Methane prediction equations including genera of rumen bacteria as predictor variables improve prediction accuracy.

Methane (CH4) emissions from ruminants are of a significant environmental concern, necessitating accurate prediction for emission inventories. Existing models rely solely on dietary and host animal-related data, ignoring the predicting power of rumen microbiota, the source of CH4. To address this limitation, we developed novel CH4 prediction models incorporating rumen microbes as predictors, alongside animal- and feed-related predictors using four statistical/machine learning (ML) methods. These include random forest combined with boosting (RF-B), least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), generalized linear mixed model with LASSO (glmmLasso), and smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) implemented on linear mixed models. With a sheep dataset (218 observations) of both animal data and rumen microbiota data (relative sequence abundance of 330 genera of rumen bacteria, archaea, protozoa, and fungi), we developed linear mixed models to predict CH4 production (g CH4/animal·d, ANIM-B models) and CH4 yield (g CH4/kg of dry matter intake, DMI-B models). We also developed models solely based on animal-related data. Prediction performance was evaluated 200 times with random data splits, while fitting performance was assessed without data splitting. The inclusion of microbial predictors improved the models, as indicated by decreased root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) and mean absolute error (MAE), and increased Lin's concordance correlation coefficient (CCC). Both glmmLasso and SCAD reduced the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) for both the ANIM-B and the DMI-B models, while the other two ML methods had mixed outcomes. By balancing prediction performance and fitting performance, we obtained one ANIM-B model (containing 10 genera of bacteria and 3 animal data) fitted using glmmLasso and one DMI-B model (5 genera of bacteria and 1 animal datum) fitted using SCAD. This study highlights the importance of incorporating rumen microbiota data in CH4 prediction models to enhance accuracy and robustness. Additionally, ML methods facilitate the selection of microbial predictors from high-dimensional metataxonomic data of the rumen microbiota without overfitting. Moreover, the identified microbial predictors can serve as biomarkers of CH4 emissions from sheep, providing valuable insights for future research and mitigation strategies.

Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050.

To meet the 1.5 °C target, methane (CH4) from ruminants must be reduced by 11 to 30% by 2030 and 24 to 47% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels. A meta-analysis identified strategies to decrease product-based (PB; CH4 per unit meat or milk) and absolute (ABS) enteric CH4 emissions while maintaining or increasing animal productivity (AP; weight gain or milk yield). Next, the potential of different adoption rates of one PB or one ABS strategy to contribute to the 1.5 °C target was estimated. The database included findings from 430 peer-reviewed studies, which reported 98 mitigation strategies that can be classified into three categories: animal and feed management, diet formulation, and rumen manipulation. A random-effects meta-analysis weighted by inverse variance was carried out. Three PB strategies­namely, increasing feeding level, decreasing grass maturity, and decreasing dietary forage-to-concentrate ratio­decreased CH4 per unit meat or milk by on average 12% and increased AP by a median of 17%. Five ABS strategies­namely CH4 inhibitors, tanniferous forages, electron sinks, oils and fats, and oilseeds­decreased daily methane by on average 21%. Globally, only 100% adoption of the most effective PB and ABS strategies can meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050, because mitigation effects are offset by projected increases in CH4 due to increasing milk and meat demand. Notably, by 2030 and 2050, low- and middle-income countries may not meet their contribution to the 1.5 °C target for this same reason, whereas high-income countries could meet their contributions due to only a minor projected increase in enteric CH4 emissions.

Prediction of enteric methane production, yield, and intensity in dairy cattle using an intercontinental database.

Enteric methane (CH4 ) production from cattle contributes to global greenhouse gas emissions. Measurement of enteric CH4 is complex, expensive, and impractical at large scales; therefore, models are commonly used to predict CH4 production. However, building robust prediction models requires extensive data from animals under different management systems worldwide. The objectives of this study were to (1) collate a global database of enteric CH4 production from individual lactating dairy cattle; (2) determine the availability of key variables for predicting enteric CH4 production (g/day per cow), yield [g/kg dry matter intake (DMI)], and intensity (g/kg energy corrected milk) and their respective relationships; (3) develop intercontinental and regional models and cross-validate their performance; and (4) assess the trade-off between availability of on-farm inputs and CH4 prediction accuracy. The intercontinental database covered Europe (EU), the United States (US), and Australia (AU). A sequential approach was taken by incrementally adding key variables to develop models with increasing complexity. Methane emissions were predicted by fitting linear mixed models. Within model categories, an intercontinental model with the most available independent variables performed best with root mean square prediction error (RMSPE) as a percentage of mean observed value of 16.6%, 14.7%, and 19.8% for intercontinental, EU, and United States regions, respectively. Less complex models requiring only DMI had predictive ability comparable to complex models. Enteric CH4 production, yield, and intensity prediction models developed on an intercontinental basis had similar performance across regions, however, intercepts and slopes were different with implications for prediction. Revised CH4 emission conversion factors for specific regions are required to improve CH4 production estimates in national inventories. In conclusion, information on DMI is required for good prediction, and other factors such as dietary neutral detergent fiber (NDF) concentration, improve the prediction. For enteric CH4 yield and intensity prediction, information on milk yield and composition is required for better estimation.

Influence of ruminal methane on digesta retention and digestive physiology in non-lactating dairy cattle.

Enteric methane (CH4) production is a side-effect of herbivore digestion, but it is unknown whether CH4 itself influences digestive physiology. We investigated the effect of adding CH4 to, or reducing it in, the reticulorumen (RR) in a 4×4 Latin square experiment with rumen-fistulated, non-lactating cows, with four treatments: (i) control, (ii) insufflation of CH4 (iCH4), (iii) N via rumen fistula, (iv) reduction of CH4 via administration of bromochloromethane (BCM). DM intake (DMI), apparent total tract digestibility, digesta mean retention times (MRT), rumen motility and chewing activity, spot breath CH4 emission (CH4exhal, litre/kg DMI) as well as CH4 dissolved in rumen fluid (CH4RRf, µg/ml) were measured. Data were analysed using mixed models, including treatment (or, alternatively, CH4exhal or CH4RRf) and DMI relative to body mass0·85 (rDMI) as covariates. rDMI was the lowest on the BCM treatment. CH4exhal was highest for iCH4 and lowest for BCM treatments, whereas only BCM affected (reduced) CH4RRf. After adjusting for rDMI, CH4RRf had a negative association with MRT in the gastrointestinal tract but not in the RR, and negative associations with fibre digestibility and measures of rumination activity. Adjusting for rDMI, CH4exhal had additionally a negative association with particle MRT in the RR and a positive association with rumen motility. Thus, higher rumen levels of CH4 (CH4exhal or CH4RRf) were associated with shorter MRT and increased motility. These findings are tentatively interpreted as a feedback mechanism in the ruminant digestive tract that aims at mitigating CH4 losses by shortening MRT at higher CH4.