Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems.

Energy transition scenarios are characterized by increasing electrification and improving efficiency of energy end uses, rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector, and deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies to offset remaining emissions. Although hydrocarbon fuels typically decline in such scenarios, significant volumes remain in many scenarios even at the time of net-zero emissions. While scenarios rely on different approaches for decarbonizing remaining fuels, the underlying drivers for these differences are unclear. Here we develop several illustrative net-zero systems in a simple structural energy model and show that, for a given set of final energy demands, assumptions about the use of biomass and CO2 sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated. Limiting one resource may increase reliance on another, implying that decisions about using or restricting resources in pursuit of net-zero objectives could have significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.

Lichen biomonitoring to assess spatial variability, potential sources and human health risks of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and airborne metal concentrations in Manchester (UK).

Airborne metals and organic pollutants are linked to severe human health impacts, i.e. affecting the nervous system and being associated with cancer. Airborne metals and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban environments are derived from diverse sources, including combustion and industrial and vehicular emissions, posing a threat to air quality and subsequently human health. A lichen biomonitoring approach was used to assess spatial variability of airborne metals and PAHs, identify potential pollution sources and assess human health risks across the City of Manchester (UK). Metal concentrations recorded in lichen samples were highest within the city centre area and along the major road network, and lichen PAH profiles were dominated by 4-ring PAHs (189.82 ng g-1 in Xanthoria parietina), with 5- and 6-ring PAHs also contributing to the overall PAH profile. Cluster analysis and pollution index factor (PIF) calculations for lichen-derived metal concentrations suggested deteriorated air quality being primarily linked to vehicular emissions. Comparably, PAH diagnostic ratios identified vehicular sources as a primary cause of PAH pollution across Manchester. However, local more complex sources (e.g. industrial emissions) were further identified. Human health risk assessment found a "moderate" risk for adults and children by airborne potential harmful element (PHEs) concentrations, whereas PAH exposure in Manchester is potentially linked to 1455 (ILCR = 1.45 × 10-3) cancer cases (in 1,000,000). Findings of this study indicate that an easy-to-use lichen biomonitoring approach can aid to identify hotspots of impaired air quality and potential human health impacts by airborne metals and PAHs across an urban environment, particularly at locations that are not continuously covered by (non-)automated air quality measurement programmes.

High spatial resolution assessment of air quality in urban centres using lichen carbon, nitrogen and sulfur contents and stable-isotope-ratio signatures.

Air pollution and poor air quality is impacting human health globally and is a major cause of respiratory and cardiovascular disease and damage to human organ systems. Automated air quality monitoring stations continuously record airborne pollutant concentrations, but are restricted in number, costly to maintain and cannot document all spatial variability of airborne pollutants. Biomonitors, such as lichens, are commonly used as an inexpensive alternative to assess the degree of pollution and monitor air quality. However, only a few studies combined lichen carbon, nitrogen and sulfur contents, with their stable-isotope-ratio signatures (δ13C, δ15N and δ34S values) to assess spatial variability of air quality and to 'fingerprint' potential pollution sources. In this study, a high-spatial resolution lichen biomonitoring approach (using Xanthoria parietina and Physcia spp.) was applied to the City of Manchester (UK), the centre of the urban conurbation Greater Manchester, including considerations of its urban characteristics (e.g., building heights and traffic statistics), to investigate finer spatial detail urban air quality. Lichen wt% N and δ15N signatures, combined with lichen nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+) concentrations, suggest a complex mixture of airborne NOx and NHx compounds across Manchester. In contrast, lichen S wt%, combined with δ34S strongly suggest anthropogenic sulfur sources, whereas C wt% and δ13C signatures were not considered reliable indicators of atmospheric carbon emissions. Manchester's urban attributes were found to influence lichen pollutant loadings, suggesting deteriorated air quality in proximity to highly trafficked roads and densely built-up areas. Lichen elemental contents and stable-isotope-ratio signatures can be used to identify areas of poor air quality, particularly at locations not covered by automated air quality measurement stations. Therefore, lichen biomonitoring approaches provide a beneficial method to supplement automated monitoring stations and also to assess finer spatial variability of urban air quality.

Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an integrated assessment model.

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the global change analysis model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the shared socioeconomic pathways. Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions are more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10669-022-09860-4.

Actions for reducing US emissions at least 50% by 2030.

Policies must help decarbonize power and transport sectors.

Role of climate goals and clean-air policies on reducing future air pollution deaths in China: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Over 3 million people die every year from diseases caused by exposure to outdoor PM2·5 air pollution, and more than a quarter of these premature deaths occur in China. In addition to clean-air policies that target pollution emissions, climate policies aimed at reducing fossil-fuel CO2 emissions (eg, to avoid 1·5°C of warming) might also greatly improve air quality and public health. However, no comprehensive accounting of public health outcomes has been done under different energy pathways and local clean-air management decisions in China. We aimed to develop an integrated method for quantifying the health co-benefits from different climate, energy, and clean-air policy scenarios and to assess the relationship between climate and clean-air policies and future health burdens in China, where an ageing population will further exacerbate the effects of air pollution. METHODS: For this modelling study, we used a China-focused integrated assessment model and a dynamic emission projection model to project future Chinese air quality in scenarios spanning a range of global climate targets (1·5°C, 2°C, national determined contributions [NDC], unambitious, baseline, and 4·5°C) and national clean-air actions (termed 2015-pollution, current-pollution, and ambitious-pollution). We then evaluated the health effects of PM2·5 air pollution in the scenario matrix using the air quality model and the latest epidemiological concentration-response functions from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. FINDINGS: We found that, without ambitious climate mitigation (eg, under current NDC pledge), Chinese deaths related to PM2·5 air pollution might not always decrease-and might often grow-by 2050 compared with the base year of 2015, regardless of clean-air policies and air quality improvements. For example, in the scenario that tracks China's current NDC pledge and uses the best available pollution control technologies (the ambitious-pollution and NDC goals scenario), PM2·5-related deaths in China would decrease slightly by 2030 to 1·23 million per year (95% CI 0·95-1·51) from 1·25 million (1·04-1·46) in 2015, but would not decrease further by 2050 (1·21 million, 0·86-1·60) despite substantial and continuous improvements in population-weighted air quality (from 27·2 µg/m3 in 2030 to 16·0 µg/m3 in 2050). The contrary trends of improving air quality and increasing PM2·5-related deaths in many of our scenarios revealed the extent to which extra efforts are needed to compensate for the increasing age of China's population in the future. With the scenarios that included ambitious clean-air policies and met international climate goals to avoid 1·5°C and 2°C of warming (the ambitious-pollution-2°C goals scenario and the ambitious-pollution-1·5°C goals scenario), we observed substantial decreases in China's PM2·5-related deaths of 0·32-0·55 million deaths compared with NDC goals in 2050, and age-standardised death rates decreased by 10·2-14·2 deaths per 100 000 population per year. INTERPRETATION: Our results show that ambitious climate policies (ie, limiting global average temperature rise to well below 2°C) and low-carbon energy transitions coupled with stringent clean-air policies are necessary to substantially reduce the human health effects from air pollution in China, regardless of socioeconomic assumptions. Our findings could help policy makers understand the crucial links between climate policy and public health. FUNDING: The National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Rapid SABRE Catalyst Scavenging Using Functionalized Silicas.

