Sharp decline in future productivity of tropical reforestation above 29°C mean annual temperature.

Tropical reforestation is among the most powerful tools for carbon sequestration. Yet, climate change impacts on productivity are often not accounted for when estimating its mitigation potential. Using the process-based forest growth model 3-PGmix, we analyzed future productivity of tropical reforestation in Central America. Around 29°C mean annual temperature, productivity sharply and consistently declined (-11% per 1°C of warming) across all tropical lowland climate zones and five tree species spanning a wide range of ecological characteristics. Under a high-emission scenario (SSP3-7.0), productivity of dry tropical reforestation nearly halved and tropical moist and rain forest sites showed moderate losses around 10% by the end of the century. Under SSP2-4.5, tropical moist and rain forest sites were resilient and tropical dry forest sites showed moderate losses (-17%). Increased vapor pressure deficit, caused by increasing temperatures, was the main driver of growth decline. Thus, to continue following high-emission pathways could reduce the effectiveness of reforestation as climate action tool.

Drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience to tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic Basin.

The North Atlantic Basin (NAB) has seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones since the 1980s, with record-breaking seasons in 2017 and 2020. However, little is known about how coastal ecosystems, particularly mangroves in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, respond to these new "climate normals" at regional and subregional scales. Wind speed, rainfall, pre-cyclone forest height, and hydro-geomorphology are known to influence mangrove damage and recovery following cyclones in the NAB. However, previous studies have focused on local-scale responses and individual cyclonic events. Here, we analyze 25 years (1996-2020) of mangrove vulnerability (damage after a cyclone) and 24 years (1996-2019) of short-term resilience (recovery after damage) for the NAB and subregions, using multi-annual, remote sensing-derived databases. We used machine learning to characterize the influence of 22 potential variables on mangrove responses, including human development and long-term climate trends. Our results document variability in the rates and drivers of mangrove vulnerability and resilience, highlighting hotspots of cyclone impacts, mangrove damage, and loss of resilience. Cyclone characteristics mainly drove vulnerability at the regional level. In contrast, resilience was driven by site-specific conditions, including long-term climate trends, pre-cyclone forest structure, soil organic carbon stock, and coastal development (i.e., proximity to human infrastructure). Coastal development is associated with both vulnerability and resilience at the subregional level. Further, we highlight that loss of resilience occurs mostly in areas experiencing long-term drought across the NAB. The impacts of increasing cyclone activity on mangroves and their coastal protection service must be framed in the context of compound climate change effects and continued coastal development. Our work offers descriptive and spatial information to support the restoration and adaptive management of NAB mangroves, which need adequate health, structure, and density to protect coasts and serve as Nature-based Solutions against climate change and extreme weather events.

An Improved Framework for Estimating Organic Carbon Content of Mangrove Soils Using loss-on-ignition and Coastal Environmental Setting.

The use of loss on ignition (LOI) measurements of soil organic matter (SOM) to estimate soil organic carbon (OC) content is a decades-old practice. While there are limitations and uncertainties to this approach, it continues to be necessary for many coastal wetlands researchers and conservation practitioners without access to an elemental analyzer. Multiple measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) standards recognize the need (and uncertainty) for using this method. However, no framework exists to explain the substantial differences among equations that relate SOM to OC; consequently, equation selection can be a haphazard process leading to widely divergent and inaccurate estimates. To address this lack of clarity, we used a dataset of 1,246 soil samples from 17 mangrove regions in North, Central, and South America, and calculated SOM to OC conversion equations for six unique types of coastal environmental setting. A framework is provided for understanding differences and selecting an equation based on a study region's SOM content and whether mineral sediments are primarily terrigenous or carbonate in origin. This approach identifies the positive dependence of conversion equation slopes on regional mean SOM content and indicates a distinction between carbonate settings with mean (± 1 S.E.) OC:SOM of 0.47 (0.002) and terrigenous settings with mean OC:SOM of 0.32 (0.018). This framework, focusing on unique coastal environmental settings, is a reminder of the global variability in mangrove soil OC content and encourages continued investigation of broadscale factors that contribute to soil formation and change in blue carbon settings. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13157-023-01698-z.

Integrating blue: How do we make nationally determined contributions work for both blue carbon and local coastal communities?

Blue Carbon Ecosystems (BCEs) help mitigate and adapt to climate change but their integration into policy, such as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), remains underdeveloped. Most BCE conservation requires community engagement, hence community-scale projects must be nested within the implementation of NDCs without compromising livelihoods or social justice. Thirty-three experts, drawn from academia, project development and policy, each developed ten key questions for consideration on how to achieve this. These questions were distilled into ten themes, ranked in order of importance, giving three broad categories of people, policy & finance, and science & technology. Critical considerations for success include the need for genuine participation by communities, inclusive project governance, integration of local work into national policies and practices, sustaining livelihoods and income (for example through the voluntary carbon market and/or national Payment for Ecosystem Services and other types of financial compensation schemes) and simplification of carbon accounting and verification methodologies to lower barriers to entry.