Pulmonary embolism and deep venous thrombosis after COVID-19: long-term risk in a population-based cohort study.

Background: Venous thromboembolism (VTE) (pulmonary embolism (PE) or deep venous thrombosis (DVT)) is common during acute COVID-19. Long-term excess risk has not yet been established. Objective: To study long-term VTE risk after COVID-19. Methods: Swedish citizens aged 18-84 years, hospitalized and/or testing positive for COVID-19 between January 1, 2020, and September 11, 2021 (exposed), stratified by initial hospitalization, were compared to matched (1:5) non-exposed population-derived subjects without COVID-19. Outcomes were incident VTE, PE or DVT recorded within 60, 60-<180, and ≥180 days. Cox regression was used for evaluation and a model adjusted for age, sex, comorbidities and socioeconomic markers developed to control for confounders. Results: Among exposed patients, 48,861 were hospitalized for COVID-19 (mean age 60.6 years) and 894,121 were without hospitalization (mean age 41.4 years). Among patients hospitalized for COVID-19, fully adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) during 60-<180 days were 6.05 (95% confidence interval (CI) 4.80─7.62) for PE and 3.97 (CI 2.96─5.33) for DVT, compared to non-exposed with corresponding estimates among COVID-19 without hospitalization 1.17 (CI 1.01─1.35) and 0.99 (CI 0.86─1.15), based on 475 and 2,311 VTE events, respectively. Long-term (≥180 days) HRs in patients hospitalized for COVID-19 were 2.01 (CI 1.51─2.68) for PE and 1.46 (CI 1.05─2.01) for DVT while non-hospitalized had similar risk to non-exposed, based on 467 and 2,030 VTE events, respectively. Conclusions: Patients hospitalized for COVID-19 retained an elevated excess risk of VTE, mainly PE, after 180 days, while long-term risk of VTE in individuals with COVID-19 without hospitalization was similar to the non-exposed.

Age and sex differences in cause-specific excess mortality and years of life lost associated with COVID-19 infection in the Swedish population.

BACKGROUND: Estimating excess mortality and years of life lost (YLL) attributed to coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) infection provides a comprehensive picture of the mortality burden on society. We aimed to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on age- and sex-specific excess mortality and YLL in Sweden during the first 17 months of the pandemic. METHODS: In this population-based observational study, we calculated age- and sex-specific excess all-cause mortality and excess YLL during 2020 and the first 5 months of 2021 and cause-specific death [deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, other causes and deaths excluding COVID-19] in 2020 compared with an average baseline for 2017-19 in the whole Swedish population. RESULTS: COVID-19 deaths contributed 9.9% of total deaths (98 441 deaths, 960 305 YLL) in 2020, accounting for 75 151 YLL (7.7 YLL/death). There were 2672 (5.7%) and 1408 (3.0%) excess deaths, and 19 141 (3.8%) and 3596 (0.8%) excess YLL in men and women, respectively. Men aged 65-110 years and women aged 75-110 years were the greatest contributors. Fewer deaths and YLL from CVD, cancer and other causes were observed in 2020 compared with the baseline adjusted to the population size in 2020. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the baseline, excess mortality and YLL from all causes were experienced in Sweden during 2020, with a higher excess observed in men than in women, indicating that more men died at a younger age while more women died at older ages than expected. A notable reduction in deaths and YLL due to CVD suggests a displacement effect from CVD to COVID-19.

COVID-19 in people aged 18-64 in Sweden in the first year of the pandemic: Key factors for severe disease and death.

Background: Studies on risk factors for severe COVID-19 in people of working age have generally not included non-working persons or established population attributable fractions (PAFs) for occupational and other factors. Objectives: We describe the effect of job-related, sociodemographic, and other exposures on the incidence, relative risks and PAFs of severe COVID-19 in individuals aged 18-64. Methods: We conducted a registry-based study in Swedish citizens aged 18-64 from 1 January 2020 to 1 February 2021 with respect to COVID-19-related hospitalizations and death. Results: Of 6,205,459 persons, 272,043 (7.5%) were registered as infected, 3399 (0.05%) needed intensive care, and 620 (0.01%) died, with an estimated case fatality rate of 0.06% over the last 4-month period when testing was adequate. Non-Nordic origin was associated with a RR for need of intensive care of 3·13, 95%CI 2·91-3·36, and a PAF of 32·2% after adjustment for age, sex, work, region and comorbidities. In a second model with occupation as main exposure, and adjusted for age, sex, region, comorbidities and origin, essential workers had an RR of 1·51, 95%CI, 1·35-1·6, blue-collar workers 1·18, 95%CI 1·06-1·31, school staff 1·21, 95%CI 1·01-1·46, and health and social care workers 1·89, 95%CI 1·67-2·135) compared with people able to work from home, with altogether about 13% of the PAF associated with these occupations. Essential workers and blue-collar workers, but no other job categories had higher risk of death, adjusted RRs of 1·79, 95%CI 1·34-2·38 and 1·37, 95%CI 1·04-1·81, with adjusted PAFs of altogether 9%. Conclusion: Among people of working age in Sweden, overall mortality and case fatality were low. Occupations that require physical presence at work were associated with elevated risk of needing intensive care for COVID-19, with 14% cases attributable to this factor, and 9% of deaths.