In recent years the NMR hyperpolarisation method signal amplification by reversible exchange (SABRE) has been applied to multiple substrates of potential interest for in vivo investigation. Unfortunately, SABRE commonly requires an iridium-containing catalyst that is unsuitable for biomedical applications. This report utilizes inductively coupled plasma-optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES) to investigate the potential use of metal scavengers to remove the iridium catalytic species from the solution. The most sensitive iridium emission line at 224.268 nm was used in the analysis. We report the effects of varying functionality, chain length, and scavenger support identity on iridium scavenging efficiency. The impact of varying the quantity of scavenger utilized is reported for the three scavengers with the highest iridium removed from initial investigations: 3-aminopropyl (S1), 3-(imidazole-1-yl)propyl (S4), and 2-(2-pyridyl) (S5) functionalized silica gels. Exposure of an activated SABRE sample (1.6 mg mL-1 of iridium catalyst) to 10 mg of the most promising scavenger (S5) resulted in <1 ppm of iridium being detectable by ICP-OES after 2 min of exposure. We propose that combining the approach described herein with other recently reported approaches, such as catalyst separated-SABRE (CASH-SABRE), would enable the rapid preparation of a biocompatible SABRE hyperpolarized bolus.

Spatiotemporal variability of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pollution in Manchester (UK) city centre (2017-2018) using a fine spatial scale single-NOx diffusion tube network.

Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) is linked to poor air quality and severe human health impacts, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and being responsible annually for approximately 23,500 premature deaths in the UK. Automated air quality monitoring stations continuously record pollutants in urban environments but are restricted in number (need for electricity, maintenance and trained operators), only record air quality proximal to their location and cannot document variability of airborne pollutants at finer spatial scales. As an alternative, passive sampling devices such as Palmes-type diffusion tubes can be used to assess the spatial variability of air quality in greater detail, due to their simplicity (e.g. small, light material, no electricity required) and suitability for long-term studies (e.g. deployable in large numbers, useful for screening studies). Accordingly, a one passive diffusion tube sampling approach has been adapted to investigate spatial and temporal variability of NO2 concentrations across the City of Manchester (UK). Spatial and temporal detail was obtained by sampling 45 locations over a 12-month period (361 days, to include seasonal variability), resulting in 1080 individual NO2 measurements. Elevated NO2 concentrations, exceeding the EU/UK limit value of 40 µg m-3, were recorded throughout the study period (N = 278; 26% of individual measurements), particularly during colder months and across a wide area including residential locations. Of 45 sampling locations, 24% (N = 11) showed annual average NO2 above the EU/UK limit value, whereas 16% (N = 7) showed elevated NO2 (> 40 µg m-3) for at least 6 months of deployment. Highest NO2 was recorded in proximity of highly trafficked major roads, with urban factors such as surrounding building heights also influencing NO2 dispersion and distribution. This study demonstrates the importance of high spatial coverage to monitor atmospheric NO2 concentrations across urban environments, to aid identification of areas of human health concern, especially in areas that are not covered by automated monitoring stations. This simple, reasonably cheap, quick and easy method, using a single-NOx diffusion tube approach, can aid identification of NO2 hotspots and provides fine spatial detail of deteriorated air quality. Such an approach can be easily transferred to comparable urban environments to provide an initial screening tool for air quality and air pollution, particularly where local automated air quality monitoring stations are limited. Additionally, such an approach can support air quality assessment studies, e.g. lichen or moss biomonitoring studies.

Distinguishing atmospheric nitrogen compounds (nitrate and ammonium) in lichen biomonitoring studies.

Nitrogen speciation, i.e. distinguishing nitrate (NO3-) and ammonium (NH4+), is commonly undertaken in soil studies, but has not been conducted extensively for lichens. Lichen total nitrogen contents (N wt%) reflect airborne atmospheric nitrogen loadings, originating from anthropogenic sources (e.g. vehicular and agricultural/livestock emissions). Albeit nitrogen being an essential lichen nutrient, nitrogen compound (i.e. NO3- and NH4+) concentrations in the atmosphere can have deleterious effects on lichens. Moreover, N wt% do not provide information on individual nitrogen compounds, i.e. NO3- and NH4+ which are major constituents of atmospheric particulate matter (e.g. PM10 and PM2.5). This study presents a novel method to separate and quantify NO3- and NH4+ extracted from lichen material. An optimal approach was identified by testing different strengths and volumes of potassium chloride (KCl) solutions and variable extraction times, i.e. the use of 3% KCl for 6 hours can achieve a same-day extraction and subsequent ion chromatography (IC) analysis for reproducible lichen nitrate and ammonium concentration determinations. Application of the method was undertaken by comparing urban and rural Xanthoria parietina samples to investigate the relative importance of the two nitrogen compounds in contrasting environments. Findings presented showed that lichen nitrogen compound concentrations varied in rural and urban X. parietina samples, suggesting different atmospheric nitrogen loadings from potentially different sources (e.g. agricultural and traffic) and varied deposition patterns (e.g. urban layout impacts). Despite potential impacts of nitrogen compounds on lichen metabolism, the approach presented here can be used for quantification of two different nitrogen compounds in lichen biomonitoring studies that will provide specific information on spatial and temporal variability of airborne NO3- and NH4+ concentrations that act as precursors of particulate matter, affecting air quality and subsequently human health.

