Dependence of the AUC of NTCP models on the observational dose-range highlights cautions in comparison of discriminative performance.

BACKGROUND: Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models are probabilistic models that describe the risk of radio-induced toxicity in tissues or organs. In the field of radiotherapy, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) is widely used to estimate the performance in risk prediction of NTCP models. METHODS: In this work, we derived an analytical expression of the AUC for the logistic NTCP model in the case of both symmetrical and asymmetrical dose (to the normal tissue) windows around D50. Using numerical simulations, we studied the behavior of the AUC in general clinical settings, enforcing non-logistic NTCP models (Lyman-Kutcher-Burman and LogEUD) and including risk factors beyond the dose. We validated our findings using real-world radiotherapy data sets of prostate cancer patients. RESULTS: Our analytical expression of the AUC made explicit the dependence on both the steepness of the logistic curve (ß) and the dose window width (w), showing that an increase of w pushes AUC towards higher values. Increasing values of the AUC with increasing values of w were consistently observed across simulated data sets with diverse clinical settings from published studies and real clinical data sets. CONCLUSION: Our results reveal that the AUC of NTCP models inherits intrinsic characteristics from the clinical setting of the data set on which the models are developed, and warn against the use of the AUC to compare the performance of models constructed upon data from trials in which substantially different dose ranges were administered or accounting for different risk factors beyond the dose.

Towards multimodal boosting of motivation for fall-preventive physical activity in seniors: An iterative development evaluation study.

Background: Many seniors need to increase their physical activity (PA) and participation in fall prevention exercise. Therefore, digital systems have been developed to support fall-preventive PA. Most of them lack video coaching and PA monitoring, two functionalities that may be relevant for increasing PA. Objective: To develop a prototype of a system to support seniors' fall-preventive PA, which includes also video coaching and PA monitoring, and to evaluate its feasibility and user experience. Methods: A system prototype was conceived by integrating applications for step-monitoring, behavioural change support, personal calendar, video-coaching and a cloud service for data management and co-ordination. Its feasibility and user experience were evaluated in three consecutive test periods combined with technical development. In total, 11 seniors tested the system at home for four weeks with video coaching from health care professionals. Results: Initially, the system's feasibility was non-satisfactory due to insufficient stability and usability. However, most problems could be addressed and amended. In the third (last) test period, both seniors and coaches experienced the system prototype to be fun, flexible and awareness-raising. Interestingly, the video coaching which made the system unique compared to similar systems was highly appreciated. Nonetheless, even the users in the last test period highlighted issues due to insufficient usability, stability and flexibility. Further improvements in these areas are needed. Conclusions: Video coaching in fall-preventive PA can be valuable for both seniors and health care professionals. High reliability, usability and flexibility of systems supporting seniors are essential.

Does the inclusion of societal costs change the economic evaluations recommendations? A systematic review for multiple sclerosis disease.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis imposes a heavy burden on the person who suffers from it and on the relatives, due to the caregiving load involved. The objective was to analyse whether the inclusion of social costs in economic evaluations of multiple sclerosis-related interventions changed results and/or conclusions. METHODS: A systematic review was launched using Medline and the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry of Tufts University (2000-2019). Included studies should: (1) be an original study published in a scientific journal, (2) be an economic evaluation of any multiple sclerosis-related intervention, (3) include productivity losses and/or informal care costs (social costs), (4) be written in English, (5) use quality-adjusted life years as outcome, and (6) separate the results according to the perspective applied. RESULTS: Twenty-nine articles were selected, resulting in 67 economic evaluation estimations. Social costs were included in 47% of the studies. Productivity losses were assessed in 90% of the estimations (the human capital approach was the most frequently used method), whereas informal care costs were included in nearly two-thirds of the estimations (applying the opportunity and the replacement-cost methods equally). The inclusion of social costs modified the figures for incremental costs in 15 estimations, leading to a change in the conclusions in 10 estimations, 6 of them changing from not recommended from the healthcare perspective to implemented from the societal perspective. The inclusion of social costs also altered the results from cost-effective to dominant in five additional estimations. CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of social costs affected the results/conclusions in multiple sclerosis-related interventions, helping to identify the most appropriate interventions for reducing its economic burden from a broader perspective.

