.10% (SD 0.95) and the mean body mass index was 26.8 kg/m2 (SD 5.3). DISCUSSION: The final participant completed month 12 follow-up data collection on 8 June 2023. All pre-planned analyses will be conducted and final results reported. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03800680 . Registered on 11 January 2019.

Statistical analysis plan for the LAKANA trial: a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, parallel group, three-arm clinical trial testing the effects of mass drug administration of azithromycin on mortality and other outcomes among 1-11-month-old infants in Mali.

BACKGROUND: The Large-scale Assessment of the Key health-promoting Activities of two New mass drug administration regimens with Azithromycin (LAKANA) trial in Mali aims to evaluate the efficacy and safety of azithromycin (AZI) mass drug administration (MDA) to 1-11-month-old infants as well as the impact of the intervention on antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and mechanisms of action of azithromycin. To improve the transparency and quality of this clinical trial, we prepared this statistical analysis plan (SAP). METHODS/DESIGN: LAKANA is a cluster randomized trial that aims to address the mortality and health impacts of biannual and quarterly AZI MDA. AZI is given to 1-11-month-old infants in a high-mortality setting where a seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) program is in place. The participating villages are randomly assigned to placebo (control), two-dose AZI (biannual azithromycin-MDA), and four-dose AZI (quarterly azithromycin-MDA) in a 3:4:2 ratio. The primary outcome of the study is mortality among the intention-to-treat population of 1-11-month-old infants. We will evaluate relative risk reduction between the study arms using a mixed-effects Poisson model with random intercepts for villages, using log link function with person-years as an offset variable. We will model outcomes related to secondary objectives of the study using generalized linear models with considerations on clustering. CONCLUSION: The SAP written prior to data collection completion will help avoid reporting bias and data-driven analysis for the primary and secondary aims of the trial. If there are deviations from the analysis methods described here, they will be described and justified in the publications of the trial results. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ID NCT04424511 . Registered on 11 June 2020.

Novel 3-arm wait-list controlled trial designs together with mixed-effects analysis improve precision of treatment effect estimators.

Clinical trialists have long been searching for approaches to increase statistical power without increasing sample size. Conventional wait-list controlled (WLC) trials are limited to two trial arms and two or three repeated measurements per person. These features limit statistical power. Furthermore, their analysis is usually based on analysis of covariance or mixed effects modelling, with a focus on estimating treatment effect at one time-period after initiation of therapy. We propose two 3-arm WLC trial designs together with a mixed-effects analysis framework. The designs require three or four repeated measurements per person. The analytic framework defines up to three treatment effect estimands, representing the effects at one to three time-periods after initiation of therapy. The precision (inverse of variance) of the treatment effect estimators in the new and conventional trial designs are analytically derived and evaluated in simulations. The results are interpreted in the context of a cognitive training trial in older people. The proposed designs and analysis methods increase the precision level of treatment effect estimators as compared to conventional designs and analyses. Given a target level of statistical power, the proposed methods require a smaller number of participants per trial than the conventional methods, without necessarily increasing the number of measurements per trial. Furthermore, the proposed analytic framework sheds light on the treatment effects at different times after initiation of therapy, which is not usually considered in conventional WLC trial analysis. In situations that a WLC trial is appropriate, the 3-arm designs are useful alternatives to existing 2-arm designs.

