ROAD: The Road Event Awareness Dataset for Autonomous Driving.

Humans drive in a holistic fashion which entails, in particular, understanding dynamic road events and their evolution. Injecting these capabilities in autonomous vehicles can thus take situational awareness and decision making closer to human-level performance. To this purpose, we introduce the ROad event Awareness Dataset (ROAD) for Autonomous Driving, to our knowledge the first of its kind. ROAD is designed to test an autonomous vehicle's ability to detect road events, defined as triplets composed by an active agent, the action(s) it performs and the corresponding scene locations. ROAD comprises videos originally from the Oxford RobotCar Dataset, annotated with bounding boxes showing the location in the image plane of each road event. We benchmark various detection tasks, proposing as a baseline a new incremental algorithm for online road event awareness termed 3D-RetinaNet. We also report the performance on the ROAD tasks of Slowfast and YOLOv5 detectors, as well as that of the winners of the ICCV2021 ROAD challenge, which highlight the challenges faced by situation awareness in autonomous driving. ROAD is designed to allow scholars to investigate exciting tasks such as complex (road) activity detection, future event anticipation and continual learning. The dataset is available at https://github.com/gurkirt/road-dataset; the baseline can be found at https://github.com/gurkirt/3D-RetinaNet.

Theory of Mind and Preference Learning at the Interface of Cognitive Science, Neuroscience, and AI: A Review.

Theory of Mind (ToM)-the ability of the human mind to attribute mental states to others-is a key component of human cognition. In order to understand other people's mental states or viewpoint and to have successful interactions with others within social and occupational environments, this form of social cognition is essential. The same capability of inferring human mental states is a prerequisite for artificial intelligence (AI) to be integrated into society, for example in healthcare and the motoring industry. Autonomous cars will need to be able to infer the mental states of human drivers and pedestrians to predict their behavior. In the literature, there has been an increasing understanding of ToM, specifically with increasing cognitive science studies in children and in individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder. Similarly, with neuroimaging studies there is now a better understanding of the neural mechanisms that underlie ToM. In addition, new AI algorithms for inferring human mental states have been proposed with more complex applications and better generalisability. In this review, we synthesize the existing understanding of ToM in cognitive and neurosciences and the AI computational models that have been proposed. We focus on preference learning as an area of particular interest and the most recent neurocognitive and computational ToM models. We also discuss the limitations of existing models and hint at potential approaches to allow ToM models to fully express the complexity of the human mind in all its aspects, including values and preferences.

A review of machine learning experiments in equity investment decision-making: why most published research findings do not live up to their promise in real life.

The numerical nature of financial markets makes market forecasting and portfolio construction a good use case for machine learning (ML), a branch of artificial intelligence (AI). Over the past two decades, a number of academics worldwide (mostly from the field of computer science) produced a sizeable body of experimental research. Many publications claim highly accurate forecasts or highly profitable investment strategies. At the same time, the picture of real-world AI-driven investments is ambiguous and conspicuously lacking in high-profile success cases (while it is not lacking in high-profile failures). We conducted a literature review of 27 academic experiments spanning over two decades and contrasted them with real-life examples of machine learning-driven funds to try to explain this apparent contradiction. The specific contributions our article will make are as follows: (1) A comprehensive, thematic review (quantitative and qualitative) of multiple academic experiments from the investment management perspective. (2) A critical evaluation of running multiple versions of the same models in parallel and disclosing the best-performing ones only ("cherry-picking"). (3) Recommendations on how to approach future experiments so that their outcomes are unambiguously measurable and useful for the investment industry. (4) An in-depth comparison of real-life cases of ML-driven funds versus academic experiments. We will discuss whether present-day ML algorithms could make feasible and profitable investments in the equity markets.

Surgical Hand Gesture Prediction for the Operating Room.

Technological advancements in smart assistive technology enable navigating and manipulating various types of computer-aided devices in the operating room through a contactless gesture interface. Understanding surgeon actions is crucial to natural human-robot interaction in operating room since it means a sort of prediction a human behavior so that the robot can foresee the surgeon's intention, early choose appropriate action and reduce waiting time. In this paper, we present a new deep network based on Convolution Long Short-Term Memory (ConvLSTM) for gesture prediction configured to provide natural interaction between the surgeon and assistive robot and improve operating-room efficiency. The experimental results prove the capability of reliably recognizing unfinished gestures on videos. We quantitatively demonstrate the latter ability and the fact that GestureConvLSTM improves the baseline system performance on LSA64 dataset.

