In COVID-19 Health Messaging, Loss Framing Increases Anxiety with Little-to-No Concomitant Benefits: Experimental Evidence from 84 Countries.

The COVID-19 pandemic (and its aftermath) highlights a critical need to communicate health information effectively to the global public. Given that subtle differences in information framing can have meaningful effects on behavior, behavioral science research highlights a pressing question: Is it more effective to frame COVID-19 health messages in terms of potential losses (e.g., "If you do not practice these steps, you can endanger yourself and others") or potential gains (e.g., "If you practice these steps, you can protect yourself and others")? Collecting data in 48 languages from 15,929 participants in 84 countries, we experimentally tested the effects of message framing on COVID-19-related judgments, intentions, and feelings. Loss- (vs. gain-) framed messages increased self-reported anxiety among participants cross-nationally with little-to-no impact on policy attitudes, behavioral intentions, or information seeking relevant to pandemic risks. These results were consistent across 84 countries, three variations of the message framing wording, and 560 data processing and analytic choices. Thus, results provide an empirical answer to a global communication question and highlight the emotional toll of loss-framed messages. Critically, this work demonstrates the importance of considering unintended affective consequences when evaluating nudge-style interventions.

Working Memory Load Selectively Influences Response Inhibition in a Stop Signal Task.

Inhibitory control is a key executive function and has been studied extensively using the stop signal task. By applying a simple race model that posits an independent race between a GO process responsible for initiation of responses and a STOP process responsible for inhibition of responses, one can estimate how long it takes an individual to inhibit an ongoing response, the stop signal reaction time. Here, we examined how stop signal reaction time can be affected by working memory. Participants engaged in a dual task; they completed a stop signal task under low and high working memory load conditions. Working memory capacity was also measured. We found that the STOP process was lengthened in the high, compared to the low, working memory load condition, as evidenced by differences in stop signal reaction time. The GO process was unaffected and working memory capacity could not account for differences across the load conditions. These results indicate that inhibitory control can be influenced by placing demands on working memory.

Multiple Dimensions of Childhood Abuse and Neglect Prospectively Predict Poorer Adult Romantic Functioning.

The present study used data from the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation (MLSRA) to investigate how multiple dimensions of childhood abuse and neglect predict romantic relationship functioning in adulthood. Several dimensions of abuse and neglect (any experience, type, chronicity, co-occurrence, and perpetrator) were rated prospectively from birth through age 17.5 years. Multimethod assessments of relational competence and violence in romantic relationships were conducted repeatedly from ages 20 to 32 years. As expected, experiencing childhood abuse and neglect was associated with lower romantic competence and more relational violence in adulthood. Follow-up analyses indicated that lower romantic competence was specifically associated with physical abuse, maternal perpetration, chronicity, and co-occurrence, whereas more relational violence was uniquely associated with nonparental perpetration. We discuss these novel prospective findings in the context of theory and research on antecedents of romantic relationship functioning.

The social cost of methane: theory and applications.

Methane emissions contribute to global warming, damage public health and reduce the yield of agricultural and forest ecosystems. Quantifying these damages to the planetary commons by calculating the social cost of methane (SCM) facilitates more comprehensive cost-benefit analyses of methane emissions control measures and is the first step to potentially incorporating them into the marketplace. Use of a broad measure of social welfare is also an attractive alternative or supplement to emission metrics focused on a temperature target in a given year as it incentivizes action to provide benefits over a broader range of impacts and timescales. Calculating the SCM using consistent temporal treatment of physical and economic processes and incorporating climate- and air quality-related impacts, we find large SCM values, e.g. ∼$2400 per ton and ∼$3600 per ton with 5% and 3% discount rates respectively. These values are ∼100 and 50 times greater than corresponding social costs for carbon dioxide. Our results suggest that ∼110 of 140 Mt of identified methane abatement via scaling up existing technology and policy options provide societal benefits that outweigh implementation costs. Within the energy sector, renewables compare far better against use of natural gas in electricity generation when incorporating these social costs for methane. In the agricultural sector, changes in livestock management practices, promoting healthy diets including reduced beef and dairy consumption, and reductions in food waste have been promoted as ways to mitigate emissions, and these are shown here to indeed have the potential to provide large societal benefits (∼$50-150 billion per year). Examining recent trends in methane and carbon dioxide, we find that increases in methane emissions may have offset much of the societal benefits from a slowdown in the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions. The results indicate that efforts to reduce methane emissions via policies spanning a wide range of technical, regulatory and behavioural options provide benefits at little or negative net cost. Recognition of the full SCM, which has typically been undervalued, may help catalyze actions to reduce emissions and thereby provide a broad set of societal benefits.