Associations of predominant night-eating with plasma glycemic status and continuous glucose monitoring measures among pregnant women.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: To examine whether predominant night-eating, defined as more than 50% of total daily energy intake consumed between 1900 and 0659 h, is associated with glycemic outcomes in pregnancy. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study of 277 healthy pregnant women with complete 4-day dietary intake records at 18-24 weeks gestation, recruited from KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore. Primary outcomes were fasting, 1-h, and 2-h plasma glucose after a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test at 24-28 weeks gestation. Secondary outcomes were gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM), fasting insulin, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR), ß-cell function (HOMA2-%B), and continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) measures. Glucose variables in continuous form were loge-transformed before analyses. RESULTS: Predominant night-eating (11.6%) was associated with higher fasting glucose (geometric mean ratio (95% confidence interval) 1.05 (1.01, 1.08)) and 1-h glucose (1.11 (1.01, 1.21)), but not with 2-h glucose or GDM risk. Predominant night-eating women had lower fasting insulin (0.77 (0.63, 0.95)), lower HOMA2-IR (0.78 (0.64, 0.97)), and lower HOMA2-%B (0.77 (0.67, 0.89)) than their predominant day-eating counterparts. For CGM measures, predominant night-eating was associated with higher mean glucose (1.07 (1.00, 1.15)), higher glucose management indicator (1.05 (1.00, 1.10)), and higher overall glucose levels throughout 24 h (1.10 (1.02, 1.19)). All these associations were adjusted for socio-demographic, lifestyle factors, and diet composition. CONCLUSION: Predominant night-eating was mainly associated with less desirable glycemic outcomes during pregnancy. Future studies should explore dietary interventions aimed at reducing consumption of relatively more calories at night than day during pregnancy.

The relationship between hope, medical expenditure and survival among advanced cancer patients.

Introduction: Among those with advanced illness, higher levels of hope may offer physiological benefits. Yet, greater levels of hope may also encourage aggressive treatments. Therefore, higher levels of hope may lead to greater healthcare utilization, higher expenditure, and longer survival. We test these hypotheses among patients with advanced cancer. Methods: A secondary data analysis from a cross-sectional survey of 195 advanced cancer patients with high mortality risk linked to subsequent healthcare utilization (outpatient, day surgeries, non-emergency admissions), health expenditures, and death records. The survey collected data on hope, measured generally by the Herth Hope Index (HHI) and more narrowly by two questions on illness-related hope. Generalized linear regression and Cox models were used to test our hypotheses. Results: 142 (78%) survey participants died during the period of analysis, with close to half (46%) doing so within a year of the survey. Contrary to expectation, HHI scores did not have a significant association with healthcare utilization, expenditure or survival. Yet, illness-related hope, defined as those who expected to live at least 2 years, as opposed to the likely prognosis of 1 year or less as determined by the primary treating oncologist, had 6.6 more planned hospital encounters (95% CI 0.90 to 12.30) in the 12-months following the survey and 41% lower mortality risk (hazard ratio: 0.59, 95% CI 0.36 to 0.99) compared to those who were less optimistic. Secondary analysis among decedents showed that patients who believed that the primary intent of their treatment is curative, had higher total expenditure (S$30,712; 95% CI S$3,143 to S$58,282) in the last 12 months of life than those who did not have this belief. Conclusion: We find no evidence of a relationship between a general measure of hope and healthcare utilization, expenditure, or survival among advanced cancer patients. However, greater illness-related hope is positively associated with these outcomes.

Measurement Properties of the 15-Item Singapore Caregiver Quality of Life Scale (SCQOLS-15) in Family Caregivers of Patients with Heart Diseases.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the measurement properties of the 15-item Singapore Caregiver Quality of Life Scale (SCQOLS-15) in family caregivers of patients with heart diseases. METHODS: The SCQOLS-15 survey was self-administered by family caregivers of patients with chronic heart diseases, at baseline and 1 week later. The criterion validity of SCQOLS-15 and its domain scores was assessed by calculating the Spearman correlation coefficient (ρ) with the Brief Assessment Scale for Caregivers (BASC), Caregiver Reaction Assessment (CRA), and their sub-scores. Known-group validity was assessed using the New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class. Test-retest reliability was evaluated using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC). RESULTS: Of the 327 caregivers included, 65% were adult children and 28% were spouses. The distribution of NYHA classes of the patients was I: 27%, II: 40%, III: 24%, and IV: 9%. There was a positive correlation between the SCQOLS-15 and BASC total scores (ρ = 0.7). SCQOLS-15 domain scores were also correlated with BASC and CRA sub-scores as per a priori hypotheses, with absolute values of ρ ranging from 0.4 to 0.6. The mean values of SCQOLS-15 total and all domain scores were lower among caregivers of patients with NYHA class III/IV compared to those of class I/II patients (each P < 0.05). Among 146 caregivers who completed the follow-up and self-rated a stable quality-of-life, ICCs for test-retest reliability of SCQOLS-15 total and all domain scores were ≥ 0.8. CONCLUSION: The SCQOLS-15 is a valid and reliable instrument for measuring the quality of life in caregivers of heart disease patients.

