MicroRNA Profiling as a Predictive Indicator for Time to First Treatment in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia: Insights from the O-CLL1 Prospective Study.

A "watch and wait" strategy, delaying treatment until active disease manifests, is adopted for most CLL cases; however, prognostic models incorporating biomarkers have shown to be useful to predict treatment requirement. In our prospective O-CLL1 study including 224 patients, we investigated the predictive role of 513 microRNAs (miRNAs) on time to first treatment (TTFT). In the context of this study, six well-established variables (i.e., Rai stage, beta-2-microglobulin levels, IGVH mutational status, del11q, del17p, and NOTCH1 mutations) maintained significant associations with TTFT in a basic multivariable model, collectively yielding a Harrell's C-index of 75% and explaining 45.4% of the variance in the prediction of TTFT. Concerning miRNAs, 73 out of 513 were significantly associated with TTFT in a univariable model; of these, 16 retained an independent relationship with the outcome in a multivariable analysis. For 8 of these (i.e., miR-582-3p, miR-33a-3p, miR-516a-5p, miR-99a-5p, and miR-296-3p, miR-502-5p, miR-625-5p, and miR-29c-3p), a lower expression correlated with a shorter TTFT, whereas in the remaining eight (i.e., miR-150-5p, miR-148a-3p, miR-28-5p, miR-144-5p, miR-671-5p, miR-1-3p, miR-193a-3p, and miR-124-3p), the higher expression was associated with shorter TTFT. Integrating these miRNAs into the basic model significantly enhanced predictive accuracy, raising the Harrell's C-index to 81.1% and the explained variation in TTFT to 63.3%. Moreover, the inclusion of the miRNA scores enhanced the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and the net reclassification index (NRI), underscoring the potential of miRNAs to refine CLL prognostic models and providing insights for clinical decision-making. In silico analyses on the differently expressed miRNAs revealed their potential regulatory functions of several pathways, including those involved in the therapeutic responses. To add a biological context to the clinical evidence, an miRNA-mRNA correlation analysis revealed at least one significant negative correlation between 15 of the identified miRNAs and a set of 50 artificial intelligence (AI)-selected genes, previously identified by us as relevant for TTFT prediction in the same cohort of CLL patients. In conclusion, the identification of specific miRNAs as predictors of TTFT holds promise for enhancing risk stratification in CLL to predict therapeutic needs. However, further validation studies and in-depth functional analyses are required to confirm the robustness of these observations and to facilitate their translation into meaningful clinical utility.

Long-term cognitive function changes with non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants in older patients with atrial fibrillation. A multicenter cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation is associated with several comorbidities, particularly cognitive impairment and dementia, especially in older patients. Non-vitamin K oral anticoagulants (NOACs) or vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) were used to prevent thromboembolic events. However, data on the real benefit of these drugs on cognitive function decline remains controversial. In this study we evaluated the effect of NOACs compared to VKAs on the absolute and relative decline in cognitive function over time. METHODS: Nine hundred and eighty-three older patients with nonvalvular AF were enrolled (76 ± 6 years; 291 on VKAs and 692 on NOACs). The cognitive function was assessed with Mini Mental State examination (MMSE) score. The between-arms difference of cognitive evolution over time was investigated by Linear Mixed Models and group-based trajectory model analyses. RESULTS: In the whole multicenter observational study, after a long follow-up of 7.2 ± 3.4 years, the patients of the NOACs versus VKAs group had lowest absolute reduction of the MMSE score between baseline and follow-up (-0.3 ± 0.03 vs.-1.7 ± 0.1, p < 0.001). After stratification into five subgroups according to trajectories of MMSE score over time, the probability to belong to trajectories with lower decline in cognitive functions was higher in patients on NOACs than in those on VKAs (3.93-13.88 times). CONCLUSION: In older patients with atrial fibrillation, the use of NOACs was associated with a smaller decline of cognitive function over time compared to the VKAs, regardless that patients in the NOACs group were older and with a higher burden of comorbidities.

