cloneRate: fast estimation of single-cell clonal dynamics using coalescent theory.

MOTIVATION: While evolutionary approaches to medicine show promise, measuring evolution itself is difficult due to experimental constraints and the dynamic nature of body systems. In cancer evolution, continuous observation of clonal architecture is impossible, and longitudinal samples from multiple timepoints are rare. Increasingly available DNA sequencing datasets at single-cell resolution enable the reconstruction of past evolution using mutational history, allowing for a better understanding of dynamics prior to detectable disease. There is an unmet need for an accurate, fast, and easy-to-use method to quantify clone growth dynamics from these datasets. RESULTS: We derived methods based on coalescent theory for estimating the net growth rate of clones using either reconstructed phylogenies or the number of shared mutations. We applied and validated our analytical methods for estimating the net growth rate of clones, eliminating the need for complex simulations used in previous methods. When applied to hematopoietic data, we show that our estimates may have broad applications to improve mechanistic understanding and prognostic ability. Compared to clones with a single or unknown driver mutation, clones with multiple drivers have significantly increased growth rates (median 0.94 versus 0.25 per year; P = 1.6×10-6). Further, stratifying patients with a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN) by the growth rate of their fittest clone shows that higher growth rates are associated with shorter time to MPN diagnosis (median 13.9 versus 26.4 months; P = 0.0026). AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: We developed a publicly available R package, cloneRate, to implement our methods (Package website: https://bdj34.github.io/cloneRate/). Source code: https://github.com/bdj34/cloneRate/.

CNETML: maximum likelihood inference of phylogeny from copy number profiles of multiple samples.

Phylogenetic trees based on copy number profiles from multiple samples of a patient are helpful to understand cancer evolution. Here, we develop a new maximum likelihood method, CNETML, to infer phylogenies from such data. CNETML is the first program to jointly infer the tree topology, node ages, and mutation rates from total copy numbers of longitudinal samples. Our extensive simulations suggest CNETML performs well on copy numbers relative to ploidy and under slight violation of model assumptions. The application of CNETML to real data generates results consistent with previous discoveries and provides novel early copy number events for further investigation.

Autoimmune alleles at the major histocompatibility locus modify melanoma susceptibility.

Autoimmunity and cancer represent two different aspects of immune dysfunction. Autoimmunity is characterized by breakdowns in immune self-tolerance, while impaired immune surveillance can allow for tumorigenesis. The class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC-I), which displays derivatives of the cellular peptidome for immune surveillance by CD8+ T cells, serves as a common genetic link between these conditions. As melanoma-specific CD8+ T cells have been shown to target melanocyte-specific peptide antigens more often than melanoma-specific antigens, we investigated whether vitiligo- and psoriasis-predisposing MHC-I alleles conferred a melanoma-protective effect. In individuals with cutaneous melanoma from both The Cancer Genome Atlas (n = 451) and an independent validation set (n = 586), MHC-I autoimmune-allele carrier status was significantly associated with a later age of melanoma diagnosis. Furthermore, MHC-I autoimmune-allele carriers were significantly associated with decreased risk of developing melanoma in the Million Veteran Program (OR = 0.962, p = 0.024). Existing melanoma polygenic risk scores (PRSs) did not predict autoimmune-allele carrier status, suggesting these alleles provide orthogonal risk-relevant information. Mechanisms of autoimmune protection were neither associated with improved melanoma-driver mutation association nor improved gene-level conserved antigen presentation relative to common alleles. However, autoimmune alleles showed higher affinity relative to common alleles for particular windows of melanocyte-conserved antigens and loss of heterozygosity of autoimmune alleles caused the greatest reduction in presentation for several conserved antigens across individuals with loss of HLA alleles. Overall, this study presents evidence that MHC-I autoimmune-risk alleles modulate melanoma risk unaccounted for by current PRSs.

Long-term outcomes of pouch surveillance and risk of neoplasia in familial adenomatous polyposis.

