Machine Learning Approaches for the Prediction of Postoperative Major Complications in Patients Undergoing Surgery for Bowel Obstruction.

BACKGROUND: Performing emergency surgery for bowel obstruction continues to place a significant strain on the healthcare system. Conventional assessment methods for outcomes in bowel obstruction cases often concentrate on isolated factors, and the evaluation of results for individuals with bowel obstruction remains poorly studied. This study aimed to examine the risk factors associated with major postoperative complications. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 99 patients undergoing surgery from 2015 to 2022. We divided the patients into two groups: (1) benign-related obstruction (n = 68) and (2) cancer-related obstruction (n = 31). We used logistic regression, KNN, and XGBOOST. We calculated the receiver operating characteristic curve and accuracy of the model. RESULTS: Colon obstructions were more frequent in the cancer group (p = 0.005). Operative time, intestinal resection, and stoma were significantly more frequent in the cancer group. Major complications were at 41% for the cancer group vs. 20% in the benign group (p = 0.03). Uni- and multivariate analysis showed that the significant risk factors for major complications were cancer-related obstruction and CRP. The best model was KNN, with an accuracy of 0.82. CONCLUSIONS: Colonic obstruction is associated with tumor-related blockage. Malignant cancer and an increase in C-reactive protein (CRP) are significant risk factors for patients who have undergone emergency surgery due to major complications. KNN could improve the process of counseling and the perioperative management of patients with intestinal obstruction in emergency settings.

Quadruple Assessment of Colorectal Anastomosis after Laparoscopic Rectal Resection: A Retrospective Analysis of a Propensity-Matched Cohort.

Background: Anastomotic leakage (AL) is one of the most feared complications in colorectal surgery, with an incidence of 12-39% and associated risk of mortality of 2-24%. The causes of AL and the ways to prevent it are currently under investigation. This study aims to verify if a quadruple assessment of colorectal anastomosis could reduce AL incidence. Methods: A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data on rectal cancer surgery performed from January 2015 to December 2017 and from January 2021 to December 2023 at a tertiary referral cancer centre was performed. Demographics, clinicopathological features, short-term outcomes, recurrences, and survival were investigated. Results: A total of 293 patients were enrolled. AL incidence was lower in the quadruple assessment group than in the control group, reaching a statistically significant result (7.7% vs. 16%; p = 0.001). This result was also confirmed after a propensity score match analysis (PSM), in which the AL rate was lower in the quadruple assessment group (5.4% vs. 12.3%; p = 0.01). Conclusions: This study shows how the systematic implementation of a quadruple assessment when performing a colorectal anastomosis could increase awareness on anastomotic success and reduce the incidence of AL.

Radiomics in Oesogastric Cancer: Staging and Prediction of Preoperative Treatment Response: A Narrative Review and the Results of Personal Experience.

BACKGROUND: Oesophageal, gastroesophageal, and gastric malignancies are often diagnosed at locally advanced stage and multimodal therapy is recommended to increase the chances of survival. However, given the significant variation in treatment response, there is a clear imperative to refine patient stratification. The aim of this narrative review was to explore the existing evidence and the potential of radiomics to improve staging and prediction of treatment response of oesogastric cancers. METHODS: The references for this review article were identified via MEDLINE (PubMed) and Scopus searches with the terms "radiomics", "texture analysis", "oesophageal cancer", "gastroesophageal junction cancer", "oesophagogastric junction cancer", "gastric cancer", "stomach cancer", "staging", and "treatment response" until May 2024. RESULTS: Radiomics proved to be effective in improving disease staging and prediction of treatment response for both oesophageal and gastric cancer with all imaging modalities (TC, MRI, and 18F-FDG PET/CT). The literature data on the application of radiomics to gastroesophageal junction cancer are very scarce. Radiomics models perform better when integrating different imaging modalities compared to a single radiology method and when combining clinical to radiomics features compared to only a radiomics signature. CONCLUSIONS: Radiomics shows potential in noninvasive staging and predicting response to preoperative therapy among patients with locally advanced oesogastric cancer. As a future perspective, the incorporation of molecular subgroup analysis to clinical and radiomic features may even increase the effectiveness of these predictive and prognostic models.

Evaluation of Short-Term Effects on Colorectal Surgery Elective Patients after Implementing a Patient Blood Management Program: A Multicenter Retrospective Analysis.