Retrospective ANalysis of multi-drug resistant Gram-nEgative bacteRia on veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. The multicenter RANGER STUDY.

BACKGROUND: Veno-venous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (V-V ECMO) is a rapidly expanding life-support technique worldwide. The most common indications are severe hypoxemia and/or hypercapnia, unresponsive to conventional treatments, primarily in cases of acute respiratory distress syndrome. Concerning potential contraindications, there is no mention of microbiological history, especially related to multi-drug resistant (MDR) bacteria isolated before V-V ECMO placement. Our study aims to investigate: (i) the prevalence and incidence of MDR Gram-negative (GN) bacteria in a cohort of V-V ECMOs; (ii) the risk of 1-year mortality, especially in the case of predetected MDR GN bacteria; and (iii) the impact of annual hospital V-V ECMO volume on the probability of acquiring MDR GN bacteria. METHODS: All consecutive adults admitted to the Intensive Care Units of 5 Italian university-affiliated hospitals and requiring V-V ECMO were screened. Exclusion criteria were age < 18 years, pregnancy, veno-arterial or mixed ECMO-configuration, incomplete records, survival < 24 h after V-V ECMO. A standard protocol of microbiological surveillance was applied and MDR profiles were identified using in vitro susceptibility tests. Cox-proportional hazards models were applied for investigating mortality. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventy-nine V-V ECMO patients (72% male) were enrolled. The overall MDR GN bacteria percentage was 50%: 21% (n.59) detected before and 29% (n.80) after V-V ECMO placement. The overall 1-year mortality was 42%, with a higher risk observed in predetected patients (aHR 2.14 [1.33-3.47], p value 0.002), while not in 'V-V ECMO-acquired MDR GN bacteria' group (aHR 1.51 [0.94-2.42], p value 0.090), as compared to 'non-MDR GN bacteria' group (reference). Same findings were found considering only infections. A larger annual hospital V-V ECMO volume was associated with a lower probability of acquiring MDR GN bacteria during V-V ECMO course (aOR 0.91 [0.86-0.97], p value 0.002). CONCLUSIONS: 21% of MDR GN bacteria were detected before; while 29% after V-V ECMO connection. A history of MDR GN bacteria, isolated before V-V ECMO, was an independent risk factor for mortality. The annual hospital V-V ECMO volume affected the probability of acquiring MDR GN bacteria. Trial Registration ClinicalTrial.gov Registration Number NCTNCT06199141, date 12.26.2023.

Common mistakes in biostatistics.

Biostatistics plays a pivotal role in developing, interpreting and drawing conclusions from clinical, biological and epidemiological data. However, the improper application of statistical methods can lead to erroneous conclusions and misinterpretations. This paper provides a comprehensive examination of the most frequent mistakes encountered in the biostatistical analysis process. We identified and elucidated 10 common errors in biostatistical analysis. These include using the wrong metric to describe data, misinterpreting P-values, misinterpreting the 95% confidence interval, misinterpreting the hazard ratio as an index of prognostic accuracy, ignoring the sample size calculation, misinterpreting analysis by strata in randomized clinical trials, confusing correlation and causation, misunderstanding confounders and mediators, inadequately codifying variables during the data collection, and bias arising when group membership is attributed on the basis of future exposure in retrospective studies. We discuss the implications of these errors and propose some practical strategies to mitigate their impact. By raising awareness of these pitfalls, this paper aims to enhance the rigor and reproducibility of biostatistical analyses, thereby fostering more robust and reliable biomedical research findings.

