Data-Driven Thyroglobulin Cutoffs for Low- and Intermediate-Risk Thyroid Cancer Follow-Up: ITCO Real-World Analysis.

CONTEXT: The utility of thyroglobulin (Tg) in the follow-up of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients has been well-documented. Although third-generation immunoassays have improved accuracy, limitations persist (interfering anti-Tg antibodies and measurement variability). Evolving treatment strategies require a reevaluation of Tg thresholds for optimal patient management. OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of serum Tg testing in two populations: patients receiving total thyroidectomy and radioiodine remnant ablation (RRA), or treated with thyroidectomy alone. DESIGN: Prospective observational study. Setting. Centers contributing to the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory (ITCO) database. PATIENTS: We included 540 patients with 5 years of follow-up and negative anti-Tg antibodies. INTERVENTIONS: Serum Tg levels assessed at 1-year follow-up visit. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Detection of structural disease within 5 years of follow-up. RESULTS: After excluding 26 patients with structural disease detected at any time point, the median Tg did not differ between patients treated with or without radioiodine. Data-driven Tg thresholds were established based on the 97th percentile of Tg levels in disease-free individuals: 1.97 ng/mL for patients undergoing thyroidectomy alone (lower than proposed by the MSKCC protocol and ESMO Guidelines, yet demonstrating good predictive ability, with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98%) and 0.84 ng/mL for patients receiving post-surgical RRA. High sensitivity and NPV supported the potential of these thresholds in excluding structural disease. CONCLUSIONS: This real-world study provides evidence for the continued reliability of 1-year serum Tg levels. The data-driven Tg thresholds proposed offer valuable insights for clinical decision-making in patients undergoing total thyroidectomy with or without RRA.

A Prospective Multicenter Study Examining the Relationship Between Thyroid Cancer Treatment Outcomes and the Presence of Autoimmune Thyroiditis.

Background: There is some controversy on the potential relationship between autoimmune processes and clinicopathologic features as well as prognosis of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), and the evidence is limited by its largely retrospective nature. We examined the relationship between the presence of autoimmune thyroiditis (AT) and 1-year thyroid cancer treatment outcomes in a large multicenter study using prospectively collected data. Methods: We included data from consecutive DTC patients enrolled in the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory (ITCO) database (NCT04031339). We divided the groups according to the presence (AT) or absence (no autoimmune thyroiditis [noAT]) of associated AT. We used propensity score matching to compare the clinical features and outcomes between the two groups at 1-year follow-up. Results: We included data from 4233 DTC patients, including 3172 (75%) females. The American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk levels were as follows: 51% (2160/4233) low risk, 41.3% (1750/4233) intermediate risk, and 7.6% (323/4233) high risk. There were 1552 patients (36.7%) who had AT. Before propensity score matching, AT patients were significantly younger and had a smaller and bilateral tumor (p < 0.0001). Patients with AT more frequently fell into the low- and intermediate-risk categories, while the ATA high risk was more frequent among noAT patients (p = 0.004). After propensity score matching, patients with AT more frequently showed evidence of disease (structural/biochemical incomplete response) versus excellent/indeterminate response, compared with patients without AT (7.3% vs. 4.5%, p = 0.001), with an odds ratio of 1.86 ([confidence interval: 1.3-2.6], p = 0.0001). However, when considering only structural persistence as the outcome, no statistically significant differences were observed between patients with or without AT (3.4% vs. 2.7%, p = 0.35). The elevated risk associated with the ATA intermediate and high risk at diagnosis remained consistently statistically significant. Conclusions: In this large prospective series, biochemical persistence was more frequent, at 1-year follow-up, in AT patients. However, there was no significant association between the presence of AT and structural persistence of disease. These findings may be explained by the presence of a residual thyroid tissue.

A Data-Driven Approach to Refine Predictions of Differentiated Thyroid Cancer Outcomes: A Prospective Multicenter Study.

