FEV1 Variability Predicts Lung Transplant or Mortality in Cystic Fibrosis Patients in the US.

RATIONALE: Declines in percent predicted Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second (ppFEV1) are an important marker of clinical progression of Cystic Fibrosis (CF). OBJECTIVES: We examined ppFEV1 variability on a combined outcome of lung transplant or death. METHODS: We estimated the association between ppFEV1 variability and the combined outcome of lung transplant or death. We included children ages 8 years and above with CF and two prior years of ppFEV1 data before baseline between 2005 and 2021. We defined ppFEV1 increased variability as any relative increase or decrease of at least 10% in ppFEV1 from a two-year averaged baseline. A marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model was used. We examined a cumulative measure of ppFEV1 variability, defined as the cumulative proportion of visits with ppFEV1 variability at each visit. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were generated based upon quartiles of the cumulative distribution of ppFEV1 variability. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We included 9,706 CF patients in our cohort. Median age at cohort entry was 8.3 (IQR 8.2 - 8.4) years, 50% of patients were female, 94% white, and median baseline ppFEV1 was 94.4 (IQR 81.6 - 106.1). The unadjusted HR for increased ppFEV1 variability on lung transplant/mortality was 4.13 (95% CI 3.48 - 4.90) and the weighted HR was 1.49 (95% CI 1.19 - 1.86). Survival curves stratified by quartile of cumulative variability demonstrated an increased hazard of lung transplant/mortality as the proportion of cumulative ppFEV1 variability increased. CONCLUSIONS: We found a strong association between ppFEV1 variability and lung transplant or mortality in a cohort of people with CF in the US.

Clinical outcomes at 9-10 years of age in children born with cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator related metabolic syndrome.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There are limited data on cystic fibrosis (CF) transmembrane conductance regulator-related metabolic syndrome (CRMS) outcomes beyond infancy. The goal of this study was to analyze outcomes of infants with CRMS up to the age of 9-10 years using the CF Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR). METHODS: We analyzed data from the CFFPR for individuals with CF and CRMS born between 2010 and 2020. We classified all patients based on the clinical diagnosis reported by the CF care center and the diagnosis using CFF guideline definitions for CF and CRMS, classifying children into groups based on agreement between clinical report and guideline criteria. Descriptive statistics for the cohort were calculated for demographics, nutritional outcomes, and microbiology for the first year of life and lung function and growth outcomes were summarized for ages 6-10 years. RESULTS: From 2010 to 2020, there were 8765 children with diagnosis of CF or CRMS entered into the CFFPR with sufficient diagnostic data for classification, of which 7591 children had a clinical diagnosis of CF and 1174 had a clinical diagnosis of CRMS. CRMS patients exhibited normal nutritional indices and pulmonary function up to age 9-10 years. The presence of respiratory bacteria associated with CF, such as Pseudomonas aeruginosa from CRMS patients ranged from 2.1% to 9.1% after the first year of life. CONCLUSIONS: Children with CRMS demonstrate normal pulmonary and nutritional outcomes into school age. However, a small percentage of children continue to culture CF-associated respiratory pathogens after infancy.

The impact of switching to race-neutral reference equations on FEV1 percent predicted among people with cystic fibrosis.

RATIONALE: The American Thoracic Society recommended switching to race-neutral spirometry reference equations, as race is a social construct and to avoid normalizing disparities in lung function due to structural racism. Understanding the impact of the race-neutral equations on percent predicted forced expiratory volume in one second (ppFEV1) in people with cystic fibrosis (PwCF) will help prepare patients and providers to interpret pulmonary function test results. OBJECTIVE(S): To quantify the impact of switching from Global Lung Initiative (GLI) 2012 race-specific to GLI 2022 Global race-neutral reference equations on the distribution of ppFEV1 among PwCF of different races. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of FEV1 among PwCF ages ≥6 years in the 2021 U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry. We describe the absolute difference in ppFEV1 between the two reference equations by reported race and the effect of age and height on this difference. RESULTS: With the switch to GLI Global, ppFEV1 will increase for White (median increase 4.7, (IQR: 3.1; 6.4)) and Asian (2.6 (IQR: 1.6; 3.7)) individuals and decrease for Black individuals (-7.7, (IQR: -10.9; -5.2)). Other race categories will see minimal changes in median ppFEV1. Individuals with higher baseline ppFEV1 and younger age will see a greater change in ppFEV1 (i.e., a greater improvement among White and Asian individuals and a greater decline among Black individuals). CONCLUSIONS: Switching from GLI 2012 race-specific reference equations to GLI 2022 Global race-neutral equations will result in larger reductions in ppFEV1 among Black individuals with CF than increases among White and Asian people with CF.

