Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.

Evolutionary effects of alternative artificial propagation programs: implications for viability of endangered anadromous salmonids.

Most hatchery programs for anadromous salmonids have been initiated to increase the numbers of fish for harvest, to mitigate for habitat losses, or to increase abundance in populations at low abundance. However, the manner in which these programs are implemented can have significant impacts on the evolutionary trajectory and long-term viability of populations. In this paper, we review the potential benefits and risks of hatchery programs relative to the conservation of species listed under the US Endangered Species Act. To illustrate, we present the range of potential effects within a population as well as among populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) where changes to major hatchery programs are being considered. We apply evolutionary considerations emerging from these examples to suggest broader principles for hatchery uses that are consistent with conservation goals. We conclude that because of the evolutionary risks posed by artificial propagation programs, they should not be viewed as a substitute for addressing other limiting factors that prevent achieving viability. At the population level, artificial propagation programs that are implemented as a short-term approach to avoid imminent extinction are more likely to achieve long-term population viability than approaches that rely on long-term supplementation. In addition, artificial propagation programs can have out-of-population impacts that should be considered in conservation planning.