Patient portal registration and healthcare utilisation in general practices in England: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Patient portals introduced in most of England's general practices since 2015 have the potential to improve healthcare efficiency. There is a paucity of information on the use of patient portals within the NHS general practices and the potential impact on healthcare utilisation. AIM: To investigate the association between patient portal registration and care utilisation (measured by the number of general practice consultations) among general practice patients. DESIGN & SETTING: A longitudinal analysis using electronic health record data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). METHOD: We analysed patients registered for patient portals (n = 284 666), aggregating their consultations 1 year before and 1 year after registration. We ran a multilevel negative binomial regression model to examine patient portal registration's association with face-to-face and remote consultations. RESULTS: Patients who registered to the portal had a small decrease in the total number of face-to-face consultations after registering to the patient portal (incidence rate ratio = 0.93, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.93 to 0.94). Patients who registered to the portal had an increase in the total number of remote consultations after registering to the portal (incidence rate ratio = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.15 to 1.18). CONCLUSION: The study found minor changes in consultation numbers post-patient portal registration, notably with an increase in remote consultations. While causality between portal registration and consultation number remains unclear, the potential link between patient portal use and healthcare utilisation warrants further investigation, especially within the NHS, where portal impacts are not well-studied. Detailed portal utilisation data could clarify this relationship.

Attendance at remote versus in-person outpatient appointments in an NHS Trust.

INTRODUCTION: With the growing use of remote appointments within the National Health Service, there is a need to understand potential barriers of access to care for some patients. In this observational study, we examined missed appointments rates, comparing remote and in-person appointments among different patient groups. METHODS: We analysed adult outpatient appointments at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust in Northwest London in 2021. Rates of missed appointments per patient were compared between remote versus in-person appointments using negative binomial regression models. Models were stratified by appointment type (first or a follow-up). RESULTS: There were 874,659 outpatient appointments for 189,882 patients, 29.5% of whom missed at least one appointment. Missed rates were 12.5% for remote first appointments and 9.2% for in-person first appointments. Remote and in-person follow-up appointments were missed at similar rates (10.4% and 10.7%, respectively). For remote and in-person appointments, younger patients, residents of more deprived areas, and patients of Black, Mixed and 'other' ethnicities missed more appointments. Male patients missed more in-person appointments, particularly at younger ages, but gender differences were minimal for remote appointments. Patients with long-term conditions (LTCs) missed more first appointments, whether in-person or remote. In follow-up appointments, patients with LTCs missed more in-person appointments but fewer remote appointments. DISCUSSION: Remote first appointments were missed more often than in-person first appointments, follow-up appointments had similar attendance rates for both modalities. Sociodemographic differences in outpatient appointment attendance were largely similar between in-person and remote appointments, indicating no widening of inequalities in attendance due to appointment modality.

Uptake and adoption of the NHS App in England: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Technological advances have led to the use of patient portals that give people digital access to their personal health information. The NHS App was launched in January 2019 as a 'front door' to digitally enabled health services. AIM: To evaluate patterns of uptake of the NHS App, subgroup differences in registration, and the impact of COVID-19. DESIGN AND SETTING: An observational study using monthly NHS App user data at general-practice level in England was conducted. METHOD: Descriptive statistics and time-series analysis explored monthly NHS App use from January 2019-May 2021. Interrupted time-series models were used to identify changes in the level and trend of use of different functionalities, before and after the first COVID-19 lockdown. Negative binomial regression assessed differences in app registration by markers of general-practice level sociodemographic variables. RESULT: Between January 2019 and May 2021, there were 8 524 882 NHS App downloads and 4 449 869 registrations, with a 4-fold increase in App downloads when the COVID Pass feature was introduced. Analyses by sociodemographic data found 25% lower registrations in the most deprived practices (P<0.001), and 44% more registrations in the largest sized practices (P<0.001). Registration rates were 36% higher in practices with the highest proportion of registered White patients (P<0.001), 23% higher in practices with the largest proportion of 15-34-year-olds (P<0.001) and 2% lower in practices with highest proportion of people with long-term care needs (P<0.001). CONCLUSION: The uptake of the NHS App substantially increased post-lockdown, most significantly after the NHS COVID Pass feature was introduced. An unequal pattern of app registration was identified, and the use of different functions varied. Further research is needed to understand these patterns of inequalities and their impact on patient experience.