Costs of irritable bowel syndrome in European countries with universal healthcare coverage: a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an overall estimate of the direct, indirect and total costs of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) for the adult population of the European countries with universal healthcare coverage. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched MedLine and Scopus databases (up to September 2018) to identify the European studies that evaluated the economic impact of IBS. Mean annual direct, indirect and total per-capita IBS costs were estimated using random-effect single-group meta-analyses of continuous data. All analyses were stratified by payer category (governments, insurance, societal), and the results were expressed as summary mean and 95% CI. RESULTS: A total of 24 studies were included in the meta-analyses. Only two studies evaluated IBS costs in Italy. The pooled summary of direct IBS per-capita cost, obtained from 23 European datasets (n=15,157), was €1837/year (95% CI: 1480-2195), with large differences across payers (from €1183 to €3358, in countries with publicly-funded and insurance-based health systems, respectively). The mean indirect cost, extracted from 13 datasets (n=3978), was €2314/year (95% CI: 1811-2817), again with wide differences across payers. Finally, the meta-analysis estimating the total annual cost, based upon 11 European datasets (n=2757), yielded a summary estimate of €2889/year (95% CI: 2318-3460) per patient, ranging from €1602 (insurance-based health systems) to €3909 (studies adopting a societal perspective). CONCLUSIONS: Considering a conservative estimate of 2,736,700 Italian adults affected by the syndrome, the minimum costs due to IBS in Italy - likely underestimated - range from 6 to 8 billion euro per year. Given the substantial economic burden for patients, healthcare systems and society, IBS should be included among the priorities of the public health agenda.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of Daclatasvir/Sofosbuvir for the treatment of the HCV patients failed after the first line with second generation of DAAs in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Daclatasvir (DCV) combinated with Sofosbuvir (SOF) has shown good efficacy and safety profile for HCV patients. The aim was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of DCV/SOF regimen versus HCV alternative treatments for patients who failed to achieve the SVR12 after a first DAA treatment from Italian perspective (PITER cohort). METHODS: A Markov model of HCV chronically infected patients was used to develop two scenarios: 1) DCV+ SOF versus Ledipasvir (LDV)+ SOF in Genotype (Gt)1 and Gt4; 2) DCV+ SOF versus no retreatment option in Gt1, Gt3, and Gt4. The percentage of patients who failed the first line with SOF/Simeprevir/Ribavirin (RBV) or SOF/RBV and were retreated or not according to evidences from PITER cohort, were used to populate the model. HCV resources consumption and SVR rates were quantified using PITER data. Transition probabilities and utility rates were derived from the literature. The outcomes were expressed in terms of Quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) was performed considering a cost-effectiveness threshold of € 30,000/QALY. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, DCV+ SOF represents a cost-effectiveness therapy with ICERs lower than the threshold. The PSA showed robust results, ICERs remain below the threshold in 94% and 99% simulations in Scenario 1 and 2, respectively.

Juno observations of spot structures and a split tail in Io-induced aurorae on Jupiter.

Jupiter's aurorae are produced in its upper atmosphere when incoming high-energy electrons precipitate along the planet's magnetic field lines. A northern and a southern main auroral oval are visible, surrounded by small emission features associated with the Galilean moons. We present infrared observations, obtained with the Juno spacecraft, showing that in the case of Io, this emission exhibits a swirling pattern that is similar in appearance to a von Kármán vortex street. Well downstream of the main auroral spots, the extended tail is split in two. Both of Ganymede's footprints also appear as a pair of emission features, which may provide a remote measure of Ganymede's magnetosphere. These features suggest that the magnetohydrodynamic interaction between Jupiter and its moon is more complex than previously anticipated.

Radar evidence of subglacial liquid water on Mars.

The presence of liquid water at the base of the martian polar caps has long been suspected but not observed. We surveyed the Planum Australe region using the MARSIS (Mars Advanced Radar for Subsurface and Ionosphere Sounding) instrument, a low-frequency radar on the Mars Express spacecraft. Radar profiles collected between May 2012 and December 2015 contain evidence of liquid water trapped below the ice of the South Polar Layered Deposits. Anomalously bright subsurface reflections are evident within a well-defined, 20-kilometer-wide zone centered at 193°E, 81°S, which is surrounded by much less reflective areas. Quantitative analysis of the radar signals shows that this bright feature has high relative dielectric permittivity (>15), matching that of water-bearing materials. We interpret this feature as a stable body of liquid water on Mars.

Economic evaluation of Zepatier for the management of HCV in the Italian scenario.