CONTEXT: The risk stratification of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is crucial in clinical decision making. The most widely accepted method to assess risk of recurrent/persistent disease is described in the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. However, recent research has focused on the inclusion of novel features or questioned the relevance of currently included features. OBJECTIVE: To develop a comprehensive data-driven model to predict persistent/recurrent disease that can capture all available features and determine the weight of predictors. METHODS: In a prospective cohort study, using the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory (ITCO) database (NCT04031339), we selected consecutive cases with DTC and at least early follow-up data (n = 4773; median follow-up 26 months; interquartile range, 12-46 months) at 40 Italian clinical centers. A decision tree was built to assign a risk index to each patient. The model allowed us to investigate the impact of different variables in risk prediction. RESULTS: By ATA risk estimation, 2492 patients (52.2%) were classified as low, 1873 (39.2%) as intermediate, and 408 as high risk. The decision tree model outperformed the ATA risk stratification system: the sensitivity of high-risk classification for structural disease increased from 37% to 49%, and the negative predictive value for low-risk patients increased by 3%. Feature importance was estimated. Several variables not included in the ATA system significantly impacted the prediction of disease persistence/recurrence: age, body mass index, tumor size, sex, family history of thyroid cancer, surgical approach, presurgical cytology, and circumstances of the diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Current risk stratification systems may be complemented by the inclusion of other variables in order to improve the prediction of treatment response. A complete dataset allows for more precise patient clustering.

Are Evidence-Based Guidelines Reflected in Clinical Practice? An Analysis of Prospectively Collected Data of the Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory.

OBJECTIVES: The goal of evidence-based practice guidelines is to optimize the management of emerging diseases, such as differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). The aim of this study was to assess therapeutic approaches for DTC in Italy and to see how closely these practices conformed to those recommended in the 2009 American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines. METHODS: The Italian Thyroid Cancer Observatory was established to collect data prospectively on thyroid cancers consecutively diagnosed in participating centers (uniformly distributed across the nation). Data on the initial treatment of all pathologically confirmed DTC cases present in the database from January 1, 2013 (database creation) to January 31, 2016, were analyzed. RESULTS: A total of 1748 patients (77.2% females; median age 48.1 years [range 10-85 years]) were enrolled in the study. Most (n = 1640; 93.8%) were papillary carcinomas (including 84 poorly differentiated/aggressive variants); 6.2% (n = 108) were follicular and Hürthle cell carcinomas. The median tumor diameter was 11 mm (range 1-93 mm). Tumors were multifocal in 613 (35%) and presented extrathyroidal extension in 492 (28%) cases. Initial treatments included total thyroidectomy (involving one or two procedures; n = 726; 98.8%) and lobectomy (n = 22; 1.2%). A quarter of the patients who underwent total thyroidectomy had unifocal, intrathyroidal tumors ≤1 cm (n = 408; 23.6%). Neck dissection was performed in 40.4% of the patients (29.5% had central compartment dissection). Radioiodine remnant ablation (RRA) was performed in 1057 (61.2%) of the 1726 patients who underwent total thyroidectomy: 460 (41.2%) of the 983 classified by 2009 ATA guideline criteria as low-risk, 570 (87.1%) of the 655 as intermediate-risk, and 82 (93.1%) of the 88 as high-risk patients (p < 0.001). RRA was performed in 44% of the cases involving multifocal DTCs measuring ≤1 cm. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment approaches for DTCs used in Italy display areas of inconsistency with those recommended by the 2009 ATA guidelines. Italian practices were characterized by underuse of thyroid lobectomy in intrathyroidal, unifocal DTCs ≤1 cm. The use of RRA was generally consistent with risk-stratified recommendations. However, its frequent use in small DTCs (≤1 cm) that are multifocal persists, despite the lack of evidence of benefit. These data provide a baseline for future assessments of the impact of international guidelines on DTC management in Italy. These findings also illustrate that the dissemination and implementation of guideline recommendations, and the change in practice patterns, require ongoing education and time.

Identification and optimal postsurgical follow-up of patients with very low-risk papillary thyroid microcarcinomas.

CONTEXT: Most papillary thyroid microcarcinomas (PTMCs; ≤ 1 cm diameter) are indolent low-risk tumors, but some cases behave more aggressively. Controversies have thus arisen over the optimum postoperative surveillance of PTMC patients. OBJECTIVES: We tested the hypothesis that clinical criteria could be used to identify PTMC patients with very low mortality/recurrence risks and attempted to define the best strategy for their management and long-term surveillance. DESIGN: We retrospectively analyzed data from 312 consecutively diagnosed PTMC patients with T1N0M0 stage disease, no family history of thyroid cancer, no history of head-neck irradiation, unifocal PTMC, no extracapsular involvement, and classic papillary histotypes. Additional inclusion criteria were complete follow-up data from surgery to at least 5 yr after diagnosis. All 312 had undergone (near) total thyroidectomy [with radioactive iodine (RAI) remnant ablation in 137 (44%) - RAI group] and were followed up yearly with cervical ultrasonography and serum thyroglobulin, TSH, and thyroglobulin antibody assays. RESULTS: During follow-up (5-23 yr, median 6.7 yr), there were no deaths due to thyroid cancer or reoperations. The first (6-12 months after surgery) and last postoperative cervical sonograms were negative in all cases. Final serum thyroglobulin levels were undetectable (<1 ng/ml) in all RAI patients and almost all (93%) of non-RAI patients. CONCLUSION: Accurate risk stratification can allow safe follow-up of most PTMC patients with a less intensive, more cost-effective protocol. Cervical ultrasonography is the mainstay of this protocol, and negative findings at the first postoperative examination are highly predictive of positive outcomes.

