Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe. METHODS: Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics. RESULTS: The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Anthrax outbreak investigation in Tengwe, Mashonaland West Province, Zimbabwe, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Anthrax continues to be a disease of public health concern in Zimbabwe. Between December 2021 and February 2022, Tengwe reported 36 cases of human anthrax. Gastrointestinal anthrax has the potential to cause serious outbreaks leading to loss of human life. We investigated the outbreak, identified the risk factors using one health approach to inform outbreak control. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted descriptive analysis of the outbreak and a 1:2 unmatched case control study to identify risk factors for anthrax. A case was any Tengwe resident who developed an ulcer and/or abdominal symptoms and epidemiologically linked to a confirmed environmental exposure. Validated, structured interviewer-administered questionnaires were used to collect data from the cases and neighbourhood controls. Soil and dried meat samples were collected for laboratory investigations. District preparedness and response was assessed using a checklist. Data was analysed using Epi Info version 7.2.5. The odds of exposure were calculated for each risk factor examined. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the independent factors associated with contracting anthrax. RESULTS: Through active case finding we identified 36 cases, 31 were interviewed. Twenty-one (67.7%) were males. The median age was 33 years (Inter quartile range: 22-54). Nineteen (61.2%) cases presented with abdominal symptoms with zero deaths reported. The independent risk factor for contracting anthrax was eating under-cooked meat (aOR = 12.2, 95% CI: 1.41-105.74, p = 0.023). All samples collected tested positive for anthrax. No livestock vaccinations or zoonotic meetings were being conducted prior to the outbreak. Notification of the outbreak was done 11 days after index case presentation however one health response was instituted within 24 hours. CONCLUSION: The anthrax was confirmed in Tengwe. Consumption of under-cooked meat was associated with gastrointestinal anthrax. The timely one health response resulted in excellent outcomes. Using one health approach in managing zoonotic threats is encouraged.

Spatial clustering of fourteen tick species across districts of Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Ticks transmit several diseases that result in high morbidity and mortality in livestock. Tick-borne diseases are an economic burden that negatively affect livestock production, cost countries billions of dollars through vaccine procurement and other disease management efforts. Thus, understanding the spatial distribution of tick hotspots is critical for identifying potential areas of high tick-borne disease transmission and setting up priority areas for targeted tick disease management. In this study, optimised hotspot analysis was applied to detect hotspots and coldspots of 14 common tick species in Zimbabwe. Data on the spatial distribution of tick species were obtained from the Epidemiology Unit of the Division of Veterinary Field Services of Zimbabwe. RESULTS: A total of 55,133 ticks were collected with Rhipicephalus decoloratus being the most common species (28.7%), followed by Amblyomma hebraeum (20.6%), and Rhipicephalus sanguineus sensu lato (0.06%) being the least common species. Results also showed that tick hotspots are species-specific with particular tick species occupying defined localities in the country. For instance, Amblyomma variegatum, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, Rhipicephalus decoloratus, Rhipicephalus compostus, Rhipicephalus microplus, Rhipicephalus pravus, and Rhipicephalus simus were concentrated in the north and north eastern districts of the country. In contrast, Amblyomma hebraeum, Hyalomma rufipes, Hyalomma trancatum and Rhipicephalus evertsi evertsi were prevalent in the southern districts of Zimbabwe. CONCLUSION: The occurrence of broadly similar hotspots of several tick species in different districts suggests presence of spatial overlaps in the niche of the tick species. As ticks are vectors of several tick-borne diseases, there is high likelihood of multiple disease transmission in the same geographic region. This study is the first in Zimbabwe to demonstrate unique spatial patterns in the distribution of several tick species across the country. The results of this study provide an important opportunity for the development of spatially-targeted tick-borne disease management strategies.

Seroprevalence of Canine Ehrlichiosis and Microscopic Screening for Canine Babesiosis in Dogs in Harare, Zimbabwe, 2016-2017.