Effect of early administration of tetracosactide on mortality and host response in critically ill patients requiring rescue surgery: a sensitivity analysis of the STOPSHOCK phase 3 randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Undifferentiated shock is recognized as a criticality state that is transitional in immune-mediated topology for casual risk of lethal microcirculatory dysfunction. This was a sensitivity analysis of a drug (tetracosactide; TCS10) targeting melanocortin receptors (MCRs) in a phase 3 randomized controlled trial to improve cardiovascular surgical rescue outcome by reversing mortality and hemostatic disorders. METHODS: Sensitivity analysis was based on a randomized, two-arm, multicenter, double-blind, controlled trial. The Naïve Bayes classifier was performed by density-based sensitivity index for principal strata as proportional hazard model of 30-day surgical risk mortality according to European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation inputs-outputs in 100 consecutive cases (from August to September 2013 from Emilia Romagna region, Italy). Patients included an agent-based TCS10 group (10 mg, single intravenous bolus before surgery; n = 56) and control group (n = 44) and the association with cytokines, lactate, and bleeding-blood transfusion episodes with the prior-risk log-odds for mortality rate in time-to-event was analyzed. RESULTS: Thirty-day mortality was significantly improved in the TCS10 group vs. control group (0 vs. 8 deaths, P < 0.0001). Baseline levels of interleukin (IL)-6, IL-10, and lactate were associated with bleeding episodes, independent of TCS10 treatment [odds ratio (OR) = 1.90, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.39-2.79; OR = 1.53, 95%CI 1.17-2.12; and OR = 2.92, 95%CI 1.40-6.66, respectively], while baseline level of Fms-like tyrosine kinase 3 ligand (Flt3L) was associated with lower bleeding rates in TCS10-treated patients (OR = 0.31, 95%CI 0.11-0.90, P = 0.03). For every 8 TCS10-treated patients, 1 bleeding case was avoided. Blood transfusion episodes were significantly reduced in the TCS10 group compared to the control group (OR = 0.32, 95%CI 0.14-0.73, P = 0.01). For every 4 TCS10-treated patients, 1 transfusion case was avoided. CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivity index underlines the quality target product profile of TCS10 in the runway of emergency casualty care. To introduce the technology readiness level in real-life critically ill patients, further large-scale studies are required. TRIAL REGISTRATION: European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT Number: 2007-006445-41 ).

Plasma levels of myeloperoxidase and resistin independently predict mortality in dialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: In patients with kidney failure (KF) undergoing dialysis, neutrophils are dysfunctionally activated. Such chronic activation does not correspond to increased protection against infections and is thought to cause direct vascular damage accounting for the higher incidence of cardiovascular (CV) events. We hypothesized that circulating levels of neutrophil degranulation products (i.e. myeloperoxidase (MPO) and resistin) can predict overall and CV-specific mortality in dialysis patients. METHODS: MPO and resistin levels were assessed in plasma samples from n = 1182 dialysis patients who were followed-up for median 2.9 years (IQR: 1.7-4.2). RESULTS: Patients were 65 ± 14 (SD) years old and 36 % women. Median value of MPO and resistin were 78 ng/mL (IQR: 54 - 123) and 72 ng/mL (IQR: 46 - 110), respectively. MPO and resistin levels correlated with biomarkers of organ damage, nutritional status and inflammation. Both MPO and resistin levels predicted all-cause mortality even after adjustment for traditional risk factors and inflammation, nutritional and KF-related indexes (MPO, HRfor 1 ln unit increase: 1.26, 95 %CI 1.11 - 1.42, P < 0.001; Resistin, HRfor 1 ln unit increase: 1.25, 95 %CI 1.09 - 1.44, P = 0.001). Similarly, their predictive ability held true also for CV death (MPO, HRfor 1 ln unit increase: 1.19, 95 %CI 1.01 - 1.41, P = 0.04; Resistin, HRfor 1 ln unit increase: 1.29, 95 %CI 1.07 - 1.56, P = 0.007). CONCLUSION: Plasma levels of MPO and resistin correlate with prospective overall and CV-specific mortality risk in KF patients undergoing dialysis and might be useful prognostic tools. Mediators of inflammation may be potential target to improve survival of those patients.

Socioeconomic Status and Clinical Outcomes in Chronic Kidney Disease: Bootstrap Validation of a Simple Indicator.

