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2.
EClinicalMedicine ; 69: 102463, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38426071

RESUMO

Background: Healthcare-associated infections account for substantial neonatal in-hospital mortality. Chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) whole body skin application could reduce sepsis by lowering bacterial colonisation density, although safety and optimal application regimen is unclear. Emollients, including sunflower oil, may independently improve skin condition, thereby reducing sepsis. We aimed to inform which concentration and frequency of CHG, with or without emollient, would best balance safety and the surrogate marker of efficacy of reduction in bacterial colonisation, to be taken forward in a future pragmatic trial evaluating clinical outcomes of sepsis and mortality. Methods: In this multicentre, randomised, open-label, factorial pilot trial, neonates in two hospital sites (South Africa, Bangladesh) aged 1-6 days with gestational age ≥ 28 weeks and birthweight 1000-1999 g were randomly assigned in a factorial design stratified by site to three different concentrations of CHG (0.5%, 1%, and 2%), with or without emollient (sunflower oil) applied on working days vs alternate working days. A control arm received neither product. Caregivers were unblinded although laboratory staff were blinded to randomisation Co-primary outcomes were safety (change in neonatal skin condition score incorporating dryness, erythema, and skin breakdown) and efficacy in reducing bacterial colonisation density (change in total skin bacterial log10 CFU from randomisation to day-3 and day-8). The trial is registered at the ISRCTN registry, ISRCTN 69836999. Findings: Between Apr 12 2021 and Jan 18 2022, 208 infants were randomised and 198 were included in the final analysis. Skin condition scores were low with mean 0.1 (sd = 0.3; N = 208) at baseline, 0.1 (sd = 0.3; N = 199) at day 3 and 0.1 (sd = 0.3; N = 189) at day 8, with no evidence of differences between concentration (1% CHG vs 0.5% estimate = -0.3, 95% CI = (-1.2, 0.6), p = 0.55. 2% CHG vs 0.5% CHG estimate = 0.5 (-0.4, 1.4), p = 0.30), increasing frequency (estimate = -0.4; 95% CI = (-1.1, 0.4), p = 0.33), emollient (estimate = -0.5, (-1.2, 0.3), p = 0.23) or with control (estimate = -0.9, (-2.3, 0.4), p = 0.18). Mean log10 CFU was 4.9 (sd = 3.0; N = 208) at baseline, 6.3 (sd = 3.1; N = 198) at day 3 and 8.4 (sd = 2.6; N = 183) with no evidence of differences between concentration (1% CHG vs 0.5% estimate = -0.4; 95% CI = (-1.1, 0.23); p = 0.23. 2% CHG vs 0.5% CHG estimate = 0.0 (-0.6, 0.6), p = 0.96), with increasing frequency (estimate = -0.4; 95% CI = (-0.9, 0.2); p = 0.17), with emollient (estimate = 0.4, 95% CI = (-0.2, 0.9); p = 0.18) or with control (estimate = -0.2, 95% CI = (-1.3, 0.9); p = 0.73). By day-8, overall 158/183 (86%) of neonates were colonised with Enterobacterales, and 72/183 (39%) and 69/183 (9%) with Klebsiella spp resistant to third-generation cephalosporin and carbapenems, respectively. There were no CHG-related SAEs, emollient-related SAEs, grade 3 or 4 skin scores or grade 3 or 4 hypothermias. Interpretation: In this pilot trial of CHG with or without sunflower oil, no safety issues were identified, and further trials examining clinical outcomes are warranted. The relatively late start application of emollient, at a mean of 3.8 days of life, may have reduced the impact of the intervention although no subgroup effects were detected. There was no clear evidence in favour of a specific concentration of chlorhexidine, and there was rapid colonisation with Enterobacterales with frequent antimicrobial resistance, regardless of skin application regimen. Funding: The MRC Joint Applied Global Health award, the Global Antibiotic Research and Development Partnership (GARDP), MRC Clinical Trials Unit core funding (UKRI) and St. George's, University of London.

