The ADnet Bayesian belief network for alder decline: Integrating empirical data and expert knowledge.

The globalization in plant material trading has caused the emergence of invasive pests in many ecosystems, such as the alder pathogen Phytophthora ×alni in European riparian forests. Due to the ecological importance of alder to the functioning of rivers and the increasing incidence of P. ×alni-induced alder decline, effective and accessible decision tools are required to help managers and stakeholders control the disease. This study proposes a Bayesian belief network methodology to integrate diverse information on the factors affecting the survival and infection ability of P. ×alni in riparian habitats to help predict and manage disease incidence. The resulting Alder Decline Network (ADnet) management tool integrates information about alder decline from scientific literature, expert knowledge and empirical data. Expert knowledge was gathered through elicitation techniques that included 19 experts from 12 institutions and 8 countries. An original dataset was created covering 1189 European locations, from which P. ×alni occurrence was modeled based on bioclimatic variables. ADnet uncertainty was evaluated through its sensitivity to changes in states and three scenario analyses. The ADnet tool indicated that mild temperatures and high precipitation are key factors favoring pathogen survival. Flood timing, water velocity, and soil type have the strongest influence on disease incidence. ADnet can support ecosystem management decisions and knowledge transfer to address P. ×alni-induced alder decline at local or regional levels across Europe. Management actions such as avoiding the planting of potentially infected trees or removing man-made structures that increase the flooding period in disease-affected sites could decrease the incidence of alder disease in riparian forests and limit its spread. The coverage of the ADnet tool can be expanded by updating data on the pathogen's occurrence, particularly from its distributional limits. Research on the role of genetic variability in alder susceptibility and pathogen virulence may also help improve future ADnet versions.

Lack of nitrogen as a causing agent of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii intermittent blooms in a small tropical reservoir.

Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii is the focus of many studies due to its toxicity and increasing blooms frequency. The comprehension of the factors that might trigger these blooms is fundamental for the maintenance of good freshwater quality. To better understand the autoecology of C. raciborskii and to identify the factors controlling its dominance, general limnological features were evaluated in Pedalinhos reservoir, Brazil. Samplings were performed monthly between 2011 and 2013. Although C. raciborskii is considered a relatively perennial species in the tropics, it presented an interesting nonunimodal variation, with biovolume varying from 0 to c. 30 mm³ L⁻¹ in short time intervals (< 30 days). These temporal trends allowed the evaluation of the isolated effects of nonclimatic variables. Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii was connected with several variables, but nitrogen was the major determinant of its dynamics. Blooms were observed when dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) was scarce (< 50 µg L⁻¹), mainly in relation to the availability of phosphorus and total-N (DIN : total-P < 3 and DIN : total-N < 0.04). This paper contributes to establish strategies to avoid C. raciborskii blooms, suggesting that a management in P levels would be not sufficient. It is necessary to consider N availability to avoid its dominance in the reservoir.