Background: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is a complex health condition that interacts significantly with socioeconomic determinants, particularly income status and education. This study developed a simple indicator of socioeconomic status (SES), which is composed of income status and education in CKD patients, and evaluated its impact on health outcomes in this population. Methods: This study was conducted on 561 CKD patients, stages 2-5. The composite SES score was developed by combining the regression coefficients of income and education as predictors of the study endpoint in a multivariable Cox model, normalizing these coefficients to derive weights, and then using these weights to calculate an individual percentage score based on each person's income and education. The composed SES indicator was internally validated through bootstrap analysis. Over a median follow-up time of 36 months, we tracked all-cause death and non-fatal cardiovascular events. Results: Both lack of income (p = 0.020) and low educational level (p = 0.034) were independently related to the combined endpoint. Based on these covariates' regression coefficients, a composite socioeconomic score considering income and educational level was generated. In a Cox regression model, a 10% increase in this composite risk score entailed a 25% increase in the hazard ratio (HR) of the combined endpoint [HR (10% increase): 1.25], and the internally validated 95% CI ranged from 1.14 to 1.41 (p < 0.001). Conclusions: This study underscores the significant impact of a simple, bootstrap-validated composite SES indicator on CKD patients' health outcomes. These findings highlight the importance of considering education and socioeconomic factors in managing and treating CKD patients and inform future research and policy considerations for this population.

Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9) and clinical outcomes in dialysis patients.

BACKGROUND: Proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9), a factor accelerating the degradation of LDL receptors, was associated with a gender-dependent risk for cardiovascular (CV) events in the general population and with all-cause and CV mortality in two relatively small studies in black Africans and South Korean haemodialysis patients. The effect modification by gender was untested in these studies. METHODS: The study enrolled 1188 dialysis patients from the Prospective Registry of The Working Group of Epidemiology of Dialysis Region Calabria (PROGREDIRE) cohort. PCSK9 was measured by colorimetric enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The primary outcomes were all-cause and CV mortality. Statistical analysis included Cox regression analysis and effect modification analysis. RESULTS: During a median 2.9-year follow-up, out of 494 deaths, 278 were CV-related. In unadjusted analyses, PCSK9 levels correlated with increased all-cause (HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.23, 95% CI 1.06-1.43, p =.008) and CV mortality (HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.26, 95% CI 1.03-1.54, p =.03). After multivariate adjustment, these associations were no longer significant (all-cause mortality, HRfor 1 ln unit increase: 1.16, 95% CI .99-1.36, p =.07; CV mortality, HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.18, 95% CI .95-1.46, p =.14). However, in fully adjusted interaction analyses, a doubling in the risk of this outcome in women was registered (Women, HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.88, 95% CI 1.27-2.78, p =.002; Men, HRfor1ln unit increase: 1.07, 95% CI .83-1.38, p =.61; p for effect modification: .02). CONCLUSIONS: PCSK9 levels are unrelated to all-cause mortality in haemodialysis patients but, like in studies of the general population, independently of other risk factors, entail a doubling in the risk of CV events in women in this population.

ROC curve analysis: a useful statistic multi-tool in the research of nephrology.

In the past decade, scientific research in the area of Nephrology has focused on evaluating the clinical utility and performance of various biomarkers for diagnosis, risk stratification and prognosis. Before implementing a biomarker in everyday clinical practice for screening a specific disease context, specific statistic measures are necessary to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and performance of this biomarker. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curve analysis is an important statistical method used to estimate the discriminatory performance of a novel diagnostic test, identify the optimal cut-off value for a test that maximizes sensitivity and specificity, and evaluate the predictive value of a certain biomarker or risk, prediction score. Herein, through practical examples, we aim to present a simple methodological approach to explain in detail the principles and applications of ROC curve analysis in the field of nephrology pertaining diagnosis and prognosis.

