Protection efforts have resulted in ~10% of existing fish biomass on coral reefs.

The amount of ocean protected from fishing and other human impacts has often been used as a metric of conservation progress. However, protection efforts have highly variable outcomes that depend on local conditions, which makes it difficult to quantify what coral reef protection efforts to date have actually achieved at a global scale. Here, we develop a predictive model of how local conditions influence conservation outcomes on ~2,600 coral reef sites across 44 ecoregions, which we used to quantify how much more fish biomass there is on coral reefs compared to a modeled scenario with no protection. Under the assumptions of our model, our study reveals that without existing protection efforts there would be ~10% less fish biomass on coral reefs. Thus, we estimate that coral reef protection efforts have led to approximately 1 in every 10 kg of existing fish biomass.

Managing nutrition-biodiversity trade-offs on coral reefs.

Coral reefs support an incredible abundance and diversity of fish species, with reef-associated fisheries providing important sources of income, food, and dietary micronutrients to millions of people across the tropics. However, the rapid degradation of the world's coral reefs and the decline in their biodiversity may limit their capacity to supply nutritious and affordable seafood while meeting conservation goals for sustainability. Here, we conduct a global-scale analysis of how the nutritional quality of reef fish assemblages (nutritional contribution to the recommended daily intake of calcium, iron, and zinc contained in an average 100 g fish on the reef) relates to key environmental, socioeconomic, and ecological conditions, including two key metrics of fish biodiversity. Our global analysis of more than 1,600 tropical reefs reveals that fish trophic composition is a more important driver of micronutrient concentrations than socioeconomic and environmental conditions. Specifically, micronutrient density increases as the relative biomass of herbivores and detritivores increases at lower overall biomass or under high human pressure. This suggests that the provision of essential micronutrients can be maintained or even increase where fish biomass decreases, reinforcing the need for policies that ensure sustainable fishing, and that these micronutrients are retained locally for nutrition. Furthermore, we found a negative association between micronutrient density and two metrics of fish biodiversity, revealing an important nutrition-biodiversity trade-off. Protecting reefs with high levels of biodiversity maintains key ecosystem functions, whereas sustainable fisheries management in locations with high micronutrient density could sustain the essential supply of micronutrients to coastal human communities.

Global patterns and drivers of fish reproductive potential on coral reefs.

Fish fecundity scales hyperallometrically with body mass, meaning larger females produce disproportionately more eggs than smaller ones. We explore this relationship beyond the species-level to estimate the "reproductive potential" of 1633 coral reef sites distributed globally. We find that, at the site-level, reproductive potential scales hyperallometrically with assemblage biomass, but with a smaller median exponent than at the species-level. Across all families, modelled reproductive potential is greater in fully protected sites versus fished sites. This difference is most pronounced for the important fisheries family, Serranidae. When comparing a scenario where 30% of sites are randomly fully protected to a current protection scenario, we estimate an increase in the reproductive potential of all families, and particularly for Serranidae. Such results point to the possible ecological benefits of the 30 × 30 global conservation target and showcase management options to promote the sustainability of population replenishment.

Directed conservation of the world's reef sharks and rays.

Many shark populations are in decline around the world, with severe ecological and economic consequences. Fisheries management and marine protected areas (MPAs) have both been heralded as solutions. However, the effectiveness of MPAs alone is questionable, particularly for globally threatened sharks and rays ('elasmobranchs'), with little known about how fisheries management and MPAs interact to conserve these species. Here we use a dedicated global survey of coral reef elasmobranchs to assess 66 fully protected areas embedded within a range of fisheries management regimes across 36 countries. We show that conservation benefits were primarily for reef-associated sharks, which were twice as abundant in fully protected areas compared with areas open to fishing. Conservation benefits were greatest in large protected areas that incorporate distinct reefs. However, the same benefits were not evident for rays or wide-ranging sharks that are both economically and ecologically important while also threatened with extinction. We show that conservation benefits from fully protected areas are close to doubled when embedded within areas of effective fisheries management, highlighting the importance of a mixed management approach of both effective fisheries management and well-designed fully protected areas to conserve tropical elasmobranch assemblages globally.

Ghost roads and the destruction of Asia-Pacific tropical forests.