3.
Stat Med ; 42(8): 1127-1138, 2023 04 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36661242

RESUMO

Bayesian analysis of a non-inferiority trial is advantageous in allowing direct probability statements to be made about the relative treatment difference rather than relying on an arbitrary and often poorly justified non-inferiority margin. When the primary analysis will be Bayesian, a Bayesian approach to sample size determination will often be appropriate for consistency with the analysis. We demonstrate three Bayesian approaches to choosing sample size for non-inferiority trials with binary outcomes and review their advantages and disadvantages. First, we present a predictive power approach for determining sample size using the probability that the trial will produce a convincing result in the final analysis. Next, we determine sample size by considering the expected posterior probability of non-inferiority in the trial. Finally, we demonstrate a precision-based approach. We apply these methods to a non-inferiority trial in antiretroviral therapy for treatment of HIV-infected children. A predictive power approach would be most accessible in practical settings, because it is analogous to the standard frequentist approach. Sample sizes are larger than with frequentist calculations unless an informative analysis prior is specified, because appropriate allowance is made for uncertainty in the assumed design parameters, ignored in frequentist calculations. An expected posterior probability approach will lead to a smaller sample size and is appropriate when the focus is on estimating posterior probability rather than on testing. A precision-based approach would be useful when sample size is restricted by limits on recruitment or costs, but it would be difficult to decide on sample size using this approach alone.


Assuntos
Projetos de Pesquisa , Criança , Humanos , Teorema de Bayes , Probabilidade , Tamanho da Amostra , Incerteza , Estudos de Equivalência como Asunto
5.
Lancet Child Adolesc Health ; 6(1): 49-59, 2022 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34843669

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Vancomycin is the most widely used antibiotic for neonatal Gram-positive sepsis, but clinical outcome data of dosing strategies are scarce. The NeoVanc programme comprised extensive preclinical studies to inform a randomised controlled trial to assess optimised vancomycin dosing. We compared the efficacy of an optimised regimen to a standard regimen in infants with late onset sepsis that was known or suspected to be caused by Gram-positive microorganisms. METHODS: NeoVanc was an open-label, multicentre, phase 2b, parallel-group, randomised, non-inferiority trial comparing the efficacy and toxicity of an optimised regimen of vancomycin to a standard regimen in infants aged 90 days or younger. Infants with at least three clinical or laboratory sepsis criteria or confirmed Gram-positive sepsis with at least one clinical or laboratory criterion were enrolled from 22 neonatal intensive care units in Greece, Italy, Estonia, Spain, and the UK. Infants were randomly assigned (1:1) to either the optimised regimen (25 mg/kg loading dose, followed by 15 mg/kg every 12 h or 8 h dependent on postmenstrual age, for 5 ± 1 days) or the standard regimen (no loading dose; 15 mg/kg every 24 h, 12 h, or 8 h dependent on postmenstrual age for 10 ± 2 days). Vancomycin was administered intravenously via 60 min infusion. Group allocation was not masked to local investigators or parents. The primary endpoint was success at the test of cure visit (10 ± 1 days after the end of actual vancomycin therapy) in the per-protocol population, where success was defined as the participant being alive at the test of cure visit, having a successful outcome at the end of actual vancomycin therapy, and not having a clinically or microbiologically significant relapse or new infection requiring antistaphylococcal antibiotics for more than 24 h within 10 days of the end of actual vancomycin therapy. The non-inferiority margin was -10%. Safety was assessed in the intention-to-treat population. This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT02790996). FINDINGS: Between March 3, 2017, and July 29, 2019, 242 infants were randomly assigned to the standard regimen group (n=122) or the optimised regimen group (n=120). Primary outcome data in the per-protocol population were available for 90 infants in the optimised group and 92 in the standard group. 64 (71%) of 90 infants in the optimised group and 73 (79%) of 92 in the standard group had success at test of cure visit; non-inferiority was not confirmed (adjusted risk difference -7% [95% CI -15 to 2]). Incomplete resolution of clinical or laboratory signs after 5 ± 1 days of vancomycin therapy was the main factor contributing to clinical failure in the optimised group. Abnormal hearing test results were recorded in 25 (30%) of 84 infants in the optimised group and 12 (15%) of 79 in the standard group (adjusted risk ratio 1·96 [95% CI 1·07 to 3·59], p=0·030). There were six vancomycin-related adverse events in the optimised group (one serious adverse event) and four in the standard group (two serious adverse events). 11 infants in the intention-to-treat population died (six [6%] of 102 infants in the optimised group and five [5%] of 98 in the standard group). INTERPRETATION: In the largest neonatal vancomycin efficacy trial yet conducted, no clear clinical impact of a shorter duration of treatment with a loading dose was demonstrated. The use of the optimised regimen cannot be recommended because a potential hearing safety signal was identified; long-term follow-up is being done. These results emphasise the importance of robust clinical safety assessments of novel antibiotic dosing regimens in infants. FUNDING: EU Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration.