BACKGROUND: Long-term pouch surveillance outcomes for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) are unknown. We aimed to quantify surveillance outcomes and to determine which of selected possible predictive factors are associated with pouch dysplasia. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of collected data on 249 patients was performed, analyzing potential risk factors for the development of adenomas or advanced lesions ( ≥ 10 mm/high grade dysplasia (HGD)/cancer) in the pouch body and cuff using Cox proportional hazards models. Kaplan-Meier analyses included landmark time-point analyses at 10 years after surgery to predict the future risk of advanced lesions. RESULTS: Of 249 patients, 76 % developed at least one pouch body adenoma, with 16 % developing an advanced pouch body lesion; 18 % developed an advanced cuff lesion. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a 10-year lag before most advanced lesions developed; cumulative incidence of 2.8 % and 6.4 % at 10 years in the pouch body and cuff, respectively. Landmark analysis suggested the presence of adenomas prior to the 10-year point was associated with subsequent development of advanced lesions in the pouch body (hazard ratio [HR] 4.8, 95 %CI 1.6-14.1; P = 0.004) and cuff (HR 6.8, 95 %CI 2.5-18.3; P < 0.001). There were two HGD and four cancer cases in the cuff and one pouch body cancer; all cases of cancer/HGD that had prior surveillance were preceded by ≥ 10-mm adenomas. CONCLUSIONS: Pouch adenoma progression is slow and most advanced lesions occur after 10 years. HGD and cancer were rare events. Pouch phenotype in the first decade is associated with the future risk of developing advanced lesions and may guide personalized surveillance beyond 10 years.

The mutational signatures of formalin fixation on the human genome.

Clinical archives of patient material near-exclusively consist of formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded (FFPE) blocks. The ability to precisely characterise mutational signatures from FFPE-derived DNA has tremendous translational potential. However, sequencing of DNA derived from FFPE material is known to be riddled with artefacts. Here we derive genome-wide mutational signatures caused by formalin fixation. We show that the FFPE-signature is highly similar to signature 30 (the signature of Base Excision Repair deficiency due to NTHL1 mutations), and chemical repair of DNA lesions leads to a signature highly similar to signature 1 (clock-like signature due to spontaneous deamination of methylcytosine). We demonstrate that using uncorrected mutational catalogues of FFPE samples leads to major mis-assignment of signature activities. To correct for this, we introduce FFPEsig, a computational algorithm to rectify the formalin-induced artefacts in the mutational catalogue. We demonstrate that FFPEsig enables accurate mutational signature analysis both in simulated and whole-genome sequenced FFPE cancer samples. FFPEsig thus provides an opportunity to unlock additional clinical potential of archival patient tissues.

AI-assisted discovery of an ethnicity-influenced driver of cell transformation in esophageal and gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinomas.

Although Barrett's metaplasia of the esophagus (BE) is the only known precursor lesion to esophageal adenocarcinomas (EACs), drivers of cellular transformation in BE remain incompletely understood. We use an artificial intelligence-guided network approach to study EAC initiation and progression. Key predictions are subsequently validated in a human organoid model, in patient-derived biopsy specimens of BE, a case-control study of genomics of BE progression, and in a cross-sectional study of 113 patients with BE and EACs. Our model classified healthy esophagus from BE and BE from EACs in several publicly available gene expression data sets (n = 932 samples). The model confirmed that all EACs must originate from BE and pinpointed a CXCL8/IL8↔neutrophil immune microenvironment as a driver of cellular transformation in EACs and gastroesophageal junction adenocarcinomas. This driver is prominent in White individuals but is notably absent in African Americans (AAs). Network-derived gene signatures, independent signatures of neutrophil processes, CXCL8/IL8 expression, and an absolute neutrophil count (ANC) are associated with risk of progression. SNPs associated with changes in ANC by ethnicity (e.g., benign ethnic neutropenia [BEN]) modify that risk. Findings define a racially influenced immunological basis for cell transformation and suggest that BEN in AAs may be a deterrent to BE→EAC progression.