Observational determination of surface radiative forcing by CO2 from 2000 to 2010.

The climatic impact of CO2 and other greenhouse gases is usually quantified in terms of radiative forcing, calculated as the difference between estimates of the Earth's radiation field from pre-industrial and present-day concentrations of these gases. Radiative transfer models calculate that the increase in CO2 since 1750 corresponds to a global annual-mean radiative forcing at the tropopause of 1.82 ± 0.19 W m(-2) (ref. 2). However, despite widespread scientific discussion and modelling of the climate impacts of well-mixed greenhouse gases, there is little direct observational evidence of the radiative impact of increasing atmospheric CO2. Here we present observationally based evidence of clear-sky CO2 surface radiative forcing that is directly attributable to the increase, between 2000 and 2010, of 22 parts per million atmospheric CO2. The time series of this forcing at the two locations-the Southern Great Plains and the North Slope of Alaska-are derived from Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer spectra together with ancillary measurements and thoroughly corroborated radiative transfer calculations. The time series both show statistically significant trends of 0.2 W m(-2) per decade (with respective uncertainties of ±0.06 W m(-2) per decade and ±0.07 W m(-2) per decade) and have seasonal ranges of 0.1-0.2 W m(-2). This is approximately ten per cent of the trend in downwelling longwave radiation. These results confirm theoretical predictions of the atmospheric greenhouse effect due to anthropogenic emissions, and provide empirical evidence of how rising CO2 levels, mediated by temporal variations due to photosynthesis and respiration, are affecting the surface energy balance.

Greater maternal insensitivity in childhood predicts greater electrodermal reactivity during conflict discussions with romantic partners in adulthood.

In this study, we drew on prospective, longitudinal data to investigate the long-term predictive significance of the quality of early parent-child relationship experiences for adults' sympathetic nervous system (SNS) activity during conflict discussions with their romantic partners. Maternal sensitivity was repeatedly assessed across childhood via direct observations of mother-child interactions. When the children in the study became adults (34-37 years old), electrodermal activity-an index of SNS arousal and a psychophysiological marker of behavioral inhibition-was recorded for 37 participants while at rest and while they attempted to resolve conflicts in their romantic relationships. Individuals who had experienced less sensitive maternal caregiving during childhood had greater increases in electrodermal activity during conflict discussions with their adult partners, relative to resting conditions. This longitudinal association was not accounted for by observed or self-reported romantic-relationship quality, gender, ethnicity, or early socioeconomic factors.

The interpersonal antecedents of supportive parenting: a prospective, longitudinal study from infancy to adulthood.

This study drew on prospective, longitudinal data to test the hypothesis that the intergenerational transmission of positive parenting is mediated by competence in subsequent relationships with peers and romantic partners. Interview-based ratings of supportive parenting were completed with a sample of 113 individuals (46% male) followed from birth to age 32. Results indicated that supportive parenting during adulthood was predicted by observed maternal sensitivity during the first 3 years of life, even after controlling for adults' age at first childbirth and adults' socioeconomic status and educational attainment at the time of the second generation parenting assessments. Moreover, the intergenerational association in parenting was mediated by later competence in relationships with peers and romantic partners. In particular, sensitive caregiving in infancy and early childhood predicted teachers' rankings of children's social competence with peers during childhood and adolescence, which in turn forecasted later interview ratings of romantic relationship competence during young adulthood, which in turn predicted supportive parenting in adulthood. Findings are discussed with respect to current theory and research on the intergenerational transmission of parenting.