BACKGROUND: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major health issue worldwide. New generation of direct-active antiviral medications is an epoch-making turning point in the management of HCV infections. OBJECTIVE: Conducing a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing the combination of elbasvir/grazoprevir and sofosbuvir + pegylated interferon/ribavirin for the management of all HCV patients (even those in the initial stages of fibrosis). METHODS: A Markov model was built on the natural history of the disease to assess the efficacy of the alternatives. The outcomes are expressed in terms of quality adjusted life-years (QALYs) and result in terms of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio). RESULTS: Elbasvir/grazoprevir implies an expenditure of €21,104,253.74 with a gain of 19,287.90 QALYs and sofosbuvir + pegylated interferon/ribavirin implies an expenditure of €31,904,410.11 with a gain of 18,855.96 QALYs. Elbasvir/grazoprevir is thus a dominant strategy. CONCLUSION: Consideration should be given to the opportunity cost of not treating patients with a lower degree of fibrosis (F0-F2).

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Lesinurad/Allopurinol Versus Febuxostat for the Management of Gout/Hyperuricemia in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Until very recently the only therapeutic alternative for the management of patients affected by gout/hyperuricemia that did not respond to a first-line treatment based on allopurinol alone or who cannot tolerate allopurinol was febuxostat, a xanthine oxidase non-purine-selective inhibitor. Lately, however, a new therapeutic alternative has become available for the management of this pathology: lesinurad, a urate transporter inhibitor. OBJECTIVE: To objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of lesinurad/allopurinol in comparison with febuxostat as a second-line therapeutic strategy for the management of patients affected by gout and hyperuricemia that did not respond to a first-line therapy based on allopurinol alone. METHODS: A Markov model was built based on the natural history of the pathology; patients entered the model according to their level of serum uric acid concentration and flowed across it according to their response to the therapy. The analysis was carried out considering the perspective of the Italian National Health Service on a lifetime horizon and 6-month cycles. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted at a 3.5% yearly rate. The results of the model were expressed in terms of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Both a one-way and a multi-way Monte-Carlo analysis were carried out in order to check the robustness of the results achieved. RESULTS: The ICER derived from the comparison was equal to €77.53/QALY on the lifetime horizon, as there was a higher level of costs associated with the combination as compared with febuxostat (€10,658.27 vs. €10,645.87, for a differential of €12.40) and a higher level of QALYs achieved (7.77 vs. 7.61, for a differential of 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: The lesinurad/allopurinol combination is recommended for the treatment of patients affected by gout/hyperuricemia in the Italian Health System as it appears to be cost effective and thus sustainable for the Italian healthcare sector.

Clusters of cyclones encircling Jupiter's poles.

The familiar axisymmetric zones and belts that characterize Jupiter's weather system at lower latitudes give way to pervasive cyclonic activity at higher latitudes. Two-dimensional turbulence in combination with the Coriolis ß-effect (that is, the large meridionally varying Coriolis force on the giant planets of the Solar System) produces alternating zonal flows. The zonal flows weaken with rising latitude so that a transition between equatorial jets and polar turbulence on Jupiter can occur. Simulations with shallow-water models of giant planets support this transition by producing both alternating flows near the equator and circumpolar cyclones near the poles. Jovian polar regions are not visible from Earth owing to Jupiter's low axial tilt, and were poorly characterized by previous missions because the trajectories of these missions did not venture far from Jupiter's equatorial plane. Here we report that visible and infrared images obtained from above each pole by the Juno spacecraft during its first five orbits reveal persistent polygonal patterns of large cyclones. In the north, eight circumpolar cyclones are observed about a single polar cyclone; in the south, one polar cyclone is encircled by five circumpolar cyclones. Cyclonic circulation is established via time-lapse imagery obtained over intervals ranging from 20 minutes to 4 hours. Although migration of cyclones towards the pole might be expected as a consequence of the Coriolis ß-effect, by which cyclonic vortices naturally drift towards the rotational pole, the configuration of the cyclones is without precedent on other planets (including Saturn's polar hexagonal features). The manner in which the cyclones persist without merging and the process by which they evolve to their current configuration are unknown.