Sleep apnoea syndrome prevalence in chronic kidney disease and end-stage kidney disease patients: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: Several studies have examined the frequency of sleep apnoea (SA) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), reporting different prevalence rates. Our systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to define the clinical penetrance of SA in CKD and end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients. Methods: Ovid-MEDLINE and PubMed databases were explored up to 5 June 2023 to identify studies providing SA prevalence in CKD and ESKD patients assessed by different diagnostic methods, either sleep questionnaires or respiration monitoring equipment [such as polysomnography (PSG), type III portable monitors or other diagnostic tools]. Single-study data were pooled using the random-effects model. The Chi2 and Cochrane-I2 tests were used to assess the presence of heterogeneity, which was explored performing sensitivity and/or subgroup analyses. Results: A cumulative analysis from 32 single-study data revealed a prevalence of SA of 57% [95% confidence interval (CI) 42%-71%] in the CKD population, whereas a prevalence of 49% (95% CI 47%-52%) was found pooling data from 91 studies in ESKD individuals. The prevalence of SA using instrumental sleep monitoring devices, including classical PSG and type III portable sleep monitors, was 62% (95% CI 52%-72%) and 56% (95% CI 42%-69%) in CKD and ESKD populations, respectively. Sleep questionnaires revealed a prevalence of 33% (95% CI 16%-49%) and 39% (95% CI 30%-49%). Conclusions: SA is commonly seen in both non-dialysis CKD and ESKD patients. Sleep-related questionnaires underestimated the presence of SA in this population. This emphasizes the need to use objective diagnostic tools to identify such a syndrome in kidney disease.

Venous bicarbonate and CKD progression: a longitudinal analysis by the group-based trajectory model.

Background: Metabolic acidosis accelerates chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression towards kidney failure in animal models. Clinical trials testing the effect of bicarbonate on kidney outcomes are underpowered and/or of suboptimal quality. On the other hand, observational studies testing the same hypothesis are generally based on bicarbonate measured at a single time point. Methods: We studied the longitudinal relationship between repeated venous bicarbonate levels and a predefined composite renal outcome (a ≥30% estimated glomerular filtration rate reduction, dialysis or transplantation) by using group-based trajectory model (GBTM) analysis. The GBTM analysis was used to classify patients based on individual bicarbonate levels over time. The relationship between trajectory groups and renal outcomes was investigated using crude and adjusted Cox regression models. A total of 528 patients with stage 2-5 CKD were included in the analysis. Results: The GBTM analysis identified four distinct trajectories of bicarbonate levels: low, moderate, moderate-high and high. During the follow-up period, 126 patients experienced the combined renal endpoint. The hazard rate of renal events decreased dose-dependently from the lowest to the highest bicarbonate trajectory. After adjusting for potential confounders, there was a 63% risk reduction for the composite renal endpoint for patients in the high trajectory category compared with those in the low trajectory category. Conclusion: The study found that higher bicarbonate trajectories were associated with a lower risk of adverse renal outcomes in CKD patients. These results suggest that strategies to maintain higher bicarbonate levels may benefit patients with CKD. However, further high-quality randomised trials are needed to confirm these findings and recommend bicarbonate supplementation as a strategy to delay CKD progression.

Genes selection using deep learning and explainable artificial intelligence for chronic lymphocytic leukemia predicting the need and time to therapy.