Innovations in communication technologies for measles supplemental immunization activities: lessons from Kenya measles vaccination campaign, November 2012.

BACKGROUND: To achieve a measles free world, effective communication must be part of all elimination plans. The choice of communication approaches must be evidence based, locally appropriate, interactive and community owned. In this article, we document the innovative approach of using house visits supported by a web-enabled mobile phone application to create a real-time platform for adaptive management of supplemental measles immunization days in Kenya. METHODS: One thousand nine hundred and fifty-two Red Cross volunteers were recruited, trained and deployed to conduct house-to-house canvassing in 11 urban districts of Kenya. Three days before the campaigns, volunteers conducted house visits with a uniform approach and package of messages. All house visits were documented using a web-enabled mobile phone application (episurveyor®) that in real-time relayed information collected to all campaign management levels. During the campaigns, volunteers reported daily immunizations to their co-ordinators. Post-campaign house visits were also conducted within 4 days, to verify immunization of eligible children, assess information sources and detect adverse events following immunization. RESULTS: Fifty-six per cent of the 164 643 households visited said that they had heard about the planned 2012 measles vaccination campaign 1-3 days before start dates. Twenty-five per cent of households were likely to miss the measles supplemental dose if they had not been reassured by the house visit. Pre- and post-campaign reasons for refusal showed that targeted communication reduced misconceptions, fear of injections and trust in herbal remedies. Daily reporting of immunizations using mobile phones informed changes in service delivery plans for better immunization coverage. House visits were more remembered (70%) as sources of information compared with traditional mass awareness channels like megaphones (41%) and radio (37%). CONCLUSIONS: In high-density settlements, house-to-house visits are easy and more penetrative compared with traditional media approaches. Using mobile phones to document campaign processes and outputs provides real time evidence for service delivery planning to improve immunization coverage.

Temporal profile of lymphocyte counts and relationship with infections with fingolimod therapy.

BACKGROUND: Reduction in peripheral blood lymphocytes is an expected pharmacodynamic outcome of fingolimod therapy. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this article is to evaluate lymphocyte dynamics during and after fingolimod therapy and assess the relationship between lymphocyte counts and infections. METHODS: Lymphocyte counts and their relationship with infections were evaluated in three multiple sclerosis (MS) populations: (Group A) FREEDOMS phase 3 core study group (n = 1272); (Group B) All Studies group (one phase 2 and two phase 3 studies, plus their extensions; n = 2315); and (Group C) Follow-up group (after fingolimod discontinuation; n = 538). RESULTS: Administration of fingolimod 0.5 mg led to reductions in lymphocyte counts to a steady-state of 24%-30% of baseline values within two weeks, which remained stable while on therapy. Following fingolimod discontinuation, average counts exceeded the lower limit of normal range within six to eight weeks, and were 80% of baseline values by three months. In Group A, infection rates per patient-year were 1.4 with placebo and 1.0 in fingolimod-treated patients who had the lowest lymphocyte counts (< 0.2 × 10(9)/l). No evidence was seen for an increase in serious or opportunistic infections. CONCLUSIONS: Fingolimod induces a rapid and reversible reduction in lymphocyte counts without an increase in infections relative to placebo. Because fingolimod reduces blood lymphocyte counts via redistribution in secondary lymphoid organs, peripheral blood lymphocyte counts cannot be utilized to evaluate the lymphocyte subset status of a patient.

The distinctive role of romantic relationships in moderating the effects of early caregiving on adult anxious-depressed symptoms over 9 years.