Economic Analysis and Budget Impact of Tenofovir and Entecavir in the First-Line Treatment of Hepatitis B Virus in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Chronic hepatitis B is a common, progressive disease, particularly when viral replication is detected. Oral antivirals can suppress viral replication and prevent or delay the development of cirrhosis and liver-related complications. The treatments of chronic hepatitis B cannot totally cure the disease but can prevent its progression to hepatocellular carcinoma, decreasing the levels of both morbidity and mortality. To date, there are several therapies indicated by the international guidelines as first-line treatments for the management of hepatitis B; two of the most effective are those based on either tenofovir or entecavir. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of tenofovir and entecavir in the treatment of naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B. The two treatments are compared with the "no treatment" and to one another. METHODS: The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a Markov model; patients entered one of the following health states: chronic hepatitis, cirrhosis (compensated or decompensated), hepatocellular carcinoma, liver transplantation or death. The analysis was carried out from the perspective of the Italian National Health Service by considering a life-time horizon with cycles lasting 1 year and with costs and QALYs (quality-adjusted life years) discounted at a rate of 3.5%. The results of the model were analysed in terms of incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: ICERs for tenofovir and entecavir emerging from the comparison versus "no treatment" were equal to €10,274.73 and €16,300.44 per QALY gained, respectively, on the life-time horizon. Tenofovir was dominant in the direct comparison with entecavir, indicating more QALYs and a lower consumption of resources. The Monte Carlo simulation demonstrated that in 97% (tenofovir) and in 85% (entecavir) of the scenarios performed, the cost per QALY fell below the threshold of €30,000/QALY. The budget impact analysis showed savings for tenofovir amounting to 33% compared to entecavir in the first year on treatment and to 31% in following years. CONCLUSIONS: Entecavir and tenofovir are recommended for the treatment of patients with chronic Hepatitis B in the Italian Health System. In particular, tenofovir appeared to be the more cost-effective drug for the management of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections. These results could help decision makers and clinicians to address their decision when choosing a first-line treatment for the management of people affected by chronic HBV.

Health Data Entanglement and artificial intelligence-based analysis: a brand new methodology to improve the effectiveness of healthcare services.

Healthcare expenses will be the most relevant policy issue for most governments in the EU and in the USA. This expenditure can be associated with two major key categories: demographic and economic drivers. Factors driving healthcare expenditure were rarely recognised, measured and comprehended. An improvement of health data generation and analysis is mandatory, and in order to tackle healthcare spending growth, it may be useful to design and implement an effective, advanced system to generate and analyse these data. A methodological approach relied upon the Health Data Entanglement (HDE) can be a suitable option. By definition, in the HDE a large amount of data sets having several sources are functionally interconnected and computed through learning machines that generate patterns of highly probable future health conditions of a population. Entanglement concept is borrowed from quantum physics and means that multiple particles (information) are linked together in a way such that the measurement of one particle's quantum state (individual health conditions and related economic requirements) determines the possible quantum states of other particles (population health forecasts to predict their impact). The value created by the HDE is based on the combined evaluation of clinical, economic and social effects generated by health interventions. To predict the future health conditions of a population, analyses of data are performed using self-learning AI, in which sequential decisions are based on Bayesian algorithmic probabilities. HDE and AI-based analysis can be adopted to improve the effectiveness of the health governance system in ways that also lead to better quality of care.

Modelling late stool frequency and rectal pain after radical radiotherapy in prostate cancer patients: Results from a large pooled population.

AIM: To investigate late gastrointestinal toxicity in a large pooled population of prostate cancer patients treated with radical radiotherapy. Normal tissue complication probability models were developed for late stool frequency and late rectal pain. METHODS AND MATERIALS: Population included 1336 patients, 3-year minimum follow-up, treated with 66-80Gy. Toxicity was scored with LENT-SOMA-scale. Two toxicity endpoints were considered: grade ⩾2 rectal pain and mean grade (average score during follow-up) in stool frequency >1. DVHs of anorectum were reduced to equivalent uniform dose (EUD). The best-value of the volume parameter n was determined through numerical optimization. Association between EUD/clinical factors and the endpoints was investigated by logistic analyses. Likelihood, Brier-score and calibration were used to evaluate models. External calibration was also carried out. RESULTS: 4% of patients (45/1122) reported mean stool frequency grade >1; grade ⩾2 rectal pain was present in the TROG 03.04 RADAR population only (21/677, 3.1%): for this endpoint, the analysis was limited to this population. Analysis of DVHs highlighted the importance of mid-range doses (30-50Gy) for both endpoints. EUDs calculated with n=1 (OR=1.04) and n=0.35 (OR=1.06) were the most suitable dosimetric descriptors for stool frequency and rectal pain respectively. The final models included EUD and cardiovascular diseases (OR=1.78) for stool frequency and EUD and presence of acute gastrointestinal toxicity (OR=4.2) for rectal pain. CONCLUSION: Best predictors of stool frequency and rectal pain are consistent with findings previously reported for late faecal incontinence, indicating an important role in optimization of mid-range dose region to minimize these symptoms highly impacting the quality-of-life of long surviving patients.

