Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines on Covid-19 incidence and mortality in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Given the waning of vaccine effectiveness and the shifting of the most dominant strains in the U.S., it is imperative to understand the association between vaccination coverage and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease and mortality at the community levels and whether that association might vary according to the dominant SARS-CoV-2 strains in the U.S. METHODS: Generalized estimating equations were used to estimate associations between U.S. county-level cumulative vaccination rates and booster distribution and the daily change in county-wide Coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) risks and mortality during Alpha, Delta and Omicron predominance. Models were adjusted for potential confounders at both county and state level. A 2-week lag and a 4-week lag were introduced to assess vaccination rate impact on incidence and mortality, respectively. RESULTS: Among 3,073 counties in 48 states, the average county population complete vaccination rate of all age groups was 50.79% as of March 11th, 2022. Each percentage increase in vaccination rates was associated with reduction of 4% (relative risk (RR) 0.9607 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.9553, 0.9661)) and 3% (RR 0.9694 (95% CI: 0.9653, 0.9736)) in county-wide COVID-19 cases and mortality, respectively, when Alpha was the dominant variant. The associations between county-level vaccine rates and COVID-19 incidence diminished during the Delta and Omicron predominance. However, each percent increase in people receiving a booster shot was associated with reduction of 6% (RR 0.9356 (95% CI: 0.9235, 0.9479)) and 4% (RR 0.9595 (95% CI: 0.9431, 0.9761)) in COVID-19 incidence and mortality in the community, respectively, during the Omicron predominance. CONCLUSIONS: Associations between complete vaccination rates and COVID-19 incidence and mortality appeared to vary with shifts in the dominant variant, perhaps due to variations in vaccine efficacy by variant or to waning vaccine immunity over time. Vaccine boosters were associated with notable protection against Omicron disease and mortality.

Evaluation of feasibility phase of adaptive version of locally made bubble continuous positive airway pressure oxygen therapy for the treatment of COVID-19 positive and negative adults with severe pneumonia and hypoxaemia.

Background: Bubble continuous positive airway pressure (bCPAP) oxygen therapy has been shown to be safe and effective in treating children with severe pneumonia and hypoxaemia in Bangladesh. Due to lack of adequate non-invasive ventilatory support during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, we aimed to evaluate whether bCPAP was safe and feasible when adapted for use in adults with similar indications. Methods: Adults (18-64 years) with severe pneumonia and moderate hypoxaemia (80 to <90% oxygen saturation (SpO2) in room air) were provided bCPAP via nasal cannula at a flow rate of 10 litres per minute (l/min) oxygen at 10 centimetres (cm) H2O pressure, in two tertiary hospitals in Dhaka, Bangladesh. Qualitative interviews and focus group discussions, using a descriptive phenomenological approach, were performed with patients and staff (n = 39) prior to and after the introduction (n = 12 and n = 27 respectively) to understand the operational challenges to the introduction of bCPAP. Results: We enrolled 30 adults (median age 52, interquartile range (IQR) 40-60 years) with severe pneumonia and hypoxaemia and/or acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) irrespective of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test results to receive bCPAP. At baseline mean SpO2 on room air was 87% (±2) which increased to 98% (±2), after initiation of bCPAP. The mean duration of bCPAP oxygen therapy was 14.4 ± 24.8 hours. There were no adverse events of note, and no treatment failure or deaths. Operational challenges to the clinical introduction of bCPAP were lack of functioning pulse oximeters, difficult nasal interface fixation among those wearing nose pin, occasional auto bubbling or lack of bubbling in water-filled plastic bottle, lack of holder for water-filled plastic bottle, rapid turnover of trained clinicians at the hospitals, and limited routine care of patients by hospital clinicians particularly after official hours. Discussion: If the tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh are supplied with well-functioning good quality pulse oximeters and enhanced training of the doctors and nurses on proper use of adapted version of bCPAP, in treating adults with severe pneumonia and hypoxaemia with or without ARDS, the bCPAP was found to be safe, well tolerated and not associated with treatment failure across all study participants. These observations increase the confidence level of the investigators to consider a future efficacy trial of adaptive bCPAP oxygen therapy compared to WHO standard low flow oxygen therapy in such patients. Conclusion: s Although bCPAP oxygen therapy was found to be safe and feasible in this pilot study, several challenges were identified that need to be taken into account when planning a definitive clinical trial.

Multiple introductions of multidrug-resistant typhoid associated with acute infection and asymptomatic carriage, Kenya.