Cancer's second genome: Microbial cancer diagnostics and redefining clonal evolution as a multispecies process: Humans and their tumors are not aseptic, and the multispecies nature of cancer modulates clinical care and clonal evolution: Humans and their tumors are not aseptic, and the multispecies nature of cancer modulates clinical care and clonal evolution.

The presence and role of microbes in human cancers has come full circle in the last century. Tumors are no longer considered aseptic, but implications for cancer biology and oncology remain underappreciated. Opportunities to identify and build translational diagnostics, prognostics, and therapeutics that exploit cancer's second genome-the metagenome-are manifold, but require careful consideration of microbial experimental idiosyncrasies that are distinct from host-centric methods. Furthermore, the discoveries of intracellular and intra-metastatic cancer bacteria necessitate fundamental changes in describing clonal evolution and selection, reflecting bidirectional interactions with non-human residents. Reconsidering cancer clonality as a multispecies process similarly holds key implications for understanding metastasis and prognosing therapeutic resistance while providing rational guidance for the next generation of bacterial cancer therapies. Guided by these new findings and challenges, this Review describes opportunities to exploit cancer's metagenome in oncology and proposes an evolutionary framework as a first step towards modeling multispecies cancer clonality. Also see the video abstract here: https://youtu.be/-WDtIRJYZSs.

Review article: Lynch Syndrome-a mechanistic and clinical management update.

BACKGROUND: Lynch syndrome (LS) is an autosomal dominant familial condition caused by a pathogenic variant (PV) in a DNA mismatch repair gene, which then predisposes carriers to various cancers. AIM: To review the pathogenesis, clinical presentation, differential diagnosis and clinical strategies for detection and management of LS. METHODS: A narrative review synthesising knowledge from published literature, as well as current National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines for management of LS was conducted. RESULTS: LS tumours are characterised by unique pathogenesis, ultimately resulting in hypermutation, microsatellite instability and high immunogenicity that has significant implications for cancer risk, clinical presentation, treatment and surveillance. LS is one of the most common hereditary causes of cancer, and about 1 in 279 individuals carry a PV in an LS gene that predisposes to associated cancers. Individuals with LS have increased risks for colorectal, endometrial and other cancers, with significant variation in lifetime risk by LS-associated gene. CONCLUSIONS: As genetic testing becomes more widespread, the number of individuals identified with LS is expected to increase in the population. Understanding the pathogenesis of LS informs current strategies for detection and clinical management, and also guides future areas for clinical innovation. Unravelling the mechanisms by which these tumours evolve may help to more precisely tailor management by the gene involved.

Multicentre derivation and validation of a colitis-associated colorectal cancer risk prediction web tool.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with ulcerative colitis (UC) diagnosed with low-grade dysplasia (LGD) have increased risk of developing advanced neoplasia (AN: high-grade dysplasia or colorectal cancer). We aimed to develop and validate a predictor of AN risk in patients with UC with LGD and create a visual web tool to effectively communicate the risk. DESIGN: In our retrospective multicentre validated cohort study, adult patients with UC with an index diagnosis of LGD, identified from four UK centres between 2001 and 2019, were followed until progression to AN. In the discovery cohort (n=246), a multivariate risk prediction model was derived from clinicopathological features using Cox regression. Validation used data from three external centres (n=198). The validated model was embedded in a web tool to calculate patient-specific risk. RESULTS: Four clinicopathological variables were significantly associated with AN progression in the discovery cohort: endoscopically visible LGD >1 cm (HR 2.7; 95% CI 1.2 to 5.9), unresectable or incomplete endoscopic resection (HR 3.4; 95% CI 1.6 to 7.4), moderate/severe histological inflammation within 5 years of LGD diagnosis (HR 3.1; 95% CI 1.5 to 6.7) and multifocality (HR 2.9; 95% CI 1.3 to 6.2). In the validation cohort, this four-variable model accurately predicted future AN cases with overall calibration Observed/Expected=1.01 (95% CI 0.64 to 1.52), and achieved 100% specificity for the lowest risk group over 13 years of available follow-up. CONCLUSION: Multicohort validation confirms that patients with large, unresected, multifocal LGD and recent moderate/severe inflammation are at highest risk of developing AN. Personalised risk prediction provided via the Ulcerative Colitis-Cancer Risk Estimator ( www.UC-CaRE.uk ) can support treatment decision-making.