Analyzing gene expression profiles (GEP) through artificial intelligence provides meaningful insight into cancer disease. This study introduces DeepSHAP Autoencoder Filter for Genes Selection (DSAF-GS), a novel deep learning and explainable artificial intelligence-based approach for feature selection in genomics-scale data. DSAF-GS exploits the autoencoder's reconstruction capabilities without changing the original feature space, enhancing the interpretation of the results. Explainable artificial intelligence is then used to select the informative genes for chronic lymphocytic leukemia prognosis of 217 cases from a GEP database comprising roughly 20,000 genes. The model for prognosis prediction achieved an accuracy of 86.4%, a sensitivity of 85.0%, and a specificity of 87.5%. According to the proposed approach, predictions were strongly influenced by CEACAM19 and PIGP, moderately influenced by MKL1 and GNE, and poorly influenced by other genes. The 10 most influential genes were selected for further analysis. Among them, FADD, FIBP, FIBP, GNE, IGF1R, MKL1, PIGP, and SLC39A6 were identified in the Reactome pathway database as involved in signal transduction, transcription, protein metabolism, immune system, cell cycle, and apoptosis. Moreover, according to the network model of the 3D protein-protein interaction (PPI) explored using the NetworkAnalyst tool, FADD, FIBP, IGF1R, QTRT1, GNE, SLC39A6, and MKL1 appear coupled into a complex network. Finally, all 10 selected genes showed a predictive power on time to first treatment (TTFT) in univariate analyses on a basic prognostic model including IGHV mutational status, del(11q) and del(17p), NOTCH1 mutations, ß2-microglobulin, Rai stage, and B-lymphocytosis known to predict TTFT in CLL. However, only IGF1R [hazard ratio (HR) 1.41, 95% CI 1.08-1.84, P=0.013), COL28A1 (HR 0.32, 95% CI 0.10-0.97, P=0.045), and QTRT1 (HR 7.73, 95% CI 2.48-24.04, P<0.001) genes were significantly associated with TTFT in multivariable analyses when combined with the prognostic factors of the basic model, ultimately increasing the Harrell's c-index and the explained variation to 78.6% (versus 76.5% of the basic prognostic model) and 52.6% (versus 42.2% of the basic prognostic model), respectively. Also, the goodness of model fit was enhanced (χ2 = 20.1, P=0.002), indicating its improved performance above the basic prognostic model. In conclusion, DSAF-GS identified a group of significant genes for CLL prognosis, suggesting future directions for bio-molecular research.

Medium-term and long-term renal function changes with direct oral anticoagulants in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation.

Objective: Atrial Fibrillation (AF) and chronic kidney disease frequently coexist in the elderly. Warfarin-like drugs (WLDs) may be associated with a relatively greater decrease of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as compared to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), but there is no evidence on the medium- and long-term changes. To further elucidate this issue in elderly patients with AF, we investigated the renal function deterioration in the two groups of the study (DOACs or WLDs). Patients and Methods: A total of 420 AF patients were enrolled (mean age: 77.0 ± 6.0 years; 136 on WLDs and 284 on DOACs). These patients underwent three eGFR measurements during the follow-up period. The between-arms difference of eGFR decline over time was investigated by Linear Mixed Models and group-based trajectory model analyses. Results: In the whole study cohort, after a median follow-up of 4.9 years (interquartile range: 2.7-7.0 years), eGFR decreased from 67.4 ± 18.2 to 47.1 ± 14.3 mL/min/1.73 m2 (p < 0.001). Remarkably, patients on DOACs experienced a significantly smaller eGFR decline than WLDs patients (-21.3% vs. -45.1%, p < 0.001) and this was true both in the medium-term (-6.6 vs. -19.9 mL/min/1.73 m2) and in the long-term (-13.5 versus -34.2 mL/min/1.73 m2) period. After stratification into five subgroups according to trajectories of renal function decline over time, logistic regression showed that DOACs patients had from 3.03 to 4.24-fold greater likelihood to belong to the trajectory with less marked eGFR decline over time than WLDs patients. Conclusion: Elderly patients with AF on treatment with DOACs had a relatively smaller decline of eGFR over time compared to those on treatment with WLDs. This is consistent with what was partly reported in the literature.

Measures of frequency and effect in clinical research.

The assessment of risk and effect size of a specific endpoint associated to the presence/absence of a certain exposure is a hallmark in clinical and epidemiological research. In fact, before recommending any treatment, it is mandatory to investigate the magnitude of the benefits and harms between the exposure under investigation (e.g. a given treatment) and a specific disease or event. To do this, clinicians and statisticians use absolute (risk differences, number needed to treat, likelihood to be helped or harmed) and relative (risk ratio, incidence rate ratio, hazard ratio and odds ratio) measures of effect. Herein, using a series of clinical examples, we aim to present a step by step methodologic approach of measures of effect in the area of nephrology and urology.

CKD-MBD biomarkers and CKD progression: an analysis by the joint model.