Introduction: Patients who undergo surgery may require a blood transfusion and patients undergoing major colorectal surgery are more prone to preoperative and perioperative anemia. Blood transfusions have, however, long been associated with inflammatory and oncological complications. We aim to investigate the effects of an optimal implementation of a patient blood management (PBM) program in our hospital. Methods: This study retrospectively reviewed data from two different prospectively maintained databases of all patients undergoing elective major colorectal surgery with either a laparoscopic, open, or robotic approach from January 2017 to December 2022 at two different high-volume colorectal surgery Italian centers: the Colorectal Surgery Unit of Fondazione Policlinico Campus Bio-Medico in Rome and the Colorectal Surgery Unit of Fondazione Cardinale Panico in Tricase (Lecce). Our study compares the first group, also known as pre-PBM (January 2017-December 2018) and the second group, known as post-PBM (January 2021-December 2022). Results: A total of 2495 patients, who satisfied the inclusion and exclusion criteria, were included in this study, with, respectively, 1197 patients in the pre-PBM group and 1298 in the post- PBM group. The surgical approach was similar amongst the two groups, while the operative time was longer in the pre-PBM group than in the post-PBM group (273.0 ± 87 vs. 215.0 ± 124 min; p < 0.001). There was no significant difference in preparatory Hb levels (p = 0.486), while anemia detection was significantly higher post-PBM (p = 0.007). However, the rate of transfusion was drastically reduced since the implementation of PBM, with p = 0.032 for preoperative, p = 0.025 for intraoperative, and p < 0.001 for postoperative. Conclusions: We confirmed the need to reduce blood transfusions and optimize transfusion procedures to improve short-term clinical outcomes of patients. The implementation of the PBM program was associated with a significant reduction in the rate of perioperative transfusions and an increase in only appropriate transfusions.

A Green Lantern for the Surgeon: A Review on the Use of Indocyanine Green (ICG) in Minimally Invasive Surgery.

Indocyanine green (ICG) fluorescence imaging has revolutionized surgical practice across various medical and surgical specialties. This article reviews the clinical applications of ICG in abdominal, urological, thoracic, and gynecological surgery. ICG fluorescence imaging has been widely adopted in general surgery for various applications, including perfusion assessment, intraoperative visualization of the ureter, and tumor localization. It is particularly valuable in evaluating anastomotic leaks and aiding in precise tumor resection during minimally invasive surgeries. Studies have shown mixed results on its effectiveness in reducing anastomotic leak rates, highlighting the need for further research. In thoracic surgery, ICG facilitates the identification and resection of pulmonary bullae, as well as the precise localization of pulmonary nodules during video-assisted surgery. In urology, ICG aids in localizing renal tumors and guiding selective arterial occlusion during partial nephrectomy. Its role in identifying the lymphatic pathway in prostate cancer and sentinel lymph node biopsy in gynecological cancer is also discussed. Despite its benefits, the use of ICG fluorescence faces challenges such as limited tissue penetration, the potential for false results, a lack of standardized protocols, and high equipment costs. Nonetheless, it remains a powerful tool that could improve surgical outcomes.

Current Management of Acute Severe Ulcerative Colitis: New Insights on the Surgical Approaches.

Acute severe ulcerative colitis (ASUC) is a life-threatening medical emergency with considerable morbidity. Despite recent advances in medical IBD therapy, colectomy rates for ASUC remain high. A scoping review of published articles on ASUC was performed. We collected data, such as general information of the disease, diagnosis and initial assessment, and available medical and surgical treatments focusing on technical aspects of surgical approaches. The most relevant articles were considered in this scoping review. The management of ASUC is challenging; currently, personalized treatment for it is unavailable. Sequential medical therapy should be administrated, preferably in high-volume IBD centers with close patient monitoring and indication for surgery in those cases with persistent symptoms despite medical treatment, complications, and clinical worsening. A total colectomy with end ileostomy is typically performed in the acute setting. Managing rectal stump is challenging, and all individual and technical aspects should be considered. Conversely, when performing elective colectomy for ASUC, a staged surgical procedure is usually preferred, thus optimizing the patients' status preoperatively and minimizing postoperative complications. The minimally invasive approach should be selected whenever technically feasible. Robotic versus laparoscopic ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA) has shown similar outcomes in terms of safety and postoperative morbidity. The transanal approach to ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (Ta-IPAA) is a recent technique for creating an ileal pouch-anal anastomosis via a transanal route. Early experiences suggest comparable short- and medium-term functional results of the transanal technique to those of traditional approaches. However, there is a need for additional comparative outcomes data and a better understanding of the ideal training and implementation pathways for this procedure. This manuscript predominantly explores the surgical treatment of ASUC. Additionally, it provides an overview of currently available medical treatment options that the surgeon should reasonably consider in a multidisciplinary setting.