Cross-sectional analyses of online appointment booking and repeat prescription ordering user characteristics in general practices of England in the years 2018-2020.

OBJECTIVES: To explore the characteristics of the General Practice Patient Survey (GPPS) respondents using the different functionalities of the online services in the context of England's National Health Service General Practices. We hypothesised that respondents who are older, with lower socioeconomic status and non-white ethnicity would be less likely to use online services, while long-term conditions might increase their usage. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study using respondent-level data from the GPPS in England of the years 2018, 2019 and 2020. We assessed the association between online services use and respondent characteristics using two-level mixed-effects logistic regression. PARTICIPANTS: Survey respondents of the GPPS 2018-2020. PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Online appointment booking and online repeat prescription ordering. RESULTS: 1 807 049 survey respondents were included in this study. 15% (n=263 938) used online appointment booking in the previous 12 months, and 19% (n=339 449) had ordered a repeat prescription in the previous 12 months. Respondents with a long-term condition, on regular multiple medications, who have deafness or hearing loss and who are from the lowest deprivation quintile were more likely to have used online services. Male respondents (compared with females) and respondents with black and other ethnicity compared with white ethnicity were less likely to use online services. Respondents over 85 years old were less likely to use online appointment booking and online repeat prescription ordering compared with the younger age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Specific groups of respondents were more likely to use online services such as patients with long-term conditions or those with deafness or hearing loss. While online services could provide efficiency to patients and practices it is essential that alternatives continue to be provided to those that cannot use or choose not to use online services. Understanding the different patients' needs could inform solutions to increase the uptake and use of the services.

The impact of atypical intrahospital transfers on patient outcomes: a mixed methods study.

The architectural design of hospitals worldwide is centred around individual departments, which require the movement of patients between wards. However, patients do not always take the simplest route from admission to discharge, but can experience convoluted movement patterns, particularly when bed availability is low. Few studies have explored the impact of these rarer, atypical trajectories. Using a mixed-method explanatory sequential study design, we firstly used three continuous years of electronic health record data prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, from 55,152 patients admitted to a London hospital network to define the ward specialities by patient type using the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. We explored the impact of 'regular transfers' between pairs of wards with shared specialities, 'atypical transfers' between pairs of wards with no shared specialities and 'site transfers' between pairs of wards in different hospital site locations, on length of stay, 30-day readmission and mortality. Secondly, to understand the possible reasons behind atypical transfers we conducted three focus groups and three in-depth interviews with site nurse practitioners and bed managers within the same hospital network. We found that at least one atypical transfer was experienced by 12.9% of patients. Each atypical transfer is associated with a larger increase in length of stay, 2.84 days (95% CI 2.56-3.12), compared to regular transfers, 1.92 days (95% CI 1.82-2.03). No association was found between odds of mortality, or 30-day readmission and atypical transfers after adjusting for confounders. Atypical transfers appear to be driven by complex patient conditions, a lack of hospital capacity, the need to reach specific services and facilities, and more exceptionally, rare events such as major incidents. Our work provides an important first step in identifying unusual patient movement and its impacts on key patient outcomes using a system-wide, data-driven approach. The broader impact of moving patients between hospital wards, and possible downstream effects should be considered in hospital policy and service planning.

Prevalence of electronic screening for sepsis in National Health Service acute hospitals in England.

Sepsis is a worldwide public health problem. Rapid identification is associated with improved patient outcomes-if followed by timely appropriate treatment. OBJECTIVES: Describe digital sepsis alerts (DSAs) in use in English National Health Service (NHS) acute hospitals. METHODS: A Freedom of Information request surveyed acute NHS Trusts on their adoption of electronic patient records (EPRs) and DSAs. RESULTS: Of the 99 Trusts that responded, 84 had an EPR. Over 20 different EPR system providers were identified as operational in England. The most common providers were Cerner (21%). System C, Dedalus and Allscripts Sunrise were also relatively common (13%, 10% and 7%, respectively). 70% of NHS Trusts with an EPR responded that they had a DSA; most of these use the National Early Warning Score (NEWS2). There was evidence that the EPR provider was related to the DSA algorithm. We found no evidence that Trusts were using EPRs to introduce data driven algorithms or DSAs able to include, for example, pre-existing conditions that may be known to increase risk.Not all Trusts were willing or able to provide details of their EPR or the underlying algorithm. DISCUSSION: The majority of NHS Trusts use an EPR of some kind; many use a NEWS2-based DSA in keeping with national guidelines. CONCLUSION: Many English NHS Trusts use DSAs; even those using similar triggers vary and many recreate paper systems. Despite the proliferation of machine learning algorithms being developed to support early detection of sepsis, there is little evidence that these are being used to improve personalised sepsis detection.