BACKGROUND: Biomarkers of chronic kidney disease-mineral and bone disorder (CKD-MBD) have been implicated in CKD progression in follow-up studies focusing on single measurements of individual biomarkers made at baseline only. The simultaneous relationship between the time trend of these biomarkers over the course of CKD and renal outcomes has never been tested. METHODS: We applied the joint model (JM) to investigate the longitudinal relationship between repeated measurements of CKD-MBD biomarkers and a combined renal endpoint (estimated glomerular filtration rate reduction >30%, dialysis or transplantation) in 729 stage 2-5 CKD patients over a 36-month follow-up. RESULTS: In the survival submodel of the JM, the longitudinal series of parathyroid hormone (PTH) values was directly and independently related to the risk of renal events [hazard ratio (HR) (1 ln increase in parathyroid hormone (PTH) 2.0 (range 1.5-2.8), P < .001)] and this was also true for repeated measurements of serum phosphate [HR (1 mg/dl) 1.3924 (range 1.1459-1.6918), P = .001], serum calcium [HR (1 mg/dl) 0.7487 (range 0.5843-0.9593), P = .022], baseline fibroblast growth factor 23 [HR (1 pg/ml) 1.001 (range 1.00-1.002), P = .045] and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D [HR (1 pg/ml) 0.9796 (range 0.9652-0.9942), P = .006]. CONCLUSION: Repeated measurements of serum PTH, calcium and phosphate as well as baseline FGF23 and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D are independently related with the progression to kidney failure in a cohort of stage 2-5 CKD patients. This longitudinal study generates the hypothesis that interventions at multiple levels on MBD biomarkers can mitigate renal function loss in this population.

Post-hoc analysis of a tool to predict kidney failure in patients with IgA nephropathy.

BACKGROUND: Recently, a tool based on two different artificial neural networks has been developed. The first network predicts kidney failure (KF) development while the second predicts the time frame to reach this outcome. In this study, we conducted a post-hoc analysis to evaluate the discordant results obtained by the tool. METHODS: The tool performance was analyzed in a retrospective cohort of 1116 adult IgAN patients, as were the causes of discordance between the predicted and observed cases of KF. RESULTS: There was discordance between the predicted and observed KF in 216 IgAN patients (19.35%) all of whom were elderly, hypertensive, had high serum creatinine levels, reduced renal function and moderate or severe renal lesions. Many of these patients did not receive therapy or were non-responders to therapy. In other IgAN patients the tool predicted KF but the outcome was not reached because patients responded to therapy. Therefore, in the discordant group (prediction did not match the observed outcome) the proportion of patients having or not having KF was strongly associated with treatment (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The post-hoc analysis shows that discordance in a low number of patients is not an error, but rather the effect of positive response to therapy. Thus, the tool could both help physicians to determine the prognosis of the disease and help patients to plan for their future.

Fundamentals and Applications of the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve Analysis in the Research of Endothelial Dysfunction in Chronic Kidney Disease.

Endothelial dysfunction (ED) starts early in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and is the hallmark of atherosclerosis in these patients. During recent years, numerous markers have emerged, aiming to predict the onset of ED in CKD patients. Therefore, there is a need to evaluate and assess the discriminatory ability (or diagnostic accuracy) of such a marker (i.e., the ability to correctly classify individuals as having a given disease or not) and identify the optimal cut-off value. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis has been used in the majority of the research papers evaluating the predictive ability of a marker of ED. It is a graphical plot combining pairs of sensitivity (true positive rate) on the y axis and the complement of specificity (1-specificity, false positive rate) in the x axis, corresponding to several of the cut-off values covering the complete range of possible values that this test/marker might take. Herein, using a series of practical examples derived from clinical studies on ED in the special population of CKD, we address the principles, fundamentals, advantages and limitations regarding the interpretation of the ROC analysis.