Laparoscopic Treatment of Perforated Peptic Ulcer: A Propensity Score-Matched Comparison of Interrupted Stitches Repair versus Knotless Barbed Suture.

Background: Peptic ulcers result from imbalanced acid production, and in recent decades, proton pump inhibitors have proven effective in treating them. However, perforated peptic ulcers (PPU) continue to occur with a persistent high mortality rate when not managed properly. The advantages of the laparoscopic approach have been widely acknowledged. Nevertheless, concerning certain technical aspects of this method, such as the best gastrorrhaphy technique, the consensus remains elusive. Consequently, the choice tends to rely on individual surgical experiences. Our study aimed to compare interrupted stitches versus running barbed suture for laparoscopic PPU repair. Methods: We conducted a retrospective study utilizing propensity score matching analysis on patients who underwent laparoscopic PPU repair. Patients were categorised into two groups: Interrupted Stitches Suture (IStiS) and Knotless Suture (KnotS). We then compared the clinical and pathological characteristics of patients in both groups. Results: A total of 265 patients underwent laparoscopic PPU repair: 198 patients with interrupted stitches technique and 67 with barbed knotless suture. Following propensity score matching, each group (IStiS and KnotS) comprised 56 patients. The analysis revealed that operative time did not differ between groups: 87.9 ± 39.7 vs. 92.8 ± 42.6 min (p = 0.537). Postoperative morbidity (24.0% vs. 32.7%, p = 0.331) and Clavien-Dindo III (10.7% vs. 5.4%, p = 0.489) were more frequently observed in the KnotS group, without any significant difference. In contrast, we found a slightly higher mortality rate in the IStiS group (10.7% vs. 7.1%, p = 0.742). Concerning leaks, no differences emerged between groups (3.6% vs. 5.4%, p = 1.000). Conclusions: Laparoscopic PPU repair with knotless barbed sutures is a non-inferior alternative to interrupted stitches repair. Nevertheless, further research such as randomised trials, with a standardised treatment protocol according to ulcer size, are required to identify the best gastrorraphy technique.

Comparison of purse-string technique vs linear suture for skin closure after ileostomy reversal. A randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Protective stoma after rectal surgery has been associated with important complications. The most common is surgical site infection (SSI) high rates after stoma reversal reported in literature. Our study compared the rate of SSI of two skin closure techniques, linear closure, and purse string closure. METHODS: We carried out a single center, prospective, randomized controlled trial in the Department of Colorectal Surgery of Fondazione Policlinico Campus Bio-Medico of Rome between January 2018 through December 2021, to compare LC vs PS closure of ileostomy sites. RESULTS: A total of 117 patients (53.84% male) with a mean age of 65.68 ± 14.33 years were finally evaluated in the study. 58 patients were included in the PS group and 59 patients in the LC one. There was a marked difference in the SSI rate between the two arms of the study: 3 of 58 patients in the purse-string arm versus 11 of 59 in the control arm (p = 0.043). The outcome of cosmesis was also higher in PS, with a statistical significance (mean ± DS 4,01 ± 0,73 for PS group vs mean ± DS 2,38 ± 0,72 for LC group, p < 0,001). CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrated that the PS technique had a significantly lower incidence of stoma site SSI compared with LC technique. Our findings are in line with other randomized studies and suggest that PS closure could be considered as standard of care for wound closure after ileostomy reversal.

Beyond acute appendicitis: a single-institution experience of unexpected pathology findings after 989 consecutive emergency appendectomy.