Challenges in Determining the Role of Microbiome Evolution in Barrett's Esophagus and Progression to Esophageal Adenocarcinoma.

Esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) claims the lives of half of patients within the first year of diagnosis, and its incidence has rapidly increased since the 1970s despite extensive research into etiological factors. The changes in the microbiome within the distal esophagus in modern populations may help explain the growth in cases that other common EAC risk factors together cannot fully explain. The precursor to EAC is Barrett's esophagus (BE), a metaplasia adapted to a reflux-mediated microenvironment that can be challenging to diagnose in patients who do not undergo endoscopic screening. Non-invasive procedures to detect microbial communities in saliva, oral swabs and brushings from the distal esophagus allow us to characterize taxonomic differences in bacterial population abundances within patients with BE versus controls, and may provide an alternative means of BE detection. Unique microbial communities have been identified across healthy esophagus, BE, and various stages of progression to EAC, but studies determining dynamic changes in these communities, including migration from proximal stomach and oral cavity niches, and their potential causal role in cancer formation are lacking. Helicobacter pylori is negatively associated with EAC, and the absence of this species has been implicated in the evolution of chromosomal instability, a main driver of EAC, but joint analyses of microbiome and host genomes are needed. Acknowledging technical challenges, future studies on the prediction of microbial dynamics and evolution within BE and the progression to EAC will require larger esophageal microbiome datasets, improved bioinformatics pipelines, and specialized mathematical models for analysis.

Modeling historic incidence trends implies early field cancerization in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Patterns of cancer incidence, viewed over extended time periods, reveal important aspects of multistage carcinogenesis. Here we show how a multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) model for cancer can be harnessed to identify biological processes that shape the surprisingly dynamic and disparate incidence patterns of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in the US population. While the dramatic rise in esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in the US has been largely attributed to reflux related increases in the prevalence of Barrett's esophagus (BE), the premalignant field in which most EAC are thought to arise, only scant evidence exists for field cancerization contributing to ESCC. Our analyses of incidence patterns suggest that ESCC is associated with a premalignant field that may develop very early in life. Although the risk of ESCC, which is substantially higher in Blacks than Whites, is generally assumed to be associated with late-childhood and adult exposures to carcinogens, such as from tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption and various industrial exposures, the temporal trends we identify for ESCC suggest an onset distribution of field-defects before age 10, most strongly among Blacks. These trends differ significantly in shape and strength from field-defect trends that we estimate for US Whites. Moreover, the rates of ESCC-predisposing field-defects predicted by the model for cohorts of black children are decreasing for more recent birth cohorts (for Blacks born after 1940). These results point to a potential etiologic role of factors acting early in life, perhaps related to nutritional deficiencies, in the development of ESCC and its predisposing field-defect. Such factors may explain some of the striking racial differences seen in ESCC incidence patterns over time in the US.

Optimal Timing for Cancer Screening and Adaptive Surveillance Using Mathematical Modeling.

