Real-world effectiveness of influenza vaccine against medical-attended influenza infection during 2023/24 season in Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, China: A test-negative, case-control study.

In the post-COVID-19 pandemic era, influenza virus infections continuously lead to a global disease burden. Evaluating vaccine effectiveness against influenza infection is crucial to inform vaccine design and vaccination strategy. In this study, we recruited 1120 patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) who attended fever clinics of 4 sentinel hospitals in the Ili Kazakh Autonomous Prefecture, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China, from January 1 to April 7, 2024. Using a test-negative design, we estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) of 54.7% (95% CrI: 23.7, 73.1) against medical-attended influenza infection, with 62.3% (95% CrI: 29.3, 79.8) against influenza A, and 51.2% (95% CrI: 28.7, 83.0) against influenza B. Despite the moderate VE estimated in this study, influenza vaccination remains the most important approach to prevent influenza at the community level.

Biomarkers in the prediction of complications in pregnancy after assisted reproductive technology.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the temporal changes in mean arterial pressure (MAP), uterine artery pulsatility index (UtA-PI), placental growth factor (PlGF), and soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) across gestation between assisted reproductive technology (ART) pregnancies complicated with great obstetrical syndromes (GOS) or gestational diabetes (GDM) ± large-for-gestational-age (LGA) fetus, and uncomplicated ART pregnancies. METHODS: This was a prospective longitudinal study of 143 women with singleton pregnancies who conceived through ART at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Prince of Wales Hospital, the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR between December 2017 and January 2020. The participants were followed up at 6-6+3, 11-13+6, 20-24+6, 30-34+6, and 35-37+6 weeks for the measurement of MAP, UtA-PI, PlGF, and sFlt-1. A linear mixed-effects analysis was performed to compare the biomarkers in the GOS, GDM ± LGA, and uncomplicated groups across gestation. RESULTS: Thirty-three (23.1%) and fifty-five (31.5%) women were diagnosed with GOS and GDM ± LGA, respectively. The GOS group had higher estimated marginal mean log10 MAP mulitples of the median (MoM) across gestation, compared with the uncomplicated group (0.00771 vs -0.02022; P < 0.001), when adjusting for clinical visits and days of embryo transfer. The absolute mean log10 MAP MoM in the GOS group was found to be significantly higher than that of the uncomplicated group at all clinical visits from 6 weeks onwards. Furthermore, the estimated marginal mean log10 PlGF MoM was significantly lower in the GOS group across gestation, compared with the uncomplicated group (-0.04226 vs 0.05566; P = 0.010). The significant difference in log10 PlGF MoM was observed from 11-13+6 to 30-34+6 week of gestation (P < 0.05). However, no significant differences in the estimated marginal means of log10 UtA-PI MoM and log10 sFlt-1 MoM between GOS and uncomplicated groups were observed. GDM ± LGA group had a lower estimated marginal mean log10 PlGF MoM throughout pregnancy compared with the uncomplicated group (-0.01536 vs 0.05572; P = 0.032). In the individual visit analysis, the significant difference was observed at the 20-24+6 and 35-37+6 weeks visits (P < 0.05). There were no significant differences in estimated marginal mean log10 MoM of MAP, UtA-PI, and sFlt-1 between GDM ± LGA and uncomplicated groups during pregnancy. CONCLUSION: Our study has revealed that among pregnancies conceived through ART, GOS is associated with higher MAP and lower PlGF from early gestation until late third trimester, while GDM ± LGA is associated with lower PlGF during the second half of pregnancy. The same degree of differences in MAP and PlGF persists from early until late gestation in the GOS group and these findings highlight the importance of early screening during the first trimester to identify women who are at risk for developing GOS following ART procedures. Lastly, the potential of PlGF in predicting the development of GDM from the second trimester of pregnancy requires further investigation.

Implementation of First-Trimester Screening and Prevention of Preeclampsia: A Stepped Wedge Cluster-Randomized Trial in Asia.