Distribution and association of interpregnancy weight change with subsequent pregnancy outcomes in Asian women.

The extent of interpregnancy weight change and its association with subsequent pregnancy outcomes among Asians remain unclear. We examined changes in maternal body mass index (BMI) between the first two deliveries and outcomes in the second delivery. Medical records of women with their first two consecutive deliveries between 2015 and 2020 at KK Women's and Children's Hospital, Singapore were retrieved. Gestational-age-adjusted BMI was determined by standardising to 12 weeks gestation and interpregnancy BMI change was calculated as the difference between both pregnancies. Pregnancy outcomes were analysed using modified Poisson regression models. Of 6264 included women with a median interpregnancy interval of 1.44 years, 40.7% had a stable BMI change within ± 1 kg/m2, 10.3% lost > 1 kg/m2, 34.3% gained 1-3 kg/m2 and 14.8% gained ≥ 3 kg/m2. Compared to women with stable BMI change, those with > 1 kg/m2 loss had higher risk of low birthweight (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 1.36; 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.80), while those with 1-3 kg/m2 gain had higher risks of large-for-gestational-age birth (1.16; 1.03-1.31), gestational diabetes (1.25; 1.06-1.49) and emergency Caesarean delivery (1.16; 1.03-1.31); these risks were higher in those with ≥ 3 kg/m2 gain. Our study strengthens the case for interpregnancy weight management to improve subsequent pregnancy outcomes.

The Impact of Antenatal Azithromycin and Monthly Sulfadoxine-Pyrimethamine on Maternal Malaria during Pregnancy and Fetal Growth: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Maternal malaria and infections during pregnancy are risk factors for fetal growth restriction. We assessed the impact of preventive treatment in pregnancy on maternal malaria and fetal growth. Between 2003 and 2006, we enrolled 1,320 pregnant Malawian women, 14-26 gestation weeks, in a randomized trial and treated them with two doses of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP, control) at enrollment and between 28-34 gestation weeks; with monthly SP from enrollment until 37 gestation weeks; or with monthly SP and azithromycin twice, at enrollment and between 28 and 34 gestation weeks (AZI-SP). Participants were seen at 4-week intervals until 36 completed gestation weeks and weekly thereafter. At each visit, we collected dried blood spots for real-time polymerase chain reaction diagnosing of malaria parasitemia and, in a random subgroup of 341 women, we measured fetal biparietal diameter and femur length with ultrasound. For the monthly SP versus the control group, the odds ratios (OR) (95% CI) of malaria parasitemia during the second, third, and both trimesters combined were 0.79 (0.46-1.37), 0.58 (0.37-0.92), and 0.64 (0.42-0.98), respectively. The corresponding ORs for the AZI-SP versus control group were 0.47 (0.26-0.84), 0.51 (0.32-0.81), and 0.50 (0.32-0.76), respectively. Differences between the AZI-SP and the monthly SP groups were not statistically significant. The interventions did not affect fetal biparietal diameter and femur length growth velocity. The results suggest that preventive maternal treatment with monthly SP reduced malaria parasitemia during pregnancy in Malawi and that the addition of azithromycin did not provide much additional antimalarial effect.

Modifiable Risk Factor Score and Fecundability in a Preconception Cohort in Singapore.