Prioritization of high-cost new drugs for HCV: making sustainability ethical.

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a major health problem worldwide. Chronic HCV infection may in the long run cause cirrhosis, hepatic decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma, with an ultimate disease burden of at least 350,000 deaths per year worldwide. The new generation of highly effective direct acting antivirals (DAA) to treat HCV infection brings major promises to infected patients in terms of exceedingly high rates of sustained virological response (SVR) but also of tolerability, allowing even the sickest patients to be treated. Even in the face of the excellent safety and efficacy and wide theoretical applicability of these regimens, their introduction is currently facing cost and access issues denying their use to many patients in need. Health systems in all countries are facing a huge problem of distributive justice, since while they should guarantee individual rights, among which the right to health in its broader sense, therefore not limited to healing, but extended to quality of life, they must also grant equal access to the healthcare resources and keep the distribution system sustainable. In the face of a disease with a relatively unpredictable course, where many but not of all chronically infected will eventually die of liver disease, selective allocation of this costly resource is debatable. In most countries the favorite solution has been a stratification of patients for prioritization of treatment, which means allowing Interferon-free DAA treatment only in patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis, while keeping on hold persons with lesser stages of liver disease. In this report, we will perform an ethical assessment addressing the issues linked to access to new therapies, prioritization and eligibility criteria, analyzing the meaning of the term "distributive justice" and the different approaches that can guide us (individualistic libertarianism, social utilitarianism and egalitarianism) on this specific matter. Even if over time the price of new DAA will be reduced through competition and eventual patent expiration, the phenomenon of high drug costs will go on in the next decades and we need adequate tools to face the problems of distributive justice that come with it.

The healthcare service in Italy: regional variability.

The Italian health system is highly decentralized, with most administrative and organizational powers governed by Regions and rather limited powers at national level. The state has full control over the definition of the core benefit package (LEA) but there is evidence that the actual provision of these services varies greatly across Regions.

How can the results of Health Technology Assessment (HTA) evaluations applied to vaccinations be communicated to decision-makers and stakeholders? The ISPOR Rome Chapter Project.

HTA is considered the most comprehensive and transparent method of supporting decision-makers in their choices in Public Health. HTA on vaccines is being performed by many experts. However, they often present their studies to colleagues, but not to decisionmakers, who should be the main target and current users. It is therefore crucial to improve the transfer of scientific data to decision- makers and all stakeholders. The aims of the present project are: 1) to set up a team of experts to collect economic evaluations and HTA studies on vaccines and assess their actual use in decision-making processes; 2) to constitute regional working groups in order to identify the critical aspects of the communication process and identify the most appropriate method of data transfer. Systematic reviews of economic evaluations and HTA on vaccines and their actual use in decision-making will be used to draw up the basic documents for discussion by the 3 regional working boards. The working groups will discuss the current scientific evidence and communication methods and will try to implement a model of technology assessment with well-defined and objective criteria, in order to better fit pharmaco-economic and HTA methods to the field of vaccinations. Improving the transfer of HTA results to stakeholders, particularly decision-makers, will enable decisions to be taken on the basis of scientific evidence, and appropriate, sustainable actions to be undertaken.

Factors associated with health-related quality of life: the role of social relationships among the elderly in an Italian region.

OBJECTIVES: This study examines the association between social relationships and health-related quality of life (HRQL) in the elderly in Lazio Region, Italy, a Mediterranean country where the shape and role of social links has dramatically changed. METHODS: Data were extracted from a national cross-sectional survey in Italy, representative of the non-institutionalised population aged 60 years and over resident in Lazio Region during 1999--2000. HRQL was measured with the Short Health Survey Questionnaire (SF-12). Data analysis was performed using multiple linear regression models using adjustment for the main confounders. RESULTS: Among the sample, 40.4% of the elderly were not married and 27.1 % were living alone. While being married and not living alone were associated with higher scores in the physical and mental quality-of-life components (P-value<0.001), more frequent visiting/seeing friends was likely to be associated with higher scores in both the physical and the mental health components (P-value<0.05). Multiple logistic regression analysis demonstrated that low physical health scores were associated with a low frequency of meeting with relatives and with living far from relatives. CONCLUSIONS: In a region covering 9.2% of the whole Italian population, only a small proportion of the elderly lack frequent social ties, yet low frequency of relationships with friends is associated with a decline in quality of life measured through mental and physical scores. Our findings will be useful for drawing up welfare strategies both at the national and at the Mediterranean level, in countries, like Italy, where the primacy of family support of the elderly has been decreasing in recent years.

