Examining pancreatic stone protein response in ICU-acquired bloodstream infections: a matched event analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pancreatic stone protein (PSP) exhibits potential as a plasma biomarker for infection diagnosis and risk stratification in critically ill patients, but its significance in nosocomial infection and intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired bloodstream infection (BSI) remains unclear. This study explores the temporal responses of PSP in ICU-acquired BSI caused by different pathogens. METHODS: From a large cohort of ICU patients, we selected episodes of ICU-acquired BSI caused by Gram-negative rods (GNRs), enterococci, or Candida species. Events were matched on length of ICU stay at infection onset, Severe Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, presence of immune deficiency, and use of renal replacement therapy. PSP concentrations were measured at infection onset (T0) and at 24, 48 and 72 h prior to infection onset as defined by the first occurrence of a positive blood culture. Absolute and trend differences in PSP levels between pathogen groups were analysed using one-way analysis of variance. Sensitivity analyses were performed in events with a new or worsening systematic inflammatory response based on C-reactive protein, white cell count and fever. RESULTS: We analysed 30 BSI cases per pathogen group. Median (IQR) BSI onset was on day 9 (6-12). Overall, PSP levels were high (381 (237-539) ng/ml), with 18% of values exceeding the assay's measurement range. Across all 90 BSI cases, there was no clear trend over time (median change 34 (- 75-189) ng/ml from T-72 to T0). PSP concentrations at infection onset were 406 (229-497), 350 (223-608), and 480 (327-965) ng/ml, for GNR, enterococci, and Candida species, respectively (p = 0.32). At every time point, absolute PSP levels and trends did not differ significantly between pathogens. PSP values at T0 correlated with SOFA scores. Eighteen (20%) of 90 BSI events did not exhibit a systemic inflammatory response, primarily in Candida species. No clear change in PSP concentration before BSI onset or between-group differences were found in sensitivity analyses of 72 cases. CONCLUSIONS: Against a background of overall (very) high plasma PSP levels in critically ill patients, we did not find clear temporal patterns or any pathogen-specific differences in PSP response in the days preceding onset of ICU-acquired BSI.

Inflammatory subphenotypes previously identified in ARDS are associated with mortality at intensive care unit discharge: a secondary analysis of a prospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Intensive care unit (ICU)-survivors have an increased risk of mortality after discharge compared to the general population. On ICU admission subphenotypes based on the plasma biomarker levels of interleukin-8, protein C and bicarbonate have been identified in patients admitted with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) that are prognostic of outcome and predictive of treatment response. We hypothesized that if these inflammatory subphenotypes previously identified among ARDS patients are assigned at ICU discharge in a more general critically ill population, they are associated with short- and long-term outcome. METHODS: A secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort study conducted in two Dutch ICUs between 2011 and 2014 was performed. All patients discharged alive from the ICU were at ICU discharge adjudicated to the previously identified inflammatory subphenotypes applying a validated parsimonious model using variables measured median 10.6 h [IQR, 8.0-31.4] prior to ICU discharge. Subphenotype distribution at ICU discharge, clinical characteristics and outcomes were analyzed. As a sensitivity analysis, a latent class analysis (LCA) was executed for subphenotype identification based on plasma protein biomarkers at ICU discharge reflective of coagulation activation, endothelial cell activation and inflammation. Concordance between the subphenotyping strategies was studied. RESULTS: Of the 8332 patients included in the original cohort, 1483 ICU-survivors had plasma biomarkers available and could be assigned to the inflammatory subphenotypes. At ICU discharge 6% (n = 86) was assigned to the hyperinflammatory and 94% (n = 1397) to the hypoinflammatory subphenotype. Patients assigned to the hyperinflammatory subphenotype were discharged with signs of more severe organ dysfunction (SOFA scores 7 [IQR 5-9] vs. 4 [IQR 2-6], p < 0.001). Mortality was higher in patients assigned to the hyperinflammatory subphenotype (30-day mortality 21% vs. 11%, p = 0.005; one-year mortality 48% vs. 28%, p < 0.001). LCA deemed 2 subphenotypes most suitable. ICU-survivors from class 1 had significantly higher mortality compared to class 2. Patients belonging to the hyperinflammatory subphenotype were mainly in class 1. CONCLUSIONS: Patients assigned to the hyperinflammatory subphenotype at ICU discharge showed significantly stronger anomalies in coagulation activation, endothelial cell activation and inflammation pathways implicated in the pathogenesis of critical disease and increased mortality until one-year follow up.