Severe COVID-19 in people 55 and older during the first year of the pandemic in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to many contacts is the main risk factor for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection, while risk of serious disease and death is chiefly determined by old age and comorbidities. Relative and population-attributable fractions (PAFs) of multiple medical and social exposures for COVID-19 outcomes have not been evaluated among older adults. OBJECTIVES: We describe the effect of multiple exposures on the odds of testing positive for the virus and of severe disease (hospital care or death) and PAFs in Swedish citizens aged 55 years and above. METHODS: We used national registers to follow all citizens aged 55 years and above with respect to (1) testing positive, (2) hospitalization, and (3) death between 31 January 2020 and 1 February 2021. RESULTS: Of 3,410,241 persons, 156,017 (4.6%, mean age 68.3 years) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, while 35,999 (1.1%, mean age 76.7 years) were hospitalized or died (12,384 deaths, 0.4%, mean age 84.0 years). Among the total cohort, the proportion living without home care or long-term care was 98.8% among persons aged 55-64 and 22.1% of those aged 95 and above. After multiple adjustment, home care and long-term care were associated with odds ratios of 7.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.8-9.1) and 22.5 (95% CI 19.6-25.7) for mortality, with PAFs of 21.9% (95% CI 20.9-22.9) and 33.3% (95% CI 32.4-34.3), respectively. CONCLUSION: Among Swedish residents aged 55 years and above, those with home care or long-term care had markedly increased risk for COVID-19 death during the first year of the pandemic, with over 50% of deaths attributable to these factors.

BMI, sex and outcomes in hospitalised patients in western Sweden during the COVID-19 pandemic.

High body mass index (BMI) is associated with severe COVID-19 but findings regarding the need of intensive care (IC) and mortality are mixed. Using electronic health records, we identified all patients in western Sweden hospitalised with COVID-19 to evaluate 30-day mortality or assignment to IC. Adjusted logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for outcomes. Of totally 9761 patients, BMI was available in 7325 (75%), included in the study. There was a marked inverse association between BMI and age (underweight and normal weight patients were on average 78 and 75 years, whereas overweight and obese were 68 and 62 years). While older age, male sex and several comorbidities associated with higher mortality after multivariable adjustment, BMI did not. However, BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 (OR 1.46, 95% CI 1.21-1.75) was associated with need of IC; this association was restricted to women (BMI ≥ 30; OR 1.96 (95% CI 1.41-2.73), and not significant in men; OR 1.22 (95% CI 0.97-1.54). In this comprehensive hospital population with COVID-19, BMI was not associated with 30-day mortality risk. Among the obese, women, but not men, had a higher risk of assignment to IC.

Concurrent climate extremes in the key wheat producing regions of the world.

Climate extremes have profound impacts on key socio-economic sectors such as agriculture. In a changing climate context, characterised by an intensification of these extremes and where the population is expected to grow, exposure and vulnerability must be accurately assessed. However, most risk assessments analyse extremes independently, thus potentially being overconfident in the resilience of the socio-economic sectors. Here, we propose a novel approach to defining and characterising concurrent climate extremes (i.e. extremes occurring within a specific temporal lag), which is able to identify spatio-temporal dependences without making any strict assumptions. The method is applied to large-scale heat stress and drought events in the key wheat producing regions of the world, as these extremes can cause serious yield losses and thus trigger market shocks. Wheat regions likely to have concurrent extremes (heat stress and drought events) are identified, as well as regions independent of each other or inhibiting each other in terms of these extreme events. This tool may be integrated in all risk assessments but could also be used to explore global climate teleconnections.