Cold benign thyroid nodule volume reduction predictability after percutaneous ethanol injection.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the effect of percutaneous ethanol injection (PEI), a suppressive therapy for cold benign thyroid nodules (CBNs), on cytology. STUDY DESIGN: The study group consisted of 31 CBNs, treated with PEI for 1 year, aspirated before and while the patients were on suppressive therapy. A control group consisting of 22 patients, whose nodule characteristic, PEI treatment and follow-up were similar to those of the study patients group, was monitored to confirm the results. By analogy with a similar study, the following factors were considered: an initial volume of the CBNs > 25 mL, abundant colloid, degree of cellular hyperplasia and presence ofdegenerative changes. To verify these hypotheses, we tested the differences using the t test for the initial volume and the Mann-Whitney U test for the remaining features. RESULTS: The study has proved the unpredictability of the volume reduction in a single nodule on the basis of cytologic evaluation. CONCLUSION: The lack of cytologic features that can be considered statistically predictive of large nodule reduction as a result of PEI treatment confirms that fine needle aspiration cytology may help establish the correct diagnosis.

Predictive value of recombinant human TSH stimulation and neck ultrasonography in differentiated thyroid cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: Serum thyroglobulin (Tg) stimulation by recombinant human TSH (rhTSH), in combination with neck ultrasonography (US), is an important tool in the first follow-up of differentiated epithelial cell thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients. The objective of this study was to investigate if a second rhTSH stimulation, performed 2-3 years later, is of clinical utility in the follow-up of these patients. METHODS: One hundred and one consecutive ambulatory DTC patients were studied. The great majority of them (89/101) were low-risk patients, being stage I or II at tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging classification. All study patients had been treated by surgery and radioiodine ablation, and exhibited, at first rhTSH follow-up, either undetectable Tg (1-5 ng/mL) (rhTSH1-Tg+, n = 12 patients considered with uncertain prognosis), with no US evidence of residual disease. In all patients, serum Tg measurement after a second rhTSH stimulation and neck US were performed. RESULTS: At the second follow-up, all 89 rhTSH1-Tg-patients showed a negative US, and Tg became low positive only in one case, whereas it remained undetectable in the other patients. The overall negative predictive value of rhTSH1-Tg- was, then, 98.9%. Out of the remaining 12 patients (i.e., rhTSH1-Tg+ patients), 2 showed disease persistence/recurrence (with a positive predictive value of rhTSH1-Tg+ of 16.7%) and 6 became Tg-. CONCLUSIONS: A second rhTSH stimulation is useless in DTC patients who were rhTSH-Tg and imaging negative at first follow-up, while it is suggested in patients with detectable, although low, rhTSH-Tg levels at first follow-up: in the absence of clinical or US evidence of disease persistence, these patients should not be retreated by radioiodine, but simply scheduled for a later rhTSH stimulation.

Type 2 deiodinase polymorphism (threonine 92 alanine) predicts L-thyroxine dose to achieve target thyrotropin levels in thyroidectomized patients.

CONTEXT: Type 2 deiodinase (D2) converts T4 in T3 in several human tissues, including hypothalamus and pituitary, and, therefore, plays a pivotal role in the negative feedback regulation of TSH secretion. A common variant of the gene, threonine (Thr) 92 alanine (Ala), has been identified and associated with decreased D2 enzymatic activity. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to investigate whether this polymorphism predicts the T4 dosage needed to obtain target TSH levels in thyroidectomized patients. SETTING: Ambulatory patients were included in the study. PATIENTS: A total of 191 consecutive thyroid cancer patients, previously treated by near total thyroidectomy and radioiodine ablation, were studied. They were on stable T4 dose treatment aimed at obtaining either suppressed (supp) (n=117, <0.1 mU/liter) or near-supp (n=74, >or=0.1<0.5 mU/liter) serum TSH levels. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: DNA genotyping for D2 Thr92Ala variant and evaluation of T4 dose (microg/kg) needed to obtain target TSH levels were determined. RESULTS: Ala/Ala homozygous patients needed a higher T4 dose as compared with patients carrying the Thr92 variant (X/Thr patients) according to a recessive genetic model (2.08+/-0.43 vs. 1.90+/-0.35 microg/kg; P<0.05). This difference was observable in the near-supp group (P=0.002), but not in the supp group (P=0.4). CONCLUSIONS: D2 Thr92Ala polymorphism seems to predict the need for higher T4 intake in thyroidectomized patients. If this finding is confirmed in additional studies, it may predict the T4 requirement to suppress TSH on the basis of the individual genetic background.