Biomarker patterns in patients with cardiogenic shock versus septic shock.

Background: In cardiogenic shock (CS), contractile failure is often accompanied by a systemic inflammatory response syndrome. In contrast, many patients with septic shock (SS) develop cardiac dysfunction. A similar hemodynamic support strategy is often deployed in both syndromes but it is unclear whether this is justified based on profiles of biomarkers expressing neurohormonal activation and cardiovascular stress. Methods: In this prospective, multicenter cohort, 111 patients with acute myocardial infarction related CS were identified, and matched to patients with SS. Clinical parameters were collected and blood samples were obtained on day 1-3 of Intensive Care admission. Results: In this shock cohort comprising 222 patients, with a mean age of 61 (±13.5) years and of whom 161 (37 %) were male, we found that despite obvious clinical disparities on admission, mortality at 30-days did not differ (CS: 40.5 % vs. SS 43.1 %, p = 0.56). Overall, plasma concentrations of all biomarkers were higher in SS patients, with the largest difference on the first day. However, only in CS patients the biomarker concentrations were associated with mortality. Conclusion: In this prospective, multicenter cohort SS and CS patients showed similarities in baseline conditions and had similar mortality. However, several biomarkers only showed prognostic value in CS.

Monocyte state 1 (MS1) cells in critically ill patients with sepsis or non-infectious conditions: association with disease course and host response.

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is a life-threatening condition arising from an aberrant host response to infection. Recent single-cell RNA sequencing investigations identified an immature bone-marrow-derived CD14+ monocyte phenotype with immune suppressive properties termed "monocyte state 1" (MS1) in patients with sepsis. Our objective was to determine the association of MS1 cell profiles with disease presentation, outcomes, and host response characteristics. METHODS: We used the transcriptome deconvolution method (CIBERSORTx) to estimate the percentage of MS1 cells from blood RNA profiles of patients with sepsis admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). We compared these profiles to ICU patients without infection and to healthy controls. Host response dysregulation was further studied by gene co-expression network and gene set enrichment analyses of blood leukocytes, and measurement of 15 plasma biomarkers indicative of pathways implicated in sepsis pathogenesis. RESULTS: Sepsis patients (n = 332) were divided into three equally-sized groups based on their MS1 cell levels (low, intermediate, and high). MS1 groups did not differ in demographics or comorbidities. The intermediate and high MS1 groups presented with higher disease severity and more often had shock. MS1 cell abundance did not differ between survivors and non-survivors, or between patients who did or did not acquire a secondary infection. Higher MS1 cell percentages were associated with downregulation of lymphocyte-related and interferon response genes in blood leukocytes, with concurrent upregulation of inflammatory response pathways, including tumor necrosis factor signaling via nuclear factor-κB. Previously described sepsis host response transcriptomic subtypes showed different MS1 cell abundances, and MS1 cell percentages positively correlated with the "quantitative sepsis response signature" and "molecular degree of perturbation" scores. Plasma biomarker levels, indicative of inflammation, endothelial cell activation, and coagulation activation, were largely similar between MS1 groups. In ICU patients without infection (n = 215), MS1 cell percentages and their relation with disease severity, shock, and host response dysregulation were highly similar to those in sepsis patients. CONCLUSIONS: High MS1 cell percentages are associated with increased disease severity and shock in critically ill patients with sepsis or a non-infectious condition. High MS1 cell abundance likely indicates broad immune dysregulation, entailing not only immunosuppression but also anomalies reflecting exaggerated inflammatory responses.

Gut barrier dysfunction and the risk of ICU-acquired bacteremia- a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Impaired intestinal barrier function can enable passage of enteric microorganisms into the bloodstream and lead to nosocomial bloodstream infections during critical illness. We aimed to determine the relative importance of gut translocation as a source for ICU-acquired enterococcal bacteremia of unknown origin. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study in two mixed medical-surgical tertiary ICUs in the Netherlands among patients enrolled between 2011 and 2018. We selected 72 cases with ICU-acquired bacteremia due to enterococci (which are known gastrointestinal tract commensals) and 137 matched controls with bacteremia due to coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS) (which are of non-intestinal origin). We measured intestinal fatty acid-binding protein, trefoil factor-3, and citrulline 48 h before bacteremia onset. A composite measure for Gut Barrier Injury (GBI) was calculated as the sum of standardized z-scores for each biomarker plus a clinical gastrointestinal failure score. RESULTS: No single biomarker yielded statistically significant differences between cases and controls. Median composite GBI was higher in cases than in controls (0.58, IQR - 0.36-1.69 vs. 0.32, IQR - 0.53-1.57, p = 0.33) and higher composite measures of GBI correlated with higher disease severity and ICU mortality (p < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, higher composite GBI was not significantly associated with increased occurrence of enterococcal bacteremia relative to CoNS bacteremia (adjusted OR 1.12 95% CI 0.93-1.34, p = 0.22). CONCLUSIONS: We could not demonstrate an association between biomarkers of gastrointestinal barrier dysfunction and an increased occurrence of bacteremia due to gut compared to skin flora during critical illness, suggesting against bacterial translocation as a major vector for acquisition of nosocomial bloodstream infections in the ICU.