INTRODUCTION: Appendiceal neoplasms (ANs) are rare, with an estimated incidence of around 1%: neuroendocrine tumours (NETs) and low-grade appendiceal mucinous neoplasms (LAMNs) comprise most cases. Most tumours are cured by appendectomy alone, although some require right hemicolectomy and intra-operative chemotherapy. The aim of the present study is to evaluate our institution's experience in terms of the prevalence of AN, their histological types, treatment and outcomes in adult patients undergoing emergency appendectomy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Single-centre retrospective cohort analysis of patients treated for acute appendicitis at a large academic medical centre. Patients with a diagnosis of acute appendicitis (AA) where further compared with patients with acute appendicitis and a histologically confirmed diagnosis of appendiceal neoplasm (AN). RESULTS: A diagnosis of acute appendicitis was made in 1200 patients. Of these, 989 patients underwent emergency appendectomy. The overall incidence of appendiceal neoplasm was 9.3% (92 patients). AN rate increased with increasing age. Patients under the age of 30 had a 3.8% (14/367 patients) rate of occult neoplasm, whereas patients between 40 and 89 years and older had a 13.0% rate of neoplasm. No difference was found in clinical presentations and type of approach while we found a lower complicated appendicitis rate in the AN group. CONCLUSION: ANs are less rare with respect to the literature; however, clinically, there are no specific signs of suspicious and simple appendicectomy appears to be curative in most cases. However, age plays an important role; older patients are at higher risk for AN. ANs still challenge the non-operative management concept introduced into the surgical literature.

Acute cholecystitis management in high-risk, critically ill, and unfit-for-surgery patients: the Italian Society of Emergency Surgery and Trauma (SICUT) guidelines.

Dealing with acute cholecystitis in high-risk, critically ill, and unfit-for-surgery patients is frequent during daily practice and requires complex management. Several procedures exist to postpone and/or prevent surgical intervention in those patients who temporarily or definitively cannot undergo surgery. After a systematic review of the literature, an expert panel from the Italian Society of Emergency Surgery and Trauma (SICUT) discussed the different issues and statements in subsequent rounds. The final version of the statements was discussed during the annual meeting in Rome (September 2022). The present paper presents the definitive conclusions of the discussion. Fifteen statements based on the literature evidence were provided. The statements gave precise indications regarding the decisional process and the management of patients who cannot temporarily or definitively undergo cholecystectomy for acute cholecystitis. Acute cholecystitis management in high-risk, critically ill, and unfit-for-surgery patients should be multidisciplinary. The different gallbladder drainage methods must be tailored according to each patient and based on the expertise of the hospital. Percutaneous gallbladder drainage is recommended as the first choice as a bridge to surgery or in severely physiologically deranged patients. Endoscopic gallbladder drainage (cholecystoduodenostomy and cholecystogastrostomy) is suggested as a second-line alternative especially as a definitive procedure for those patients not amenable to surgical management. Trans-papillary gallbladder drainage is the last option to be reserved only to those unfit for other techniques. Delayed laparoscopic cholecystectomy in patients with percutaneous gallbladder drainage is suggested in all those patients recovering from the conditions that previously discouraged surgical intervention after at least 6 weeks from the gallbladder drainage.

Application of fluorescence-guided surgery in the acute care setting: a systematic literature review.

PURPOSE: Fluorescence-based imaging has found application in several fields of elective surgery, but there is still a lack of evidence in the literature about its use in emergency setting. The present review critically summarizes currently available applications and limitations of indocyanine green (ICG) fluorescence in abdominal emergencies including acute cholecystitis, mesenteric ischemia, and trauma surgery. METHODS: A systematic review was performed according to the PRISMA statement identifying articles about the use of ICG fluorescence in the management of the most common general surgery emergency. Only studies focusing on the use of ICG fluorescence for the management of acute surgical conditions in adults were included. RESULTS: Thirty-six articles were considered for qualitative analysis. The most frequent disease was occlusive or non-occlusive mesenteric ischemia followed by acute cholecystitis. Benefits from using ICG for acute cholecystitis were reported in 48% of cases (clear identification of biliary structures and a safer surgical procedure). In one hundred and twenty cases that concerned the use of ICG for occlusive or non-occlusive mesenteric ischemia, ICG injection led to a modification of the surgical decision in 44 patients (36.6%). Three studies evaluated the use of ICG in trauma patients to assess the viability of bowel or parenchymatous organs in abdominal trauma, to evaluate the perfusion-related tissue impairment in extremity or craniofacial trauma, and to reassess the efficacy of surgical procedures performed in terms of vascularization. ICG injection led to a modification of the surgical decision in 50 patients (23.9%). CONCLUSION: ICG fluorescence is a safe and feasible tool also in an emergency setting. There is increasing evidence that the use of ICG fluorescence during abdominal surgery could facilitate intra-operative decision-making and improve patient outcomes, even in the field of emergency surgery.