Implementing antibiotic stewardship in high-prescribing English general practices: a mixed-methods study.

BACKGROUND: Trials have identified antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) strategies that effectively reduce antibiotic use in primary care. However, many are not commonly used in England. The authors co-developed an implementation intervention to improve use of three AMS strategies: enhanced communication strategies, delayed prescriptions, and point-of-care C-reactive protein tests (POC-CRPTs). AIM: To investigate the use of the intervention in high-prescribing practices and its effect on antibiotic prescribing. DESIGN AND SETTING: Nine high-prescribing practices had access to the intervention for 12 months from November 2019. This was primarily delivered remotely via a website with practices required to identify an 'antibiotic champion'. METHOD: Routinely collected prescribing data were compared between the intervention and the control practices. Intervention use was assessed through monitoring. Surveys and interviews were conducted with professionals to capture experiences of using the intervention. RESULTS: There was no evidence that the intervention affected prescribing. Engagement with intervention materials differed substantially between practices and depended on individual champions' preconceptions of strategies and the opportunity to conduct implementation tasks. Champions in five practices initiated changes to encourage use of at least one AMS strategy, mostly POC-CRPTs; one practice chose all three. POC-CRPTs was used more when allocated to one person. CONCLUSION: Clinicians need detailed information on exactly how to adopt AMS strategies. Remote, one-sided provision of AMS strategies is unlikely to change prescribing; initial clinician engagement and understanding needs to be monitored to avoid misunderstanding and suboptimal use.

Retrospective analysis of North West London healthcare utilisation by children during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of the measures taken to combat COVID-19 on the patterns of acute illness in children presenting to primary and secondary care for North West London. DESIGN/SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective analysis of 8 309 358 primary and secondary healthcare episodes of children <16 years registered with a North West London primary care practice between 2015 and 2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of primary care consultations, emergency department (ED) attendances and emergency admissions during the pandemic were compared with those in the preceding 5 years. Trends were examined by age and for International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision-coded diagnoses of: infectious diseases, and injuries and poisonings for admitted children. RESULTS: Comparing 2020 to the 2015-2019 mean, primary care consultations were 22% lower, ED attendances were 38% lower and admissions 35% lower. Following the first national lockdown in April 2020, primary care consultations were 39% lower compared with the April 2015-2019 mean, ED attendances were 72% lower and unscheduled hospital admissions were 63% lower. Admissions >48 hours were on average 13% lower overall during 2020, and 36% lower during April 2020. The reduction in admissions for infections (61% lower than 2015-2019 mean) between April and August 2020 was greater than for injuries (31% lower). CONCLUSION: The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with an overall reduction in childhood illness presentations to health services in North West London, most prominent during periods of national lockdown, and with a greater impact on infections than injuries. These reductions demonstrate the impact on children of measures taken to combat COVID-19 across the health system.

Variation in global COVID-19 symptoms by geography and by chronic disease: A global survey using the COVID-19 Symptom Mapper.