The Plasma Lipidomic Landscape in Patients with Sepsis due to Community-acquired Pneumonia.

Rationale: The plasma lipidome has the potential to reflect many facets of the host status during severe infection. Previous work is limited to specific lipid groups or was focused on lipids as prognosticators.Objectives: To map the plasma lipidome during sepsis due to community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and determine the disease specificity and associations with clinical features.Methods: We analyzed 1,833 lipid species across 33 classes in 169 patients admitted to the ICU with sepsis due to CAP, 51 noninfected ICU patients, and 48 outpatient controls. In a paired analysis, we reanalyzed patients still in the ICU 4 days after admission (n = 82).Measurements and Main Results: A total of 58% of plasma lipids were significantly lower in patients with CAP-attributable sepsis compared with outpatient controls (6% higher, 36% not different). We found strong lipid class-specific associations with disease severity, validated across two external cohorts, and inflammatory biomarkers, in which triacylglycerols, cholesterol esters, and lysophospholipids exhibited the strongest associations. A total of 36% of lipids increased over time, and stratification by survival revealed diverging lipid recovery, which was confirmed in an external cohort; specifically, a 10% increase in cholesterol ester levels was related to a lower odds ratio (0.84; P = 0.006) for 30-day mortality (absolute mortality, 18 of 82). Comparison with noninfected ICU patients delineated a substantial common illness response (57.5%) and a distinct lipidomic signal for patients with CAP-attributable sepsis (37%).Conclusions: Patients with sepsis due to CAP exhibit a time-dependent and partially disease-specific shift in their plasma lipidome that correlates with disease severity and systemic inflammation and is associated with higher mortality.

Uncovering heterogeneity in sepsis: a comparative analysis of subphenotypes.

PURPOSE: The heterogeneity in sepsis is held responsible, in part, for the lack of precision treatment. Many attempts to identify subtypes of sepsis patients identify those with shared underlying biology or outcomes. To date, though, there has been limited effort to determine overlap across these previously identified subtypes. We aimed to determine the concordance of critically ill patients with sepsis classified by four previously described subtype strategies. METHODS: This secondary analysis of a multicenter prospective observational study included 522 critically ill patients with sepsis assigned to four previously established subtype strategies, primarily based on: (i) clinical data in the electronic health record (α, ß, γ, and δ), (ii) biomarker data (hyper- and hypoinflammatory), and (iii-iv) transcriptomic data (Mars1-Mars4 and SRS1-SRS2). Concordance was studied between different subtype labels, clinical characteristics, biological host response aberrations, as well as combinations of subtypes by sepsis ensembles. RESULTS: All four subtype labels could be adjudicated in this cohort, with the distribution of the clinical subtype varying most from the original cohort. The most common subtypes in each of the four strategies were γ (61%), which is higher compared to the original classification, hypoinflammatory (60%), Mars2 (35%), and SRS2 (54%). There was no clear relationship between any of the subtyping approaches (Cramer's V = 0.086-0.456). Mars2 and SRS1 were most alike in terms of host response biomarkers (p = 0.079-0.424), while other subtype strategies showed no clear relationship. Patients enriched for multiple subtypes revealed that characteristics and outcomes differ dependent on the combination of subtypes made. CONCLUSION: Among critically ill patients with sepsis, subtype strategies using clinical, biomarker, and transcriptomic data do not identify comparable patient populations and are likely to reflect disparate clinical characteristics and underlying biology.

Interrater agreement in classifying infections during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.