[Drug, food, alcohol abuse and smoking in young workers. Methodology of a survey aimed at developing preventive interventions targeted to different type of workers: the Valentino Study]. / Gli abusi farmacologici, alimentari, da alcool, fumo e droga dei lavoratori giovani. Metodologia di svolgimento di un'indagine conoscitiva per lo sviluppo di modelli preventivi specifici per le diverse categorie professionali: il Progetto Valentino.

Current epidemiological data suggest that the number of preventive interventions aimed at controlling alcohol, drug, food abuse and smoking achieved only partial success, especially in young individuals. In order to improve preventive action efficacy, the literature suggests the adoption of contents and communication instruments specifically targeted to different groups of individuals. The Valentino Project is a comprehensive survey on the characteristics of abuse of a representative sample of 3000 young workers (aged 18-35 years)from the Abruzzo Region of Italy. This paper describes its main methodological issues and the complete version of the questionnaire HW-80 (Healthy-Worker 80), that will be administered. HW-80 questionnaire includes 80 items on demographic characteristics, self-reported health, job-related stress, work organization, pattern of abuse, physical activity and others, and several of these items have been taken or derived from repeatedly validated questionnaires (SF-12, CAGE, Job-Strain, Effort-Reward, EU-DAP, etc.). The aims of the Valentino Project are to quantify the prevalence of obesity, alcohol use, smoking and drug addiction in diverse typologies of workers, and to describe their pattern of use. The ultimate purpose is to provide the necessary knowledge for the development of preventive strategies targeted to different professions, in order to maximize their efficacy.

[Evaluation of the appropriateness of hospital admissions using the iso-gravity classification systems APR-DRG and Disease Staging and the Italian version of Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol (AEP)]. / Valutazione dell'appropriatezza dei ricoveri in un policlinico universitario: analisi mediante l'uso comparativo dei sistemi di classificazione iso-gravità APR-DRG e disease staging e del PRUO.

Our main purpose was to evaluate the organizational appropriateness of admissions made in a university hospital, by comparing two iso-gravity classification systems, APR-DRG and Disease Staging, with the Italian version of AEP (PRUO). Our analysis focused on admissions made in 2001, related to specific Diagnosis Related Groups (DRGs), which, according an Italian Law, would be considered at high risk of inappropriateness, if treated as ordinary admissions. The results obtained by using the 2 classification systems did not show statistically significant differences with respect to the total number of admissions. On the other hand, some DRGs showed statistically significant differences due to different algorithms of attribution of the severity levels used by the two systems. For almost all of the DRGs studied, the AEP-based analysis of a sample of medical records showed an higher number of inappropriate admissions in comparison with the number expected by iso-gravity classification methods. The difference is possibly due to the percentage limits of tolerability fixed by the Law for each DRG. Therefore, the authors suggest an integrated use of the two methods to evaluate organizational appropriateness of hospital admissions.

[Appropriateness evaluation of short hospital admissions using Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol (Italian version): experience of a teaching hospital]. / Applicazione dello strumento PRUO per la valutazione di appropriatezza dei ricoveri brevi: l'esperienza di un Policlinico Universitario.

Italian version of Appropriateness Evaluation Protocol (AEP) is a tool for evaluating the appropriateness of hospitalization for acute patients. In particular, it aims to verify and quantify the reasons of appropriateness associated to the day of admission and the single days of hospital stay. The aim of the present paper is to evaluate the appropriateness of ordinary, 2-3 days lasting, hospital admissions within an university hospital. We examined a sample of 518 hospital admissions: 370 admissions (71%) lasting 2 days, and 148 admissions (29%) lasting 3 days. Results analysis showed different levels of appropriateness between the 2-days and the 3-days admissions: the appropriate admissions were 18% in the sample of the 2-days admissions and 38% in the sample of 3-days admissions. Most inappropriate days of admission and stay in hospital are due to attended or to the execution of diagnostic procedures. In order to evaluate accuracy by means of AEP methodology, it is necessary to improve the quality of medical documentation using standardized medical records. AEP, in the framework of the continuous quality improvement, is a valid tool to reorganise health care processes.