Long-Term Effect of Physical Exercise on the Risk for Hospitalization and Death in Dialysis Patients: A Post-Trial Long-Term Observational Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In the EXerCise Introduction to Enhance Performance in Dialysis (EXCITE) trial, a simple, personalized 6-month walking exercise program at home during the day off of dialysis improved the functional status and the risk for hospitalization in patients with kidney failure. In this post-trial observational study, we tested whether the same intervention was associated with a lower long-term risk of death or hospitalization (combined end point) during a follow-up extended up to 36 months. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: In total, 227 patients (exercise, n=104; control, n=123) completed the 6-month trial and entered the post-trial observational study. Data were analyzed by unadjusted and adjusted Cox regression analyses and Bayesian analysis. RESULTS: In the long-term observation (up to 36 months), 134 events were recorded (eight deaths not preceded by hospitalization and 126 hospitalizations, which were followed by death in 38 cases). The long-term risk for hospitalization or death was 29% lower (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 1.00), and in an analysis stratified by adherence to the walking exercise program during the 6-month trial, the subgroup with high adherence (>60% of prescribed sessions) had a 45% lower risk as compared with the control group (hazard ratio, 0.55; 95% confidence interval, 0.35 to 0.87). A Bayesian analysis showed that the posterior probability of a hazard ratio of 0.71 (95% confidence interval, 0.50 to 1.00) for the risk of the composite outcome observed in the post-trial observational study was 93% under the conservative prior and 97% under the optimistic prior. Sensitivity analyses restricted to the risk of hospitalization only or censoring patients at the time of transplantation fully confirmed these findings. CONCLUSIONS: A simple, personalized, home-based, low-intensity exercise program was associated with a lower risk of hospitalization. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRY NAME AND REGISTRATION NUMBER: EXerCise Introduction to Enhance Performance in Dialysis (EXCITE), NCT01255969.

Long Term Metabolic Effects of Sacubitril/Valsartan in Non-Diabetic and Diabetic Patients With Heart Failure Reduced Ejection Fraction: A Real Life Study.

Sacubitril/Valsartan (sac/val) has improved clinical prognosis in patients affected by heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). HF and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) frequently coexist, with a prevalence of T2DM of 35%-40% in patients with HF. T2DM is the third co-morbidities in patients with HF and a strong independent risk factor for the progression of HF. In a post hoc analysis of PARADIGM-HF, improved glycemic control was shown in patients with T2DM and HFrEF receiving sac/val compared to enalapril at 12 months of follow-up. The aim of the present study was to evaluate, in a series of repeated observations in 90 HFrEF patients, the long term effect of sac/val treatment on renal function, glycometabolic state and insulin sensitivity parameters, according to diabetic status. We studied 90 patients (74 men and 16 women, mean age 68 ± 10 years, 60 diabetics and 30 non-diabetics) suffering from HFrEF and still symptomatic despite optimal pharmacological therapy. Patients with left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) <35% and II-III NYHA functional class were enrolled. All patients underwent clinical-instrumental and laboratory determinations and Minnesota Living with HF Questionnaire (MLHFQ) every 6 months until 30 months to evaluate benefits and adverse events. After 30 months follow-up, we observed a significant improvement in glycometabolic parameters including HbA1c, fasting glucose and insulin, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), HOMA index, and LDL cholesterol. Moreover, renal function, NTpro-BNP levels and echocardiographic parameters significantly improved. In diabetic patients a significant reduction in use of oral antidiabetic drugs and insulin was observed after 30 months of sac/val treatment. In the whole population, multivariate analysis shows that the evolution of cardiac index (CI) was significantly associated to simultaneous changes in HOMA, IGF-1 and visit; per each visit and for 1 ng/ml increase in IGF-1 there was an increase in CI of 64.77 ml/min/m2 (p < 0.0001) and 0.98 ml/min/m2 (p = 0.003), respectively, whereas 1 point increase in HOMA was associated with a -7.33 ml/min/m2 (p = 0.003) reduction in CI. The present data confirm persistent metabolic improvement in patients with HFrEF after treatment with sac/val and highlights its potential therapeutical role in patients with metabolic comorbidities.