Background: COVID-19 is typically characterised by a triad of symptoms: cough, fever and loss of taste and smell, however, this varies globally. This study examines variations in COVID-19 symptom profiles based on underlying chronic disease and geographical location. Methods: Using a global online symptom survey of 78,299 responders in 190 countries between 09/04/2020 and 22/09/2020, we conducted an exploratory study to examine symptom profiles associated with a positive COVID-19 test result by country and underlying chronic disease (single, co- or multi-morbidities) using statistical and machine learning methods. Findings: From the results of 7980 COVID-19 tested positive responders, we find that symptom patterns differ by country. For example, India reported a lower proportion of headache (22.8% vs 47.8%, p<1e-13) and itchy eyes (7.3% vs. 16.5%, p=2e-8) than other countries. As with geographic location, we find people differed in their reported symptoms if they suffered from specific chronic diseases. For example, COVID-19 positive responders with asthma (25.3% vs. 13.7%, p=7e-6) were more likely to report shortness of breath compared to those with no underlying chronic disease. Interpretation: We have identified variation in COVID-19 symptom profiles depending on geographic location and underlying chronic disease. Failure to reflect this symptom variation in public health messaging may contribute to asymptomatic COVID-19 spread and put patients with chronic diseases at a greater risk of infection. Future work should focus on symptom profile variation in the emerging variants of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. This is crucial to speed up clinical diagnosis, predict prognostic outcomes and target treatment. Funding: We acknowledge funding to AAF by a UKRI Turing AI Fellowship and to CEC by a personal NIHR Career Development Fellowship (grant number NIHR-2016-090-015). JKQ has received grants from The Health Foundation, MRC, GSK, Bayer, BI, Asthma UK-British Lung Foundation, IQVIA, Chiesi AZ, and Insmed. This work is supported by BREATHE - The Health Data Research Hub for Respiratory Health [MC_PC_19004]. BREATHE is funded through the UK Research and Innovation Industrial Strategy Challenge Fund and delivered through Health Data Research UK. Imperial College London is grateful for the support from the Northwest London NIHR Applied Research Collaboration. The views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care.

Bacterial genotypic and patient risk factors for adverse outcomes in Escherichia coli bloodstream infections: a prospective molecular epidemiological study.

OBJECTIVES: Escherichia coli bloodstream infections have shown a sustained increase in England, for reasons that are unknown. Furthermore, the contribution of MDR lineages such as ST131 to overall E. coli disease burden and outcome is undetermined. METHODS: We genome-sequenced E. coli blood isolates from all patients with E. coli bacteraemia in north-west London from July 2015 to August 2016 and assigned MLST genotypes, virulence factors and AMR genes to all isolates. Isolate STs were then linked to phenotypic antimicrobial susceptibility, patient demographics and clinical outcome data to explore relationships between the E. coli STs, patient factors and outcomes. RESULTS: A total of 551 E. coli genomes were analysed. Four STs (ST131, 21.2%; ST73, 14.5%; ST69, 9.3%; and ST95, 8.2%) accounted for over half of cases. E. coli genotype ST131-C2 was associated with phenotypic non-susceptibility to quinolones, third-generation cephalosporins, amoxicillin, amoxicillin/clavulanic acid, gentamicin and trimethoprim. Among 300 patients from whom outcome was known, an association between the ST131-C2 lineage and longer length of stay was detected, although multivariable regression modelling did not demonstrate an association between E. coli ST and mortality. Several unexpected associations were identified between gentamicin non-susceptibility, ethnicity, sex and adverse outcomes, requiring further research. CONCLUSIONS: Although E. coli ST was associated with defined antimicrobial non-susceptibility patterns and prolonged length of stay, E. coli ST was not associated with increased mortality. ST131 has outcompeted other lineages in north-west London. Where ST131 is prevalent, caution is required when devising empiric regimens for suspected Gram-negative sepsis, in particular the pairing of ß-lactam agents with gentamicin.

Comparing the longer-term effectiveness of a single dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines across the age spectrum.

Background: A single dose strategy may be adequate to confer population level immunity and protection against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, especially in low- and middle-income countries where vaccine supply remains limited. We compared the effectiveness of a single dose strategy of the Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection across all age groups and over an extended follow-up period. Methods: Individuals vaccinated in North-West London, UK, with either the first dose of the Oxford-AstraZeneca or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines between January 12, 2021 and March 09, 2021, were matched to each other by demographic and clinical characteristics. Each vaccinated individual was additionally matched to an unvaccinated control. Study outcomes included SARS-CoV-2 infection of any severity, COVID-19 hospitalisation, COVID-19 death, and all-cause mortality. Findings: Amongst matched individuals, 63,608 were in each of the vaccine groups and 127,216 were unvaccinated. Between 14 and 84 days of follow-up after matching, there were 534 SARS-CoV-2 infections, 65 COVID-19 hospitalisations, and 190 deaths, of which 29 were categorized as due to COVID-19. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) for SARS-CoV-2 infection was 0.85 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69 to 1.05) for Oxford-Astra-Zeneca, and 0.69 (0.55 to 0.86) for Pfizer-BioNTech. The IRR for both vaccines was the same at 0.25 (0.09 to 0.55) and 0.14 (0.02 to 0.58) for reducing COVID-19 hospitalization and COVID-19 mortality, respectively. The IRR for all-cause mortality was 0.25 (0.15 to 0.39) and 0.18 (0.10 to 0.30) for the Oxford-Astra-Zeneca and Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines, respectively. Age was an effect modifier of the association between vaccination and SARS-CoV-2 infection of any severity; lower hazard ratios for increasing age. Interpretation: A single dose strategy, for both vaccines, was effective at reducing COVID-19 mortality and hospitalization rates. The magnitude of vaccine effectiveness was comparatively lower for SARS-CoV-2 infection, although this was variable across the age range, with higher effectiveness seen with older adults. Our results have important implications for health system planning -especially in low resource settings where vaccine supply remains constrained.