Cancer screening and early detection efforts have been partially successful in reducing incidence and mortality, but many improvements are needed. Although current medical practice is informed by epidemiologic studies and experts, the decisions for guidelines are ultimately ad hoc. We propose here that quantitative optimization of protocols can potentially increase screening success and reduce overdiagnosis. Mathematical modeling of the stochastic process of cancer evolution can be used to derive and optimize the timing of clinical screens so that the probability is maximal that a patient is screened within a certain "window of opportunity" for intervention when early cancer development may be observable. Alternative to a strictly empirical approach or microsimulations of a multitude of possible scenarios, biologically based mechanistic modeling can be used for predicting when best to screen and begin adaptive surveillance. We introduce a methodology for optimizing screening, assessing potential risks, and quantifying associated costs to healthcare using multiscale models. As a case study in Barrett's esophagus, these methods were applied for a model of esophageal adenocarcinoma that was previously calibrated to U.S. cancer registry data. Optimal screening ages for patients with symptomatic gastroesophageal reflux disease were older (58 for men and 64 for women) than what is currently recommended (age > 50 years). These ages are in a cost-effective range to start screening and were independently validated by data used in current guidelines. Collectively, our framework captures critical aspects of cancer evolution within patients with Barrett's esophagus for a more personalized screening design. SIGNIFICANCE: This study demonstrates how mathematical modeling of cancer evolution can be used to optimize screening regimes, with the added potential to improve surveillance regimes. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/81/4/1123/F1.large.jpg.

Computational modelling suggests that Barrett's oesophagus may be the precursor of all oesophageal adenocarcinomas.

OBJECTIVE: Barrett's oesophagus (BE) is a known precursor to oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) but current clinical data have not been consolidated to address whether BE is the origin of all incident OAC, which would reinforce evidence for BE screening efforts. We aimed to answer whether all expected prevalent BE, diagnosed and undiagnosed, could account for all incident OACs in the US cancer registry data. DESIGN: We used a multiscale computational model of OAC that includes the evolutionary process from normal oesophagus through BE in individuals from the US population. The model was previously calibrated to fit Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results cancer incidence curves. Here, we also utilised age-specific and sex-specific US census data for numbers at-risk. The primary outcome for model validation was the expected number of OAC cases for a given calendar year. Secondary outcomes included the comparisons of resulting model-predicted prevalence of BE and BE-to-OAC progression to the observed prevalence and progression rates. RESULTS: The model estimated the total number of OAC cases from BE in 2010 was 9970 (95% CI: 9140 to 11 980), which recapitulates nearly all OAC cases from population data. The model simultaneously predicted 8%-9% BE prevalence in high-risk males age 45-55, and 0.1%-0.2% non-dysplastic BE-to-OAC annual progression in males, consistent with clinical studies. CONCLUSION: There are likely few additional OAC cases arising in the US population outside those expected from individuals with BE. Effective screening of high-risk patients could capture the majority of population destined for OAC progression and potentially decrease mortality through early detection and curative removal of small (pre)cancers during surveillance.

Specific Mechanisms of Chromosomal Instability Indicate Therapeutic Sensitivities in High-Grade Serous Ovarian Carcinoma.

Chromosomal instability (CIN) comprises continual gain and loss of chromosomes or parts of chromosomes and occurs in the majority of cancers, often conferring poor prognosis. Because of a scarcity of functional studies and poor understanding of how genetic or gene expression landscapes connect to specific CIN mechanisms, causes of CIN in most cancer types remain unknown. High-grade serous ovarian carcinoma (HGSC), the most common subtype of ovarian cancer, is the major cause of death due to gynecologic malignancy in the Western world, with chemotherapy resistance developing in almost all patients. HGSC exhibits high rates of chromosomal aberrations and knowledge of causative mechanisms would represent an important step toward combating this disease. Here we perform the first in-depth functional characterization of mechanisms driving CIN in HGSC in seven cell lines that accurately recapitulate HGSC genetics. Multiple mechanisms coexisted to drive CIN in HGSC, including elevated microtubule dynamics and DNA replication stress that can be partially rescued to reduce CIN by low doses of paclitaxel and nucleoside supplementation, respectively. Distinct CIN mechanisms indicated relationships with HGSC-relevant therapy including PARP inhibition and microtubule-targeting agents. Comprehensive genomic and transcriptomic profiling revealed deregulation of various genes involved in genome stability but were not directly predictive of specific CIN mechanisms, underscoring the importance of functional characterization to identify causes of CIN. Overall, we show that HGSC CIN is complex and suggest that specific CIN mechanisms could be used as functional biomarkers to indicate appropriate therapy. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings characterize multiple deregulated mechanisms of genome stability that lead to CIN in ovarian cancer and demonstrate the benefit of integrating analysis of said mechanisms into predictions of therapy response.