Metric learning for Parkinsonian identification from IMU gait measurements.

Diagnosis of people with mild Parkinson's symptoms is difficult. Nevertheless, variations in gait pattern can be utilised to this purpose, when measured via Inertial Measurement Units (IMUs). Human gait, however, possesses a high degree of variability across individuals, and is subject to numerous nuisance factors. Therefore, off-the-shelf Machine Learning techniques may fail to classify it with the accuracy required in clinical trials. In this paper we propose a novel framework in which IMU gait measurement sequences sampled during a 10m walk are first encoded as hidden Markov models (HMMs) to extract their dynamics and provide a fixed-length representation. Given sufficient training samples, the distance between HMMs which optimises classification performance is learned and employed in a classical Nearest Neighbour classifier. Our tests demonstrate how this technique achieves accuracy of 85.51% over a 156 people with Parkinson's with a representative range of severity and 424 typically developed adults, which is the top performance achieved so far over a cohort of such size, based on single measurement outcomes. The method displays the potential for further improvement and a wider application to distinguish other conditions.

Learning Pullback HMM Distances.

Recent work in action recognition has exposed the limitations of methods which directly classify local features extracted from spatio-temporal video volumes. In opposition, encoding the actions' dynamics via generative dynamical models has a number of attractive features: however, using all-purpose distances for their classification does not necessarily deliver good results. We propose a general framework for learning distance functions for generative dynamical models, given a training set of labelled videos. The optimal distance function is selected among a family of pullback ones, induced by a parametrised automorphism of the space of models. We focus here on hidden Markov models and their model space, and design an appropriate automorphism there. Experimental results are presented which show how pullback learning greatly improves action recognition performances with respect to base distances.

Credal semantics of bayesian transformations in terms of probability intervals.

In this paper, we propose a credal representation of the interval probability associated with a belief function (b.f.) and show how it relates to several classical Bayesian transformations of b.f.'s through the notion of ¿focus¿ of a pair of simplices. While a b.f. corresponds to a polytope of probabilities consistent with it, the related interval probability is geometrically represented by a pair of upper and lower simplices. Starting from the interpretation of the pignistic function as the center of mass of the credal set of consistent probabilities, we prove that the relative belief of singletons, the relative plausibility of singletons, and the intersection probability can all be described as the foci of different pairs of simplices in the region of all probability measures. The formulation of frameworks similar to the transferable belief model for such Bayesian transformations appears then at hand.

Two new Bayesian approximations of belief functions based on convex geometry.

In this paper, we analyze from a geometric perspective the meaningful relations taking place between belief and probability functions in the framework of the geometric approach to the theory of evidence. Starting from the case of binary domains, we identify and study three major geometric entities relating a generic belief function (b.f.) to the set of probabilities P: 1) the dual line connecting belief and plausibility functions; 2) the orthogonal complement of P; and 3) the simplex of consistent probabilities. Each of them is in turn associated with a different probability measure that depends on the original b.f. We focus in particular on the geometry and properties of the orthogonal projection of a b.f. onto P and its intersection probability, provide their interpretations in terms of degrees of belief, and discuss their behavior with respect to affine combination.

Geometry of Dempster's rule of combination.

In this paper, we analyze Shafer's belief functions (BFs) as geometric entities, focusing in particular on the geometric behavior of Dempster's rule of combination in the belief space, i.e., the set Stheta of all the admissible BFs defined over a given finite domain theta. The study of the orthogonal sums of affine subspaces allows us to unveil a convex decomposition of Dempster's rule of combination in terms of Bayes' rule of conditioning and prove that under specific conditions orthogonal sum and affine closure commute. A direct consequence of these results is the simplicial shape of the conditional subspaces , i.e., the sets of all the possible combinations of a given BF s. We show how Dempster's rule exhibits a rather elegant behavior when applied to BFs assigning the same mass to a fixed subset (constant mass loci). The resulting affine spaces have a common intersection that is characteristic of the conditional subspace, called focus. The affine geometry of these foci eventually suggests an interesting geometric construction of the orthogonal sum of two BFs.