Tamoxifen and depression: more evidence from the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project's Breast Cancer Prevention (P-1) Randomized Study.

BACKGROUND: Concerns have been raised that tamoxifen may be associated with depression. To investigate this question, we examined the psychological effects of tamoxifen treatment for breast cancer prevention on women at different levels of risk for clinical depression who were enrolled in the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project's Breast Cancer Prevention (P-1) Study. METHODS: A total of 11 064 women were randomly assigned to receive for 5 years daily doses of 20 mg of tamoxifen or placebo in the P-1 study, a multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled chemoprevention trial. Each woman was prospectively assessed for depression risk on the basis of medical history items collected at the baseline examination and placed in a high-, medium-, or low-risk group. Every 6 months, for a total of 36 months, the participants were assessed for depressive symptoms by completing the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression (CES-D) questionnaire. Scores of 16 or higher were indicative of an episode of affective distress. Differences between the risk groups and treatment arms were analyzed by logistic regression. All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Women in the higher risk depression groups were more likely to score 16 or higher on the CES-D (percent follow-up examinations with a score of > or = 16: high-risk group = 35.7%, with 95% confidence interval [CI] = 32.5% to 38.9%; medium-risk group = 19.2%, with 95% CI = 18.1% to 20.3%; and low-risk group = 8.7%, with 95% CI = 8.3 to 9.1%) and to have these scores more frequently and for longer periods than women in the lower risk groups. Within each depression risk group, there was no difference in the proportion of women scoring 16 or higher by treatment assignment (tamoxifen versus placebo) (odds ratio = 0.98; 95% CI = 0.93 to 1.02). A post-hoc analysis indicated that the lack of a tamoxifen effect was not a result of differential missing data. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians need not be overly concerned that treatment with tamoxifen will increase the risk for or exacerbate existing depression in women. Nevertheless, physicians should continue to screen for and treat or refer potential cases of depression encountered in routine clinical practice.

Tamoxifen and cardiac risk factors in healthy women: Suggestion of an anti-inflammatory effect.

-Tamoxifen reduces the incidence of breast cancer in women at risk for that disease. Because heart disease is the leading cause of death in women and because tamoxifen is also associated with venous thrombosis, an improved understanding of the association of tamoxifen with cardiovascular disease risk factors is required. In 111 healthy women at a single center, who were participating in a randomized double-blind breast cancer prevention trial, the 6-month effects of oral tamoxifen (20 mg/d) compared with placebo on factors related to inflammation, hemostasis, and lipids were studied. Tamoxifen was associated with reductions of 26% in median C-reactive protein, 22% in median fibrinogen, and 9% in cholesterol (all P:<0.01 compared with placebo). There were no differences in treatment effects on factor VII coagulant activity, fragment 1-2, and triglycerides. In secondary analyses, the effect of tamoxifen on C-reactive protein was larger in postmenopausal women and in women with higher waist-to-hip ratios. The effect on fibrinogen was larger in women with higher baseline cholesterol. Tamoxifen demonstrated effects on inflammatory markers that were consistent with reduced cardiovascular risk. These findings are in contrast to recent reports of increased C-reactive protein associated with postmenopausal estrogen. The potential for beneficial cardiovascular effects of tamoxifen in healthy women is suggested.

Cardiovascular effects of tamoxifen in women with and without heart disease: breast cancer prevention trial. National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Breast Cancer Prevention Trial Investigators.