Management of Acute Cholecystitis in High-Risk Patients: Percutaneous Gallbladder Drainage as a Definitive Treatment vs. Emergency Cholecystectomy-Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: This systematic review aims to investigate whether percutaneous transhepatic gallbladder biliary drainage (PTGBD) is superior to emergency cholecystectomy (EC) as a definitive treatment in high-risk patients with acute cholecystitis (AC). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A systematic literature search was performed until December 2022 using the Scopus, Medline/PubMed and Web of Science databases. RESULTS: Seventeen studies have been included with a total of 783,672 patients (32,634 treated with PTGBD vs. 4663 who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy, 343 who had open cholecystectomy and 746,032 who had some form of cholecystectomy, but without laparoscopic or open approach being specified). An analysis of the results shows that PTGBD, despite being less invasive, is not associated with lower morbidity with respect to EC (RR 0.77 95% CI [0.44 to 1.34]; I2 = 99%; p = 0.36). A lower postoperative mortality was reported in patients who underwent EC (2.37%) with respect to the PTGBD group (13.78%) (RR 4.21; 95% CI [2.69 to 6.58]; p < 0.00001); furthermore, the risk of hospital readmission for biliary complications (RR 2.19 95% CI [1.72 to 2.79]; I2 = 48%; p < 0.00001) and hospital stay (MD 4.29 95% CI [2.40 to 6.19]; p < 0.00001) were lower in the EC group. CONCLUSIONS: In our systematic review, the majority of studies have very low-quality evidence and more RCTs are needed; furthermore, PTGBD is inferior in the treatment of AC in high-risk patients. The definition of high-risk patients is important in interpreting the results, but the methods of assessment and definitions differ between studies. The results of our systematic review and meta-analysis failed to demonstrate any advantage of using PTGBD over ER as a definitive treatment of AC in critically ill patients, which suggests that EC should be considered as the treatment of choice even in very high-risk patients. Most likely, the inferiority of PTGBD versus early LC for high-risk patients is related to an association of various patient-side factor conditions and the severity of acute cholecystitis.

Good stability and mid-term subjective outcomes after repeated anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) revision surgery using allografts.

PURPOSE: To evaluate the mid-term clinical outcomes of a cohort of patients who underwent multiple ACL revision reconstructions. The hypothesis was that patients with pre-existing meniscal deficiency conditions, malalignment and cartilage degeneration would have obtained lower results. METHODS: All cases of multiple ACL revisions performed with allograft tissue at one single sport-medicine institution were extracted and patients with a minimum 2 years of follow-up were included. WOMAC, Lhysolm, IKDC, and Tegner activity level before the injury and at last follow-up was collected and laxity evaluated with KT-1000 arthrometer and KiRA triaxial accelerometer. RESULTS: From a cohort of 241 ACL revisions, 28 patients (12%) with Repeated ACL Revision reconstructions were included. Fourteen cases (50%) were considered "Complex" due to the addition of meniscal allograft transplantation (8) or meniscal scaffold (3) or high tibial osteotomy (3). The remaining 14 cases (50%) were considered as "Isolate". The mean WOMAC score was 84.6 ± 11.4, Lysholm 81.7 ± 12.3, subjective IKDC 77.2 ± 12.1, and median Tegner score 6 (IQR 5-6) at pre-injury and at final follow-up. Statistically significant inferior values of WOMAC (p = 0.008), Lysholm (p = 0.02) and Subjective IKDC (p = 0.0193) were detected between "Complex" and "Isolate" revision groups. Higher average values of anterior translation at KT-1000 at both 125 N (p = 0.03) and manual maximum displacement test (p = 0.03) were reported in "Complex" with respect to "Isolate" revisions. Four patients were considered as failures and occurred in patients with "Complex" revisions, none occurred in the "Isolate" (30% vs 0%; p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: Good mid-term clinical results can be obtained after repeated ACL revision with allograft in patients who experienced multiple failures; however, those who need additional procedure due to malalignment or post-meniscectomy syndrome reported lower objective and subjective results. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III.

Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) treatment: an Italian nationwide propensity score-matched cohort study investigating laparoscopic vs open approach.

BACKGROUND: Perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) remain a surgical emergency accounting for 37% of all peptic ulcer-related deaths. Surgery remains the standard of care. The benefits of laparoscopic approach have been well-established even in the elderly. However, because of inconsistent results with specific regard to some technical aspects of such technique surgeons questioned the adoption of laparoscopic approach. This leads to choose the type of approach based on personal experience. The aim of our study was to critically appraise the use of the laparoscopic approach in PPU treatment comparing it with open procedure. METHODS: A retrospective study with propensity score matching analysis of patients underwent surgical procedure for PPU was performed. Patients undergoing PPU repair were divided into: Laparoscopic approach (LapA) and Open approach (OpenA) groups and clinical-pathological features of patients in the both groups were compared. RESULTS: A total of 453 patients underwent PPU simple repair. Among these, a LapA was adopted in 49% (222/453 patients). After propensity score matching, 172 patients were included in each group (the LapA and the OpenA). Analysis demonstrated increased operative times in the OpenA [OpenA: 96.4 ± 37.2 vs LapA 88.47 ± 33 min, p = 0.035], with shorter overall length of stay in the LapA group [OpenA 13 ± 12 vs LapA 10.3 ± 11.4 days p = 0.038]. There was no statistically significant difference in mortality [OpenA 26 (15.1%) vs LapA 18 (10.5%), p = 0.258]. Focusing on morbidity, the overall rate of 30-day postoperative morbidity was significantly lower in the LapA group [OpenA 67 patients (39.0%) vs LapA 37 patients (21.5%) p = 0.002]. When stratified using the Clavien-Dindo classification, the severity of postoperative complications was statistically different only for C-D 1-2. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the present study, we can support that laparoscopic suturing of perforated peptic ulcers, apart from being a safe technique, could provide significant advantages in terms of postoperative complications and hospital stay.

Percutaneous cholecystostomy as bridge to surgery vs surgery in unfit patients with acute calculous cholecystitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Acute cholecystitis is one of the most common causes of acute abdomen. Early laparoscopic cholecystectomy is the gold standard treatment, still burdened by a risk of intraoperative biliary duct injury. An alternative strategy to manage patients with severe acute cholecystitis is the percutaneous gallbladder drainage (PGBD). METHODS: The Italian Society of Emergency Surgery and Trauma performed a systematic review and meta-analysis with the aim to clarify controversies about the preoperative use of PGBD. We extracted 32 studies: 9 Randomized Control Trial Studies (RCTs) and 23 no RCTs. RESULTS OF CRITICAL OUTCOMES: The incidence of post-operative complications was lower in the PGBD associated at LC than in the LC alone (RCTs: RR 0.28, 95% CI 0.14 to 0.56, I2 = 63%). The incidence of the post-operative biliary leakage was higher in late PGBD' group (RCTs: RR 0.18, 95% CI 0.04 to 0.80). RESULTS OF OTHER OUTCOMES: The incidence of intraabdominal abscess, blood loss, conversion to open, subtotal cholecystectomy, operative time and wound infection was lower in PGBD' group. The total hospital stay was the same. CONCLUSION: A strong recommendation is performed to the use of the PGBD + LC than upfront LC to reduce biliary leakage (recommendation "strong positive") in high risk acute cholecystitis especially in patients with higher perioperative risks or longstanding acute cholecystitis. For post-operative complications a recommendation "positive weak" suggests that PGBD + LC could be used than upfront LC to reduce the rate of post-operative complications.

