From waterfall plots to spaghetti plots in early oncology clinical development.

Waterfall plots are used to describe changes in tumor size observed in clinical studies. They are frequently used to illustrate the overall drug response in oncology clinical trials because of its simple representation of results. Unfortunately, this visual display suffers a number of limitations including (1) potential misguidance by masking the time dynamics of tumor size, (2) ambiguous labelling of the y-axis, and (3) low data-to-ink ratio. We offer some alternatives to address these shortcomings and recommend moving away from waterfall plots to the benefit of plots showing the individual time profiles of sum of lesion diameters (according to RECIST). The spider plot presents the individual changes in tumor measurements over time relative to baseline tumor burden. Baseline tumor size is a well-known confounding factor of drug effect which has to be accounted for when analyzing data in early clinical trials. While spider plots are conveniently correct for baseline tumor size, they cannot be presented in isolation. Indeed, percentage change from baseline has suboptimal statistical properties (including skewed distribution) and can be overly optimistic in favor of drug efficacy. We argued that plots of raw data (referred to as spaghetti plots) should always accompany spider plots to provide an equipoised illustration of the drug effect on lesion diameters.

Plasma YKL-40 as a biomarker for bevacizumab efficacy in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma in the phase 3 randomized AVAglio trial.

YKL-40 is a glycoprotein with pro-angiogenic functions. We hypothesized that patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma and low baseline plasma YKL-40 levels derive greater benefit from first-line bevacizumab. Plasma samples were collected from 563 patients in the randomized, phase 3 AVAglio trial who received bevacizumab or placebo plus radiotherapy/temozolomide. Raw plasma YKL-40 concentrations were converted to age-corrected percentiles of normal healthy YKL-40 levels and divided into quartiles (Q). The impact of baseline plasma YKL-40 level on survival was investigated using Cox regression analyses. Patients with low baseline plasma YKL-40 (≤Q1) had an improved progression-free survival hazard ratio (HR) for bevacizumab versus placebo (0.37, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.25-0.55) compared with high plasma YKL-40 (> Q1) (0.71, 95% CI: 0.57-0.87). Overall survival HRs were comparable between the subgroups (≤ Q1: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.44-1.09; (> Q1: 0.88, 95% CI: 0.68-1.13). A trend for improved progression-free survival HR with low versus high YKL-40 was observed in proneural glioblastoma (0.41, 95% CI: 0.13-1.28 vs 0.80, 95% CI: 0.45-1.40, respectively), but not for proliferative/mesenchymal subtypes. Elevated plasma YKL-40 (> 90th percentile of normal) was an independent negative prognostic factor. In conclusion, the predictive value of baseline plasma YKL-40 level as a biomarker for bevacizumab efficacy in glioblastoma may be limited to patients with proneural tumors. Independent validation studies are required to confirm these results.

Evaluation of Angiopoietin-2 as a biomarker in gastric cancer: results from the randomised phase III AVAGAST trial.

BACKGROUND: In the phase III AVAGAST trial, the addition of bevacizumab to chemotherapy improved progression-free survival (PFS) but not overall survival (OS) in patients with advanced gastric cancer. We studied the role of Angiopoietin-2 (Ang-2), a key driver of tumour angiogenesis, metastasis and resistance to antiangiogenic treatment, as a biomarker. METHODS: Previously untreated, advanced gastric cancer patients were randomly assigned to receive bevacizumab (n=387) or placebo (n=387) in combination with chemotherapy. Plasma collected at baseline and at progression was analysed by ELISA. The role of Ang-2 as a prognostic and a predictive biomarker of bevacizumab efficacy was studied using a Cox proportional hazards model. Logistic regression analysis was applied for correlations with metastasis. RESULTS: Median baseline plasma Ang-2 levels were lower in Asian (2143 pg ml(-1)) vs non-Asian patients (3193 pg ml(-1)), P<0.0001. Baseline plasma Ang-2 was identified as an independent prognostic marker for OS but did not predict bevacizumab efficacy alone or in combination with baseline VEGF. Baseline plasma Ang-2 correlated with the frequency of liver metastasis (LM) at any time: Odds ratio per 1000 pg ml(-1) increase: 1.19; 95% CI 1.10-1.29; P<0.0001 (non-Asians) and 1.37; 95% CI 1.13-1.64; P=0.0010 (Asians). CONCLUSIONS: Baseline plasma Ang-2 is a novel prognostic biomarker for OS in advanced gastric cancer strongly associated with LM. Differences in Ang-2 mediated vascular response may, in part, account for outcome differences between Asian and non-Asian patients; however, data have to be further validated. Ang-2 is a promising drug target in gastric cancer.