Climatic change drives dynamic source-sink relationships in marine species with high dispersal potential.

While there is now strong evidence that many factors can shape dispersal, the mechanisms influencing connectivity patterns are species-specific and remain largely unknown for many species with a high dispersal potential. The rock lobsters Jasus tristani and Jasus paulensis have a long pelagic larval duration (up to 20 months) and inhabit seamounts and islands in the southern Atlantic and Indian Oceans, respectively. We used a multidisciplinary approach to assess the genetic relationships between J. tristani and J. paulensis, investigate historic and contemporary gene flow, and inform fisheries management. Using 17,256 neutral single nucleotide polymorphisms we found low but significant genetic differentiation. We show that patterns of connectivity changed over time in accordance with climatic fluctuations. Historic migration estimates showed stronger connectivity from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean (influenced by the Agulhas Leakage). In contrast, the individual-based model coupled with contemporary migration estimates inferred from genetic data showed stronger inter-ocean connectivity in the opposite direction from the Atlantic to the Indian Ocean driven by the Subtropical Front. We suggest that the J. tristani and J. paulensis historical distribution might have extended further north (when water temperatures were lower) resulting in larval dispersal between the ocean basis being more influenced by the Agulhas Leakage than the Subtropical Front. As water temperatures in the region increase in accordance with anthropogenic climate change, a southern shift in the distribution range of J. tristani and J. paulensis could further reduce larval transport from the Indian to the Atlantic Ocean, adding complexity to fisheries management.

Global drivers of recent diversification in a marine species complex.

Investigating historical gene flow in species complexes can indicate how environmental and reproductive barriers shape genome divergence during speciation. The processes influencing species diversification under environmental change remain one of the central focal points of evolutionary biology, particularly for marine organisms with high dispersal potential. We investigated genome-wide divergence, introgression patterns and inferred demographic history between species pairs of all six extant rock lobster species (Jasus spp.), which have a long larval duration of up to two years and have populated continental shelf and seamount habitats around the globe at approximately 40o S. Genetic differentiation patterns reflected geographic isolation and the environment (i.e. habitat structure). Eastern Pacific species (J. caveorum and J. frontalis) were geographically more distant and genetically more differentiated from the remaining four species. Species associated with continental shelf habitats shared a common ancestry, but are geographically distant from one another. Similarly, species associated with island/seamount habitats in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans shared a common ancestry, but are also geographically distant. Benthic temperature was the environmental variable that explained most of the genetic differentiation (FST ), while controlling for the effects of geographic distance. Eastern Pacific species retained a signal of strict isolation following ancient migration, whereas species pairs from Australia and Africa, and seamounts in the Indian and Atlantic oceans, included events of introgression after secondary contact. Our results reveal important effects of habitat and demographic processes on the recent divergence of species within the genus Jasus, providing one of the first empirical studies of genome-wide drivers of diversification that incorporates all extant species in a marine genus with long pelagic larval duration.

Defining ecologically relevant scales for spatial protection with long-term data on an endangered seabird and local prey availability.

Human activities are important drivers of marine ecosystem functioning. However, separating the synergistic effects of fishing and environmental variability on the prey base of nontarget predators is difficult, often because prey availability estimates on appropriate scales are lacking. Understanding how prey abundance at different spatial scales links to population change can help integrate the needs of nontarget predators into fisheries management by defining ecologically relevant areas for spatial protection. We investigated the local population response (number of breeders) of the Bank Cormorant (Phalacrocorax neglectus), a range-restricted endangered seabird, to the availability of its prey, the heavily fished west coast rock lobster (Jasus lalandii). Using Bayesian state-space modeled cormorant counts at 3 colonies, 22 years of fisheries-independent data on local lobster abundance, and generalized additive modeling, we determined the spatial scale pertinent to these relationships in areas with different lobster availability. Cormorant numbers responded positively to lobster availability in the regions with intermediate and high abundance but not where regime shifts and fishing pressure had depleted lobster stocks. The relationships were strongest when lobsters 20-30 km offshore of the colony were considered, a distance greater than the Bank Cormorant's foraging range when breeding, and may have been influenced by prey availability for nonbreeding birds, prey switching, or prey ecology. Our results highlight the importance of considering the scale of ecological relationships in marine spatial planning and suggest that designing spatial protection around focal species can benefit marine predators across their full life cycle. We propose the precautionary implementation of small-scale marine protected areas, followed by robust assessment and adaptive-management, to confirm population-level benefits for the cormorants, their prey, and the wider ecosystem, without negative impacts on local fisheries.