Alternative observational designs to estimate the effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine in Lusaka, Zambia.

We conducted a matched case-control (MCC), test-negative case-control (TNCC) and case-cohort study in 2016 in Lusaka, Zambia, following a mass vaccination campaign. Confirmed cholera cases served as cases in all three study designs. In the TNCC, control-subjects were cases with negative cholera culture and polymerase chain reaction results. Matched controls by age and sex were selected among neighbours of the confirmed cases in the MCC study. For the case-cohort study, we recruited a cohort of randomly selected individuals living in areas considered at-risk of cholera. We recruited 211 suspected cases (66 confirmed cholera cases and 145 non-cholera diarrhoea cases), 1055 matched controls and a cohort of 921. Adjusted vaccine effectiveness of one dose of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) was 88.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 42.7-97.8) in the MCC study, 80.2% (95% CI: 16.9-95.3) in the TNCC design and 89.4% (95% CI: 64.6-96.9) in the case-cohort study. Three study designs confirmed the short-term effectiveness of single dose OCV. Major healthcare-seeking behaviour bias did not appear to affect our estimates. Most of the protection among vaccinated individuals could be attributed to the direct effect of the vaccine.

Significant decline in lymphatic filariasis associated with nationwide scale-up of insecticide-treated nets in Zambia.

Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a mosquito-borne disease, broadly endemic in Zambia, and is targeted for elimination by mass drug administration (MDA) of albendazole and diethylcarbamazine citrate (DEC) to at-risk populations. Anopheline mosquitoes are primary vectors of LF in Africa, and it is possible that the significant scale-up of malaria vector control over the past decade may have also impacted LF transmission, and contributed to a decrease in prevalence in Zambia. We therefore aimed to examine the putative association between decreasing LF prevalence and increasing coverage of insecticide-treated mosquito nets (ITNs) for malaria vector control, by comparing LF mapping data collected between 2003-2005 and 2009-2011 to LF sentinel site prevalence data collected between 2012 and 2014, before any anti-LF MDA was started. The coverage of ITNs for malaria was quantified and compared for each site in relation to the dynamics of LF. We found a significant decrease in LF prevalence from the years 2003-2005 (11.5% CI95 6.6; 16.4) to 2012-2014 (0.6% CI95 0.03; 1.1); at the same time, there was a significant scale-up of ITNs across the country from 0.2% (CI95 0.0; 0.3) to 76.1% (CI95 71.4; 80.7) respectively. The creation and comparison of two linear models demonstrated that the geographical and temporal variation in ITN coverage was a better predictor of LF prevalence than year alone. Whilst a causal relationship between LF prevalence and ITN coverage cannot be proved, we propose that the scale-up of ITNs has helped to control Anopheles mosquito populations, which have in turn impacted on LF transmission significantly before the scale-up of MDA. This putative synergy with vector control has helped to put Zambia on track to meet national and global goals of LF elimination by 2020.