Importance: Although multiple modifiable risk factors have been identified for reduced fecundability (defined as lower probability of conception within a menstrual cycle), no scoring system has been established to systematically evaluate fecundability among females who are attempting to conceive. Objective: To examine the association of a risk score based on 6 modifiable factors with fecundability, and to estimate the percentage reduction in incidence of nonconception if all study participants achieved a minimal risk score level. Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based cohort study obtained data from the S-PRESTO (Singapore Preconception Study of Long-Term Maternal and Child Outcomes) prospective cohort study. Females of reproductive age who were trying to conceive were enrolled from February 2015 to October 2017 and followed for 1 year, ending in November 2018. Data were analyzed from March to May 2022. Exposures: A reduced fecundability risk score was derived by giving participants 1 point for each of the following factors: unhealthy body mass index, unhealthy diet, smoking, alcohol intake, folic acid supplement nonuser, and older maternal age. Total scores ranged from 0 to 6 and were classified into 5 levels: level 1 (score of 0 or 1), level 2 (score of 2), level 3 (score of 3), level 4 (score of 4), and level 5 (score of 5 or 6). Main Outcomes and Measures: Fecundability, measured by time to conception in cycles, was analyzed using discrete-time proportional hazards models with confounder adjustment. Results: A total of 937 females (mean [SD] age, 30.8 [3.8] years) were included, among whom 401 (42.8%) spontaneously conceived within 1 year of attempting conception; the median (IQR) number of cycles before conception was 4 (2-7). Compared with participants with a level 1 risk score, those with level 2, 3, 4, and 5 risk scores had reductions in fecundability of 31% (adjusted fecundability ratio [FR], 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.88), 41% (FR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.45-0.78), 54% (FR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.31-0.69) and 77% (FR, 0.23; 95% CI, 0.07-0.73), respectively. Assessment of the population attributable fraction showed that all participants achieving a minimal (level 1) risk level would be associated with a reduction of 34% (95% CI, 30%-39%) in nonconception within a year. Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this study revealed the co-occurrence of multiple modifiable risk factors for lowered fecundability and a substantially higher conception rate among participants with no or minimal risk factors. The risk assessment scoring system proposed is a simple and potentially useful public health tool for mitigating risks and guiding those who are trying to conceive.

Testing the effects of mass drug administration of azithromycin on mortality and other outcomes among 1-11-month-old infants in Mali (LAKANA): study protocol for a cluster-randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blinded, parallel-group, three-arm clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin (AZI) has been shown to reduce under-5 mortality in some but not all sub-Saharan African settings. A large-scale cluster-randomized trial conducted in Malawi, Niger, and Tanzania suggested that the effect differs by country, may be stronger in infants, and may be concentrated within the first 3 months after treatment. Another study found no effect when azithromycin was given concomitantly with seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC). Given the observed heterogeneity and possible effect modification by other co-interventions, further trials are needed to determine the efficacy in additional settings and to determine the most effective treatment regimen. METHODS: LAKANA stands for Large-scale Assessment of the Key health-promoting Activities of two New mass drug administration regimens with Azithromycin. The LAKANA trial is designed to address the mortality and health impacts of 4 or 2 annual rounds of azithromycin MDA delivered to 1-11-month-old (29-364 days) infants, in a high-mortality and malaria holoendemic Malian setting where there is a national SMC program. Participating villages (clusters) are randomly allocated in a ratio of 3:2:4 to three groups: placebo (control):4-dose AZI:2-dose AZI. The primary outcome measured is mortality. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) will be monitored closely before, during, and after the intervention and both among those receiving and those not receiving MDA with the study drugs. Other outcomes, from a subset of villages, comprise efficacy outcomes related to morbidity, growth and nutritional status, outcomes related to the mechanism of azithromycin activity through measures of malaria parasitemia and inflammation, safety outcomes (AMR, adverse and serious adverse events), and outcomes related to the implementation of the intervention documenting feasibility, acceptability, and economic aspects. The enrolment commenced in October 2020 and is planned to be completed by the end of 2022. The expected date of study completion is December 2024. DISCUSSION: If LAKANA provides evidence in support of a positive mortality benefit resulting from azithromycin MDA, it will significantly contribute to the options for successfully promoting child survival in Mali, and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT04424511. Registered on 11 June 2020.