A novel use of random priming-based single-strand library preparation for whole genome sequencing of formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue samples.

The desire to analyse limited amounts of biological material, historic samples and rare cell populations has collectively driven the need for efficient methods for whole genome sequencing (WGS) of limited amounts of poor quality DNA. Most protocols are designed to recover double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) by ligating sequencing adaptors to dsDNA with or without subsequent polymerase chain reaction amplification of the library. While this is sufficient for many applications, limited DNA requires a method that can recover both single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) and dsDNA. Here, we present a WGS library preparation method, called 'degraded DNA adaptor tagging' (DDAT), adapted from a protocol designed for whole genome bisulfite sequencing. This method uses two rounds of random primer extension to recover both ssDNA and dsDNA. We show that by using DDAT we can generate WGS data from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples using as little as 2 ng of highly degraded DNA input. Furthermore, DDAT WGS data quality was higher for all FFPE samples tested compared to data produced using a standard WGS library preparation method. Therefore, the DDAT method has potential to unlock WGS data from DNA previously considered impossible to sequence, broadening opportunities to understand the role of genetics in health and disease.

The 2019 mathematical oncology roadmap.

Whether the nom de guerre is Mathematical Oncology, Computational or Systems Biology, Theoretical Biology, Evolutionary Oncology, Bioinformatics, or simply Basic Science, there is no denying that mathematics continues to play an increasingly prominent role in cancer research. Mathematical Oncology-defined here simply as the use of mathematics in cancer research-complements and overlaps with a number of other fields that rely on mathematics as a core methodology. As a result, Mathematical Oncology has a broad scope, ranging from theoretical studies to clinical trials designed with mathematical models. This Roadmap differentiates Mathematical Oncology from related fields and demonstrates specific areas of focus within this unique field of research. The dominant theme of this Roadmap is the personalization of medicine through mathematics, modelling, and simulation. This is achieved through the use of patient-specific clinical data to: develop individualized screening strategies to detect cancer earlier; make predictions of response to therapy; design adaptive, patient-specific treatment plans to overcome therapy resistance; and establish domain-specific standards to share model predictions and to make models and simulations reproducible. The cover art for this Roadmap was chosen as an apt metaphor for the beautiful, strange, and evolving relationship between mathematics and cancer.

Evolutionary history of human colitis-associated colorectal cancer.

OBJECTIVE: IBD confers an increased lifetime risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), and colitis-associated CRC (CA-CRC) is molecularly distinct from sporadic CRC (S-CRC). Here we have dissected the evolutionary history of CA-CRC using multiregion sequencing. DESIGN: Exome sequencing was performed on fresh-frozen multiple regions of carcinoma, adjacent non-cancerous mucosa and blood from 12 patients with CA-CRC (n=55 exomes), and key variants were validated with orthogonal methods. Genome-wide copy number profiling was performed using single nucleotide polymorphism arrays and low-pass whole genome sequencing on archival non-dysplastic mucosa (n=9), low-grade dysplasia (LGD; n=30), high-grade dysplasia (HGD; n=13), mixed LGD/HGD (n=7) and CA-CRC (n=19). Phylogenetic trees were reconstructed, and evolutionary analysis used to reveal the temporal sequence of events leading to CA-CRC. RESULTS: 10/12 tumours were microsatellite stable with a median mutation burden of 3.0 single nucleotide alterations (SNA) per Mb, ~20% higher than S-CRC (2.5 SNAs/Mb), and consistent with elevated ageing-associated mutational processes. Non-dysplastic mucosa had considerable mutation burden (median 47 SNAs), including mutations shared with the neighbouring CA-CRC, indicating a precancer mutational field. CA-CRCs were often near triploid (40%) or near tetraploid (20%) and phylogenetic analysis revealed that copy number alterations (CNAs) began to accrue in non-dysplastic bowel, but the LGD/HGD transition often involved a punctuated 'catastrophic' CNA increase. CONCLUSIONS: Evolutionary genomic analysis revealed precancer clones bearing extensive SNAs and CNAs, with progression to cancer involving a dramatic accrual of CNAs at HGD. Detection of the cancerised field is an encouraging prospect for surveillance, but punctuated evolution may limit the window for early detection.