Age influences TSH serum levels after withdrawal of l-thyroxine or rhTSH stimulation in patients affected by differentiated thyroid cancer.

Recombinant human TSH (rhTSH) has been recently suggested for radioiodine ablation in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). To date, studies are still not available about the effectiveness of rhTSH stimulation depending on the age, since serum TSH clearance may be different in younger and in older patients. The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of age to serum TSH levels after rhTSH stimulation and thyroid hormone withdrawal (THW). We retrospectively evaluated two groups of consecutive DTC patients: group 1 (311 patients, age 49.0+/-13.6 years, ranging 15-86) underwent rhTSH stimulation 6-12 months after thyroid ablation (rhTSH-group); group 2 (84 patients, age 46.9+/-13.5 years, ranging 20-77) was followed by THW (THW-group). The influence of age, gender, body mass index and body surface area to serum TSH levels were evaluated in both groups. RhTSH-group: on day 5 (d5), TSH levels were 32.7+/-21.4 microU/ml (range 0.8-136.6). By univariate analysis, d5-TSH was positively related to age (r=0.27, p=0.0001) and no correlations were found with the other parameters. At multivariate analysis, both age and gender (female) were independently associated with d5-TSH levels. THW-group: after thyroid hormone withdrawal, TSH levels were 71.1+/-36.4 microU/ml (range 8.5-200). At univariate analysis, only age was significantly and negatively related to serum TSH levels (r=-0.31, p=0.004). Our data indicate that age and gender seem to positively influence serum TSH levels after rhTSH stimulation. An opposite effect of age on serum TSH levels has been observed after THW. Therapeutic implications ((131)I-treatment) of these findings have to be better investigated in prospective studies.

Predictive value of serum calcitonin levels for preoperative diagnosis of medullary thyroid carcinoma in a cohort of 5817 consecutive patients with thyroid nodules.

CONTEXT: Routine serum calcitonin (CT) measurement in patients with thyroid nodules for diagnosis of medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC) is controversial. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of systematic CT measurement in non-multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2 patients with nodular thyroid disease. SETTINGS: This study was conducted at a national healthcare system hospital (outpatient and inpatient sectors). SUBJECTS: Consecutive patients with nodular thyroid disease (n = 5817) were studied. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Serum CT levels were measured under basal conditions, and when basal values were more than or equal to 20 and less than 100 pg/ml, testing was repeated after pentagastrin stimulation. Basal or stimulated levels more than 100 pg/ml were indication for surgery. RESULTS: Fifteen cases of MTC and seven of C cell hyperplasia (CCH) were identified. MTCs were diagnosed in all patients with basal CT more than 100 pg/ml. The four patients with basal CT more than or equal to 50 and less than 100 pg/ml included two diagnosed with MTC and two with CCH. In 10 patients with basal levels more than or equal to 20 and less than 50 pg/ml, histology confirmed the presence of MTC in four, four others had CCH, and the remaining two were negative for thyroid malignancy. Positive predictive values for basal CT levels in the preoperative diagnosis of MTC were: 23.1% for values more than or equal to 20 pg/ml, 100% for values more than 100 pg/ml, 25% for levels more than or equal to 50 and less than 100 pg/ml, and 8.3% for values more than or equal to 20 and less than 50 pg/ml. Positive predictive values for the pentagastrin test (>100 pg/ml) were 40% in the entire series. CONCLUSIONS: CT screening of thyroid nodules is a highly sensitive test for early diagnosis of MTC, but confirmatory stimulation testing is necessary in most cases to identify true positive increases.

Comparative evaluation of recombinant human thyrotropin-stimulated thyroglobulin levels, 131I whole-body scintigraphy, and neck ultrasonography in the follow-up of patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma who have not undergone radioiodine therapy.