Modelling non-linear patterns of time-varying intervention effects on recurrent events in infectious disease prevention studies.

Protective efficacy of vaccines and pharmaceutical products for prevention of infectious diseases usually vary over time. Information on the trajectory of the level of protection is valuable. We consider a parsimonious, non-linear and non-monotonic function for modelling time-varying intervention effects and compare it with several alternatives. The cumulative effects of multiple doses of intervention over time can be captured by an additive series of the function. We apply it to the Andersen-Gill model for analysis of recurrent time-to-event data. We re-analyze data from a trial of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria to illustrate and evaluate the method by simulation.

Palliative care pain control: inpatient consultation versus corounding models compared.

BACKGROUND: Compared with the current inpatient consultation model, a novel corounding model of care whereby palliative specialists round with oncology teams, increases healthcare collaboration and may improve quality of care for inpatients. Whether this translates to better pain control for patients is unexplored. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether the corounding model provides better pain control compared with the consultation model for cancer inpatients. METHODS: Cancer patients with moderate or severe pain severity during the admission were included in this observational study. Pain severity was determined using electronic records. Improvement to mild or no pain by day 3 of identification of moderate or severe pain was defined as good pain control and proportion of admissions achieving this was compared between models. RESULTS: A total of 142 and 128 admissions admitted under the consult and corounding model, respectively, had moderate or severe pain. The proportion of patients that achieved good pain control was 77.3% (99/128) and 71.8% (102/142) in the corounding and consult model, respectively. The difference in proportion of admissions achieving good pain control was significantly higher in the corounding model after adjusting for differences in baseline characteristics (unadjusted OR, 1.34; 95% CI, 0.77 to 2.33; adjusted OR, 2.25; 95% CI, 1.19 to 4.26). DISCUSSION: The odds of achieving good pain control was significantly better in the corounding model. However, the mechanism behind this is unexplored. This study can serve as precedence for future studies evaluating the corounding model of care.

Validity and Reliability of the Integrated Palliative Care Outcome Scale in Asian Heart Failure Patients.

Background: The Integrated Palliative Care Outcome Scale (IPOS) was developed in the United Kingdom for health assessment in advanced illness. Objectives: To evaluate the validity and reliability of a culturally adapted IPOS (both patient and staff versions) for heart failure (HF). Design/Setting: We recruited HF patients and staff from a tertiary hospital in Singapore. We collected patient IPOS, New York Heart Association (NYHA) status, Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS) and Minnesota Living with Heart Failure (MLHF) scores at baseline, and patient IPOS at follow-up. Each baseline patient IPOS was matched with a staff IPOS. Measurements: Pearson correlation coefficient (r) between ESAS, MLHF, and patient IPOS was calculated to assess construct validity. The two-sample T-test assessed difference in patient and staff IPOS scores across NYHA status and care settings for known-group validity. Internal consistency of patient and staff IPOS was assessed using Cronbach's alpha (α). Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to assess test-retest reliability of patient IPOS and inter-rater reliability between patient and staff IPOS. Results: Ninety-one patients and 12 staff participated. There was strong convergent validity of total patient IPOS with MLHF (r = 0.78) and ESAS (r = 0.81). There were statistically significant differences in total IPOS across care settings (patient-IPOS: 8.05, staff-IPOS 13.61) and NYHA (patient-IPOS: 7.52, staff-IPOS 12.71).There was high internal consistency of total patient (α = 0.83) and staff IPOS (α = 0.88) and high test-retest reliability of patient IPOS (ICC 0.81). Inter-rater reliability (ICC) ranged between 0.82 and 0.91. Conclusion: The IPOS was valid and reliable for HF patients in Singapore.