Risk of complication at the time of laparoscopic hysterectomy: a prediction model built from the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database.

BACKGROUND: Although laparoscopic hysterectomy is well established as a favorable mode of hysterectomy owing to decreased perioperative complications, there is still room for improvement in quality of care. Previous studies have described laparoscopic hysterectomy risk, but there is currently no tool for predicting risk of complication at the time of laparoscopic hysterectomy. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to create a prediction model for complications at the time of laparoscopic hysterectomy for benign conditions. STUDY DESIGN: This is a retrospective cohort study that included patients who underwent laparoscopic hysterectomy for benign indications between 2014 and 2017 in US hospitals contributing to the American College of Surgeons - National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. Data about patient baseline characteristics, perioperative complications (intraoperative complications, readmission, reoperation, need for transfusion, operative time greater than 4 hours, or postoperative medical complication), and uterine weight at the time of pathologic examination were collected retrospectively. Postoperative uterine weight was used as a proxy for preoperative uterine weight estimate. The sample was randomly divided into 2 patient populations, one for deriving the model and the other to validate the model. RESULTS: A total of 33,123 women met the inclusion criteria. The rate of composite complication was 14.1%. Complication rates were similar in the derivation and validation cohorts (14.1% [2306 of 14,051] vs 13.9% [2289 of 14,107], P=.7207). The logistic regression risk prediction tool for hysterectomy complication identified 7 variables predictive of complication: history of laparotomy (21% increased odds of complication), age (2% increased odds of complication per year of life), body mass index (0.2% increased odds of complication per each unit increase in body mass index), parity (7% increased odds of complication per delivery), race (when compared with white women, black women had 34% increased odds and women of other races had 18% increased odds of complication), and American Society of Anesthesiologists score (when compared with American Society of Anesthesiologists 1, American Society of Anesthesiologists 2 had 31% increased odds, American Society of Anesthesiologists 3 had 62% increased odds, and American Society of Anesthesiologists 4 had 172% increased odds of complication). Predicted preoperative uterine weight also had a statistically significant nonlinear relationship with odds of complication. The c-statistics for the derivation and validation cohorts were 0.62 and 0.62, respectively. The model is well calibrated for women at all levels of risk. CONCLUSION: The laparoscopic hysterectomy complication predictor model is a tool for predicting complications in patients planning to undergo hysterectomy.

Improving decision making for massive transfusions in a resource poor setting: a preliminary study in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: The reality of finite resources has a real-world impact on a patient's ability to receive life-saving care in resource-poor settings. Blood for transfusion is an example of a scarce resource. Very few studies have looked at predictors of survival in patients requiring massive transfusion. We used data from a rural hospital in Kenya to develop a prediction model of survival among patients receiving massive transfusion. METHODS: Patients who received five or more units of whole blood within 48 hours between 2004 and 2010 were identified from a blood registry in a rural hospital in Kenya. Presenting characteristics and in-hospital survival were collected from charts. Using stepwise selection, a logistic model was developed to predict who would survive with massive transfusion versus those who would die despite transfusion. An ROC curve was created from this model to quantify its predictive power. RESULTS: Ninety-five patients with data available met inclusion criteria, and 74% survived to discharge. The number of units transfused was not a predictor of mortality, and no threshold for futility could be identified. Preliminary results suggest that initial blood pressure, lack of comorbidities, and indication for transfusion are the most important predictors of survival. The ROC curve derived from our model demonstrates an area under the curve (AUC) equal to 0.757, with optimism of 0.023 based on a bootstrap validation. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a framework for making prioritization decisions for the use of whole blood in the setting of massive bleeding. Our analysis demonstrated an overall survival rate for patients receiving massive transfusion that was higher than clinical perception. Our analysis also produced a preliminary model to predict survival in patients with massive bleeding. Prediction analyses can contribute to more efficient prioritization decisions; these decisions must also include other considerations such as equity, acceptability, affordability and sustainability.

A clinical prediction rule for the severity of congenital diaphragmatic hernias in newborns.