Enhancing immunogenic responses through CDK4/6 and HIF2α inhibition in Merkel cell carcinoma.

Approximately 50% of Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) patients facing this highly aggressive skin cancer initially respond positively to PD-1-based immunotherapy. Nevertheless, the recurrence of MCC post-immunotherapy emphasizes the pressing need for more effective treatments. Recent research has highlighted Cyclin-dependent kinases 4 and 6 (CDK4/6) as pivotal cell cycle regulators gaining prominence in cancer studies. This study reveals that the CDK4/6 inhibitor, palbociclib can enhance PD-L1 gene transcription and surface expression in MCC cells by activating HIF2α. Inhibiting HIF2α with TC-S7009 effectively counteracts palbociclib-induced PD-L1 transcription and significantly intensifies cell death in MCC. Simultaneously, co-targeting CDK4/6 and HIF2α boosts ROS levels while suppressing SLC7A11, a key regulator of cellular redox balance, promoting ferroptosis- a form of immunogenic cell death linked to iron. Considering the rising importance of immunogenic cell death in immunotherapy, this strategy holds promise for improving future MCC treatments, markedly increasing immunogenic cell death various across various MCC cell lines, thus advancing cancer immunotherapy.

Lung function decline is mitigated following liver transplantation in people with cystic fibrosis: A retrospective cohort study.

There is paucity of literature on the health outcomes following liver transplantation (LT) in people with cystic fibrosis (pwCF). We aim to evaluate changes in lung function following LT in pwCF. We performed a retrospective cohort study of pwCF who underwent LT between 1987 and 2019 in the United States and Canada. Simultaneous lung-liver transplants and individuals who had lung transplant prior to LT were excluded. We analyzed pre-LT and post-LT percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second, body mass index, rates of pulmonary exacerbation, and post-LT overall survival. A total of 402 LT recipients were included. The median age of transplant was 14.9 years and 69.7% of the transplants were performed in children less than 18 years old. The rate of decline in percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second was attenuated after LT from -2.2% to -0.7% predicted per year with a difference of 1.5% predicted per year (95% CI, 0.8, 2.2; p < 0.001). Following LT, the rate of decline in body mass index was reduced, and there were fewer pulmonary exacerbations (0.6 pre vs. 0.4 post; rate ratio 0.7, p < 0.01). The median survival time post-transplant was 13.9 years and the overall probability of survival at 5 years was 77.6%. Those with higher lung function pre-LT had a lower risk of death post-LT, and those with genotypes other than F508 deletion had worse survival. LT in pwCF occurs most often in children and adolescents and is associated with a slower rate of decline in lung function and nutritional status, and a reduction in pulmonary exacerbations.

Cystic fibrosis survival outcomes following second lung transplant: The north American experience.

INTRODUCTION: Re-transplant is an option for those who develop end-stage lung disease due to rejection; however, little data exist following re-transplantation in cystic fibrosis (CF). METHODS: Data from the Canadian CF Registry and US CF Foundation Patient Registry supplemented with data from United Network for Organ Sharing were used. Individuals who underwent a 2nd lung transplant between 2005 and 2019 were included. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the probability of survival post-second transplant at 1, 3, and 5-years. RESULTS: Of those people who were waitlisted for a second transplant (N = 818), a total of 254 (31%) died waiting, 395 (48%) were transplanted and 169 (21%) people were alive on the waitlist. Median survival time after 2nd lung transplant was 3.3 years (95% CI: 2.8-4.1). The 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates were 77.4% (95% CI: 73.1-82%), 52% (95% CI: 46.7-58%) and 39.4% (95% CI: 34.1-45.6%). CONCLUSIONS: Survival following second lung transplant in CF patients is lower than estimates following the first transplant. Over half of subjects who are potentially eligible for a second transplant die without receiving a second organ. This warrants further investigation.