A cross-sectional study was done to determine ehrlichiosis seroprevalence and babesiosis prevalence in dogs that were presented to selected veterinary clinics in Harare. Sera from randomly selected dogs were tested for antibodies to Ehrlichia spp. using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay while microscopy of peripheral blood smears was used to confirm babesiosis. Overall, 75.2% (88/117, 95% CI: 66.2-82.5) of sera samples tested were positive to Ehrlichia spp. antibodies while the prevalence of canine babesiosis was 47.9% (56/117, 95% CI: 38.6-57.3). Age, breed, and sex were found not to be associated with the two disease conditions (p > 0.05). Most of the dogs with babesiosis (82.1%, 46/56) were also positive to Ehrlichia spp. antibodies. Hypoalbuminaemia (53.8%, 63/117), anaemia (53.0%, 62/117) and thrombocytopaenia (40.2%, 47/117) were the most common laboratory findings. Thrombocytopaenia and hypoalbuminaemia was more pronounced in dogs with babesiosis only while anaemia was more marked in dogs with babesiosis and positive to Ehrlichia spp. antibodies.

Long-term changes in the spatial distribution of lumpy skin disease hotspots in Zimbabwe.

Outbreaks of lumpy skin disease (LSD) are reported almost every year in Zimbabwe but not much is known regarding whether the pattern of the disease is changing in response to major socio-economic programmes such as the land reform launched in 2000. In this paper, geo-referenced data of LSD cases was used to detect and map significant LSD hotspots over a 20-year period (1995-2014). The hotspots were then overlaid on top of a land tenure map to explore whether hotspots have spread or persist in some land tenure types. The main results are that LSD outbreaks are on the rise and the disease is spreading throughout the country with areas formerly large-scale commercial farms now experiencing more outbreaks. These results suggest that regular vaccination should be now recommended in most districts in the country.

A study on the prevalence of dog erythrocyte antigen 1.1 and detection of canine Babesia by polymerase chain reaction from apparently healthy dogs in a selected rural community in Zimbabwe.

A study was carried out to determine the prevalence of blood group antigen dog erythrocyte antigen (DEA) 1.1 in mixed breed dogs in rural Chinamhora, Zimbabwe. DEA 1.1 is clinically the most important canine blood group as it is the most antigenic blood type; hence, DEA 1.1 antibodies are capable of causing acute haemolytic, potentially life-threatening transfusion reactions. In this study, blood samples were collected from 100 dogs in Chinamhora, and blood typing was carried out using standardised DEA 1.1 typing strips with monoclonal anti-DEA 1.1 antibodies (Alvedia® LAB DEA 1.1 test kits). Polymerase chain reaction for detecting Babesia spp. antigen was carried out on 58 of the samples. Of the 100 dogs, 78% were DEA 1.1 positive and 22% were DEA 1.1 negative. A significantly (p = 0.02) higher proportion of females (90.5%) were DEA 1.1 positive than males (69.0%). The probability of sensitisation of recipient dogs following first-time transfusion of untyped or unmatched blood was 17.2%, and an approximately 3% (2.95%) probability of an acute haemolytic reaction following a second incompatible transfusion was found. Babesia spp. antigen was found in 6.9% of the samples. No significant relationship (χ2 = 0.56, p = 0.45) was found between DEA 1.1 positivity and Babesia spp. antigen presence. Despite a low probability of haemolysis after a second incompatibility transfusion, the risk remains present and should not be ignored. Hence, where possible, blood typing for DEA 1.1 is recommended. A survey of DEA 3, 4, 5 and 7 in various breeds is also recommended.

Temporal and spatial distribution of cattle anthrax outbreaks in Zimbabwe between 1967 and 2006.

This retrospective study aimed to assess the spatial and temporal distribution of anthrax and to identify risk areas in Zimbabwe. The data were extracted from the monthly and annual reports of the Division of Livestock Production and Veterinary Services for the period 1967 to 2006. The data were analyzed in relation to temporal and spatial factors. The hot-dry season was found to be significantly (X (2)=847.8, P<0.001) associated with the occurrence of anthrax in cattle, and the disease was found to be approximately three times more likely to occur during this season compared to other seasons. Anthrax outbreaks demonstrated a gradual temporal increase from an annual mean of three outbreaks for the 5-year period (1967-1971) to 42 for the 5-year period (2002-2006). Similarly, the data demonstrated a spatial increase in the number of districts affected by anthrax between 1967 and 2006, with 12 districts affected for the 10-year period (1967-1976) that expanded to 42 districts for the 10-year period (1997-2006). The majority of outbreaks (83.7%) were recorded in rural areas, and 11 districts were found to be at a higher risk than others. There is need to develop differential vaccination strategy, other control strategies and preventive recommendations to reduce anthrax in high-risk districts. In the medium- to low-risk districts, maintenance of effective surveillance systems and improvement of awareness is very important to detect and contain outbreaks early.