BACKGROUND: This trial aimed to assess the efficacy, acceptability, and safety of a first-trimester screen-and-prevent strategy for preterm preeclampsia in Asia. METHODS: Between August 1, 2019, and February 28, 2022, this multicenter stepped wedge cluster randomized trial included maternity/diagnostic units from 10 regions in Asia. The trial started with a period where all recruiting centers provided routine antenatal care without study-related intervention. At regular 6-week intervals, one cluster was randomized to transit from nonintervention phase to intervention phase. In the intervention phase, women underwent first-trimester screening for preterm preeclampsia using a Bayes theorem-based triple-test. High-risk women, with adjusted risk for preterm preeclampsia ≥1 in 100, received low-dose aspirin from <16 weeks until 36 weeks. RESULTS: Overall, 88.04% (42 897 of 48 725) of women agreed to undergo first-trimester screening for preterm preeclampsia. Among those identified as high-risk in the intervention phase, 82.39% (2919 of 3543) received aspirin prophylaxis. There was no significant difference in the incidence of preterm preeclampsia between the intervention and non-intervention phases (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.59 [95% CI, 0.91-2.77]). However, among high-risk women in the intervention phase, aspirin prophylaxis was significantly associated with a 41% reduction in the incidence of preterm preeclampsia (aOR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.37-0.92]). In addition, it correlated with 54%, 55%, and 64% reduction in the incidence of preeclampsia with delivery at <34 weeks (aOR, 0.46 [95% CI, 0.23-0.93]), spontaneous preterm birth <34 weeks (aOR, 0.45 [95% CI, 0.22-0.92]), and perinatal death (aOR, 0.34 [95% CI, 0.12-0.91]), respectively. There was no significant between-group difference in the incidence of aspirin-related severe adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: The implementation of the screen-and-prevent strategy for preterm preeclampsia is not associated with a significant reduction in the incidence of preterm preeclampsia. However, low-dose aspirin effectively reduces the incidence of preterm preeclampsia by 41% among high-risk women. The screen-and-prevent strategy for preterm preeclampsia is highly accepted by a diverse group of women from various ethnic backgrounds beyond the original population where the strategy was developed. These findings underpin the importance of the widespread implementation of the screen-and-prevent strategy for preterm preeclampsia on a global scale. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT03941886.

Transmission risks of Omicron BA.5 following inactivated COVID-19 vaccines among children and adolescents in China.

BACKGROUND: As SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants circulating globally since 2022, assessing the transmission characteristics, and the protection of vaccines against emerging Omicron variants among children and adolescents are needed for guiding the control and vaccination policies. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study for SARS-CoV-2 infections and close contacts aged <18 years from an outbreak seeded by Omicron BA.5 variants. The secondary attack rate (SAR) was calculated and the protective effects of two doses of inactivated vaccine (mainly Sinopharm /BBIBP-CorV) within a year versus one dose or two doses above a year after vaccination against the transmission and infection of Omicron BA.5 were estimated. RESULTS: A total of 3442 all-age close contacts of 122 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infections aged 0-17 years were included. The SAR was higher in the household setting and for individuals who received a one-dose inactivated vaccine or those who received a two-dose for more than one year, with estimates of 28.5% (95% credible interval [CrI]: 21.1, 37.7) and 55.3% (95% CrI: 24.4, 84.8), respectively. The second dose of inactivated vaccine conferred substantial protection against all infection and transmission of Omicron BA.5 variants within a year. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the rollout of the second dose of inactivated vaccine for children and adolescents during the Omciron BA.5 predominant epidemic phase. Given the continuous emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants, monitoring the transmission risk and corresponding vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants among children and adolescents is important to inform control strategy.

Children and adolescents have reported suffering less severe outcomes from the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant. However, the risk of transmission and vaccine effectiveness among this population group is not well studied. Here, we used contact tracing data that was collected during an Omicron BA.5 outbreak from Urumqi, China, before the exit of "zero-COVID" measures, to evaluate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection among those age under 18 years, and the effectiveness of inactivated vaccine regimens. Our findings indicate there is a high rate of transmission among children and adolescents in a household setting and receiving two doses of inactivated COVID-19 vaccination within a year was more effective than a single dose or two doses given more than a year apart. These findings highlight the importance of tracking transmission and vaccine effectiveness of novel SARS-CoV-2 variants in younger populations to inform control strategies.