Impact of loss to follow-up on survival estimation for cystic fibrosis.

PURPOSE: Deaths among those lost to follow-up (LTFU) in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) are critically important to the epidemiology of cystic fibrosis (CF). Unreported deaths could impact estimates of survival if LTFU is associated with disease trajectory. METHODS: We characterized the LTFU population (1986-2017) from the CFFPR and identified deaths via linkage with the National Death Index (NDI). Median predicted survival age and conditional survival were estimated with and without additional deaths and person-time from the NDI. RESULTS: Of the 10,582 individuals LTFU in the CFFPR, 2,460 (23.2%) matched to an NDI death record. Individuals who died after LTFU with a CF diagnosis were 43% female, 91% White/non-Hispanic, 59% had advanced CF lung disease based on last CFFPR recorded forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) %predicted <40 and 18% were post-lung transplant. Median predicted survival age during the most recent period available, 2013-2017, increased from 44.3 years (95% CI: 43.2, 45.7) to 45.8 years (95% CI 44.5, 47.1) with the inclusion of NDI data. CONCLUSIONS: Inclusion of deaths and additional person-time among those LTFU changed the point estimate of median predicted survival for most time periods and increased the point estimate from 2009 onwards.

Lung Function Decline in Cystic Fibrosis: Impact of Data Availability and Modeling Strategies on Clinical Interpretations.

Rationale: Studies estimating the rate of lung function decline in cystic fibrosis have been inconsistent regarding the methods used. How the methodology used impacts the validity of the results and comparability between studies is unknown. Objectives: The Cystic Fibrosis Foundation established a work group whose tasks were to examine the impact of differing approaches to estimating the rate of decline in lung function and to provide analysis guidelines. Methods: We used a natural history cohort of 35,252 individuals with cystic fibrosis aged ⩾6 years in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR), 2003-2016. Modeling strategies using linear and nonlinear forms of marginal and mixed-effects models, which have previously quantified the rate of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) decline (percent predicted per year), were evaluated under clinically relevant scenarios of available lung function data. Scenarios varied by sample size (overall CFFPR, medium-sized cohort of 3,000 subjects, and small-sized cohort of 150), data collection/reporting frequency (encounter, quarterly, and annual), inclusion of FEV1 during pulmonary exacerbation, and follow-up length (<2 yr, 2-5 yr, entire duration). Results: Rate of FEV1 decline estimates (percent predicted per year) differed between linear marginal and mixed-effects models; overall cohort estimates (95% confidence interval) were 1.26 (1.24-1.29) and 1.40 (1.38-1.42), respectively. Marginal models consistently estimated less rapid lung function decline than mixed-effects models across scenarios, except for short-term follow-up (both were ∼1.4). Rate of decline estimates from nonlinear models diverged by age 30. Among mixed-effects models, nonlinear and stochastic terms fit best, except for short-term follow-up (<2 yr). Overall CFFPR analysis from a joint longitudinal-survival model implied that an increase in rate of decline of 1% predicted per year in FEV1 was associated with a 1.52-fold (52%) increase in the hazard of death/lung transplant, but the results exhibited immortal cohort bias. Conclusions: Differences were as high as 0.5% predicted per year between rate of decline estimates, but we found estimates were robust to lung function data availability scenarios, except short-term follow-up and older age ranges. Inconsistencies among previous study results may be attributable to inherent differences in study design, inclusion criteria, or covariate adjustment. Results-based decision points reported herein will support researchers in selecting a strategy to model lung function decline most reflective of nuanced, study-specific goals.

Cystic fibrosis prevalence in the United States and participation in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry in 2020.