Can updated climate pledges limit warming well below 2°C?

Increased ambition and implementation are essential.

Energy systems in scenarios at net-zero CO2 emissions.

Achieving net-zero CO2 emissions has become the explicitgoal of many climate-energy policies around the world. Although many studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways, the common features and tradeoffs of energy systems across global scenarios at the point of net-zero CO2 emissions have not yet been evaluated. Here, we examine the energy systems of 177 net-zero scenarios and discuss their long-term technological and regional characteristics in the context of current energy policies. We find that, on average, renewable energy sources account for 60% of primary energy at net-zero (compared to ∼14% today), with slightly less than half of that renewable energy derived from biomass. Meanwhile, electricity makes up approximately half of final energy consumed (compared to ∼20% today), highlighting the extent to which solid, liquid, and gaseous fuels remain prevalent in the scenarios even when emissions reach net-zero. Finally, residual emissions and offsetting negative emissions are not evenly distributed across world regions, which may have important implications for negotiations on burden-sharing, human development, and equity.

A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China.

More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.

Pathways of China's PM2.5 air quality 2015-2060 in the context of carbon neutrality.

Clean air policies in China have substantially reduced particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution in recent years, primarily by curbing end-of-pipe emissions. However, reaching the level of the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines may instead depend upon the air quality co-benefits of ambitious climate action. Here, we assess pathways of Chinese PM2.5 air quality from 2015 to 2060 under a combination of scenarios that link global and Chinese climate mitigation pathways (i.e. global 2°C- and 1.5°C-pathways, National Determined Contributions (NDC) pledges and carbon neutrality goals) to local clean air policies. We find that China can achieve both its near-term climate goals (peak emissions) and PM2.5 air quality annual standard (35 µg/m3) by 2030 by fulfilling its NDC pledges and continuing air pollution control policies. However, the benefits of end-of-pipe control reductions are mostly exhausted by 2030, and reducing PM2.5 exposure of the majority of the Chinese population to below 10 µg/m3 by 2060 will likely require more ambitious climate mitigation efforts such as China's carbon neutrality goals and global 1.5°C-pathways. Our results thus highlight that China's carbon neutrality goals will play a critical role in reducing air pollution exposure to the level of the WHO guidelines and protecting public health.

Fusing subnational with national climate action is central to decarbonization: the case of the United States.

Approaches that root national climate strategies in local actions will be essential for all countries as they develop new nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. The potential impact of climate action from non-national actors in delivering higher global ambition is significant. Sub-national action in the United States provides a test for how such actions can accelerate emissions reductions. We aggregated U.S. state, city, and business commitments within an integrated assessment model to assess how a national climate strategy can be built upon non-state actions. We find that existing commitments alone could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, and that enhancing actions by these actors could reduce emissions up to 37%. We show how these actions can provide a stepped-up basis for additional federal action to reduce emissions by 49%-consistent with 1.5 °C. Our analysis demonstrates sub-national actions can lead to substantial reductions and support increased national action.

The domestic and international implications of future climate for U.S. agriculture in GCAM.