Infectious complications are common during extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) and may negatively impact outcomes. However, there is considerable variation in the reported rates of incidence, which hampers the use of infections as a quality benchmark for ECMO centers. To assess the contributing role of poor interrater agreement, three independent raters reviewed medical records from all intensive care unit (ICU) patients who received ECMO for >24 h in our tertiary center between October 2019 and October 2021 for suspected episodes of infection, which were rated based on their date of onset and presumed site/diagnosis. To establish a gold standard, any discrepancies were resolved using an expert panel consisting of two intensivists/infectious disease specialists. During 83 ECMO-runs in 77 patients, we observed a total of 62 adjudicated infectious episodes (incidence rate 62, 95% CI: 48-80, per 1000 days at risk). Among 81 episodes suspected by at least one observer, 66 (81%) were identified by two, and only 44 (54%) by all three raters, resulting in Fleiss' kappa of 0.10 (95% CI: 0.00-0.19; slight agreement). However, if raters concurred regarding infection onset, subsequent agreement on infection site was good (concordance 89%; kappa 0.85, 95% CI: 0.72-0.98; near perfect agreement). In conclusion, adjudication of infectious episodes during ECMO is associated with poor interrater agreement regarding occurrence-but not site-of infection. This finding might partially explain the significant disparities observed in reported infection rates during ECMO, emphasizing the need for caution when interpreting infection data in this particular population due to the potential for inherent measurement error.

The association between preoperative multidisciplinary team care and patient outcome in frail patients undergoing cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of preoperative multidisciplinary team (MDT) care on perioperative management and outcomes of frail patients undergoing cardiac surgery. BACKGROUND: Frail patients are at increased risk for complications and poor functional outcome after cardiac surgery. In these patients, preoperative MDT care may improve outcomes. METHODS: Between 2018 and 2021, 1168 patients aged 70 years or older were scheduled for cardiac surgery, of whom 98 (8.4%) frail patients were referred for MDT care. The MDT discussed surgical risk, prehabilitation, and alternative treatment. Outcomes of MDT patients were compared with 183 frail patients (non-MDT group) from a historical study cohort (2015-2017). Inverse probability of treatment weighting was used to minimize bias from nonrandom allocation of MDT versus non-MDT care. Outcomes were severe postoperative complications, total days in hospital after 120 days, disability, and health-related quality of life after 120 days. RESULTS: This study included 281 patients (98 MDT and 183 non-MDT patients). Of the MDT patients, 67 (68%) had open surgery, 21 (21%) underwent minimally invasive procedures, and 10 (10%) received conservative treatment. In the non-MDT group, all patients had open surgery. Fourteen (14%) MDT patients experienced a severe complication versus 42 (23%) non-MDT patients (adjusted relative risk, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.51-0.99). Adjusted total days in hospital after 120 days was 8 days (interquartile range, 3-12 days) versus 11 days (interquartile range, 7-16 days) for MDT and non-MDT patients, respectively (P = .01). There was no difference in disability or health-related quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative MDT care for frail patients undergoing cardiac surgery is associated with alterations in surgical management and with a lower risk for severe complications.

Advanced glycation end products for preoperative frailty screening in older cardiac surgery patients.

BACKGROUND: Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) are potential biomarkers of biological age. Skin Auto Fluorescence (SAF) can assess AGEs non-invasively. We evaluated the association of SAF levels with frailty and its predictive ability for adverse outcomes in older cardiac surgery patients. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively acquired data from a two-center observational cohort study. We measured SAF level in cardiac surgery patients aged ≥70. Primary outcome was preoperative frailty. A comprehensive frailty assessment was performed before surgery based on 11 individual tests assessing the physical, mental, and social domain. Frailty was defined as at least 1 positive test in each domain. Secondary outcome measures were severe postoperative complications and a composite endpoint of 1-year disability (defined by WHO Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) questionnaire) or mortality. RESULTS: Among 555 enrolled patients, 122 (22%) were frail. SAF level was most strongly associated with dependent living status (aRR 2.45 (95% CI 1.28-4.66)) and impaired cognition (aRR 1.61 (95% CI 1.10-2.34)). A decision algorithm to identify frail patients including SAF level, sex, prescription drugs, preoperative hemoglobin, and EuroSCORE II resulted in a C-statistic of 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77). SAF level was also associated with disability or death after 1 year (aRR 1.38 (95% CI 1.06-1.80)). The aRR for severe complications was 1.28 (95% CI 0.87-1.88). CONCLUSIONS: Higher SAF level is associated with frailty in older cardiac surgery patients, as well as an increased risk of death or disability. This biomarker could potentially optimize preoperative risk stratification for cardiac surgery.

Cohort profile of PLUTO: a perioperative biobank focusing on prediction and early diagnosis of postoperative complications.