BACKGROUND: The Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) collects data on individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF) in the United States (US). In 2012, the US CF population was estimated at 33,292 to 34,327 individuals, with 81-84% CFFPR participation. METHODS: In this study, we update these estimates via simulation to account for uncertainty in CF incidence by race or Hispanic ethnicity, initiation of CF newborn screening (NBS) programs by state, and updated cumulative survival for CF births 1968-2020. We defined registry participation as the proportion of individuals alive as of 2020 with any prior CFFPR participation as well as the proportion with contributing data in 2019 or 2020; we summarize CFFPR participation for those born prior to 1968. RESULTS: We estimated the 2020 prevalent CF population between 1968-2020 to be 38,804 (95% Uncertainty Interval (UI): 38,532 to 39,065) individuals, with 77% of the prevalent CF population contributing recent data. CFFPR participation differs by age (54% of those born in 1968) and exceeds >90% of the population born in 2009 or later. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate that the CFFPR remains a valid data source generalizable to the CF population. High participation among younger individuals may reflect the success of newborn screening programs and early referral to CF care. If engagement can be sustained, the percentage of individuals participating in the CFFPR will grow over time and there is an opportunity to identify factors associated with loss to follow up among older individuals to optimize the quality of the CFFPR data.

Contemporary cystic fibrosis incidence rates in Canada and the United States.

BACKGROUND: The availability of new diagnostic algorithms for cystic fibrosis (CF), changing population demographics and programs that impact family planning decisions can influence incidence rates. Thus, previously reported incidence rates in Canada and the United States (US) may be outdated. The objectives of this study were to estimate contemporary CF incidence rates in Canada and the US and to determine if the incidence rate has changed over time. METHOD: This population-based cohort study utilized data between 1995-2019 from the Canadian CF Registry (CCFR), Statistics Canada, US CF Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) data, and US Center for Disease Control (CDC) National Vital Statistics System. Incidence was estimated using the number of live CF births by year, sex, and geographic region using Poisson regression, with the number of live births used as the denominator. To account for delayed diagnoses, we imputed the proportion of diagnoses expected given historical trends, and varying rates of newborn screening (NBS) implementation by region. RESULTS: After accounting for implementation of NBS and delayed diagnoses, the estimated incidence rate for CF in 2019 was 1:3848 (95% CI: 1:3574, 1:4143) live births in Canada compared to 1:5130 (95% CI:1:4996, 1:5267) in the US. There was substantial regional variation in incidence rates within both Canada and the US. Since 1995, incidence rates have decreased at a rate of 1.6% per year in both countries (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: Contemporary CF incidence rates suggest CF incidence is lower than previously reported and varies widely within North America. This information is important for resource planning and for tracking how programs (e.g., genetic counselling, modulator availability etc.) may impact the incidence of CF moving forward.

Preserving the Phosphoproteome of Clinical Biopsies Using a Quick-Freeze Collection Device.

There is growing interest in proteomic analyses of tissue biopsies to reveal pathophysiology and identify biomarkers. The current gold standard for collecting tissue biopsies for preserving the proteome and post-translational modifications is flash freezing in liquid nitrogen (LN2). However, in many clinical settings, this is not an option due to unavailability of LN2 nor trained personnel for rapid biospecimen processing. To address this need, we developed a proof-of-concept quick-freeze prototype device to rapidly freeze biospecimens at the point-of-care to preserve the phosphoproteome without the need for LN2. Our objectives were to develop the device, demonstrate the ease of use, confirm the ability to ship through existing cold chain logistics, and evaluate the cooling performance (i.e., cool a tissue sample to <0°C in <60 seconds, below -8°C in <120 seconds, and maintain temperature <0°C for >60 minutes) in the context of preserving the proteome in a tissue biospecimen. To demonstrate feasibility, the performance of the prototype was benchmarked against flash freezing in LN2 using a murine melanoma patient-derived xenograft model subjected to total body irradiation to elicit phosphosignaling in the DNA damage response network. Tumors were harvested and quadrisected, with two parts of the tumor being snap frozen in LN2, and the remaining two parts being rapidly cooled in the prototype quick-freeze biospecimen containers. Phosphoproteins were profiled by liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry and quantified by targeted multiple reaction monitoring MS. Overall, the phosphoproteome was equivalent in biospecimens processed using the quick-freeze containers to those using the LN2 gold standard, although the measurements of a subset of phosphopeptides in the device-frozen specimens were more variable than LN2-frozen specimens. The prototype device forms the framework for development of a commercial device that will improve tissue biopsy preservation for measurement of important phosphosignaling molecules.