Comparison of diclofenac with tramadol, tizanidine or placebo in the treatment of acute low back pain and sciatica: multi-center randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Low back pain (LBP) is a leading cause of disability worldwide and has posed numerous health and socioeconomic challenges. This study compared whether nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) in combination with tramadol, tizanidine or placebo would be the best treatment regime to improve the Roland Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ) scores at 1 week. METHODS: This was a multi-center, double-blind, randomized, and placebo-controlled trial including adult patients with acute LBP and sciatica in three emergency departments in Hong Kong. Patients were randomized to the receive tramadol 50 mg, tizanidine 2 mg, or placebo every 6 hours for 2 weeks in a 1:1:1 ratio. The RMDQ and other secondary outcomes were measured at baseline, Day 2, 7, 14, 21, and 28. Data were analyzed on an intention to treat basis. Crude and adjusted mean differences in the changes of RMDQ and NRS scores from baseline to Day 7 between tizanidine/tramadol and placebo were determined with 95% confidence intervals. RESULTS: Two hundred and ninety-one patients were analyzed with the mean age of 47.4 years and 57.7% were male. The primary outcome of mean difference in RMDQs on Day 7 (compared with baseline) was non-significant for tizanidine compared with placebo (adjusted mean difference - 0.56, 95% CI -2.48 to 1.37) and tramadol compared with placebo (adjusted mean difference - 0.85, 95% CI -2.80 to 1.10). Only 23.7% were fully compliant to the treatment allocated. Complier Average Causal Effect analysis also showed no difference in the primary outcome for the tizanidine and tramadol versus placebo. CONCLUSION: Among patients with acute LBP and sciatica presenting to the ED, adding tramadol or tizanidine to diclofenac did not improve functional recovery.

Predictive evolutionary modelling for influenza virus by site-based dynamics of mutations.

Influenza virus continuously evolves to escape human adaptive immunity and generates seasonal epidemics. Therefore, influenza vaccine strains need to be updated annually for the upcoming flu season to ensure vaccine effectiveness. We develop a computational approach, beth-1, to forecast virus evolution and select representative virus for influenza vaccine. The method involves modelling site-wise mutation fitness. Informed by virus genome and population sero-positivity, we calibrate transition time of mutations and project the fitness landscape to future time, based on which beth-1 selects the optimal vaccine strain. In season-to-season prediction in historical data for the influenza A pH1N1 and H3N2 viruses, beth-1 demonstrates superior genetic matching compared to existing approaches. In prospective validations, the model shows superior or non-inferior genetic matching and neutralization against circulating virus in mice immunization experiments compared to the current vaccine. The method offers a promising and ready-to-use tool to facilitate vaccine strain selection for the influenza virus through capturing heterogeneous evolutionary dynamics over genome space-time and linking molecular variants to population immune response.

Health and wellbeing among the empty nest and non-empty nest elderly in China-Results from a national cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: The number of empty nest elderly in China has gradually increased in recent years. There is growing concern about the physical and mental health of this population as empty nest elderly are commonly at the risk of compromising health, home safety and quality of life. This study reported the health and well-being of empty nest elderly with regards to their health status, depression and satisfaction, lifestyle as compared to non-empty nest elderly in China. METHODS: Data was collected from the 2018 follow-up interviews of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey. We included 4,630 empty nest elderly and 6,188 non-empty nest elderly. Chi-square Test and Logistic Regression were used to compare the differences between these two groups. RESULTS: As compared to the non-empty nest elderly, there was higher proportion of empty nest elderly who suffered from dyslipidemia, diabetes, chronic lung diseases, heart attack (27.0% vs. 25.0%; 16.6% vs. 15.1%; 19.4% vs. 16.4%; 26.3% vs. 23.4%, P < 0.05). The empty nest elderly had higher proportion of participants who drank more than once a month (25.3% vs. 23.9%, P < 0.05), who felt satisfied with their marriage (71.6% vs. 66.2%, P < 0.001), who were satisfied with their children's relationship (85.2% vs. 83.2%, P < 0.001). However, these significances disappeared in the Logistic Regression analysis (P > 0.05). CONCLUSION: Our study showed that significant between-group difference was found between empty nest elderly and non-empty nest elderly in their health and wellbeing. However, disappearance of such difference in the multivariable analysis may indicate improved health and wellbeing among the empty nest elderly. Even though our study still suggested the importance of improving the health, lifestyles and family dynamics of the elderly and promoting the integration of health and social care for the elderly, especially among the empty nest elderly.