BACKGROUND: Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is a condition with a highly variable outcome. Some infants have a relatively mild disease process, whereas others have significant pulmonary hypoplasia and hypertension. Identifying high-risk infants postnatally may allow for targeted therapy. METHODS: Data were obtained on 2202 infants from the Congenital Diaphragmatic Hernia Study Group database from January 2007 to October 2011. Using binary baseline predictors generated from birth weight, 5-minute Apgar score, congenital heart anomalies, and chromosome anomalies, as well as echocardiographic evidence of pulmonary hypertension, a clinical prediction rule was developed on a randomly selected subset of the data by using a backward selection algorithm. An integer-based clinical prediction rule was created. The performance of the model was validated by using the remaining data in terms of calibration and discrimination. RESULTS: The final model included the following predictors: very low birth weight, absent or low 5-minute Apgar score, presence of chromosomal or major cardiac anomaly, and suprasystemic pulmonary hypertension. This model discriminated between a population at high risk of death (∼50%) intermediate risk (∼20%), or low risk (<10%). The model performed well, with a C statistic of 0.806 in the derivation set and 0.769 in the validation set and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = .2). CONCLUSIONS: A simple, generalizable scoring system was developed for CDH that can be calculated rapidly at the bedside. Using this model, intermediate- and high-risk infants could be selected for transfer to high-volume centers while infants at highest risk could be considered for advanced medical therapies.

The breast reconstruction satisfaction questionnaire (BRECON-31): an affirmative analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To verify the subscale structure of the BRECON-31 using a test sample of women naïve to the questionnaire. METHODS: The BRECON-31 was administered to women following breast reconstruction. Their responses were subjected to principal components analysis (PCA) with a varimax rotation. Components were maintained with an Eigenvalue greater than one. Internal consistency reliability was measured with Cronbach's Alpha (CA). Components on the test pool analysis were then compared with the subscales developed on 128 women who completed the questionnaire during the development phase. RESULTS: Fifty women completed the BRECON-31. Development and test pools of women were similar across demographics, pathology, and surgical details, except the development sample was somewhat older (53 yo vs. 49 yo, P = 0.02). Using PCA, eight subscales again emerged: self-image, arm concerns, intimacy, satisfaction, recovery, self-consciousness, expectations, and breast appearance. A nipple, and abdominal strength and appearance subscales also emerged. Forty-one of the 45 items loaded similarly in the development and test pools. Internal consistency reliability was high, with CA in the test pool equaling or exceeding CA in the development pool in the majority of the subscales. CONCLUSIONS: The BRECON-31 factor structure identified in the development pool was supported by the test pool, with similar reliability.

Appropriate time-interval application of alcohol hand gel on reducing influenza-like illness among preschool children: a randomized, controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: We studied the efficacy of different time-interval applications of alcohol hand gel as a strategy for the prevention of influenza-like illness (ILI) in preschool-age children. METHODS: We performed a classroom-based cluster randomization at a kindergarten school in Bangkok, Thailand. A total of 1437 children were placed into 3 test groups, based on the frequency of alcohol hand gel use for hand hygiene: only before lunch (q lunch), every 120 minutes (q 120), and every 60 minutes (q 60). The primary outcome was a change in the school absenteeism rate caused by ILI. RESULTS: The rates of absenteeism from confirmed ILI (sick days/present days) were 0.026 in the q lunch group, 0.025 in the q 120 group, and 0.017 in the q 60 group. Significant reductions in absenteeism rates were seen when comparing the q 60 group with the q 120 group (rate difference, 0.009; 95% confidence interval [CI], -0.002 to 0.015; P = .008) and comparing the q 60 group with the q lunch group (rate difference, 0.0096; 95% CI, 0.004-0.016; P = .002). No such differences were detected between the q 120 and q lunch groups (rate difference, 0.001; 95% CI, 0.005-0.007; P = .743). CONCLUSIONS: The compulsory hourly use of alcohol gel as classroom hand disinfection could significantly reduce the rate of absenteeism from ILI in preschool-age children.