PURPOSE: Although elective surgery is generally safe, some procedures remain associated with an increased risk of complications. Improved preoperative risk stratification and earlier recognition of these complications may ameliorate postoperative recovery and improve long-term outcomes. The perioperative longitudinal study of complications and long-term outcomes (PLUTO) cohort aims to establish a comprehensive biorepository that will facilitate research in this field. In this profile paper, we will discuss its design rationale and opportunities for future studies. PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing elective intermediate to high-risk non-cardiac surgery are eligible for enrolment. For the first seven postoperative days, participants are subjected to daily bedside visits by dedicated observers, who adjudicate clinical events and perform non-invasive physiological measurements (including handheld spirometry and single-channel electroencephalography). Blood samples and microbiome specimens are collected at preselected time points. Primary study outcomes are the postoperative occurrence of nosocomial infections, major adverse cardiac events, pulmonary complications, acute kidney injury and delirium/acute encephalopathy. Secondary outcomes include mortality and quality of life, as well as the long-term occurrence of psychopathology, cognitive dysfunction and chronic pain. FINDINGS TO DATE: Enrolment of the first participant occurred early 2020. During the inception phase of the project (first 2 years), 431 patients were eligible of whom 297 patients consented to participate (69%). Observed event rate was 42% overall, with the most frequent complication being infection. FUTURE PLANS: The main purpose of the PLUTO biorepository is to provide a framework for research in the field of perioperative medicine and anaesthesiology, by storing high-quality clinical data and biomaterials for future studies. In addition, PLUTO aims to establish a logistical platform for conducting embedded clinical trials. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05331118.

Prognostic models for mortality risk in patients requiring ECMO.

PURPOSE: To provide an overview and evaluate the performance of mortality prediction models for patients requiring extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) support for refractory cardiocirculatory or respiratory failure. METHODS: A systematic literature search was undertaken to identify studies developing and/or validating multivariable prediction models for all-cause mortality in adults requiring or receiving veno-arterial (V-A) or veno-venous (V-V) ECMO. Estimates of model performance (observed versus expected (O:E) ratio and c-statistic) were summarized using random effects models and sources of heterogeneity were explored by means of meta-regression. Risk of bias was assessed using the Prediction model Risk Of BiAS Tool (PROBAST). RESULTS: Among 4905 articles screened, 96 studies described a total of 58 models and 225 external validations. Out of all 58 models which were specifically developed for ECMO patients, 14 (24%) were ever externally validated. Discriminatory ability of frequently validated models developed for ECMO patients (i.e., SAVE and RESP score) was moderate on average (pooled c-statistics between 0.66 and 0.70), and comparable to general intensive care population-based models (pooled c-statistics varying between 0.66 and 0.69 for the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score). Nearly all models tended to underestimate mortality with a pooled O:E > 1. There was a wide variability in reported performance measures of external validations, reflecting a large between-study heterogeneity. Only 1 of the 58 models met the generally accepted Prediction model Risk Of BiAS Tool criteria of good quality. Importantly, all predicted outcomes were conditional on the fact that ECMO support had already been initiated, thereby reducing their applicability for patient selection in clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of mortality prediction models have been developed for ECMO patients, yet only a minority has been externally validated. Furthermore, we observed only moderate predictive performance, large heterogeneity between-study populations and model performance, and poor methodological quality overall. Most importantly, current models are unsuitable to provide decision support for selecting individuals in whom initiation of ECMO would be most beneficial, as all models were developed in ECMO patients only and the decision to start ECMO had, therefore, already been made.

Association between age and the host response in critically ill patients with sepsis.

BACKGROUND: The association of ageing with increased sepsis mortality is well established. Nonetheless, current investigations on the influence of age on host response aberrations are largely limited to plasma cytokine levels while neglecting other pathophysiological sepsis domains like endothelial cell activation and function, and coagulation activation. The primary objective of this study was to gain insight into the association of ageing with aberrations in key host response pathways and blood transcriptomes in sepsis. METHODS: We analysed the clinical outcome (n = 1952), 16 plasma biomarkers providing insight in deregulation of specific pathophysiological domains (n = 899), and blood leukocyte transcriptomes (n = 488) of sepsis patients stratified according to age decades. Blood transcriptome results were validated in an independent sepsis cohort and compared with healthy individuals. RESULTS: Older age was associated with increased mortality independent of comorbidities and disease severity. Ageing was associated with lower endothelial cell activation and dysfunction, and similar inflammation and coagulation activation, despite higher disease severity scores. Blood leukocytes of patients ≥ 70 years, compared to patients < 50 years, showed decreased expression of genes involved in cytokine signaling, and innate and adaptive immunity, and increased expression of genes involved in hemostasis and endothelial cell activation. The diminished expression of gene pathways related to innate immunity and cytokine signaling in subjects ≥ 70 years was sepsis-induced, as healthy subjects ≥ 70 years showed enhanced expression of these pathways compared to healthy individuals < 50 years. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides novel evidence that older age is associated with relatively mitigated sepsis-induced endothelial cell activation and dysfunction, and a blood leukocyte transcriptome signature indicating impaired innate immune and cytokine signaling. These data suggest that age should be considered in patient selection in future sepsis trials targeting the immune system and/or the endothelial cell response.