Lifestyle Changes Reduced Estimated White Matter Hyperintensities Based on Retinal Image Analysis.

This study evaluates if there is an association between lifestyle changes and the risk of small vessel disease (SVD) as measured by cerebral white matter hyperintensities (WMH) estimated by the automatic retinal image analysis (ARIA) method. We recruited 274 individuals into a community cohort study. Subjects were assessed at baseline and annually with the Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile II Questionnaire (HPLP-II) and underwent a simple physical assessment. Retinal images were taken using a non-mydriatic digital fundus camera to evaluate the level of WMH estimated by ARIA (ARIA-WMH) to measure the risk of small vessel disease. We calculated the changes from baseline to one year for the six domains of HPLP-II and analysed the relationship with the ARIA-WMH change. A total of 193 (70%) participants completed both the HPLP-II and ARIA-WMH assessments. The mean age was 59.1 ± 9.4 years, and 76.2% (147) were women. HPLP-II was moderate (Baseline, 138.96 ± 20.93; One-year, 141.97 ± 21.85). We observed a significant difference in ARIA-WMH change between diabetes and non-diabetes subjects (0.03 vs. -0.008, respectively, p = 0.03). A multivariate analysis model showed a significant interaction between the health responsibility (HR) domain and diabetes (p = 0.005). For non-diabetes subgroups, those with improvement in the HR domain had significantly decreased in ARIA-WMH than those without HR improvement (-0.04 vs. 0.02, respectively, p = 0.003). The physical activity domain was negatively related to the change in ARIA-WMH (p = 0.02). In conclusion, this study confirms that there is a significant association between lifestyle changes and ARIA-WMH. Furthermore, increasing health responsibility for non-diabetes subjects reduces the risk of having severe white matter hyperintensities.

The mechanism shaping the logistic growth of mutation proportion in epidemics at population scale.

Virus evolution is a common process of pathogen adaption to host population and environment. Frequently, a small but important fraction of virus mutations are reported to contribute to higher risks of host infection, which is one of the major determinants of infectious diseases outbreaks at population scale. The key mutations contributing to transmission advantage of a genetic variant often grow and reach fixation rapidly. Based on classic epidemiology theories of disease transmission, we proposed a mechanistic explanation of the process that between-host transmission advantage may shape the observed logistic curve of the mutation proportion in population. The logistic growth of mutation is further generalized by incorporating time-varying selective pressure to account for impacts of external factors on pathogen adaptiveness. The proposed model is implemented in real-world data of COVID-19 to capture the emerging trends and changing dynamics of the B.1.1.7 strains of SARS-CoV-2 in England. The model characterizes and establishes the underlying theoretical mechanism that shapes the logistic growth of mutation in population.

Excess deaths from Alzheimer's disease and Parkinson's disease during the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 pandemic has indirect impacts on patients with chronic medical conditions, which may increase mortality risks for various non-COVID-19 causes. This study updates excess death statistics for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and Parkinson's disease (PD) up to 2022 and evaluates their demographic and spatial disparities in the USA. METHODS: This is an ecological time-series analysis of AD and PD mortality in the USA from January 2018 to March 2022. Poisson log-linear regressions were utilised to fit the weekly death data. Excess deaths were calculated with the difference between the observed and expected deaths under a counterfactual scenario of pandemic absence. RESULTS: From March 2020 to March 2022, we observed 41,115 and 10,328 excess deaths for AD and PD, respectively. The largest percentage increases in excess AD and PD deaths were found in the initial pandemic wave. For people aged ≥85 years, excess mortalities of AD and PD (per million persons) were 3946.0 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2954.3, 4892.3) and 624.3 (95% CI: 369.4, 862.5), which were about 23 and 9 times higher than those aged 55-84 years, respectively. Females had a three-time higher excess mortality of AD than males (182.6 vs. 67.7 per million persons). The non-Hispanic Black people experienced larger increases in AD or PD deaths (excess percentage: 31.8% for AD and 34.6% for PD) than the non-Hispanic White population (17.1% for AD and 14.7% for PD). CONCLUSION: Under the continuing threats of COVID-19, efforts should be made to optimise health care capacity for patients with AD and PD.