Agricultural crop yields are susceptible to changes in future temperature, precipitation, and other Earth system factors. Future changes to these physical Earth system attributes and their effects on agricultural crop yields are highly uncertain. United States agricultural producers will be affected by such changes whether they occur domestically or internationally through international commodity markets. Here we present a replication study of previous investigations (with different models) showing that potential direct domestic climate effects on crop yields in the U.S. have financial consequences for U.S. producers on the same order of magnitude but opposite in sign to indirect financial impacts on U.S. producers from climate effects on crop yields elsewhere in the world. We conclude that the analysis of country-specific financial climate impacts cannot ignore indirect effects arising through international markets. We find our results to be robust across a wide range of potential future crop yield impacts analyzed in the multi-sector dynamic global model GCAM.

A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal.

To understand how global warming can be kept well below 2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius, climate policy uses scenarios that describe how society could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. However, current scenarios have a key weakness: they typically focus on reaching specific climate goals in 2100. This choice may encourage risky pathways that delay action, reach higher-than-acceptable mid-century warming, and rely on net removal of carbon dioxide thereafter to undo their initial shortfall in reductions of emissions. Here we draw on insights from physical science to propose a scenario framework that focuses on capping global warming at a specific maximum level with either temperature stabilization or reversal thereafter. The ambition of climate action until carbon neutrality determines peak warming, and can be followed by a variety of long-term states with different sustainability implications. The approach proposed here closely mirrors the intentions of the United Nations Paris Agreement, and makes questions of intergenerational equity into explicit design choices.

The Paris pledges and the energy-water-land nexus in Latin America: Exploring implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions.

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations worldwide pledged emissions reductions (Nationally Determined Contributions-NDCs) to avert the threat of climate change, and agreed to periodically review these pledges to strengthen their level of ambition. Previous studies have analyzed NDCs largely in terms of their implied contribution to limit global warming, their implications on the energy sector or on mitigation costs. Nevertheless, a gap in the literature exists regarding the understanding of implications of the NDCs on countries' Energy-Water-Land nexus resource systems. The present paper explores this angle within the regional context of Latin America by employing the Global Change Assessment Model, a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model capable of representing key system-wide interactions among nexus sectors and mitigation policies. By focusing on Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Colombia, we stress potential implications on national-level water demands depending on countries' strategies to enforce energy-related emissions reductions and their interplays with the land sector. Despite the differential implications of the Paris pledges on each country, increased water demands for crop and biomass irrigation and for electricity generation stand out as potential trade-offs that may emerge under the NDC policy. Hence, this study underscores the need of considering a nexus resource planning framework (known as "Nexus Approach") in the forthcoming NDCs updating cycles as a mean to contribute toward sustainable development.

Use of multi-criteria decision analysis to identify potentially dangerous glacial lakes.

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) represent a significant threat in deglaciating environments, necessitating the development of GLOF hazard and risk assessment procedures. Here, we outline a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach that can be used to rapidly identify potentially dangerous lakes in regions without existing tailored GLOF risk assessments, where a range of glacial lake types exist, and where field data are sparse or non-existent. Our MCDA model (1) is desk-based and uses freely and widely available data inputs and software, and (2) allows the relative risk posed by a range of glacial lake types to be assessed simultaneously within any region. A review of the factors that influence GLOF risk, combined with the strict rules of criteria selection inherent to MCDA, has allowed us to identify 13 exhaustive, non-redundant, and consistent risk criteria. We use our MCDA model to assess the risk of 16 extant glacial lakes and 6 lakes that have already generated GLOFs, and found that our results agree well with previous studies. For the first time in GLOF risk assessment, we employed sensitivity analyses to test the strength of our model results and assumptions, and to identify lakes that are sensitive to the criteria and risk thresholds used. A key benefit of the MCDA method is that sensitivity analyses are readily undertaken. Overall, these sensitivity analyses lend support to our model, although we suggest that further work is required to determine the relative importance of assessment criteria, and the thresholds that determine the level of risk for each criterion. As a case study, the tested method was then applied to 25 potentially dangerous lakes in the Bolivian Andes, where GLOF risk is poorly understood; 3 lakes are found to pose 'medium' or 'high' risk, and require further detailed investigation.