Roads are expanding at the fastest pace in human history. This is the case especially in biodiversity-rich tropical nations, where roads can result in forest loss and fragmentation, wildfires, illicit land invasions and negative societal effects1-5. Many roads are being constructed illegally or informally and do not appear on any existing road map6-10; the toll of such 'ghost roads' on ecosystems is poorly understood. Here we use around 7,000 h of effort by trained volunteers to map ghost roads across the tropical Asia-Pacific region, sampling 1.42 million plots, each 1 km2 in area. Our intensive sampling revealed a total of 1.37 million km of roads in our plots-from 3.0 to 6.6 times more roads than were found in leading datasets of roads globally. Across our study area, road building almost always preceded local forest loss, and road density was by far the strongest correlate11 of deforestation out of 38 potential biophysical and socioeconomic covariates. The relationship between road density and forest loss was nonlinear, with deforestation peaking soon after roads penetrate a landscape and then declining as roads multiply and remaining accessible forests largely disappear. Notably, after controlling for lower road density inside protected areas, we found that protected areas had only modest additional effects on preventing forest loss, implying that their most vital conservation function is limiting roads and road-related environmental disruption. Collectively, our findings suggest that burgeoning, poorly studied ghost roads are among the gravest of all direct threats to tropical forests.

Sustainable reference points for multispecies coral reef fisheries.

Sustainably managing fisheries requires regular and reliable evaluation of stock status. However, most multispecies reef fisheries around the globe tend to lack research and monitoring capacity, preventing the estimation of sustainable reference points against which stocks can be assessed. Here, combining fish biomass data for >2000 coral reefs, we estimate site-specific sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries and use these and available catch estimates to assess the status of global coral reef fish stocks. We reveal that >50% of sites and jurisdictions with available information have stocks of conservation concern, having failed at least one fisheries sustainability benchmark. We quantify the trade-offs between biodiversity, fish length, and ecosystem functions relative to key benchmarks and highlight the ecological benefits of increasing sustainability. Our approach yields multispecies sustainable reference points for coral reef fisheries using environmental conditions, a promising means for enhancing the sustainability of the world's coral reef fisheries.

Widespread diversity deficits of coral reef sharks and rays.

A global survey of coral reefs reveals that overfishing is driving resident shark species toward extinction, causing diversity deficits in reef elasmobranch (shark and ray) assemblages. Our species-level analysis revealed global declines of 60 to 73% for five common resident reef shark species and that individual shark species were not detected at 34 to 47% of surveyed reefs. As reefs become more shark-depleted, rays begin to dominate assemblages. Shark-dominated assemblages persist in wealthy nations with strong governance and in highly protected areas, whereas poverty, weak governance, and a lack of shark management are associated with depauperate assemblages mainly composed of rays. Without action to address these diversity deficits, loss of ecological function and ecosystem services will increasingly affect human communities.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes.

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Macroalgae exhibit diverse responses to human disturbances on coral reefs.

Scientists and managers rely on indicator taxa such as coral and macroalgal cover to evaluate the effects of human disturbance on coral reefs, often assuming a universally positive relationship between local human disturbance and macroalgae. Despite evidence that macroalgae respond to local stressors in diverse ways, there have been few efforts to evaluate relationships between specific macroalgae taxa and local human-driven disturbance. Using genus-level monitoring data from 1205 sites in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, we assess whether macroalgae percent cover correlates with local human disturbance while accounting for factors that could obscure or confound relationships. Assessing macroalgae at genus level revealed that no genera were positively correlated with all human disturbance metrics. Instead, we found relationships between the division or genera of algae and specific human disturbances that were not detectable when pooling taxa into a single functional category, which is common to many analyses. The convention to use percent cover of macroalgae as an indication of local human disturbance therefore likely obscures signatures of local anthropogenic threats to reefs. Our limited understanding of relationships between human disturbance, macroalgae taxa, and their responses to human disturbances impedes the ability to diagnose and respond appropriately to these threats.

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities.

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Linking key human-environment theories to inform the sustainability of coral reefs.

Effective solutions to the ongoing "coral reef crisis" will remain limited until the underlying drivers of coral reef degradation are better understood. Here, we conduct a global-scale study of how four key metrics of ecosystem states and processes on coral reefs (top predator presence, reef fish biomass, trait diversity, and parrotfish scraping potential) are explained by 11 indicators based on key human-environment theories from the social sciences. Our global analysis of >1,500 reefs reveals three key findings. First, the proximity of the nearest market has the strongest and most consistent relationships with these ecosystem metrics. This finding is in keeping with a body of terrestrial research on how market accessibility shapes agricultural practices, but the integration of these concepts in marine systems is nascent. Second, our global study shows that resource conditions tend to display a n-shaped relationship with socioeconomic development. Specifically, the probabilities of encountering a top predator, fish biomass, and fish trait diversity were highest where human development was moderate but lower where development was either high or low. This finding contrasts with previous regional-scale research demonstrating an environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis (which predicts a U-shaped relationship between socioeconomic development and resource conditions). Third, together, our ecosystem metrics are best explained by the integration of different human-environment theories. Our best model includes the interactions between indicators from different theoretical perspectives, revealing how marine reserves can have different outcomes depending on how far they are from markets and human settlements, as well as the size of the surrounding human population.