This study tests a model of young adult romantic quality as a moderator of the effects of early caregiving on anxious-depressed symptoms over a 9-year period in adulthood. Participants (n = 93) were a subsample from a longitudinal study of risk and adaptation. Quality of early caregiving was measured using observational data collected at five points in the first 4 years of life. Young adult romantic relationship quality was assessed from interviews with participants at age 23. Self-report anxious-depressed symptoms were measured at ages 23, 26, and 32. The results indicated that romantic quality moderated early caregiving to predict symptom levels across this period, with evidence for inoculation, amplification, and compensation effects. A discriminant analysis examining young adult work competence as a moderator provided further evidence for the distinctiveness of romantic relationships in changing the association between early caregiving and adult internalizing symptoms.

Genetic contributions to continuity and change in attachment security: a prospective, longitudinal investigation from infancy to young adulthood.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal research has demonstrated that individual differences in attachment security show only modest continuity from infancy to adulthood. Recent findings based on retrospective reports suggest that individuals' genetic variation may moderate the developmental associations between early attachment-relevant relationship experiences and adult attachment security. The purpose of this study was to use a prospective, longitudinal design to investigate genetic contributions to continuity and changes in attachment security from infancy to young adulthood in a higher risk sample. METHODS: Infant attachment security was assessed using the Strange Situation Procedure at 12 and 18 months. Adults' general attachment representations were assessed using the Adult Attachment Interview at ages 19 and 26. Romantic attachment representations were assessed with the Current Relationship Interview (CRI) at ages 20-21 and ages 26-28. Individuals were genotyped for variants within the oxytocin receptor (OXTR), dopamine D4 receptor (DRD4), and serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). RESULTS: The continuity of attachment security from infancy into young adulthood was consistently moderated by OXTR genetic variation. Infant attachment security predicted the security of adults' general and romantic attachment representations only for individuals with the OXTR G/G genotype. This interaction was significant when predicting adult attachment security as measured by the Adult Attachment Interview at ages 19 and 26 and the CRI at ages 26-28. Dopamine D4 receptor and 5-HTTLPR genetic variation did not consistently moderate the longitudinal associations between attachment security during infancy and adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides initial longitudinal evidence for genetic contributions to continuity and change in attachment security from infancy to young adulthood. Genetic variation related to the oxytocin system may moderate the stability of attachment security across development.

Examining HPV threat-to-efficacy ratios in the Extended Parallel Process Model.

The Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) posits that an effective fear appeal includes both threat and efficacy components; however, research has not addressed whether there is an optimal threat-to-efficacy ratio. It is possible that varying levels of threat and efficacy in a persuasive message could yield different effects on attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors. In a laboratory experiment, women (n = 442) were exposed to human papilloma virus (HPV) prevention messages containing one of six threat-to-efficacy ratios and one of two message frames (messages emphasizing the connection between HPV and cervical cancer or HPV and genital warts). Multiple mediation analysis revealed that a 1-to-1 ratio of threat to efficacy was most effective at increasing prevention intentions, primarily because it caused more fear and risk susceptibility than other message ratios. Response efficacy significantly mediated the relationship between message framing and intentions, such that participants exposed to a genital warts message reported significantly higher intentions, and this association can be explained in part through response efficacy. Implications for future theoretical research as well as campaigns and intervention research are discussed.

Predicting adult physical illness from infant attachment: a prospective longitudinal study.