Assuntos
Antibacterianos , Estudos de Equivalência como Asunto , Unidades de Terapia Intensiva Neonatal , Sepse/tratamento farmacológico , Vancomicina , Antibacterianos/administração & dosagem , Antibacterianos/efeitos adversos , Europa (Continente) , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Infusões Intravenosas , Sepse/mortalidade , Espanha , Fatores de Tempo , Resultado do Tratamento , Reino Unido , Vancomicina/administração & dosagem , Vancomicina/efeitos adversos
6.
PLoS One ; 16(5): e0252223, 2021.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34043696

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Paediatric global antibiotic guidelines are inconsistent, most likely due to the limited pharmacokinetic and efficacy data in this population. We investigated factors underlying variation in antibiotic dosing using data from five global point prevalence surveys. METHODS & FINDINGS: Data from 3,367 doses of the 16 most frequent intravenous antibiotics administered to children 1 month-12 years across 23 countries were analysed. For each antibiotic, we identified standard doses given as either weight-based doses (in mg/kg/day) or fixed daily doses (in mg/day), and investigated the pattern of dosing using each strategy. Factors underlying observed variation in weight-based doses were investigated using linear mixed effects models. Weight-based dosing (in mg/kg/day) clustered around a small number of peaks, and all antibiotics had 1-3 standard weight-based doses used in 5%-48% of doses. Dosing strategy was more often weight-based than fixed daily dosing for all antibiotics apart from teicoplanin, which had approximately equal proportions of dosing attributable to each strategy. No strong consistent patterns emerged to explain the historical variation in actual weight-based doses used apart from higher dosing seen in central nervous system infections, and lower in skin and soft tissue infections compared to lower respiratory tract infections. Higher dosing was noted in the Americas compared to the European region. CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic dosing in children clusters around a small number of doses, although variation remains. There is a clear opportunity for the clinical, scientific and public health communities to consolidate behind a consistent set of global antibiotic dosing guidelines to harmonise current practice and prioritise future research.


Assuntos
Antibacterianos/administração & dosagem , Regulamento Sanitário Internacional , Criança , Criança Hospitalizada/estatística & dados numéricos , Pré-Escolar , Humanos , Lactente , Masculino
7.
Br J Clin Pharmacol ; 87(7): 2847-2854, 2021 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33294979

RESUMO

AIMS: Simulations are an essential tool for investigating scenarios in pharmacokinetics-pharmacodynamics. The models used during simulation often include the effect of highly correlated covariates such as weight, height and sex, and for children also age, which complicates the construction of an in silico population. For this reason, a suitable and representative patient population is crucial for the simulations to produce meaningful results. For simulation in paediatric patients, international growth charts from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provide a reference, but these may not always be representative for specific populations, such as malnourished children with HIV or acutely unwell children. METHODS: We present a workflow to construct a virtual paediatric patient population using WHO and CDC growth charts, suggest piecewise linear functions to adjust the median of the growth charts by sex and age, and suggest visual diagnostics to compare with the target population. We applied this workflow in a population of 1206 HIV-positive African children, consisting of 19 742 observations with weight ranging from 3.8 to 79.7 kg, height from 55.5 to 180 cm, and an age between 0.40 and 18 years. RESULTS: Before adjustment, the WHO and CDC charts produced weights and heights higher compared to the observed data. After applying our methodology, we could simulate weight, height, sex and age combinations in good agreement with the observed data. CONCLUSION: The methodology presented here is flexible and may be applied to other scenarios where WHO and CDC growth standards might not be appropriate. In addition we provide R scripts and a large ready-to-use paediatric population.