Predicting responders to prone positioning in mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 using machine learning.

BACKGROUND: For mechanically ventilated critically ill COVID-19 patients, prone positioning has quickly become an important treatment strategy, however, prone positioning is labor intensive and comes with potential adverse effects. Therefore, identifying which critically ill intubated COVID-19 patients will benefit may help allocate labor resources. METHODS: From the multi-center Dutch Data Warehouse of COVID-19 ICU patients from 25 hospitals, we selected all 3619 episodes of prone positioning in 1142 invasively mechanically ventilated patients. We excluded episodes longer than 24 h. Berlin ARDS criteria were not formally documented. We used supervised machine learning algorithms Logistic Regression, Random Forest, Naive Bayes, K-Nearest Neighbors, Support Vector Machine and Extreme Gradient Boosting on readily available and clinically relevant features to predict success of prone positioning after 4 h (window of 1 to 7 h) based on various possible outcomes. These outcomes were defined as improvements of at least 10% in PaO2/FiO2 ratio, ventilatory ratio, respiratory system compliance, or mechanical power. Separate models were created for each of these outcomes. Re-supination within 4 h after pronation was labeled as failure. We also developed models using a 20 mmHg improvement cut-off for PaO2/FiO2 ratio and using a combined outcome parameter. For all models, we evaluated feature importance expressed as contribution to predictive performance based on their relative ranking. RESULTS: The median duration of prone episodes was 17 h (11-20, median and IQR, N = 2632). Despite extensive modeling using a plethora of machine learning techniques and a large number of potentially clinically relevant features, discrimination between responders and non-responders remained poor with an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.62 for PaO2/FiO2 ratio using Logistic Regression, Random Forest and XGBoost. Feature importance was inconsistent between models for different outcomes. Notably, not even being a previous responder to prone positioning, or PEEP-levels before prone positioning, provided any meaningful contribution to predicting a successful next proning episode. CONCLUSIONS: In mechanically ventilated COVID-19 patients, predicting the success of prone positioning using clinically relevant and readily available parameters from electronic health records is currently not feasible. Given the current evidence base, a liberal approach to proning in all patients with severe COVID-19 ARDS is therefore justified and in particular regardless of previous results of proning.

Lupus anticoagulant associates with thrombosis in patients with COVID-19 admitted to intensive care units: A retrospective cohort study.

Background: Thrombosis is a frequent and severe complication in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Lupus anticoagulant (LA) is a strong acquired risk factor for thrombosis in various diseases and is frequently observed in patients with COVID-19. Whether LA is associated with thrombosis in patients with severe COVID-19 is currently unclear. Objective: To investigate if LA is associated with thrombosis in critically ill patients with COVID-19. Patients/Methods: The presence of LA and other antiphospholipid antibodies was assessed in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the ICU. LA was determined with dilute Russell's viper venom time (dRVVT) and LA-sensitive activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) reagents. Results: Of 169 patients with COVID-19, 116 (69%) tested positive for at least one antiphospholipid antibody upon admission to the ICU. Forty (24%) patients tested positive for LA; of whom 29 (17%) tested positive with a dRVVT, 19 (11%) tested positive with an LA-sensitive aPTT, and 8 (5%) tested positive on both tests. Fifty-eight (34%) patients developed thrombosis after ICU admission. The odds ratio (OR) for thrombosis in patients with LA based on a dRVVT was 2.5 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-5.7), which increased to 4.5 (95% CI, 1.4-14.3) in patients at or below the median age in this study (64 years). LA positivity based on a dRVVT or LA-sensitive aPTT was only associated with thrombosis in patients aged less than 65 years (OR, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.3-11.4) and disappeared after adjustment for C-reactive protein. Conclusion: Lupus anticoagulant on admission is strongly associated with thrombosis in critically ill patients with COVID-19, especially in patients aged less than 65 years.