BACKGROUND: The overall effect of prophylactic tamoxifen in women depends on the balance between the effects of the drug, which include preventing breast cancer and altering cardiovascular risk. In a recent clinical trial, postmenopausal estrogen-progestin therapy was shown to increase the risk of early cardiovascular events among women with a history of coronary heart disease (CHD). The cardiovascular effects of tamoxifen in women with and without CHD are not known. The National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT) is the only clinical trial that provides data to assess the cardiovascular effects of tamoxifen in women with and without CHD. METHODS: A total of 13 388 women at increased risk for breast cancer were randomly assigned in the BCPT to receive either tamoxifen (20 mg/day) or placebo. Cardiovascular follow-up was available for 13 194 women, 1048 of whom had prior clinical CHD. Fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, unstable angina, and severe angina were tabulated (mean follow-up: 49 months). All statistical tests were two-sided. RESULTS: Cardiovascular event rates were not statistically significantly different between women assigned to receive tamoxifen and those assigned to receive placebo, independent of pre-existing CHD. Among women without CHD (6074 on tamoxifen versus 6072 on placebo), risk ratios (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) for tamoxifen users were 1.75 (0.44 to 8.13) for fatal myocardial infarction, 1.11 (0.55 to 2.28) for nonfatal myocardial infarction, 0.69 (0.29 to 1.57) for unstable angina, and 0.83 (0.32 to 2.10) for severe angina. In women with CHD (516 on tamoxifen versus 532 on placebo), risk ratios (95% CIs) for tamoxifen users were 0.00 (0 to 1.58) for fatal myocardial infarction, 1.25 (0.32 to 5.18) for nonfatal myocardial infarction, 2.26 (0.87 to 6.55) for unstable angina, and 1.39 (0.23 to 9.47) for severe angina. There was no evidence that the lack of association between tamoxifen and cardiovascular events was related to an early increase in risk that may have been offset by a late decrease in risk. CONCLUSION: When used for breast cancer prevention in women with or without heart disease, tamoxifen is not associated with beneficial or adverse cardiovascular effects.

Results and implications of the Royal Marsden and other tamoxifen chemoprevention trials: an alternative view.

At the time of the release of the findings of the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT), early interim results from two smaller European studies were also released. These smaller studies included one from the Royal Marsden (RM) Hospital in London, England, and another from the Italian National Cancer Institute. Since then, there has been much discussion about the relevance of the interim findings from the European studies and the likely reason for the failure of these studies to find a treatment effect. In some instances, the discussion has been incomplete or inconsistent with the observations from the trial. This has caused some confusion regarding the likely differences among the three studies of breast cancer prevention with tamoxifen. Recently, investigators from the RM study have published their interpretation of the reasons for the negative findings from the European studies. The discussions of the RM investigators are reviewed and used as a basis to illustrate some misconceptions regarding key differences in trial design and implementation among the BCPT and the European trials. The investigator discussions are also used to illustrate the significance of performing an appropriate benefit/risk assessment to identify women who would likely have a net beneficial effect when using tamoxifen to reduce the risk of breast cancer occurrence. Differences in terms of the characteristics of the study populations resulting in inadequate statistical power is the most likely reason for the failure to detect treatment differences in the European trials. Possible confounding due to the use of hormone replacement therapy is another reason that must be considered. Also, benefit/risk analysis indicates that tamoxifen has substantial public health potential as an approach to reduce breast cancer incidence and the physical and mental morbidity associated with this disease. The drug cannot be used indiscriminately due to the potential side effects, but benefit/risk assessment methodology can be used to identify substantial numbers of women in whom treatment would provide a net beneficial effect.

Benefit/risk assessment of SERM therapy: clinical trial versus clinical practice settings.

Benefit/risk assessment (B/rA) can be used in a variety of circumstances encompassing clinical practice and research settings. Subsequent to the reporting of the results from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (BCPT), methodology was developed to perform B/rA for the use of the selected estrogen receptor modulator (SERM), tamoxifen. Although the methodology was specifically developed and applied to the use of tamoxifen, it is a generalized procedure that can be readily modified and applied to other forms of therapy including other SERMs. Recently, the methodology has been incorporated into the Study of Tamoxifen and Raloxifene (STAR) trial, a randomized clinical trial designed to compare the chemopreventive effects of two SERMs--tamoxifen and raloxifene. The B/rA of SERMs is complex because SERMs are known to exhibit properties that can reduce or increase the incidence of several health outcomes. This paper summarizes the uses of B/rA in the clinical practice and clinical trial settings and describes the constraints of the methodology as it is being applied to the assessment of therapy with SERMs.

Conclusions: Considerations regarding SERMs.