Identifying local authority need for, and uptake of, school-based physical activity promotion in England-a cluster analysis.

BACKGROUND: School-based physical activity interventions such as The Daily Mile (TDM) are widely promoted in children's physical activity guidance. However, targeting such interventions to areas of greatest need is challenging since determinants vary across geographical areas. Our study aimed to identify local authorities in England with the greatest need to increase children's physical activity and assess whether TDM reaches school populations in areas with the highest need. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using routinely collected data from Public Health England. Datasets on health, census and the built environment were linked. We conducted a hierarchical cluster analysis to group local authorities by 'need' and estimated the association between 'need' and registration to TDM. RESULTS: We identified three clusters of high, medium and low need for physical activity interventions in 123 local authorities. Schools in high-need areas were more likely to be registered with TDM (incidence rate ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval: 1.12-1.39) compared with low-need areas. CONCLUSIONS: Determinants of children's physical activity cluster geographically across local authorities in England. TDM appears to be an equitable intervention reaching schools in local authorities with the highest needs. Health policy should account for clustering of health determinants to match interventions with populations most in need.

Global health systems' data science approach for precision diagnosis of sepsis in early life.

Neonates and children in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) contribute to the highest number of sepsis-associated deaths globally. Interventions to prevent sepsis mortality are hampered by a lack of comprehensive epidemiological data and pathophysiological understanding of biological pathways. In this review, we discuss the challenges faced by LMICs in diagnosing sepsis in these age groups. We highlight a role for multi-omics and health care data to improve diagnostic accuracy of clinical algorithms, arguing that health-care systems urgently need precision medicine to avoid the pitfalls of missed diagnoses, misdiagnoses, and overdiagnoses, and associated antimicrobial resistance. We discuss ethical, regulatory, and systemic barriers related to the collection and use of big data in LMICs. Technologies such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and medical tricorders might help, but they require collaboration with local communities. Co-partnering (joint equal development of technology between producer and end-users) could facilitate integration of these technologies as part of future care-delivery systems, offering a chance to transform the global management and prevention of sepsis for neonates and children.

Exploring temporal trends and risk factors for resistance in Escherichia coli-causing bacteraemia in England between 2013 and 2018: an ecological study.