Assuntos
Estatura , Infecções por HIV , Adolescente , Peso Corporal , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Simulação por Computador , Gráficos de Crescimento , Infecções por HIV/tratamento farmacológico , Infecções por HIV/epidemiologia , Humanos , Lactente , Organização Mundial da Saúde
8.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 103(1): 315-324, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32431276

RESUMO

The field standard for the detection of Schistosoma mansoni infection is Kato-Katz (KK), although it misses many active infections, especially light infections. In 2014, a reassessment of S. mansoni prevalence was conducted in Rwanda using the more sensitive point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (POC-CCA) rapid assay. A total of 19,371 children from 399 schools were selected for testing for single urine CCA. Of these, 8,697 children from 175 schools were also tested with single stool double-slide KK. Samples from eight of these 175 schools were tested again with CCA and additionally with the highly specific and sensitive up-converting phosphor-lateral flow circulating anodic antigen (UCP-LF CAA) assay. Latent class analysis was applied to all four test results to assess sensitivity and specificity of POC-CCA and estimate the proportion of trace results from Rwanda likely to be true infections. The overall prevalence of S. mansoni infection in Rwanda when CCA trace results were considered negative was 7.4% (school interquartile range [IQR] 0-8%) and 36.1% (school IQR 20-47%) when trace was considered positive. Prevalence by KK was 2.0% with a mean intensity of infection of 1.66 eggs per gram. The proportion of active infections among children diagnosed with CCA trace was estimated by statistical analysis at 61% (Bayesian credibility interval: 50-72%). These results indicate that S. mansoni infection is still widespread in Rwanda and prevalence is much underestimated by KK testing. Circulating cathodic antigen is an affordable alternative to KK and more suitable for measuring S. mansoni prevalence in low-intensity regions.


Assuntos
Antígenos de Helmintos/urina , Glicoproteínas/urina , Proteínas de Helminto/urina , Esquistossomose mansoni/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Anti-Helmínticos/uso terapêutico , Criança , Erradicação de Doenças , Ovos , Fezes/parasitologia , Feminino , Mapeamento Geográfico , Humanos , Masculino , Testes Imediatos , Praziquantel/uso terapêutico , Prevalência , Ruanda/epidemiologia , Esquistossomose mansoni/diagnóstico , Esquistossomose mansoni/prevenção & controle , Esquistossomose mansoni/urina , Instituições Acadêmicas
9.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 103(1_Suppl): 50-57, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32400344

RESUMO

The Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation (SCORE) was funded in 2008 to conduct research that would support country schistosomiasis control programs. As schistosomiasis prevalence decreases in many places and elimination is increasingly within reach, a sensitive and specific test to detect infection with Schistosoma mansoni and Schistosoma haematobium has become a pressing need. After obtaining broad input, SCORE supported Leiden University Medical Center (LUMC) to modify the serum-based antigen assay for use with urine, simplify the assay, and improve its sensitivity. The urine assay eventually contributed to several of the larger SCORE studies. For example, in Zanzibar, we demonstrated that urine filtration, the standard parasite egg detection diagnostic test for S. haematobium, greatly underestimated prevalence in low-prevalence settings. In Burundi and Rwanda, the circulating anodic antigen (CAA) assay provided critical information about the limitations of the stool-based Kato-Katz parasite egg-detection assay for S. mansoni in low-prevalence settings. Other SCORE-supported CAA work demonstrated that frozen, banked urine specimens yielded similar results to fresh ones; pooling of specimens may be a useful, cost-effective approach for surveillance in some settings; and the assay can be performed in local laboratories equipped with adequate centrifuge capacity. These improvements in the assay continue to be of use to researchers around the world. However, additional work will be needed if widespread dissemination of the CAA assay is to occur, for example, by building capacity in places besides LUMC and commercialization of the assay. Here, we review the evolution of the CAA assay format during the SCORE period with emphasis on urine-based applications.