OBJECTIVE: Recent epidemiological and longitudinal studies indicate that attachment relationships may be a significant predictor of physical health in adulthood. This study is among the few to prospectively link attachment classifications assessed in infancy to physical health outcomes 30 years later in adulthood, controlling for various health-related confounds. METHODS: Participants were 163 individuals involved in a 32-year longitudinal study of risk and adaptation who have been followed since birth. Attachment classifications were assessed at ages 12 and 18 months using the Ainsworth Strange Situation Procedure. Stability of attachment security was derived from these assessments. At age 32, participants completed a questionnaire asking about the presence of or treatment for current physical illnesses. RESULTS: Binary logistic regression analyses controlling for health-related confounds at age 32 indicated that individuals who were insecurely attached (i.e., anxious-resistant or anxious-avoidant) during infancy were more likely to report an inflammation-based illness in adulthood than those classified as securely attached during infancy. There also was a trend whereby individuals classified as anxious-resistant reported more nonspecific symptoms in adulthood than those classified as either anxious-avoidant or secure. Individuals who were continuously insecure during infancy were more likely to report all types of physical illness in adulthood. CONCLUSION: These findings reveal the lasting effect of early interpersonal relationships on physical health and suggests that infancy may be a fruitful point for prevention efforts. The widespread influence that attachment has on endogenous and exogenous health-related processes may make it particularly potent in the prevention of later physical health problems.

Shared and distinctive origins and correlates of adult attachment representations: the developmental organization of romantic functioning.

To test proposals regarding the hierarchical organization of adult attachment, this study examined developmental origins of generalized and romantic attachment representations and their concurrent associations with romantic functioning. Participants (N=112) in a 35-year prospective study completed the Adult Attachment Interview (AAI) and Current Relationship Interview (CRI). Two-way analysis of variance tested interactive associations of AAI and CRI security with infant attachment, early parenting quality, preschool ego resiliency, adolescent friendship quality, and adult romantic functioning. Both representations were associated with earlier parenting and core attachment-related romantic behavior, but romantic representations had distinctive links to ego resiliency and relationship-specific romantic behaviors. Attachment representations were independent and did not interactively predict romantic functioning, suggesting that they confer somewhat distinctive benefits for romantic functioning.

Evolution, stress, and sensitive periods: the influence of unpredictability in early versus late childhood on sex and risky behavior.

According to a recent evolutionary life history model of development proposed by Ellis, Figueredo, Brumbach, and Schlomer (2009), growing up in harsh versus unpredictable environments should have unique effects on life history strategies in adulthood. Using data from the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation, we tested how harshness and unpredictability experienced in early childhood (age 0-5) versus in later childhood (age 6-16) uniquely predicted sexual and risky behavior at age 23. Findings showed that the strongest predictor of both sexual and risky behavior was an unpredictable environment between ages 0 and 5. Individuals exposed to more unpredictable, rapidly changing environments during the first 5 years of life displayed a faster life history strategy at age 23 by having more sexual partners, engaging in more aggressive and delinquent behaviors, and being more likely to be associated with criminal activities. In contrast, exposure to either harsh environments or experiencing unpredictability in later childhood (age 6-16) was, for the most part, not significantly related to these outcomes at age 23. Viewed together, these findings show that unpredictable rather than merely harsh childhood environments exert unique effects on risky behavior later in life consistent with a faster life history strategy. The findings also suggest that there is a developmentally sensitive period for assessing environmental unpredictability during the first 5 years of life.

Population-based incidence of typhoid fever in an urban informal settlement and a rural area in Kenya: implications for typhoid vaccine use in Africa.

BACKGROUND: High rates of typhoid fever in children in urban settings in Asia have led to focus on childhood immunization in Asian cities, but not in Africa, where data, mostly from rural areas, have shown low disease incidence. We set out to compare incidence of typhoid fever in a densely populated urban slum and a rural community in Kenya, hypothesizing higher rates in the urban area, given crowding and suboptimal access to safe water, sanitation and hygiene. METHODS: During 2007-9, we conducted population-based surveillance in Kibera, an urban informal settlement in Nairobi, and in Lwak, a rural area in western Kenya. Participants had free access to study clinics; field workers visited their homes biweekly to collect information about acute illnesses. In clinic, blood cultures were processed from patients with fever or pneumonia. Crude and adjusted incidence rates were calculated. RESULTS: In the urban site, the overall crude incidence of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) bacteremia was 247 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation (pyo) with highest rates in children 5-9 years old (596 per 100,000 pyo) and 2-4 years old (521 per 100,000 pyo). Crude overall incidence in Lwak was 29 cases per 100,000 pyo with low rates in children 2-4 and 5-9 years old (28 and 18 cases per 100,000 pyo, respectively). Adjusted incidence rates were highest in 2-4 year old urban children (2,243 per 100,000 pyo) which were >15-fold higher than rates in the rural site for the same age group. Nearly 75% of S. Typhi isolates were multi-drug resistant. CONCLUSIONS: This systematic urban slum and rural comparison showed dramatically higher typhoid incidence among urban children <10 years old with rates similar to those from Asian urban slums. The findings have potential policy implications for use of typhoid vaccines in increasingly urban Africa.