COVID-19 impacts on coastal communities in Kenya.

COVID-19 is continuing to have far-reaching impacts around the world, including on small-scale fishing communities. This study details the findings from 39 in-depth interviews with community members, community leaders, and fish traders in five communities in Kenya about their experiences since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in March, 2020. The interviews were conducted by mobile phone between late August and early October 2020. In each community, people were impacted by curfews, rules about gathering, closed travel routes, and bans on certain activities. Fish trade and fisheries livelihoods were greatly disrupted. Respondents from all communities emphasized how COVID-19 had disrupted relationships between fishers, traders, and customers; changed market demand; and ultimately made fishing and fish trading livelihoods very difficult to sustain. While COVID-19 impacted different groups in the communities-i.e., fishers, female fish traders, and male fish traders-all experienced a loss of income and livelihoods, reduced cash flow, declining food security, and impacts on wellbeing. As such, although small-scale fisheries can act as a crucial safety net in times of stress, the extent of COVID-19 disruptions to alternative and informal livelihoods stemmed cash flow across communities, and meant that fishing was unable to fulfil a safety net function as it may have done during past disruptions. As the pandemic continues to unfold, ensuring that COVID-19 safe policies and protocols support continued fishing or diversification into other informal livelihoods, and that COVID-19 support reaches the most vulnerable, will be critical in safeguarding the wellbeing of families in these coastal communities.

Evaluating outcomes of conservation with multidimensional indicators of well-being.

Many conservation interventions are hypothesized to be beneficial for both the environment and people's well-being, but this has rarely been tested rigorously. We examined the effects of adoption or nonadoption of a conservation intervention on 3 dimensions of people's well-being (material, relational, and subjective) over time. We focused on a fisheries bycatch management initiative intended to reduce environmental externalities associated with resource extraction. We collected panel data from fishers (n = 250) in villages with (adopters and nonadopters) and without (control) the conservation intervention 3 times over 2 years. We found no evidence that adoption reduced any of the 3 dimensions of well-being in the local populations affected by the intervention. There were modest improvements in material (t = -1.58) and subjective livelihood well-being (p = 0.04) for adopters relative to nonadopters over time. The variations in well-being experiences (in terms of magnitude of change) among adopters, nonadopters, and controls across the different domains over time affirmed the dynamic and social nature of well-being.

Evaluación de los Resultados de la Conservación mediante Indicadores Multidimensionales de Bienestar Resumen Se plantea que muchas intervenciones de conservación son benéficas tanto para el ambiente como para el bienestar de las personas, pero esto rara vez ha sido analizado rigurosamente. Examinamos los efectos de la adopción o no adopción de una intervención de conservación sobre tres dimensiones del bienestar de las personas (material, relacional, subjetivo) a lo largo del tiempo. Nos enfocamos en la iniciativa de manejo de la captura accesoria de una pesquería cuya intención es reducir las externalidades asociadas con la extracción de recursos. Recolectamos datos de panel de los pescadores (n = 250) en aldeas con (adoptantes y no adoptantes) y sin (control) la intervención de conservación tres veces durante dos años. No encontramos evidencia de que la adopción redujera cualquiera de las tres dimensiones del bienestar en las poblaciones locales afectadas por la intervención. Con el tiempo, notamos que hubo mejoras modestas en el bienestar de sustento material (t = −1.58) y subjetivo (p = 0.04) para los adoptantes en comparación con los no adoptantes. Las variaciones en las experiencias de bienestar (en cuanto a la magnitud del cambio) entre los adoptantes, no adoptantes y los controles a lo largo de los diferentes dominios a través del tiempo reafirmaron la naturaleza dinámica y social del bienestar.

Maximizing regional biodiversity requires a mosaic of protection levels.

Protected areas are the flagship management tools to secure biodiversity from anthropogenic impacts. However, the extent to which adjacent areas with distinct protection levels host different species numbers and compositions remains uncertain. Here, using reef fishes, European alpine plants, and North American birds, we show that the composition of species in adjacent Strictly Protected, Restricted, and Non-Protected areas is highly dissimilar, whereas the number of species is similar, after controlling for environmental conditions, sample size, and rarity. We find that between 12% and 15% of species are only recorded in Non-Protected areas, suggesting that a non-negligible part of regional biodiversity occurs where human activities are less regulated. For imperiled species, the proportion only recorded in Strictly Protected areas reaches 58% for fishes, 11% for birds, and 7% for plants, highlighting the fundamental and unique role of protected areas and their environmental conditions in biodiversity conservation.