Assuntos
Antígenos de Helmintos/imunologia , Glicoproteínas/imunologia , Proteínas de Helminto/imunologia , Schistosoma/imunologia , Esquistossomose/diagnóstico , Animais , Biomarcadores , Burundi/epidemiologia , Criança , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina , Fezes/parasitologia , Feminino , Humanos , Testes Imunológicos , Masculino , Modelos Animais , Papio/parasitologia , Contagem de Ovos de Parasitas , Prevalência , Ruanda/epidemiologia , Santa Lúcia/epidemiologia , Schistosoma/isolamento & purificação , Schistosoma haematobium/imunologia , Schistosoma haematobium/isolamento & purificação , Schistosoma japonicum/imunologia , Schistosoma japonicum/isolamento & purificação , Schistosoma mansoni/imunologia , Schistosoma mansoni/isolamento & purificação , Esquistossomose/epidemiologia , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Tanzânia/epidemiologia , Urina/parasitologia
10.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 103(1_Suppl): 42-49, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32400347

RESUMO

Efforts to control Schistosoma mansoni infection depend on the ability of programs to effectively detect and quantify infection levels and adjust programmatic approaches based on these levels and program goals. One of the three major objectives of the Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation (SCORE) has been to develop and/or evaluate tools that would assist Neglected Tropical Disease program managers in accomplishing this fundamental task. The advent of a widely available point-of-care (POC) assay to detect schistosome circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) in urine with a rapid diagnostic test (the POC-CCA) in 2008 led SCORE and others to conduct multiple evaluations of this assay, comparing it with the Kato-Katz (KK) stool microscopy assay-the standard used for more than 45 years. This article describes multiple SCORE-funded studies comparing the POC-CCA and KK assays, the pros and cons of these assays, the use of the POC-CCA assay for mapping of S. mansoni infections in areas across the spectrum of prevalence levels, and the validation and recognition that the POC-CCA, although not infallible, is a highly useful tool to detect low-intensity infections in low-to-moderate prevalence areas. Such an assay is critical, as control programs succeed in driving down prevalence and intensity and seek to either maintain control or move to elimination of transmission of S. mansoni.


Assuntos
Antígenos de Helmintos/imunologia , Glicoproteínas/imunologia , Proteínas de Helminto/imunologia , Schistosoma mansoni/imunologia , Esquistossomose mansoni/diagnóstico , Animais , Criança , Testes Diagnósticos de Rotina , Fezes/parasitologia , Feminino , Humanos , Testes Imunológicos , Masculino , Sistemas Automatizados de Assistência Junto ao Leito , Prevalência , Esquistossomose mansoni/epidemiologia , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Urina/parasitologia
11.
Am J Trop Med Hyg ; 103(1_Suppl): 105-113, 2020 07.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32400352

RESUMO

The Schistosomiasis Consortium for Operational Research and Evaluation (SCORE) was created to conduct research that could inform programmatic decision-making related to schistosomiasis. SCORE included several large cluster randomized field studies involving mass drug administration (MDA) with praziquantel. The largest of these were studies of gaining or sustaining control of schistosomiasis, which were conducted in five African countries. To enhance relevance for routine practice, the MDA in these studies was coordinated by or closely aligned with national neglected tropical disease (NTD) control programs. The study protocol set minimum targets of at least 90% for coverage among children enrolled in schools and 75% for all school-age children. Over the 4 years of intervention, an estimated 3.5 million treatments were administered to study communities. By year 4, the median village coverage was at or above targets in all studies except that in Mozambique. However, there was often a wide variation behind these summary statistics, and all studies had several villages with very low or high coverage. In studies where coverage was estimated by comparing the number of people treated with the number eligible for treatment, denominator estimation was often problematic. The SCORE experiences in conducting these studies provide lessons for future efforts that attempt to implement strong research designs in real-world contexts. They also have potential applicability to country MDA campaigns against schistosomiasis and other NTDs, most of which are conducted with less logistical and financial support than was available for the SCORE study efforts.