Background: Understanding the dynamics of infection and carriage of typhoid in endemic settings is critical to finding solutions to prevention and control. Methods: In a 3-year case-control study, we investigated typhoid among children aged <16 years (4670 febrile cases and 8549 age matched controls) living in an informal settlement, Nairobi, Kenya. Results: 148 S. Typhi isolates from cases and 95 from controls (stool culture) were identified; a carriage frequency of 1 %. Whole-genome sequencing showed 97% of cases and 88% of controls were genotype 4.3.1 (Haplotype 58), with the majority of each (76% and 88%) being multidrug-resistant strains in three sublineages of the H58 genotype (East Africa 1 (EA1), EA2, and EA3), with sequences from cases and carriers intermingled. Conclusions: The high rate of multidrug-resistant H58 S. Typhi, and the close phylogenetic relationships between cases and controls, provides evidence for the role of carriers as a reservoir for the community spread of typhoid in this setting. Funding: National Institutes of Health (R01AI099525); Wellcome Trust (106158/Z/14/Z); European Commission (TyphiNET No 845681); National Institute for Health Research (NIHR); Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1175797).

Cholera outbreak in Forcibly Displaced Myanmar National (FDMN) from a small population segment in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh, 2019.

BACKGROUND: Bangladesh experienced a sudden, large influx of forcibly displaced persons from Myanmar in August 2017. A cholera outbreak occurred in the displaced population during September-December 2019. This study aims to describe the epidemiologic characteristics of cholera patients who were hospitalized in diarrhea treatment centers (DTCs) and sought care from settlements of Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals (FDMN) as well as host country nationals during the cholera outbreak. METHODS: Diarrhea Treatment Center (DTC) based surveillance was carried out among the FDMN and host population in Teknaf and Leda DTCs hospitalized for cholera during September-December 2019. RESULTS: During the study period, 147 individuals with cholera were hospitalized. The majority, 72% of patients reported to Leda DTC. Nearly 65% sought care from FDMN settlements. About 47% of the cholera individuals were children less than 5 years old and 42% were aged 15 years and more. Half of the cholera patients were females. FDMN often reported from Camp # 26 (45%), followed by Camp # 24 (36%), and Camp # 27 (12%). Eighty-two percent of the cholera patients reported watery diarrhea. Some or severe dehydration was observed in 65% of cholera individuals. Eighty-one percent of people with cholera received pre-packaged ORS at home. About 88% of FDMN cholera patients reported consumption of public tap water. Pit latrine without water seal was often used by FDMN cholera individuals (78%). CONCLUSION: Vigilance for cholera patients by routine surveillance, preparedness, and response readiness for surges and oral cholera vaccination campaigns can alleviate the threats of cholera.

Re-evaluation of population-level protection conferred by a rotavirus vaccine using the 'fried-egg' approach in a rural setting in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: Vaccine herd protection assessed in a cluster-randomized trial (CRT) may be masked by disease transmission into the cluster from outside. However, herd effects can be unmasked using a 'fried-egg' approach whereby the analysis, restricted to the innermost households of clusters, 'yolk', creates an insulating 'egg-white' periphery. This approach has been demonstrated to unmask vaccine herd protection in reanalyses of cholera and typhoid vaccine CRTs. We applied this approach to an earlier CRT in Bangladesh of rotavirus vaccine (RV) whose overall analysis had failed to detect herd protection. Herein we present the results of this analysis. METHODS: In the study area, infants in 142 villages were randomized to receive two doses of RV with routine EPI vaccines (RV villages) or only EPI vaccines (non-RV villages). We analyzed RV protection against acute rotavirus diarrhoea for the entire cluster (P100) and P75, P50, P25 clusters, representing 75%, 50% and 25% of the innermost households for each cluster, respectively. RESULTS: During 2 years of follow-up, there was evidence of 27% overall (95 %CI: 7, 43) and 42% total protection (95 %CI: 23, 56) in the P100 cluster, but it did not increase when moved in smaller yolks. There was no evidence of indirect vaccine protection in the yolks at any cluster size. CONCLUSION: Our reanalysis of the CRT using the fried- egg approach did not detect RV herd protection. Whether these findings reflect a true inability of the RV to confer herd protection in this setting, or are due to limitations of the approach, requires further study.

Willingness to pay for oral cholera vaccines in urban Bangladesh.