Markets and the crowding out of conservation-relevant behavior.

Markets are increasingly being incorporated into many aspects of daily life and are becoming an important part of the conservation solution space. Although market-based solutions to environmental problems can result in improvements to conservation, a body of social science research highlights how markets may also have unforeseen consequences by crowding out or displacing 3 key types of behaviors potentially relevant to conservation, including people's willingness to engage in collective action and civic duty; tolerance for inflicting harm on others (third-party externalities); and desire for equity. Better understanding of the contexts and mechanisms through which this crowding out occurs and whether specific market-based instruments are more prone to different types of crowding out will be crucial to developing novel conservation initiatives that can reduce or prevent crowding out.

Los Mercados y el Desplazamiento del Comportamiento Relevante para la Conservación Resumen Los mercados cada vez están más incorporados dentro de muchos aspectos de la vida diaria y se están transformando en una parte importante del espacio de las soluciones de conservación. Aunque las soluciones basadas en los mercados para los problemas ambientales pueden resultar en mejoras para la conservación, una parte de los estudios sociales resaltan cómo los mercados también pueden tener consecuencias imprevistas al desplazar o excluir tres tipos importantes de comportamiento potencialmente relevantes para la conservación: la disposición de las personas a participar en acciones colectivas y deberes cívicos, la tolerancia a infligir daño a otros (efectos externos de terceros) y el anhelo por la equidad. Un mejor entendimiento de los contextos y los mecanismos mediante los cuales ocurre este desplazamiento y si los instrumentos basados en los mercados son más susceptibles a los diferentes tipos de desplazamiento serán elementos cruciales para desarrollar iniciativas de conservación novedosas que puedan reducir o prevenir el desplazamiento.

Meeting fisheries, ecosystem function, and biodiversity goals in a human-dominated world.

The worldwide decline of coral reefs necessitates targeting management solutions that can sustain reefs and the livelihoods of the people who depend on them. However, little is known about the context in which different reef management tools can help to achieve multiple social and ecological goals. Because of nonlinearities in the likelihood of achieving combined fisheries, ecological function, and biodiversity goals along a gradient of human pressure, relatively small changes in the context in which management is implemented could have substantial impacts on whether these goals are likely to be met. Critically, management can provide substantial conservation benefits to most reefs for fisheries and ecological function, but not biodiversity goals, given their degraded state and the levels of human pressure they face.

Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries.

Climate change can alter conditions that sustain food production and availability, with cascading consequences for food security and global economies. Here, we evaluate the vulnerability of societies to the simultaneous impacts of climate change on agriculture and marine fisheries at a global scale. Under a "business-as-usual" emission scenario, ~90% of the world's population-most of whom live in the most sensitive and least developed countries-are projected to be exposed to losses of food production in both sectors, while less than 3% would live in regions experiencing simultaneous productivity gains by 2100. Under a strong mitigation scenario comparable to achieving the Paris Agreement, most countries-including the most vulnerable and many of the largest CO2 producers-would experience concomitant net gains in agriculture and fisheries production. Reducing societies' vulnerability to future climate impacts requires prompt mitigation actions led by major CO2 emitters coupled with strategic adaptation within and across sectors.

Social-environmental drivers inform strategic management of coral reefs in the Anthropocene.

Without drastic efforts to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate globalized stressors, tropical coral reefs are in jeopardy. Strategic conservation and management requires identification of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving the persistence of scleractinian coral assemblages-the foundation species of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we compiled coral abundance data from 2,584 Indo-Pacific reefs to evaluate the influence of 21 climate, social and environmental drivers on the ecology of reef coral assemblages. Higher abundances of framework-building corals were typically associated with: weaker thermal disturbances and longer intervals for potential recovery; slower human population growth; reduced access by human settlements and markets; and less nearby agriculture. We therefore propose a framework of three management strategies (protect, recover or transform) by considering: (1) if reefs were above or below a proposed threshold of >10% cover of the coral taxa important for structural complexity and carbonate production; and (2) reef exposure to severe thermal stress during the 2014-2017 global coral bleaching event. Our findings can guide urgent management efforts for coral reefs, by identifying key threats across multiple scales and strategic policy priorities that might sustain a network of functioning reefs in the Indo-Pacific to avoid ecosystem collapse.