A Prism Vote method for individualized risk prediction of traits in genotype data of Multi-population.

Multi-population cohorts offer unprecedented opportunities for profiling disease risk in large samples, however, heterogeneous risk effects underlying complex traits across populations make integrative prediction challenging. In this study, we propose a novel Bayesian probability framework, the Prism Vote (PV), to construct risk predictions in heterogeneous genetic data. The PV views the trait of an individual as a composite risk from subpopulations, in which stratum-specific predictors can be formed in data of more homogeneous genetic structure. Since each individual is described by a composition of subpopulation memberships, the framework enables individualized risk characterization. Simulations demonstrated that the PV framework applied with alternative prediction methods significantly improved prediction accuracy in mixed and admixed populations. The advantage of PV enlarges as genetic heterogeneity and sample size increase. In two real genome-wide association data consists of multiple populations, we showed that the framework considerably enhanced prediction accuracy of the linear mixed model in five-group cross validations. The proposed method offers a new aspect to analyze individual's disease risk and improve accuracy for predicting complex traits in genotype data.

Impact of endoscopic ultrasound-guided gallbladder drainage on reducing costs of reintervention and unplanned readmission: a budget impact analysis.

Background and study aims Endoscopic ultrasound-guided gallbladder drainage (EUS-GBD) is the preferred treatment for patients with acute calculous cholecystitis who are unfit for surgery. The aim of this study was to perform a cost-effective analysis (CEA) comparing EUS-GBD with percutaneous gallbladder drainage (PT-GBD). Patients and methods CEA was performed on patients recruited for our prior randomized controlled trial. A budget impact model was developed to compare the base-case and scenario of EUS-GBD applications. The costs including peri-procedure and intra-procedure, reinterventions, expenses associated with treatment of adverse events (AEs), costs of hospital stay, subsequent clinic follow-up, and unplanned readmission were included. Results PT-GBD had a lower total procedure cost per patient (USD$4,375.00) than EUS-GBD (USD$9,397.44). For EUS-GBD, the cost of cautery-enhanced lumen-apposing stent accounted for the major part of the expense (USD$4,910.26). EUS-GBD resulted in a lower expected cost (USD$108.26 vs USD$1,601.54) for a re-procedure. The expected cost per patient in unplanned readmissions in the EUS-GBD group (USD$450.00) was lower than that in the PT-GBD group (USD$1,717.56). Based on the budget impact analysis, the net budget impact per year of introducing EUS-GBD to replace PT-GBD was higher (USD$16,424.10 vs USD$11,433.08). The net budget impact was most sensitive to the cost of stent and linear echoendoscope used in EUS-GBD. Conclusions The net budget impact per year was higher for introducing EUS-GBD. The cost of the stent accounted for the major cost difference between the two procedures. EUS-GBD saved on the cost in management of AEs, reinterventions, and unplanned readmissions but these did not offset the cost of the stent.

Suppression of influenza virus infection by rhinovirus interference - at the population, individual and cellular levels.