Assuntos
Anti-Helmínticos/uso terapêutico , Administração Massiva de Medicamentos , Esquistossomose/tratamento farmacológico , África , Animais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Moçambique , Doenças Negligenciadas/tratamento farmacológico , Doenças Negligenciadas/prevenção & controle , Praziquantel/uso terapêutico , Prevalência , Saúde Pública , População Rural , Schistosoma , Esquistossomose/prevenção & controle , Instituições Acadêmicas
12.
Parasit Vectors ; 11(1): 111, 2018 02 23.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29475457

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Kato-Katz examination of stool smears is the field-standard method for detecting Schistosoma mansoni infection. However, Kato-Katz misses many active infections, especially of light intensity. Point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) is an alternative field diagnostic that is more sensitive than Kato-Katz when intensity is low, but interpretation of CCA-trace results is unclear. To evaluate trace results, we tested urine and stool specimens from 398 pupils from eight schools in Burundi using four approaches: two in Burundi and two in a laboratory in Leiden, the Netherlands. In Burundi, we used Kato-Katz and point-of-care CCA (CCAB). In Leiden, we repeated the CCA (CCAL) and also used Up-Converting Phosphor Circulating Anodic Antigen (CAA). METHODS: We applied Bayesian latent class analyses (LCA), first considering CCA traces as negative and then as positive. We used the LCA output to estimate validity of the prevalence estimates of each test in comparison to the population-level infection prevalence and estimated the proportion of trace results that were likely true positives. RESULTS: Kato-Katz yielded the lowest prevalence (6.8%), and CCAB with trace considered positive yielded the highest (53.5%). There were many more trace results recorded by CCA in Burundi (32.4%) than in Leiden (2.3%). Estimated prevalence with CAA was 46.5%. LCA indicated that Kato-Katz had the lowest sensitivity: 15.9% [Bayesian Credible Interval (BCI): 9.2-23.5%] with CCA-trace considered negative and 15.0% with trace as positive (BCI: 9.6-21.4%), implying that Kato-Katz missed approximately 85% of infections. CCAB underestimated disease prevalence when trace was considered negative and overestimated disease prevalence when trace was considered positive, by approximately 12 percentage points each way, and CAA overestimated prevalence in both models. Our results suggest that approximately 52.2% (BCI: 37.8-5.8%) of the CCAB trace readings were true infections. CONCLUSIONS: Whether measured in the laboratory or the field, CCA outperformed Kato-Katz at the low infection intensities in Burundi. CCA with trace as negative likely missed many infections, whereas CCA with trace as positive overestimated prevalence. In the absence of a field-friendly gold standard diagnostic, the use of a variety of diagnostics with differing properties will become increasingly important as programs move towards elimination of schistosomiasis. It is clear that CCA is a valuable tool for the detection and mapping of S. mansoni infection in the field and CAA may be a valuable field tool in the future.


Assuntos
Antígenos de Helmintos/imunologia , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico/métodos , Glicoproteínas/imunologia , Proteínas de Helminto/imunologia , Sistemas Automatizados de Assistência Junto ao Leito , Esquistossomose mansoni/diagnóstico , Esquistossomose mansoni/epidemiologia , Animais , Teorema de Bayes , Burundi/epidemiologia , Criança , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico/instrumentação , Técnicas de Laboratório Clínico/estatística & dados numéricos , Fezes/parasitologia , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Prevalência , Schistosoma mansoni/imunologia , Esquistossomose mansoni/parasitologia , Esquistossomose mansoni/urina , Instituições Acadêmicas , Sensibilidade e Especificidade
13.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis ; 11(12): e0006102, 2017 Dec.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29220354