The prevalence of onchocerciasis in Africa and Yemen, 2000-2018: a geospatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Onchocerciasis is a disease caused by infection with Onchocerca volvulus, which is transmitted to humans via the bite of several species of black fly, and is responsible for permanent blindness or vision loss, as well as severe skin disease. Predominantly endemic in parts of Africa and Yemen, preventive chemotherapy with mass drug administration of ivermectin is the primary intervention recommended for the elimination of its transmission. METHODS: A dataset of 18,116 geo-referenced prevalence survey datapoints was used to model annual 2000-2018 infection prevalence in Africa and Yemen. Using Bayesian model-based geostatistics, we generated spatially continuous estimates of all-age 2000-2018 onchocerciasis infection prevalence at the 5 × 5-km resolution as well as aggregations to the national level, along with corresponding estimates of the uncertainty in these predictions. RESULTS: As of 2018, the prevalence of onchocerciasis infection continues to be concentrated across central and western Africa, with the highest mean estimates at the national level in Ghana (12.2%, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5.0-22.7). Mean estimates exceed 5% infection prevalence at the national level for Cameroon, Central African Republic, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis suggests that onchocerciasis infection has declined over the last two decades throughout western and central Africa. Focal areas of Angola, Cameroon, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Nigeria, South Sudan, and Uganda continue to have mean microfiladermia prevalence estimates exceeding 25%. At and above this level, the continuation or initiation of mass drug administration with ivermectin is supported. If national programs aim to eliminate onchocerciasis infection, additional surveillance or supervision of areas of predicted high prevalence would be warranted to ensure sufficiently high coverage of program interventions.

Real-world Associations of US Cystic Fibrosis Newborn Screening Programs With Nutritional and Pulmonary Outcomes.

Importance: Newborn screening (NBS) for cystic fibrosis (CF) has been universal in the US since 2010, but its association with clinical outcomes is unclear. Objective: To describe the real-world effectiveness of NBS programs for CF in the US on outcomes up to age 10 years. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a retrospective cohort study using CF Foundation Patient Registry data from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2018. The staggered implementation of NBS programs by state was used to compare longitudinal outcomes among children in the same birth cohort born before vs after the implementation of NBS for CF in their state of birth. Participants included children with an established diagnosis of CF born between January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2018, in any of the 44 states that implemented NBS for CF between 2003 and 2010. Data were analyzed from October 5, 2020, to April 22, 2022. Exposures: Birth before vs after the implementation of NBS for CF in the state of birth. Main Outcomes and Measures: Longitudinal trajectory of height and weight percentiles from diagnosis, lung function (forced expiratory volume in 1 second, [FEV1] percent predicted) from age 6 years, and age at initial and chronic infection with Pseudomonas aeruginosa using linear mixed-effects and time-to-event models adjusting for birth cohort and potential confounders. Results: A total of 9571 participants (4713 female participants [49.2%]) were eligible for inclusion, with 4510 (47.1%) in the pre-NBS cohort. NBS was associated with higher weight and height percentiles in the first year of life (weight, 6.0; 95% CI, 3.1-8.4; height, 6.6; 95% CI, 3.8-9.3), but these differences decreased with age. There was no association between NBS and FEV1 at age 6 years, but the percent-predicted FEV1 did increase more rapidly with age in the post-NBS cohort. NBS was associated with older age at chronic P aeruginosa infection (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.54-0.89) but not initial P aeruginosa infection (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.77-1.01). Conclusions and Relevance: NBS for CF in the US was associated with improved nutritional status up to age 10 years, a more rapid increase in lung function, and delayed chronic P aeruginosa infection. In the future, as highly effective modulator therapies become available for infants with CF, NBS will allow for presymptomatic initiation of these disease-modifying therapies before irreversible organ damage.

Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning.

Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.

The effect of HIV infection and exposure on cognitive development in the first two years of life in Malawi.