Background: Influenza virus (IV) and the rhinovirus (RV) are the two most common circulating respiratory viruses circulating. Natural viral interference has been suggested between them. The effect of such at the population level has been described in temperate region, while its effect at the individual and cellular levels warrants further validation. In this study, we described the respiratory virus epidemiology and the co-infection landscape in the hospitalized population and investigated the distinct molecular pathways involved in the inhibition of virus replication. Methods: Nasopharyngeal aspirates (NPAs) collected from patients during 2015 to 2019 were examined for the presence of respiratory viruses. The correlation of the monthly prevalence between all the tested respiratory viruses, the co-infection rate and the temporal interference of RV and IV were tested. The viral interference was validated in vitro by conducting sequential RV and IV infections in the well-differentiated primary human airway epithelial cells. The contributing molecular pathways were determined by transcriptome analysis. Findings: A total of 112,926 NPAs were evaluated, and the Enterovirus/RV was the most prevalent respiratory virus detected. The negative correlation between EV/RV and IVs prevalence was independent of age and meteorological factors. Compare with other viruses, EV/RV had a significantly lower incidence of co-infection with IVs. Prior exposure to RV inhibited the replication of IV species A, B and oseltamivir-resistance stain in vitro. RV uniquely downregulated genes related to processing of viral mRNA, ribosomal proteins, translation and influenza infection. Interpretation: Epidemiological surveillance and the sequential infection in vitro suggested viral interference between EV/RV and IV operates at the population, individual and cellular levels. Funding: This study was supported by the General Research Fund (Ref: 24107017 and 14103119 to RWYC) and the Chinese University Direct Grant for Research (Ref: 2019·073 to RWYC).

Enabling Factors, Barriers, and Perceptions of Pneumococcal Vaccination Strategy Implementation: A Qualitative Study.

Invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) is a leading cause of disability and mortality worldwide, particularly in the elderly population. With the implementation of the Government Vaccination Programme (GVP) and the Vaccination Subsidy Scheme (VSS), enabling factors and barriers in service provider scheme participation and vaccination uptake were examined in 32 interviews with doctors and 16 interviews with vaccine recipients. Interview data were analysed in NVivo 11.0 with reference to the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR) and the REAIM Framework to develop codes and themes. Barriers to pneumococcal vaccination uptake included concerns on vaccine efficacy and poor understanding of the disease and vaccine schemes, whilst service provider participation was hindered by ill-defined parameters for patient eligibility and time, location, and logistical constraints. Enabling factors to improve intervention implementation were involvement of the government and physicians to encourage participation, clarifying eligibility criteria, and improving individual knowledge of IPD and vaccination schemes. As participation rates in the GVP and VSS remains low in Hong Kong, efforts concentrating on health promotion strategies encouraging pneumococcal vaccination amongst the elderly population are recommended.

Characterizing superspreading potential of infectious disease: Decomposition of individual transmissibility.

In the context of infectious disease transmission, high heterogeneity in individual infectiousness indicates that a few index cases can generate large numbers of secondary cases, a phenomenon commonly known as superspreading. The potential of disease superspreading can be characterized by describing the distribution of secondary cases (of each seed case) as a negative binomial (NB) distribution with the dispersion parameter, k. Based on the feature of NB distribution, there must be a proportion of individuals with individual reproduction number of almost 0, which appears restricted and unrealistic. To overcome this limitation, we generalized the compound structure of a Poisson rate and included an additional parameter, and divided the reproduction number into independent and additive fixed and variable components. Then, the secondary cases followed a Delaporte distribution. We demonstrated that the Delaporte distribution was important for understanding the characteristics of disease transmission, which generated new insights distinct from the NB model. By using real-world dataset, the Delaporte distribution provides improvements in describing the distributions of COVID-19 and SARS cases compared to the NB distribution. The model selection yielded increasing statistical power with larger sample sizes as well as conservative type I error in detecting the improvement in fitting with the likelihood ratio (LR) test. Numerical simulation revealed that the control strategy-making process may benefit from monitoring the transmission characteristics under the Delaporte framework. Our findings highlighted that for the COVID-19 pandemic, population-wide interventions may control disease transmission on a general scale before recommending the high-risk-specific control strategies.

Rapid evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic infection with SARS-CoV-2 variants by analysis of genetic distance.

Timely evaluation of the protective effects of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is urgently needed to inform pandemic control planning. Based on 78 vaccine efficacy or effectiveness (VE) data from 49 studies and 1,984,241 SARS-CoV-2 sequences collected from 31 regions, we analyzed the relationship between genetic distance (GD) of circulating viruses against the vaccine strain and VE against symptomatic infection. We found that the GD of the receptor-binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is highly predictive of vaccine protection and accounted for 86.3% (P = 0.038) of the VE change in a vaccine platform-based mixed-effects model and 87.9% (P = 0.006) in a manufacturer-based model. We applied the VE-GD model to predict protection mediated by existing vaccines against new genetic variants and validated the results by published real-world and clinical trial data, finding high concordance of predicted VE with observed VE. We estimated the VE against the Delta variant to be 82.8% (95% prediction interval: 68.7-96.0) using the mRNA vaccine platform, closely matching the reported VE of 83.0% from an observational study. Among the four sublineages of Omicron, the predicted VE varied between 11.9% and 33.3%, with the highest VE predicted against BA.1 and the lowest against BA.2, using the mRNA vaccine platform. The VE-GD framework enables predictions of vaccine protection in real time and offers a rapid evaluation method against novel variants that may inform vaccine deployment and public health responses.