INTRODUCTION: Cholera is a highly infectious disease and remains a serious public health burden in Bangladesh. The objective of the study was to measure the private demand for oral cholera vaccines (OCV) in Bangladesh and to investigate the key determinants of this demand, reflected in the household's willingness to pay (WTP) for oral cholera vaccine. METHODS: A contingent valuation method was employed in an urban setting of Bangladesh during December 2015 to January 2016. All respondents (N = 1051) received a description of World Health Organization (WHO) prequalified OCV, Shanchol™. Interviews were conducted with either the head of households or their spouse or a major economic contributor of the households. Respondents were asked about how much at maximum they were willing to pay for OCV for their own and their household members' protection. Results are presented as the average and median of the reported maximum WTP of the respondents with standard deviations and 95% confidence interval. Natural log-linear regression model was employed to examine the factors influencing participants' WTP for OCV. RESULTS: About 99% of the respondents expressed WTP for OCV with a maximum mean and median WTP per vaccination (2 doses) of US$ 2.23 and US$ 1.92 respectively. On the household level with an average number of 4.62 members, the estimated mean WTP was US$ 10 (median: US$ 7.69) which represents the perceived demand for OCV of a household to vaccinate against cholera. CONCLUSIONS: The demand of vaccination further indicates that there is a potential scope for recovering a certain portion of the expenditure of immunization program by introducing direct user fees for future cholera vaccination in Bangladesh. Findings from this study will be useful for the policy-makers to make decision on cost-recovery in future oral cholera vaccination programs in Bangladesh and in similar countries.

Epidemiology of Cholera in Bangladesh: Findings From Nationwide Hospital-based Surveillance, 2014-2018.

BACKGROUND: Despite advances in prevention, detection, and treatment, cholera remains a major public health problem in Bangladesh and little is known about cholera outside of limited historical sentinel surveillance sites. In Bangladesh, a comprehensive national cholera control plan is essential, although national data are needed to better understand the magnitude and geographic distribution of cholera. METHODS: We conducted systematic hospital-based cholera surveillance among diarrhea patients in 22 sites throughout Bangladesh from 2014 to 2018. Stool specimens were collected and tested for Vibrio cholerae by microbiological culture. Participants' socioeconomic status and clinical, sanitation, and food history were recorded. We used generalized estimating equations to identify the factors associated with cholera among diarrhea patients. RESULTS: Among 26 221 diarrhea patients enrolled, 6.2% (n = 1604) cases were V. cholerae O1. The proportion of diarrhea patients positive for cholera in children <5 years was 2.1% and in patients ≥5 years was 9.5%. The proportion of cholera in Dhaka and Chittagong Division was consistently high. We observed biannual seasonal peaks (pre- and postmonsoon) for cholera across the country, with higher cholera positivity during the postmonsoon in western regions and during the pre-monsoon season in eastern regions. Cholera risk increased with age, occupation, and recent history of diarrhea among household members. CONCLUSIONS: Cholera occurs throughout a large part of Bangladesh. Cholera-prone areas should be prioritized to control the disease by implementation of targeted interventions. These findings can help strengthen the cholera-control program and serve as the basis for future studies for tracking the impact of cholera-control interventions in Bangladesh.

Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food Made From Locally Available Food Ingredients Is Well Accepted by Children Having Severe Acute Malnutrition in Bangladesh.

BACKGROUND: With a prevalence of 3.1%, approximately, 450 000 children in Bangladesh are having severe acute malnutrition (SAM). There is currently no national community-based program run by government to take care of these children, one of the reasons being lack of access to ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF). OBJECTIVE: To develop RUTF using locally available food ingredients and test its acceptability. METHODS: A checklist was prepared for all food ingredients available and commonly consumed in Bangladesh that have the potential of being used for developing a RUTF. Linear programming was used to identify the combinations of nutrients that would result in an ideal RUTF. To test the acceptability of 2 local RUTFs compared to the prototype RUTF, Plumpy'Nut, a clinical trial with a crossover design was conducted among 30 children in the Dhaka Hospital of International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh. The acceptability was determined by using the mean proportion of offered food consumed by the children themselves. RESULTS: Two RUTFs were developed, one based on chickpea and the other on rice-lentils. The total energy content of 100 g of chickpea and rice-lentil-based RUTF were 537.4 and 534.5 kcal, protein 12.9 and 13.5 g, and fat 31.8 and 31.1 g, respectively, without any significant difference among the group. On an average, 85.7% of the offered RUTF amount was consumed by the children in 3 different RUTF groups which implies that all types of RUTF were well accepted by the children. CONCLUSION: Ready-to-use therapeutic foods were developed using locally available food ingredients-rice, lentil, and chickpeas. Chickpea-based and rice-lentil-based RUTF were well accepted by children with SAM.