Study and validation of an explainable machine learning-based mortality prediction following emergency surgery in the elderly: A prospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: The heterogeneity of procedures and the variety of comorbidities of the patients undergoing surgery in an emergency setting makes perioperative risk stratification, planning, and risk mitigation crucial. In this optic, Machine Learning has the capability of deriving data-driven predictions based on multivariate interactions of thousands of instances. Our aim was to cross-validate and test interpretable models for the prediction of post-operative mortality after any surgery in an emergency setting on elderly patients. METHODS: This study is a secondary analysis derived from the FRAILESEL study, a multi-center (N = 29 emergency care units), nationwide, observational prospective study with data collected between 06-2017 and 06-2018 investigating perioperative outcomes of elderly patients (age≥65 years) undergoing emergency surgery. Demographic and clinical data, medical and surgical history, preoperative risk factors, frailty, biochemical blood examination, vital parameters, and operative details were collected and the primary outcome was set to the 30-day mortality. RESULTS: Of the 2570 included patients (50.66% males, median age 77 [IQR = 13] years) 238 (9.26%) were in the non-survivors group. The best performing solution (MultiLayer Perceptron) resulted in a test accuracy of 94.9% (sensitivity = 92.0%, specificity = 95.2%). Model explanations showed how non-chronic cardiac-related comorbidities reduced activities of daily living, low consciousness levels, high creatinine and low saturation increase the risk of death following surgery. CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective observational study, a robustly cross-validated model resulted in better predictive performance than existing tools and scores in literature. By using only preoperative features and by deriving patient-specific explanations, the model provides crucial information during shared decision-making processes required for risk mitigation procedures.

Gastro-intestinal emergency surgery: Evaluation of morbidity and mortality. Protocol of a prospective, multicenter study in Italy for evaluating the burden of abdominal emergency surgery in different age groups. (The GESEMM study).

Gastrointestinal emergencies (GE) are frequently encountered in emergency department (ED), and patients can present with wide-ranging symptoms. more than 3 million patients admitted to US hospitals each year for EGS diagnoses, more than the sum of all new cancer diagnoses. In addition to the complexity of the urgent surgical patient (often suffering from multiple co-morbidities), there is the unpredictability and the severity of the event. In the light of this, these patients need a rapid decision-making process that allows a correct diagnosis and an adequate and timely treatment. The primary endpoint of this Italian nationwide study is to analyze the clinicopathological findings, management strategies and short-term outcomes of gastrointestinal emergency procedures performed in patients over 18. Secondary endpoints will be to evaluate to analyze the prognostic role of existing risk-scores to define the most suitable scoring system for gastro-intestinal surgical emergency. The primary outcomes are 30-day overall postoperative morbidity and mortality rates. Secondary outcomes are 30-day postoperative morbidity and mortality rates, stratified for each procedure or cause of intervention, length of hospital stay, admission and length of stay in ICU, and place of discharge (home or rehabilitation or care facility). In conclusion, to improve the level of care that should be reserved for these patients, we aim to analyze the clinicopathological findings, management strategies and short-term outcomes of gastrointestinal emergency procedures performed in patients over 18, to analyze the prognostic role of existing risk-scores and to define new tools suitable for EGS. This process could ameliorate outcomes and avoid futile treatments. These results may potentially influence the survival of many high-risk EGS procedure.

Oncological outcomes of rectal cancer patients with anastomotic leakage: A multicenter case-control study.

Introduction: This study aimed to evaluate the impact of anastomotic leakage (AL) on oncological outcomes after restorative rectal cancer surgery. Methods: Patients who underwent anterior resection for rectal adenocarcinoma between January 2011 and December 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Data were collected from three colorectal surgery centers. Patients with grade B and C leaks according to the International Study Group of Rectal Cancer classification were identified and compared with the control group. Estimated recurrence and survival rates were compared using the log-rank method and Cox regression analysis. Results: A total of 367 patients were included in the study, with a mean follow-up of 59.21 months. AL occurred in 64 patients (17.4%). Fifteen patients with AL (23.5%) developed local recurrence (LR) compared to 17 (4.8%) in the control group (p < 0.001). However, distant recurrence rates were similar (10.9% vs. 9.6%; p = 0.914) between the groups. Kaplan-Meier curves showed that patients with AL had a reduced 5-years local recurrence-free survival (96% vs. 78%, log-rank p < 0.001). AL (OR 4.576; 95% CI, 2.046-10.237; p < 0.001) and node involvement (OR 2.911; 95% CI, 1.240-6.835; p = 0.014) were significantly associated with LR in multivariate analysis. AL was significantly associated with DFS only at univariate analysis (HR 1.654; 95% CI: 1.024-2.672; p = 0.037), with a difference between 5-year DFS of patients with and without AL (71.6% vs. 86.4%, log-rank p = 0.04). Only male gender, pT3-4 stage, and node involvement were identified as independent prognostic factors for reduced DFS in the multivariate Cox regression analysis. Conclusion: In this cohort of patients, AL was associated with a significant risk of LR after rectal cancer surgery.