The non-pharmaceutical interventions may affect the advantage in transmission of mutated variants during epidemics: A conceptual model for COVID-19.

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, genetic mutations in SARS-CoV-2 emerge, and some of them are found more contagious than the previously identified strains, acting as the major mechanism for many large-scale epidemics. The transmission advantage of mutated variants is widely believed as an innate biological feature that is difficult to be altered by artificial factors. In this study, we explore how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) may affect transmission advantage. A two-strain compartmental epidemic model is proposed and simulated to investigate the biological mechanism of the relationships among different NPIs, the changes in transmissibility of each strain and transmission advantage. Although the NPIs are effective in flattening the epidemic curve, we demonstrate that NPIs probably lead to a decline in transmission advantage, which is likely to occur if the NPIs become intensive. Our findings uncover the mechanistic relationship between NPIs and transmission advantage dynamically, and highlight the important role of NPIs not only in controlling the intensity of epidemics but also in slowing or even containing the growth of the proportion of variants.

Quantifying the effect of government interventions and virus mutations on transmission advantage during COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has become a major public health threat. This study aims to evaluate the effect of virus mutation activities and policy interventions on COVID-19 transmissibility in Hong Kong. METHODS: In this study, we integrated the genetic activities of multiple proteins, and quantified the effect of government interventions and mutation activities against the time-varying effective reproduction number Rt. FINDINGS: We found a significantly positive relationship between Rt and mutation activities and a significantly negative relationship between Rt and government interventions. The results showed that the mutations that contributed most to the increase of Rt were from the spike, nucleocapsid and ORF1b genes. Policy of prohibition on group gathering was estimated to have the largest impact on mitigating virus transmissibility. The model explained 63.2% of the Rt variability with the R2. CONCLUSION: Our study provided a convenient framework to estimate the effect of genetic contribution and government interventions on pathogen transmissibility. We showed that the S, N and ORF1b protein had significant contribution to the increase of transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in Hong Kong, while restrictions of public gathering and suspension of face-to-face class are the most effective government interventions strategies.

The cost-effectiveness of starting 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and influenza vaccination at 50 vs. 65 years: A comparative modelling study.

OBJECTIVES: Pneumococcal infection is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) together with influenza vaccination or pneumococcal vaccination alone in adults starting from 50 years vs. 65 years in Hong Kong. METHODS: A hypothetical population of 100,000 older adults was included in a Markov model with age ranging from 50 to 85 years to calculate the cost and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained for vaccination strategies, including: (1) annual influenza vaccine and PPV23 at 50 and 65 years; (2) annual influenza vaccine and PPV23 at 65 years (similar with the current vaccination programme); (3) PPV23 at 50 and 65 years; (4) PPV23 at 65 years; and (5) no vaccination. We evaluated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and used Monte Carlo simulation for probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The cost-effectiveness threshold was extracted from previous literature. RESULTS: In comparison with no vaccination, all strategies were cost-effective with ICERs less than the threshold (US$24,302 per QALY gained). When compared with no vaccination, strategies 1-4 saved US$ 49.5, US$ 94.9, US$ 584.3, and US$ 1114.2 to gain one QALY respectively. In comparison with strategy 2, strategy 1 spent US$ 195.3 to gain one QALY, whilst strategies 3 and 4 showed less effectiveness with increased costs. CONCLUSIONS: All vaccination strategies were cost-effective, among which the strategy of PPV23 at 50/65 years with annual influenza vaccine was cost-effective even in comparison with current vaccination programme. These findings could help inform the design and implementation of vaccination strategies.