CONTEXT: Although the prognosis of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) is usually excellent, the optimal follow-up strategy has never been investigated. OBJECTIVE: The objective of the study was to investigate the role of neck ultrasonography (US), whole-body scintigraphy (WBS), and serum thyroglobulin levels (Tg) after recombinant human (rh) TSH in the follow-up of very low-risk PTMC patients. DESIGN: The study was a 5-yr observational study based on a 6- to 12-month follow-up after near total thyroidectomy. SETTING: The study population consisted of ambulatory patients. PATIENTS: Eighty consecutive patients diagnosed with PTMC, who had not undergone postoperative radioiodine treatment because of unifocal tumor without lymph node metastases and who did not have anti-Tg antibodies, were included. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: WBS and Tg after both rhTSH and neck US were measured. RESULTS: rhTSH-Tg was 1 ng/ml or less in 45 (Tg-) and more than 1 in 35 (Tg+) patients. WBS showed no pathological uptake in any patient. US identified node metastases in two Tg (+) and one Tg (-) patients. rhTSH-Tg levels positively correlated with thyroid bed iodine uptake (r = 0.40, P < 0.0001). To date (32 +/- 13 months after surgery), all node-negative patients have undetectable Tg levels on LT(4) treatment and negative US. CONCLUSIONS: For the initial follow-up of PTMC patients without risk factors and anti-Tg antibodies and who did not undergo radioiodine treatment: 1) WBS is useless; 2) US is highly sensitive in detecting node metastases; and 3) detectable rhTSH-Tg levels mainly depend on small normal tissue remnants. In this subgroup of PTMC patients, neck US might be regarded as a primary tool for the initial follow-up.

Follow-up of low risk patients with papillary thyroid cancer: role of neck ultrasonography in detecting lymph node metastases.

Persistent or recurrent disease is rare in low risk patients with papillary thyroid cancer, and follow-up of these patients is a matter of debate. Neck ultrasonography (US), serum thyroglobulin (Tg), and whole body scan (WBS) after T(4) withdrawal were performed in 456 patients, followed up to 5 yr. At the end of the first year, 335 patients were Tg negative, and 121 were Tg positive; 65 of 96 patients with Tg levels between 1 and 10 ng/ml became spontaneously Tg negative after 2 yr. During follow-up, WBS discovered node metastases in 13 subjects, and US discovered node metastases in 38 subjects (31 Tg positive and 7 Tg negative). WBS did not add any information, because all WBS-positive patients were also US and Tg positive. Fifty percent of metastases were less than 1 cm and not palpable. Finally, the negative predictive value of both negative Tg and US at first follow-up was 98.8%. We suggest a first follow-up based upon US assessment and stimulated (after T(4) withdrawal or recombinant human TSH) serum Tg determination; subsequently, 1) US should not be mandatory at each examination in initially Tg- and US-negative subjects, but is strongly suggested in all other cases; 2) Tg determination should be repeated 1 yr later, after exogenous or endogenous TSH stimulation only in initially Tg-positive patients without any other evidence of residual disease; and 3) Tg measurement during therapy should be sufficient in all other cases.

Serum thyroglobulin and 131I whole body scan after recombinant human TSH stimulation in the follow-up of low-risk patients with differentiated thyroid cancer.

OBJECTIVE: The 'standard' postoperative follow-up of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) has been based upon serum thyroglobulin (Tg) measurement and (131)I whole body scan ((131)I-WBS) after thyroid hormone (T(4)) treatment withdrawal. However, (131)I-WBS sensitivity has been reported to be low. Thyroid hormone withdrawal, often associated with hypothyroidism-related side effects, may now be replaced by recombinant human thyroid stimulating hormone (rhTSH). The aim of our study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of (131)I-WBS and serum Tg measurement obtained after rhTSH stimulation and of neck ultrasonography in the first follow-up of DTC patients. DESIGN: Ninety-nine consecutive patients previously treated with total thyroidectomy and (131)I ablation, with no uptake outside the thyroid bed on the post-ablative (131)I-WBS (low-risk patients) were enrolled. METHODS: Measurement of serum Tg and (131)I-WBS after rhTSH stimulation, and ultrasound examination (US) of the neck. RESULTS: rhTSH-stimulated Tg was 1 ng/ml (Tg+) in 21 patients, including 6 patients with Tg levels >5 ng/ml. (131)I-WBS was negative for persistent or recurrent disease in all patients (i.e. sensitivity = 0%). US identified lymph-node metastases (confirmed at surgery) in 4/6 (67%) patients with stimulated Tg levels >5 ng/ml, in 2/15 (13%) with Tg >1<5 ng/ml, and in 2/78 (3%) who were Tg-negative. CONCLUSIONS: (i) diagnostic (131)I-WBS performed after rhTSH stimulation is useless in the first follow-up of DTC patients; (ii) US may identify lymph node metastases even in patients with low or undetectable serum Tg levels.