BACKGROUND: Escherichia coli are Gram-negative bacteria associated with an increasing burden of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in England. OBJECTIVES: To create a comprehensive epidemiological picture of E. coli bacteraemia resistance trends and risk factors in England by linking national microbiology data sources and performing a longitudinal analysis of rates. METHODS: A retrospective observational study was conducted on all national records for antimicrobial susceptibility testing on E. coli bacteraemia in England from 1 January 2013 to 31 December 2018 from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) and the BSAC Resistance Surveillance Programme (BSAC-RSP). Trends in AMR and MDR were estimated using iterative sequential regression. Logistic regression analyses were performed on UKHSA data to estimate the relationship between risk factors and AMR or MDR in E. coli bacteraemia isolates. RESULTS: An increase in resistance rates was observed in community- and hospital-onset bacteraemia for third-generation cephalosporins, co-amoxiclav, gentamicin and ciprofloxacin. Among community-acquired cases, and after adjustment for other factors, patients aged >65 years were more likely to be infected by E. coli isolates resistant to at least one of 11 antibiotics than those aged 18-64 years (OR: 1.21, 95% CI: 1.18-1.25; P < 0.05). In hospital-onset cases, E. coli isolates from those aged 1-17 years were more likely to be resistant than those aged 18-64 years (OR: 1.33, 95% CI: 1.02-1.73; P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Antibiotic resistance rates in E. coli-causing bacteraemia increased between 2013 and 2018 in England for key antimicrobial agents. Findings of this study have implications for guiding future policies on a prescribing of antimicrobial agents, for specific patient populations in particular.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on patterns of attendance at emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Hospitals in England have undergone considerable change to address the surge in demand imposed by the COVID-19 pandemic. The impact of this on emergency department (ED) attendances is unknown, especially for non-COVID-19 related emergencies. METHODS: This analysis is an observational study of ED attendances at the Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHNT). We calibrated auto-regressive integrated moving average time-series models of ED attendances using historic (2015-2019) data. Forecasted trends were compared to present year ICHNT data for the period between March 12, 2020 (when England implemented the first COVID-19 public health measure) and May 31, 2020. We compared ICHTN trends with publicly available regional and national data. Lastly, we compared hospital admissions made via the ED and in-hospital mortality at ICHNT during the present year to the historic 5-year average. RESULTS: ED attendances at ICHNT decreased by 35% during the period after the first lockdown was imposed on March 12, 2020 and before May 31, 2020, reflecting broader trends seen for ED attendances across all England regions, which fell by approximately 50% for the same time frame. For ICHNT, the decrease in attendances was mainly amongst those aged < 65 years and those arriving by their own means (e.g. personal or public transport) and not correlated with any of the spatial dependencies analysed such as increasing distance from postcode of residence to the hospital. Emergency admissions of patients without COVID-19 after March 12, 2020 fell by 48%; we did not observe a significant change to the crude mortality risk in patients without COVID-19 (RR 1.13, 95%CI 0.94-1.37, p = 0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Our study findings reflect broader trends seen across England and give an indication how emergency healthcare seeking has drastically changed. At ICHNT, we find that a larger proportion arrived by ambulance and that hospitalisation outcomes of patients without COVID-19 did not differ from previous years. The extent to which these findings relate to ED avoidance behaviours compared to having sought alternative emergency health services outside of hospital remains unknown. National analyses and strategies to streamline emergency services in England going forward are urgently needed.

Effect of antibiotic stewardship interventions in primary care on antimicrobial resistance of Escherichia coli bacteraemia in England (2013-18): a quasi-experimental, ecological, data linkage study.

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance is a major global health concern, driven by overuse of antibiotics. We aimed to assess the effectiveness of a national antimicrobial stewardship intervention, the National Health Service (NHS) England Quality Premium implemented in 2015-16, on broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing and Escherichia coli bacteraemia resistance to broad-spectrum antibiotics in England. METHODS: In this quasi-experimental, ecological, data linkage study, we used longitudinal data on bacteraemia for patients registered with a general practitioner in the English National Health Service and patients with E coli bacteraemia notified to the national mandatory surveillance programme between Jan 1, 2013, and Dec 31, 2018. We linked these data to data on antimicrobial susceptibility testing of E coli from Public Health England's Second-Generation Surveillance System. We did an ecological analysis using interrupted time-series analyses and generalised estimating equations to estimate the change in broad-spectrum antibiotics prescribing over time and the change in the proportion of E coli bacteraemia cases for which the causative bacteria were resistant to each antibiotic individually or to at least one of five broad-spectrum antibiotics (co-amoxiclav, ciprofloxacin, levofloxacin, moxifloxacin, ofloxacin), after implementation of the NHS England Quality Premium intervention in April, 2015. FINDINGS: Before implementation of the Quality Premium, the rate of antibiotic prescribing for all five broad-spectrum antibiotics was increasing at rate of 0·2% per month (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1·002 [95% CI 1·000-1·004], p=0·046). After implementation of the Quality Premium, an immediate reduction in total broad-spectrum antibiotic prescribing rate was observed (IRR 0·867 [95% CI 0·837-0·898], p<0·0001). This effect was sustained until the end of the study period; a 57% reduction in rate of antibiotic prescribing was observed compared with the counterfactual situation (ie, had the Quality Premium not been implemented). In the same period, the rate of resistance to at least one broad-spectrum antibiotic increased at rate of 0·1% per month (IRR 1·001 [95% CI 0·999-1·003], p=0·346). On implementation of the Quality Premium, an immediate reduction in resistance rate to at least one broad-spectrum antibiotic was observed (IRR 0·947 [95% CI 0·918-0·977], p=0·0007). Although this effect was also sustained until the end of the study period, with a 12·03% reduction in resistance rate compared with the counterfactual situation, the overall trend remained on an upward trajectory. On examination of the long-term effect following implementation of the Quality Premium, there was an increase in the number of isolates resistant to at least one of the five broad-spectrum antibiotics tested (IRR 1·002 [1·000-1·003]; p=0·047). INTERPRETATION: Although interventions targeting antibiotic use can result in changes in resistance over a short period, they might be insufficient alone to curtail antimicrobial resistance. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research, Economic and Social Research Council, Rosetrees Trust, and The Stoneygate Trust.