The "considerations" addressed in this section consist of a number of thought-provoking issues and unresolved questions that emerge from the papers in this volume. The evidence for tamoxifen carcinogenicity in animal models and, to a more restricted extent, in humans has led some investigators to question whether SERMs are ready or appropriate for clinical testing--specifically, in a disease prevention setting involving healthy but high-risk individuals. There is, however, inconsistency in both efficacy and toxicity--specifically, carcinogenicity--between animal models and humans, leading others to question the value of basing the decision to proceed with clinical studies on preclinical results in animals. Although the molecular basis for SERM action is rapidly being clarified, the cellular activity of these agents is still elusive. We discuss the view that the efficacy of tamoxifen in breast cancer is based on its treatment of "occult cancers," or small collections of cancer cells that are not clinically apparent, not only in the context of prevention but also in the treatment setting. As part of our approach that assumes estrogen activity to be the foundation upon which SERM development is being modeled, we discuss the inconsistency between the epidemiologic data and prospective randomized data with respect to the relationship between estrogen use and cardiovascular disease. The need to validate surrogate markers of SERM action is discussed in relation to bone but is clearly relevant to all disease sites. The semantics used in describing SERM action as agonistic or antagonistic in relation to estrogen at various target sites has been inconsistent, especially in the clinical context. We attempt to dissect out some of the inconsistencies in semantics in the hope that this will contribute to improved communication of data resulting from SERM research. In the clinical arena, we begin with the premise that the large, simple randomized trial offers the optimal design for the testing of SERMs. In view of limited resources, however, we counter this position with alternative, if less desirable, approaches to the clinical format for SERM testing. Finally, we explore the process by which statistically meaningful results from clinical trials are extrapolated into the specific drug indications that apply to clinical practice.

A randomized, prospective evaluation of noninvasive ventilation for acute respiratory failure.

We compared noninvasive positive-pressure ventilation (NPPV), using bilevel positive airway pressure, with usual medical care (UMC) in the therapy of patients with acute respiratory failure (ARF) in a prospective, randomized trial. Patients were subgrouped according to the disease leading to ARF (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], a non-COPD-related pulmonary process, neuromuscular disease, and status postextubation), and were then randomized to NPPV or UMC. Thirty-two patients were evaluated in the NPPV group and 29 in the UMC group. The rate of endotracheal intubation (ETI) was significantly lower in the NPPV than in the UMC group (6.38 intubations versus 21.25 intubations per 100 ICU days, p = 0.002). Mortality rates in the intensive care unit (ICU) were similar for the two treatment groups (2.39 deaths versus 4.27 deaths per 100 ICU days, p = 0.21, NPPV versus UMC, respectively). Patients with hypoxemic ARF in the NPPV group had a significantly lower ETI rate than those in the UMC group (7.46 intubations versus 22.64 intubations per 100 ICU days, p = 0.026); a similar trend was noted for patients with hypercapnic ARF (5.41 intubations versus 18.52 intubations per 100 ICU days, p = 0.064, NPPV versus UMC, respectively). Patients with ARF in the non-COPD category had a lower rate of ETI with NPPV than with UMC (8.45 intubations versus 30.30 intubations per 100 ICU days, p = 0.01). Although the rate of ETI was lower among COPD patients receiving NPPV, this trend did not reach statistical significance (5.26 intubations versus 15.63 intubations per 100 ICU days, p = 0.12, NPPV versus UMC, respectively). In conclusion, NPPV with bilevel positive airway pressure reduces the rate of ETI in patients with ARF of various etiologies.

Weighing the risks and benefits of tamoxifen treatment for preventing breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: In response to findings from the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial that tamoxifen treatment produced a 49% reduction in the risk of invasive breast cancer in a population of women at elevated risk, the National Cancer Institute sponsored a workshop on July 7 and 8, 1998, to develop information to assist in counseling and in weighing the risks and benefits of tamoxifen. Our study was undertaken to develop tools to identify women for whom the benefits outweigh the risks. METHODS: Information was reviewed on the incidence of invasive breast cancer and of in situ lesions, as well as on several other health outcomes, in the absence of tamoxifen treatment. Data on the effects of tamoxifen on these outcomes were also reviewed, and methods were developed to compare the risks and benefits of tamoxifen. RESULTS: The risks and benefits of tamoxifen depend on age and race, as well as on a woman's specific risk factors for breast cancer. In particular, the absolute risks from tamoxifen of endometrial cancer, stroke, pulmonary embolism, and deep vein thrombosis increase with age, and these absolute risks differ between white and black women, as does the protective effect of tamoxifen on fractures. Tables and aids are developed to describe the risks and benefits of tamoxifen and to identify classes of women for whom the benefits outweigh the risks. CONCLUSIONS: Tamoxifen is most beneficial for younger women with an elevated risk of breast cancer. The quantitative analyses presented can assist health care providers and women in weighing the risks and benefits of tamoxifen for reducing breast cancer risk.