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The development of new diagnostics is an important tool in the fight against disease. Latent Class Analysis (LCA) is used to estimate the sensitivity and specificity of tests in the absence of a gold standard. The main field diagnostic for Schistosoma mansoni infection, Kato-Katz (KK), is not very sensitive at low infection intensities. A point-of-care circulating cathodic antigen (CCA) test has been shown to be more sensitive than KK. However, CCA can return an ambiguous 'trace' result between 'positive' and 'negative', and much debate has focused on interpretation of traces results. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: We show how LCA can be extended to include ambiguous trace results and analyse S. mansoni studies from both Côte d'Ivoire (CdI) and Uganda. We compare the diagnostic performance of KK and CCA and the observed results by each test to the estimated infection prevalence in the population. Prevalence by KK was higher in CdI (13.4%) than in Uganda (6.1%), but prevalence by CCA was similar between countries, both when trace was assumed to be negative (CCAtn: 11.7% in CdI and 9.7% in Uganda) and positive (CCAtp: 20.1% in CdI and 22.5% in Uganda). The estimated sensitivity of CCA was more consistent between countries than the estimated sensitivity of KK, and estimated infection prevalence did not significantly differ between CdI (20.5%) and Uganda (19.1%). The prevalence by CCA with trace as positive did not differ significantly from estimates of infection prevalence in either country, whereas both KK and CCA with trace as negative significantly underestimated infection prevalence in both countries. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporation of ambiguous results into an LCA enables the effect of different treatment thresholds to be directly assessed and is applicable in many fields. Our results showed that CCA with trace as positive most accurately estimated infection prevalence.


Assuntos
Antígenos de Helmintos/análise , Sistemas Automatizados de Assistência Junto ao Leito , Schistosoma mansoni/isolamento & purificação , Esquistossomose mansoni/diagnóstico , Animais , Antígenos de Helmintos/urina , Criança , Côte d'Ivoire/epidemiologia , Fezes/parasitologia , Humanos , Kit de Reagentes para Diagnóstico , Padrões de Referência , Schistosoma mansoni/imunologia , Esquistossomose mansoni/epidemiologia , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Uganda/epidemiologia
14.
Evolution ; 65(3): 788-801, 2011 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21044060

RESUMO

In a seasonal environment, there are multiple aspects of timing, or phenology, that contribute to an individual's fitness. Several studies have shown a genetic basis to variation between individuals in breeding time, but we know little about the heritability of other phenological traits in wild populations. Furthermore, the presence of genetic correlations between phenological variables could act to constrain or promote any response to selection, but less is known of the multivariate genetic relationships underlying phenological traits in the wild. Here, we use data from a wild population of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland, to investigate covariances between eight phenological traits. Variation was characterized at the level of the phenotype, genotype, and year, and traits measured in different sexes enabled us to test for cross-sex genetic correlations. Phenotypic correlations were broadly strong and positive, as were correlations between traits expressed in the same year. We found evidence of significant additive genetic variation in five of the eight phenological traits studied. However there was little evidence of genetic correlations between traits, implying that much of the observed phenotypic correlation was environmentally induced. Our results suggest that different phenological traits may be free to move along independent evolutionary trajectories.


Assuntos
Cervos/anatomia & histologia , Cervos/genética , Variação Genética , Animais , Evolução Biológica , Cervos/fisiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Fenótipo , Escócia
15.
Oecologia ; 164(2): 357-68, 2010 Oct.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20480184