OBJECTIVES: To assess longitudinal patterns and determinants of cognitive development in infants living with HIV, infants exposed to maternal HIV infection, and HIV-unexposed infants. METHODS: Prospective, community-based cohort study of 555 Malawian infants aged 8 weeks to 24 months, using multivariable linear mixed-effects regression models with random intercepts to analyze repeated measures of cognitive function. RESULTS: At 3 months of age, cognitive scores on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development (BSID 3rd edition) were lower in the 96 HIV-infected infants (mean = 14.1 (SD:4.8)) compared to the 289 HIV-exposed (mean = 16.5 (SD:3.7)) and the 170 unexposed infants (mean = 17.5 (SD:3.3)). Over the first two years of life, the small deficit in cognitive development of infants living with HIV who survived and remained in care did not increase (mean score 52.9 among HIV-infected vs 55.6 among HIV unexposed). In multivariable analysis, malnutrition and a more advanced clinical infant HIV stage had a negative impact on cognition at age 3, while financial security, care by the biological mother, and ART for mother and child were associated with better cognitive status at this young age. The positive influence of maternal ART reversed with age. CONCLUSIONS: Malawian infants exposed to HIV had a cognitive development that was similar to their unexposed peers in the first two years of life, while that of HIV infected infants lagged behind from the start. Early initiation of effective ART in all HIV infected mothers and infants, and prevention of infant malnutrition are important to safeguard cognitive development of children affected by HIV.

Mapping the global distribution of podoconiosis: Applying an evidence consensus approach.

BACKGROUND: Podoconiosis is a type of elephantiasis characterised by swelling of the lower legs. It is often confused with other causes of tropical lymphedema and its global distribution is uncertain. Here we synthesise the available information on the presence of podoconiosis to produce evidence consensus maps of its global geographical distribution. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We systematically searched available data on podoconiosis in SCOPUS and MEDLINE from inception, updated to 10 May, 2019, and identified observational and population-based studies reporting podoconiosis. To establish existence of podoconiosis, we used the number of cases reported in studies and prevalence data with geographical locations. We then developed an index to assess evidence quality and reliability, assigning each country an evidence consensus score. Using these summary scores, we then developed a contemporary global map of national-level podoconiosis status. There is evidence of podoconiosis in 17 countries (12 in Africa, three in Latin America, and two in Asia) and consensus on presence in six countries (all in Africa). We have identified countries where surveillance is required to further define the presence or absence of podoconiosis. We have highlighted areas where evidence is currently insufficient or conflicting, and from which more evidence is needed. CONCLUSION: The global distribution of podoconiosis is not clearly known; the disease extent and limits provided here inform the best contemporary map of the distribution of podoconiosis globally from available data. These results help identify surveillance needs, direct future mapping activities, and inform prevention plans and burden estimation of podoconiosis.

Ecological and Socioeconomic Predictors of Transmission Assessment Survey Failure for Lymphatic Filariasis.

The transmission assessment survey (TAS) is recommended to determine whether cessation of mass drug administration (MDA) for lymphatic filariasis (LF) is warranted. Ministries of health typically implement TASs in evaluation units (EUs) that have had more than five rounds of annual MDA. Under TAS guidelines, sample size calculations determine a decision value: if the number of individuals testing positive exceeds this threshold, then MDA continues in the EU. The objective of this study was to determine whether fine scale geospatial covariates could be used to identify predictors of TAS failure. We geo-referenced 746 TAS EUs, of which 65 failed and extracted geospatial covariates using R to estimate odds of failure. We implemented stepwise backward elimination to select covariates for inclusion in a logistic regression to estimate the odds of TAS failure. Covariates included environmental predictors (aridity, distance to fresh water, elevation, and enhanced vegetation index), cumulative rounds of MDA, measures of urbanicity and access, LF species, and baseline prevalence. Presence of Brugia was significantly associated with TAS failure (odds ratio [OR]: 4.79, 95% CI: 2.52-9.07), as was population density (OR: 2.91, 95% CI: 1.06-7.98). The presence of nighttime lights was highly protective against failure (OR: 0.22, 95% CI: 0.10-0.50), as was an increase in elevation (OR: 0.36, 95% CI: 0.18-0.732). This work identifies predictors associated with TAS failure at the EU areal level, given the data presently available, and also identifies the need for more granular data to conduct a more robust assessment of these predictors.