Health-related quality of life and tamoxifen in breast cancer prevention: a report from the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project P-1 Study.

PURPOSE: This is the initial report from the health-related quality of life (HRQL) component of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project Breast Cancer Prevention Trial. This report provides an overview of HRQL findings, comparing tamoxifen and placebo groups, and advice to clinicians counseling women about the use of tamoxifen in a prevention setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This report covers the baseline and the first 36 months of follow-up data on 11,064 women recruited over the first 24 months of the study. Findings are presented from the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D), the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Status Survey (MOS SF-36) and sexual functioning scale, and a symptom checklist. RESULTS: No differences were found between placebo and tamoxifen groups for the proportion of participants scoring above a clinically significant level on the CES-D. No differences were found between groups for the MOS SF-36 summary physical and mental scores. The mean number of symptoms reported was consistently higher in the tamoxifen group and was associated with vasomotor and gynecologic symptoms. Significant increases were found in the proportion of women on tamoxifen reporting problems of sexual functioning at a definite or serious level, although overall rates of sexual activity remained similar. CONCLUSION: Women need to be informed of the increased frequency of vasomotor and gynecologic symptoms and problems of sexual functioning associated with tamoxifen use. Weight gain and depression, two clinical problems anecdotally associated with tamoxifen treatment, were not increased in frequency in this trial in healthy women, which is good news that also needs to be communicated.

Validation studies for models projecting the risk of invasive and total breast cancer incidence.

BACKGROUND: In 1989, Gail and colleagues developed a model for estimating the risk of breast cancer in women participating in a program of annual mammographic screening (designated herein as model 1). A modification of this model to project the absolute risk of developing only invasive breast cancer is referred to herein as model 2. We assessed the validity of both models by employing data from women enrolled in the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial. METHODS: We used data from 5969 white women who were at least 35 years of age and without a history of breast cancer. These women were in the placebo arm of the trial and were screened annually. The average follow-up period was 48.4 months. We compared the observed number of breast cancers with the predicted numbers from the models. RESULTS: In terms of absolute risk, the ratios of total expected to observed numbers of cancers (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) were 0.84 (0. 73-0.97) for model 1 and 1.03 (0.88-1.21) for model 2, respectively. Within the age groups of 49 years or less, 50-59 years, and 60 years or more, the ratios of expected to observed numbers of breast cancers (95% CIs) for model 1 were 0.91 (0.73-1.14), 0.96 (0.73-1. 28), and 0.66 (0.52-0.86), respectively. Thus, model 1 underestimated breast cancer risk in women more than 59 years of age. For model 2, the risk ratios (95% CIs) were 0.93 (0.72-1.22), 1.13 (0.83-1.55), and 1.05 (0.80-1.41), respectively. Both models exhibited a tendency to overestimate risk for women classified in the higher quintiles of predicted 5-year risk and to underestimate risk for those in the lower quintiles of the same. CONCLUSION: Despite some limitations, these methods provide useful information on breast cancer risk for women who plan to participate in an annual mammographic screening program.

Issues and findings in the evaluation of occupational risk among women high nickel alloys workers.