Treatment interruptions among patients with tuberculosis in Russian TB hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate risk factors for in-patient treatment interruptions (TIs) in Russian tuberculosis (TB) hospitals. METHODS: The regional case-based registers for all TB patients registered in the main regional TB hospitals were analyzed for the period 1993-2002. Multivariable analysis of risk factors for TIs was performed using logistic regression. The prediction rule was developed based on the final multivariable model coefficients obtained from analysis of the largest (Lipetsk) database. RESULTS: During the study period, 18-50% of new cases and 36-56% of retreatment cases had interrupted in-patient treatment. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors of treatment interruption included: male gender (odds ratios (ORs) 1.5-2.3), age group 25-50 years (ORs 1.5-1.7), alcohol abuse (ORs 1.8-4.0), imprisonment history (ORs 1.3-2.5), unemployment (ORs 1.1-2.8), being a retreatment case (ORs 1.3-2.5), and having severe forms of TB (1.4-4.0); factors protective from interruption included urban residence (ORs 0.7-0.9) and having concomitant diseases (ORs 0.6-0.8). Based on the Lipeck model, new TB cases from the four regions were divided into low, high, and very high risk groups. Proportions of TI were approximately 20-35% in the low risk group, approximately 60-75% in the high risk group, and approximately 75-85% in the very high risk group (except Orel). CONCLUSIONS: We have described the independent predictors of patient TI, and a predictive rule for the in-patient TB treatment phase interruptions has been developed. Treatment interruption is a significant obstacle in the success of the National Tuberculosis Control Program in Russia. Interventions targeted at the high risk groups should be implemented in order to prevent in-patient treatment interruption.

Identifying the components of asthma health status in children with mild to moderate asthma.

BACKGROUND: Weak and inconsistent correlations between measurements of asthma health status suggest that the disease is composed of nonoverlapping components. OBJECTIVE: Factor analysis was used to explore the relationships between measures of asthma morbidity and to identify heterogeneous components of asthma health status in children 5 to 12 years old. Results were compared across time (baseline and 48-month visit) and treatment arms. METHODS: Analyses were conducted in 7 different study windows in a database from a large clinical trial of children with mild to moderate asthma (n = 1041). Measurements of lung function, symptoms, and health care utilization from daily diary cards, serum IgE levels, total eosinophil count, skin test positivity, and airway hyperresponsiveness were included. Data on fractional exhaled nitric oxide and sputum eosinophil cationic protein were included in a subgroup of patients. RESULTS: In each of the study windows, factor analysis identified 5 factors that explained between 50% and 60% of the common variance. Factors identified included (1) inflammatory markers, (2) symptoms/medication use, (3) asthma exacerbations, and measures of lung function, which subdivided into (4) FEV(1) and forced vital capacity, and (5) bronchodilator response and the FEV(1)/forced vital capacity ratio. Exploratory analyses suggest that fractional exhaled nitric oxide account for the atopy/inflammatory marker factor, and sputum measurements account for a sixth, separate factor. CONCLUSION: The consistent identification of a 5-factor structure across time and treatment arms suggests that each of these factors provides independent information in the assessment of asthma.

Clinical evaluation of oral chronic graft-versus-host disease.

Oral chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) is a significant and serious complication following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). The purpose of this study was to characterize the distribution, type, and extent of lesions and their correlation with patient-reported symptoms such as pain and discomfort. The effect of time since transplantation on these measures was also assessed. Consecutive patients with oral cGVHD referred to the Center for Oral Disease at Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, were evaluated over a 2-year period. Subjective data included the responses to 4 targeted symptom questions (yes/no) and a visual analog scale pain score (0-10). Objective data included the location and extent of reticulation, erythema, and ulcerations using a previously published scoring system as well as time since HSCT. Multiple linear regression analyses were performed using SAS. We evaluated 27 patients, for a total of 79 clinic visits (median 2, range: 1-8). The median time since HSCT was 18 months (range: 5-157 months). The buccal and labial mucosa and tongue were the sites of 93% of all ulcerations, 72% of all erythematous lesions, and 76% of all reticular lesions, and were the most frequently affected sites. The gingiva, floor of mouth, and hard and soft palate were infrequently affected. Although uncommon, ulceration of the soft palate was the objective finding most highly correlated with increased pain (P < .0001), and there was a generalized significant trend for increased pain scores with increased extent of ulceration. Overall, 95% of pain scores were