Developmental and dyadic perspectives on commitment in adult romantic relationships.

We tested hypotheses concerning the developmental roots of becoming the "weak-link" (less committed) partner in adult romantic relationships and the associations between partners' absolute and relative levels of commitment and dyadic outcomes. We examined 78 target 20- to 21-year-olds who were involved in a romantic relationship and who had been studied since birth. As predicted, people who received lower-quality support from caregivers in toddlerhood or who were less able to resolve conflicts with a best friend in midadolescence were more likely to become the weak-link partner in a romantic relationship at age 20 to 21. Furthermore, lower commitment on the part of the weak-link partner coupled with greater discrepancy in commitment between partners predicted a greater likelihood that the couple would display hostility (rated by observers) during a videotaped conflict-resolution task when they were 20 to 21 years old. These findings are discussed from developmental and dyadic perspectives.

Recovering from conflict in romantic relationships: a developmental perspective.

This study adopted a developmental perspective on recovery from conflict in romantic relationships. Participants were 73 young adults (target participants), studied since birth, and their romantic partners. A novel observational coding scheme was used to evaluate each participant's degree of conflict recovery, operationalized as the extent to which the participant disengaged from conflict during a 4-min "cool-down" task immediately following a 10-min conflict discussion. Conflict recovery was systematically associated with developmental and dyadic processes. Targets who were rated as securely attached more times in infancy recovered from conflict better, as did their romantic partners. Concurrently, having a romantic partner who displayed better recovery predicted more positive relationship emotions and greater relationship satisfaction. Prospectively, target participants' early attachment security and their partners' degree of conflict recovery interacted to predict relationship stability 2 years later, such that having a partner who recovered from conflict better buffered targets with insecure histories.

Early Roots of Adult Competence: The Significance of Close Relationships from Infancy to Early Adulthood.

Social capital has traditionally been defined in terms of the amount of resources that one derives as a result of a diversity of interpersonal relationships. However, the quality of these relationships across development has not been examined as a contributor to social capital and few studies have examined the significance of various age-salient relationships in predicting adaptive functioning, especially testing for cumulative effects over time. Using data from the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation, developmental models spanning from infancy to adulthood were tested via path modeling, linking quality of various age-salient relationships (e.g. infant-caregiver attachment, peer competence, friendship security, and effectiveness in romantic relationships) to global adaptive functioning at age 28. As hypothesized, quality of age-salient relationships during different developmental periods predicted the quality of subsequent relationships, but also showed links with adaptive functioning in early adulthood. Results also showed that the quality of infant attachment relationships not only was linked with more proximal relationships, but also had direct effects on global functioning, suggesting the potential significance of early relationship quality in adaption and well-being in adulthood.

The Impact of Early Interpersonal Experience on Adult Romantic Relationship Functioning: Recent Findings from the Minnesota Longitudinal Study of Risk and Adaptation.

Adopting an organizational view on social development, we have investigated how interpersonal experiences early in life prospectively predict how well individuals resolve relationship conflicts, recover from conflicts, and have stable, satisfying relationships with their romantic partners in early adulthood. We have also identified specific intervening interpersonal experiences during middle childhood and adolescence that mediate the connection between how individuals regulated their emotions with their parents very early in life and as young adults in their romantic relationships. We discuss the many advantages of adopting an organizational view on social development.