BACKGROUND: We present the mortality experience for a cohort of women (n = 2,877) from a large epidemiologic study of production and fabrication high nickel alloys workers (n = 31,165). All the plants were located within the United States and cohort eligibility required some work experience within the period of the late 1940s through the mid 1960s. METHODS: Vital status follow-up was through the end of 1988 and incorporated information from multiple sources. Cause-specific mortality was evaluated by comparing cohort mortality to the general United States female population and to local populations in geographic proximity to the plants. Relative risk estimates were determined for 62 cause of death categories using the Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) and were adjusted for age, race, gender, and calendar time by the indirect method using a modified life table technique. RESULTS: Relative risks for all causes (0.98), all cancers (0.90), lung cancer (1.34), and breast cancer (0.96) were nonsignificant when mortality was compared to the US female population. No relationship between mortality and length of time employed in the industry or work area was identified. DISCUSSION: Although there were some difficulties in tracing women due to name changes, comprehensive follow-up was obtained when using multiple sources of information. Our strategy resulted in resolving vital status for over 95% of the women, which is comparable to that of the male cohort. The type of jobs and work activities differed between genders. Females were employed predominantly in two work areas (allocated services, 87%, and grinding, 46%), whereas males were employed in several work areas (allocated services, 76%, grinding, 27%, hot working, 20%, and cold working, 17%). Considerable variation was noted among the study plants with respect to the percent of female production workers in the workforce. Generally, the patterns of relative risks derived for the total cohort and various subgroups are similar across the different comparison populations. Estimated elevated risks are usually lower when cohort mortality is compared to that of local populations. No increased risks were identified for any site-specific cancers or nonmalignant causes of death.

Using alternative comparison populations to assess occupation-related mortality risk. Results for the high nickel alloys workers cohort.

The focus of this article is to examine how the choice of comparison group affects the identification and interpretation of cause-specific health risks in occupational cohorts when different external control populations are used. The mortality experience of approximately 31,000 high nickel alloys workers is compared with the total US population and to local populations in geographic proximity to the plants. Generally, the patterns of relative risks derived for the total cohort and various subgroups are similar across the different comparison populations. Estimated elevated risks are usually lower when cohort mortality is compared with that of local populations. An overall significant 13% risk for lung cancer is noted when compared with that of the total US population. However, no significant excess is identified when local populations are used. Subset analysis identified significant excesses of colon cancer among nonwhite males (50%-150%) and kidney cancer among white male workers employed in melting (approximately 100%), irrespective of the comparison population.

Tamoxifen for prevention of breast cancer: report of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project P-1 Study.

BACKGROUND: The finding of a decrease in contralateral breast cancer incidence following tamoxifen administration for adjuvant therapy led to the concept that the drug might play a role in breast cancer prevention. To test this hypothesis, the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project initiated the Breast Cancer Prevention Trial (P-1) in 1992. METHODS: Women (N=13388) at increased risk for breast cancer because they 1) were 60 years of age or older, 2) were 35-59 years of age with a 5-year predicted risk for breast cancer of at least 1.66%, or 3) had a history of lobular carcinoma in situ were randomly assigned to receive placebo (n=6707) or 20 mg/day tamoxifen (n=6681) for 5 years. Gail's algorithm, based on a multivariate logistic regression model using combinations of risk factors, was used to estimate the probability (risk) of occurrence of breast cancer over time. RESULTS: Tamoxifen reduced the risk of invasive breast cancer by 49% (two-sided P<.00001), with cumulative incidence through 69 months of follow-up of 43.4 versus 22.0 per 1000 women in the placebo and tamoxifen groups, respectively. The decreased risk occurred in women aged 49 years or younger (44%), 50-59 years (51%), and 60 years or older (55%); risk was also reduced in women with a history of lobular carcinoma in situ (56%) or atypical hyperplasia (86%) and in those with any category of predicted 5-year risk. Tamoxifen reduced the risk of noninvasive breast cancer by 50% (two-sided P<.002). Tamoxifen reduced the occurrence of estrogen receptor-positive tumors by 69%, but no difference in the occurrence of estrogen receptor-negative tumors was seen. Tamoxifen administration did not alter the average annual rate of ischemic heart disease; however, a reduction in hip, radius (Colles'), and spine fractures was observed. The rate of endometrial cancer was increased in the tamoxifen group (risk ratio = 2.53; 95% confidence interval = 1.35-4.97); this increased risk occurred predominantly in women aged 50 years or older. All endometrial cancers in the tamoxifen group were stage I (localized disease); no endometrial cancer deaths have occurred in this group. No liver cancers or increase in colon, rectal, ovarian, or other tumors was observed in the tamoxifen group. The rates of stroke, pulmonary embolism, and deep-vein thrombosis were elevated in the tamoxifen group; these events occurred more frequently in women aged 50 years or older. CONCLUSIONS: Tamoxifen decreases the incidence of invasive and noninvasive breast cancer. Despite side effects resulting from administration of tamoxifen, its use as a breast cancer preventive agent is appropriate in many women at increased risk for the disease.