RESUMO

There has been growing interest in the determinants of the annual timing of biological phenomena, or phenology, in wild populations, but research on vertebrate taxa has primarily focused on the phenology of reproduction. We present here analyses of the phenology of the annual growth of a secondary sexual characteristic, antlers in red deer (Cervus elaphus) males. The long-term individual-based data from a wild population of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland allow us to consider ecological factors influencing variation in the phenology of growth of antlers, and the implications of variation in antler growth phenology with respect to the phenotype of antler grown (antler mass) and annual breeding success. The phenology of antler growth was influenced by local environmental conditions: higher population density delayed both the start date (during spring) and the relative end date (in late summer) of antler growth, and warmer temperatures in the September and April prior to growth advanced start and end dates, respectively. Furthermore, there was variation between individuals in this phenotypic plasticity of start date, although not in that of end date of growth. The phenology of antler growth impacted on the morphology of antlers grown, with individuals who started and ended growth earliest having the heaviest antlers. The timing of antler growth phenology was associated with breeding success in the following mating season, independently of the mass of antlers grown: an earlier start of antler growth was associated with siring a higher number of the calves born the following spring. Our results suggest that the phenology of traits that are not directly correlated with offspring survival may also regularly show correlations with fitness.


Assuntos
Chifres de Veado/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Cervos/crescimento & desenvolvimento , Preferência de Acasalamento Animal , Fatores Etários , Animais , Chifres de Veado/anatomia & histologia , Tamanho Corporal , Cruzamento , Cervos/anatomia & histologia , Cervos/fisiologia , Feminino , Masculino , Fenótipo , Densidade Demográfica , Estações do Ano , Fatores de Tempo , Tempo (Meteorologia)
16.
J Anim Ecol ; 79(1): 13-26, 2010 Jan.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-20409158

RESUMO

1. Efforts to understand the links between evolutionary and ecological dynamics hinge on our ability to measure and understand how genes influence phenotypes, fitness and population dynamics. Quantitative genetics provides a range of theoretical and empirical tools with which to achieve this when the relatedness between individuals within a population is known. 2. A number of recent studies have used a type of mixed-effects model, known as the animal model, to estimate the genetic component of phenotypic variation using data collected in the field. Here, we provide a practical guide for ecologists interested in exploring the potential to apply this quantitative genetic method in their research. 3. We begin by outlining, in simple terms, key concepts in quantitative genetics and how an animal model estimates relevant quantitative genetic parameters, such as heritabilities or genetic correlations. 4. We then provide three detailed example tutorials, for implementation in a variety of software packages, for some basic applications of the animal model. We discuss several important statistical issues relating to best practice when fitting different kinds of mixed models. 5. We conclude by briefly summarizing more complex applications of the animal model, and by highlighting key pitfalls and dangers for the researcher wanting to begin using quantitative genetic tools to address ecological and evolutionary questions.


Assuntos
Evolução Biológica , Ecossistema , Modelos Genéticos , Modelos Estatísticos , Animais , Projetos de Pesquisa , Seleção Genética
17.
Am Nat ; 174(3): 342-57, 2009 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-19653847

RESUMO

In polygynous species, adult mortality is generally higher in males than in females, and theory predicts that this should result in the evolution of faster rates of senescence in males. Detailed investigations of sex differences in patterns of aging across the many and varied phenotypic characteristics associated with successful reproduction in wild populations of polygynous vertebrates are currently lacking. Here, we use longitudinal data collected from a wild red deer population to compare aging patterns across a range of life-history, behavioral, and morphological traits in both sexes. While males showed more rapid age-related declines in annual breeding success than did females, there was evidence of variation in aging rates among traits within each sex. Traits associated with male breeding performance showed a rapid decline in old age, whereas the morphology and phenology of antlers, a key male secondary sexual characteristic, showed minimal senescence. Female reproductive traits associated with regulation of estrus and gestation showed delayed senescence relative to traits associated with investment in offspring growth during gestation and lactation. Our results suggest that either natural selection or physiological constraint has caused an uncoupling of senescence rates in different physiological systems and, thus, different reproductive traits in this wild vertebrate population.


Assuntos
Envelhecimento/fisiologia , Cervos/fisiologia , Reprodução , Caracteres Sexuais , Animais , Comportamento Animal , Cervos/anatomia & histologia , Feminino , Masculino , Dinâmica Populacional
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