Multicomponent intervention versus usual care for management of hypertension in rural Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka: study protocol for a cluster randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: High blood pressure (BP) is the leading attributable risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). In rural South Asia, hypertension continues to be a significant public health issue with sub-optimal BP control rates. The goal of the trial is to compare a multicomponent intervention (MCI) to usual care to evaluate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of the MCI for lowering BP among adults with hypertension in rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. METHODS/DESIGN: This study is a stratified, cluster randomized controlled trial with a qualitative component for evaluation of processes and stakeholder feedback. The MCI has five components: (1) home health education by government community health workers (CHWs), (2) BP monitoring and stepped-up referral to a trained general practitioner using a checklist, (3) training public and private providers in management of hypertension and using a checklist, (4) designating hypertension triage counter and hypertension care coordinators in government clinics and (5) a financing model to compensate for additional health services and provide subsidies to low income individuals with poorly controlled hypertension. Usual care will comprise existing services in the community without any additional training. The trial will be conducted on 2550 individuals aged ≥40 years with hypertension (with systolic BP ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic BP ≥90 mm Hg, based on the mean of the last two of three measurements from two separate days, or on antihypertensive therapy) in 30 rural communities in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The primary outcome is change in systolic BP from baseline to follow-up at 24 months post-randomization. The incremental cost of MCI per CVD disability-adjusted life years averted will be computed. Stakeholders including policy makers, provincial- and district-level coordinators of relevant programmes, physicians, CHWs, key community leaders, hypertensive individuals and family members in the identified clusters will be interviewed. DISCUSSION: The study will provide evidence of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of MCI strategies for BP control compared to usual care in the rural public health infrastructure in South Asian countries. If shown to be successful, MCI may be a long-term sustainable strategy for tackling the rising rates of CVD in low resourced countries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02657746 . Registered on 14 January 2016.

Estimating the cost of cholera-vaccine delivery from the societal point of view: A case of introduction of cholera vaccine in Bangladesh.

Cholera is a major global public health problem that causes both epidemic and endemic disease. The World Health Organization recommends oral cholera vaccines as a public health tool in addition to traditional prevention practices and treatments in both epidemic and endemic settings. In many developing countries like Bangladesh, the major issue concerns the affordability of this vaccine. In February 2011, a feasibility study entitled, "Introduction of Cholera Vaccine in Bangladesh (ICVB)", was conducted for a vaccination campaign using inactivated whole-cell cholera vaccine (Shanchol) in a high risk area of Mirpur, Dhaka. Empirical data obtained from this trial was used to determine the vaccination cost for a fully immunized person from the societal perspective. A total of 123,661 people were fully vaccinated receiving two doses of the vaccine, while 18,178 people received one dose of the same vaccine. The total cost for vaccine delivery was US$ 492,238 giving a total vaccination cost per fully-vaccinated individual of US$ 3.98. The purchase cost of the vaccine accounted for 58% of the overall cost of vaccination. Attempts to reduce the per-dose cost of the vaccine are likely to have a large impact on the cost of similar vaccination campaigns in the future.

Coverage and acceptability of cholera vaccine among high-risk population of urban Dhaka, Bangladesh.

The oral cholera vaccine (Shanchol), along with other interventions, is a potential new measure to prevent or control cholera. A mass cholera-vaccination programme was launched in urban Dhaka, Bangladesh, during February-April 2011 targeting about 173,041 people who are at high risk of cholera. This cross-sectional, descriptive study assessed the coverage and acceptability of the vaccine. The study used a quantitative household survey and qualitative data-collection techniques comprising focus-group discussions, in-depth interviews, and observations for assessment. The findings revealed that 88% of the target population received the first dose of the vaccine, and 79% received the second dose. Absence of persons at home was a prominent cause of not administering the first (71%) and the second dose (67%). Thirty-three percent of the respondents (n=9308) did not like the taste of the vaccine. Only 1.3% and 3% recipients of the first dose and the second dose of the vaccine respectively reported adverse effects within 28 days of vaccination, and the adverse effects included vomiting or vomiting tendency and diarrhoea. To improve the coverage of the cholera vaccine, exploration of effective solutions to reach the unvaccinated population is required. The vaccine may be more acceptable to the community through changing its taste.