Epidemiology of homicide in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, between 1966-1974 and 1984-1993.

BACKGROUND: We compared homicide death rates and characteristics of homicide victims and perpetrators in 1966-1974, 1984-1990, 1992-1993, and 1996 in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, in an attempt to detect possible differences in the pattern of homicides. METHODS: Data were obtained from death certificates, coroner's records, police reports and newspapers. RESULTS: In the 1990s the homicide death rate increased for 15- to 24-year-old black men. The rate was 69 per 100,000/year for black men ages 15-24 years from 1966 to 1974 and rose to 275 per 100,000 from 1992 to 1993. Currently, the rates appear to be declining again. Preliminary data from 1996 showed the number of homicide deaths excluding vehicular homicides between 1993 and 1996 to decline from 19 to 8 for white men, from 70 to 42 for black men, from 9 to 3 for white women, and from 13 to 6 for black women with little change in the population (denominator). The dramatic drop from 111 to 61 deaths over a short time is similar to changes across the United State and is characteristic of epidemic rise and fall of homicides in the community. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1966 and 1993 Allegheny County experienced two separate homicide epidemics, one between 1966 and 1976 and the other between 1990 and 1993. Epidemics of homicide occur frequently and have different characteristics. New characteristics of the most recent epidemic of homicide include more homicides out of home, among strangers; less association with alcohol; and multiple perpetrators. Drug-use-associated homicides have also increased. Guns are the primary agents of homicide epidemics.

Long-term tamoxifen citrate use and potential ocular toxicity.

PURPOSE: To estimate the prevalence of abnormalities in visual function and ocular structures associated with the long-term use of tamoxifen citrate. METHODS: A single-masked, cross-sectional study involving multiple community and institutional ophthalmologic departments was conducted with a volunteer sample of 303 women with breast cancer currently taking part in a randomized clinical trial to determine the efficacy of tamoxifen (20 mg/day) in preventing recurrences. Participants included women who had never been on drug (n=85); women who had taken tamoxifen for an average of 4.8 years, then been off the drug for an average of 2.7 years (n=140); and women who had been on tamoxifen continuously for an average of 7.8 years (n=78). Women were evaluated by questionnaire, psychophysical testing, and clinical examination to determine any abnormalities in visual function and the comparative prevalences of corneal, lens, retinal, and optic nerve pathology. RESULTS: There were no cases of vision-threatening ocular toxicity among the tamoxifen-treated participants. Compared with nontreated participants, the tamoxifen-treated women had no differences in the activities of daily vision, visual acuity measurements, or other tests of visual function except for color screening. Intraretinal crystals (odds ratio [OR]=3.58, P=.178) and posterior subcapsular opacities (OR=4.03, P=.034) were more frequent in the tamoxifen-treated group. CONCLUSIONS: Women should have a thorough baseline ophthalmic evaluation within the first year of initiating tamoxifen therapy and receive appropriate follow-up evaluations.

S-phase fraction combined with other patient and tumor characteristics for the prognosis of node-negative, estrogen-receptor-positive breast cancer.

Women with estrogen-receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer and no axillary lymph-node involvement are considered to have excellent overall prognosis. However, this population is not homogeneous with regard to risk of recurrence; in fact, some of these patients have a prognosis no better than that of many women with ER-negative tumors or positive axillary nodes. Consequently, better tumor markers and better use of those currently available are needed to distinguish patients who would benefit from more aggressive therapy from those for whom such therapy is unnecessary. A well-defined cohort of over 4000 breast cancer patients from National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP) Protocol B-14 who had ER-positive tumors and no axillary lymph-node involvement was analyzed to ascertain the usefulness of tumor cell S-phase fraction for prognosis. The significance of clinical tumor size, patient age at surgery, ER and progesterone receptor (PgR) expression, and nuclear grade was also explored. Statistical methods based on smoothing splines were used to relate treatment failure and mortality rates to patient and tumor characteristics. Models for 5- and 10-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival were developed and summarized. The attenuation of the prognostic importance of covariates over time was investigated. After other characteristics were accounted for, a strong association was found between S-phase fraction and DFS, as well as survival. Tumor size, patient age at surgery, and PgR status were also significantly associated with outcome. The diversity of risk in the B-14 population was more extreme than is generally recognized. The prognostic capabilities of S-phase, tumor size, and PgR status were sharply attenuated as the time from surgery increased.

