RESUMO
Understanding of the social environment has the potential to benefit dairy cow welfare and production. Our aim was to evaluate the associations of stocking density, calving density, days spent in a pre-partum group before calving (days spent in close-up, DCU) and the number of days from a pen filling event (addition of new cows to the pre-partum pen) on early-lactation health, production, pregnancy and culling outcomes in dairy cows. Data were gathered from 2780 cows in 2 herds. Herd management and reproductive records were analyzed for cows receiving treatment in the first 30 d of lactation (days in milk, DIM) for clinical mastitis, reproductive tract disease, ketosis, milk fever and displaced abomasum. Principal component analysis was used to account for the relationship between gestation length (GL) and DCU and their association with early lactation disease, milk production, pregnancy and culling outcomes. The effect of stocking density, the number of days from a pen filling event to calving and the calving density experienced by a cow in her week of calving was also evaluated. Causal inference was used to correct for confounding bias due to farm identity. The odds of disease in the first 30 DIM increased with stocking density before calving. A quadratic association was found between the first principal component (PC1), representing the combined effect of GL and DCU, and the odds of disease in multiparous cows only. Early lactation milk production and 305 d milk production in multiparous cows increased with PC1 score. Quadratic relationships were found between stocking density at d 8 to 2 before calving with both early lactation and 305 d milk production in multiparous cows but no associations were found in primiparous cows. Calving density showed a quadratic association with 305 d milk production in primiparous cows. The number of days from the last pen filling event to calving was not associated with changes in milk production. Disease occurrence was negatively associated with both early lactation and 305 d milk yield in multiparous cows but only with early lactation milk production in primiparous cows. The occurrence of disease was associated with a delayed time to pregnancy only in primiparous cows while both disease and being in lactation group ≥ 3 were negatively associated with time to pregnancy in multiparous cows. Week 4 milk (W4MK) was positively associated with reduced time to pregnancy in multiparous cows. For primiparous cows, increasing age at calving was associated with increased culling risk, while being in lactation group ≥ 3 was associated with increased culling risk in multiparous cows. Culling risk decreased with increasing W4MK in all cows. These results suggest that gestation length, time spent in close-up and stocking density are important factors influencing disease incidence in early lactation and subsequent lactation performance but had differing effects on primiparous versus multiparous cows. A better understanding of how pre-partum management factors influence postpartum health and milk production can help farms to plan facilities and organize the day-to-day management of cows and will assist in improving cow welfare and productivity.
RESUMO
Italy implemented two-dose universal varicella vaccination (UVV) regionally from 2003 to 2013 and nationally from 2017 onwards. Our objective was to analyze regional disparities in varicella outcomes resulting from disparities in vaccine coverage rates (VCRs) projected over a 50-year time-horizon (2020-2070). A previously published dynamic transmission model was updated to quantify the potential public health impact of the UVV program in Italy at the national and regional levels. Four 2-dose vaccine strategies utilizing monovalent (V) and quadrivalent (MMRV) vaccines were evaluated for each region: (A) MMRV-MSD/MMRV-MSD, (B) MMRV-GSK/MMRV-GSK, (C) V-MSD/MMRV-MSD, and (D) V-GSK/MMRV-GSK. Costs were reported in 2022 Euros. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted 3% annually. Under strategy A, the three regions with the lowest first-dose VCR reported increased varicella cases (+ 34.3%), hospitalizations (+ 20.0%), QALYs lost (+ 5.9%), payer costs (+ 22.2%), and societal costs (+ 14.6%) over the 50-year time-horizon compared to the three regions with highest first-dose VCR. Regions with low first-dose VCR were more sensitive to changes in VCR than high first-dose VCR regions. Results with respect to second-dose VCR were qualitatively similar, although smaller in magnitude. Results were similar across all vaccine strategies.