Predictive Neural Network Modeling for Almond Harvest Dust Control.

This study introduces a neural network-based approach to predict dust emissions, specifically PM2.5 particles, during almond harvesting in California. Using a feedforward neural network (FNN), this research predicted PM2.5 emissions by analyzing key operational parameters of an advanced almond harvester. Preprocessing steps like outlier removal and normalization were employed to refine the dataset for training. The network's architecture was designed with two hidden layers and optimized using tanh activation and MSE loss functions through the Adam algorithm, striking a balance between model complexity and predictive accuracy. The model was trained on extensive field data from an almond pickup system, including variables like brush speed, angular velocity, and harvester forward speed. The results demonstrate a notable predictive accuracy of the FNN model, with a mean squared error (MSE) of 0.02 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.01, indicating high precision in forecasting PM2.5 levels. By integrating machine learning with agricultural practices, this research provides a significant tool for environmental management in almond production, offering a method to reduce harmful emissions while maintaining operational efficiency. This model presents a solution for the almond industry and sets a precedent for applying predictive analytics in sustainable agriculture.

Reimagine fire science for the anthropocene.

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the "firehose" of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

Satellite-Based Assessment of Grassland Conversion and Related Fire Disturbance in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska.

Spruce beetle-induced (Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby)) mortality on the Kenai Peninsula has heightened local wildfire risk as canopy loss facilitates the conversion from bare to fire-prone grassland. We collected images from NASA satellite-based Earth observations to visualize land cover succession at roughly five-year intervals following a severe, mid-1990's beetle infestation to the present. We classified these data by vegetation cover type to quantify grassland encroachment patterns over time. Raster band math provided a change detection analysis on the land cover classifications. Results indicate the highest wildfire risk is linked to herbaceous and black spruce land cover types, The resulting land cover change image will give the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge (KENWR) ecologists a better understanding of where forests have converted to grassland since the 1990s. These classifications provided a foundation for us to integrate digital elevation models (DEMs), temperature, and historical fire data into a model using Python for assessing and mapping changes in wildfire risk. Spatial representations of this risk will contribute to a better understanding of ecological trajectories of beetle-affected landscapes, thereby informing management decisions at KENWR.

Wind Tunnel Experiments to Study Chaparral Crown Fires.

The present protocol presents a laboratory technique designed to study chaparral crown fire ignition and spread. Experiments were conducted in a low velocity fire wind tunnel where two distinct layers of fuel were constructed to represent surface and crown fuels in chaparral. Chamise, a common chaparral shrub, comprised the live crown layer. The dead fuel surface layer was constructed with excelsior (shredded wood). We developed a methodology to measure mass loss, temperature, and flame height for both fuel layers. Thermocouples placed in each layer estimated temperature. A video camera captured the visible flame. Post-processing of digital imagery yielded flame characteristics including height and flame tilt. A custom crown mass loss instrument developed in-house measured the evolution of the mass of the crown layer during the burn. Mass loss and temperature trends obtained using the technique matched theory and other empirical studies. In this study, we present detailed experimental procedures and information about the instrumentation used. The representative results for the fuel mass loss rate and temperature filed within the fuel bed are also included and discussed.