Thyroid function and perimenopausal lipid and weight changes: the Thyroid Study in Healthy Women (TSH-W).

We designed a prospective observational trial to study the relationship of thyroid function to cholesterol and weight changes at menopause. Subjects were participants in the ongoing Healthy Women Study, a prospective study of cardiovascular risk factor change through menopause. Healthy premenopausal women were recruited from a random sample of licensed drivers in selected ZIP codes of Allegheny County, Pennsylvania. Participants had to be 42-50 years of age, have menstruated within the last 3 months, not have had surgical menopause, have diastolic blood pressure < 100 mm Hg, and not be taking medications (including insulin, estrogen, lipid-lowering drugs, or thyroid or antihypertensive medications) at the baseline examination. The substudy included three groups of women who were premenopausal at baseline and were categorized according to change noted at follow-up regarding menopausal status and use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT). The groups comprised 95 women who remained premenopausal, 96 postmenopausal women not on HRT, and 61 postmenopausal women using HRT. The main outcome measures were baseline and follow-up measurements for serum levels of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), thyroid peroxidase, and thyroglobulin, as well as serum cholesterol, total high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, and calculated low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, height, and weight. Covariates included cigarette smoking and alcohol intake. The prevalence of thyroid antibodies in this healthy population was high at both time points (range 27%-31%) and did not differ by menopausal status. The presence of thyroid antibodies was associated with increased TSH concentration. Women with antibodies at both time points had lower levels of total and LDL cholesterol compared with those with no antibodies, significant only for those women who remained premenopausal during the follow-up period. Thyroid function during menopause in this healthy population is unlikely to account for the observed changes in levels of serum lipoprotein and body weight. The presence of thyroid antibodies may be associated with lower total and LDL cholesterol, possibly through an underlying inflammatory disorder.

Prognosis among African-American women and white women with lymph node negative breast carcinoma: findings from two randomized clinical trials of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP).

BACKGROUND: A disparity in breast carcinoma survival between African-American and white women has been noted over the past several decades. A major factor implicated in this disparity is stage of disease at diagnosis. In this study, survival and related endpoints were examined among African-American women and white women with lymph node negative breast carcinoma who participated in two randomized clinical trials of the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel Project (NSABP). METHODS: Patients from two studies, one conducted among patients with estrogen receptor (ER) negative tumors and the other among patients with ER positive tumors, were included. Study goals were to determine whether African-Americans and whites had comparable outcomes, accounting for ER status and differences in patient characteristics at diagnosis, and to determine whether treatment response was similar for African-Americans and whites. RESULTS: Five-year survival rates were 83% for African-Americans and 85% for whites among ER negative patients, and 93% for African-Americans and 92% for whites among ER positive patients. Rates of disease free survival (DFS) (i.e., time to disease recurrence, second primary cancer, or death) were 71% for African-Americans and 74% for whites at 5 years among ER negative patients, and 81% for African-Americans and 80% for whites among ER positive patients. African-Americans tended to have less favorable baseline prognostic characteristics. Adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates indicated similar prognosis for African-Americans compared with whites for mortality (African-American/white RR = 1.02 with 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-1.56 among ER negative patients; RR = 1.14 with 95% CI, 0.84-1.54 among ER positive patients) and DFS (RR = 0.98 with 95% CI, 0.70-1.37 for ER negative patients; RR = 0.96 with 95% CI, 0.75-1.22 for ER positive patients). Estimated percent reductions in DFS events for patients receiving adjuvant therapy were 32% for ER negative African-Americans, 36% for ER negative whites, 20% for ER positive African-Americans, and 39% for ER positive whites. CONCLUSIONS: African-American and white patients with localized breast carcinoma had similar outcomes and benefited equally from systemic therapy. These results suggest that early detection and appropriate therapy among African-American patients could result in a reduction in the current disparity in breast carcinoma mortality between African-Americans and whites.