Changes in Emergency Department Activity and the First COVID-19 Lockdown: A Cross-sectional Study.

INTRODUCTION: Emergency department (ED) attendances fell across the UK after the 'lockdown' introduced on 23rd March 2020 to limit the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We hypothesised that reductions would vary by patient age and disease type. We examined pre- and in-lockdown ED attendances for two COVID-19 unrelated diagnoses: one likely to be affected by lockdown measures (gastroenteritis), and one likely to be unaffected (appendicitis). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study across two EDs in one London hospital Trust. We compared all adult and paediatric ED attendances, before (January 2020) and during lockdown (March/April 2020). Key patient demographics, method of arrival, and discharge location were compared. We used Systemised Nomenclature of Medicine codes to define attendances for gastroenteritis and appendicitis. RESULTS: ED attendances fell from 1129 per day before lockdown to 584 in lockdown, 51.7% of pre-lockdown rates. In-lockdown attendances were lowest for under-18s (16.0% of pre-lockdown). The proportion of patients admitted to hospital increased from 17.3% to 24.0%, and the proportion admitted to intensive care increased fourfold. Attendances for gastroenteritis fell from 511 to 103, 20.2% of pre-lockdown rates. Attendances for appendicitis also decreased, from 144 to 41, 28.5% of pre-lockdown rates. CONCLUSION: ED attendances fell substantially following lockdown implementation. The biggest reduction was for under-18s. We observed reductions in attendances for gastroenteritis and appendicitis. This may reflect lower rates of infectious disease transmission, although the fall in appendicitis-related attendances suggests that behavioural factors were also important. Larger studies are urgently needed to understand changing patterns of ED use and access to emergency care during the coronavirus 2019 pandemic.

Association between intrahospital transfer and hospital-acquired infection in the elderly: a retrospective case-control study in a UK hospital network.

BACKGROUND: Intrahospital transfers have become more common as hospital staff balance patient needs with bed availability. However, this may leave patients more vulnerable to potential pathogen transmission routes via increased exposure to contaminated surfaces and contacts with individuals. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to quantify the association between the number of intrahospital transfers undergone during a hospital spell and the development of a hospital-acquired infection (HAI). METHODS: A retrospective case-control study was conducted using data extracted from electronic health records and microbiology cultures of non-elective, medical admissions to a large urban hospital network which consists of three hospital sites between 2015 and 2018 (n=24 240). As elderly patients comprise a large proportion of hospital users and are a high-risk population for HAIs, the analysis focused on those aged 65 years or over. Logistic regression was conducted to obtain the OR for developing an HAI as a function of intrahospital transfers until onset of HAI for cases, or hospital discharge for controls, while controlling for age, gender, time at risk, Elixhauser comorbidities, hospital site of admission, specialty of the dominant healthcare professional providing care, intensive care admission, total number of procedures and discharge destination. RESULTS: Of the 24 240 spells, 2877 cases were included in the analysis. 72.2% of spells contained at least one intrahospital transfer. On multivariable analysis, each additional intrahospital transfer increased the odds of acquiring an HAI by 9% (OR=1.09; 95% CI 1.05 to 1.13). CONCLUSION: Intrahospital transfers are associated with increased odds of developing an HAI. Strategies for minimising intrahospital transfers should be considered, and further research is needed to identify unnecessary transfers. Their reduction may diminish spread of contagious pathogens in the hospital environment.