Implications of Epigenetic Drift in Colorectal Neoplasia.

Many normal tissues undergo age-related drift in DNA methylation, providing a quantitative measure of tissue age. Here, we identify and validate 781 CpG islands (CGI) that undergo significant methylomic drift in 232 normal colorectal tissues and show that these CGI continue to drift in neoplasia while retaining significant correlations across samples. However, compared with normal colon, this drift advanced (∼3-4-fold) faster in neoplasia, consistent with increased cell proliferation during neoplastic progression. The observed drift patterns were broadly consistent with modeled adenoma-to-carcinoma sojourn time distributions from colorectal cancer incidence data. These results support the hypothesis that, beginning with the founder premalignant cell, cancer precursors frequently sojourn for decades before turning into cancer, implying that the founder cell typically arises early in life. At least 77% to 89% of the observed drift variance in distal and rectal tumors was explained by stochastic variability associated with neoplastic progression, whereas only 55% of the variance was explained for proximal tumors. However, gene-CGI pairs in the proximal colon that underwent drift were significantly and primarily negatively correlated with cancer gene expression, suggesting that methylomic drift participates in the clonal evolution of colorectal cancer. Methylomic drift advanced in colorectal neoplasia, consistent with extended sojourn time distributions, which accounts for a significant fraction of epigenetic heterogeneity in colorectal cancer. Importantly, these estimated long-duration premalignant sojourn times suggest that early dietary and lifestyle interventions may be more effective than later changes in reducing colorectal cancer incidence. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings present age-related methylomic drift in colorectal neoplasia as evidence that premalignant cells can persist for decades before becoming cancerous.See related commentary by Sapienza, p. 437.

From Colitis to Cancer: An Evolutionary Trajectory That Merges Maths and Biology.

Patients with inflammatory bowel disease have an increased risk of developing colorectal cancer, and this risk is related to disease duration, extent, and cumulative inflammation burden. Carcinogenesis follows the principles of Darwinian evolution, whereby somatic cells acquire genomic alterations that provide them with a survival and/or growth advantage. Colitis represents a unique situation whereby routine surveillance endoscopy provides a serendipitous opportunity to observe somatic evolution over space and time in vivo in a human organ. Moreover, somatic evolution in colitis is evolution in the 'fast lane': the repeated rounds of inflammation and mucosal healing that are characteristic of the disease accelerate the evolutionary process and likely provide a strong selective pressure for inflammation-adapted phenotypic traits. In this review, we discuss the evolutionary dynamics of pre-neoplastic clones in colitis with a focus on how measuring their evolutionary trajectories could deliver a powerful way to predict future cancer occurrence. Measurements of somatic evolution require an interdisciplinary approach that combines quantitative measurement of the genotype, phenotype and the microenvironment of somatic cells-paying particular attention to spatial heterogeneity across the colon-together with mathematical modeling to interpret these data within an evolutionary framework. Here we take a practical approach in discussing how and why the different "evolutionary ingredients" can and should be measured, together with our viewpoint on subsequent translation into clinical practice. We highlight the open questions in the evolution of colitis-associated cancer as a stimulus for future work.