Perspective: Leveraging the Gut Microbiota to Predict Personalized Responses to Dietary, Prebiotic, and Probiotic Interventions.

Humans often show variable responses to dietary, prebiotic, and probiotic interventions. Emerging evidence indicates that the gut microbiota is a key determinant for this population heterogeneity. Here, we provide an overview of some of the major computational and experimental tools being applied to critical questions of microbiota-mediated personalized nutrition and health. First, we discuss the latest advances in in silico modeling of the microbiota-nutrition-health axis, including the application of statistical, mechanistic, and hybrid artificial intelligence models. Second, we address high-throughput in vitro techniques for assessing interindividual heterogeneity, from ex vivo batch culturing of stool and continuous culturing in anaerobic bioreactors, to more sophisticated organ-on-a-chip models that integrate both host and microbial compartments. Third, we explore in vivo approaches for better understanding of personalized, microbiota-mediated responses to diet, prebiotics, and probiotics, from nonhuman animal models and human observational studies, to human feeding trials and crossover interventions. We highlight examples of existing, consumer-facing precision nutrition platforms that are currently leveraging the gut microbiota. Furthermore, we discuss how the integration of a broader set of the tools and techniques described in this piece can generate the data necessary to support a greater diversity of precision nutrition strategies. Finally, we present a vision of a precision nutrition and healthcare future, which leverages the gut microbiota to design effective, individual-specific interventions.

Genetically Determined Reproductive Aging and Coronary Heart Disease: A Bidirectional 2-sample Mendelian Randomization.

BACKGROUND: Accelerated reproductive aging, in women indicated by early natural menopause, is associated with increased coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in observational studies. Conversely, an adverse CHD risk profile has been suggested to accelerate menopause. OBJECTIVES: To study the direction and evidence for causality of the relationship between reproductive aging and (non-)fatal CHD and CHD risk factors in a bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) approach, using age at natural menopause (ANM) genetic variants as a measure for genetically determined reproductive aging in women. We also studied the association of these variants with CHD risk (factors) in men. DESIGN: Two-sample MR, using both cohort data as well as summary statistics, with 4 methods: simple and weighted median-based, standard inverse-variance weighted (IVW) regression, and MR-Egger regression. PARTICIPANTS: Data from EPIC-CVD and summary statistics from UK Biobank and publicly available genome-wide association studies were pooled for the different analyses. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: CHD, CHD risk factors, and ANM. RESULTS: Across different methods of MR, no association was found between genetically determined reproductive aging and CHD risk in women (relative risk estimateIVW = 0.99; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.97-1.01), or any of the CHD risk factors. Similarly, no associations were found in men. Neither did the reversed analyses show evidence for an association between CHD (risk factors) and reproductive aging. CONCLUSION: Genetically determined reproductive aging is not causally associated with CHD risk (factors) in women, nor were the genetic variants associated in men. We found no evidence for a reverse association in a combined sample of women and men.

Association of menopausal characteristics and risk of coronary heart disease: a pan-European case-cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Earlier age at menopause has been associated with increased risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), but the shape of association and role of established cardiovascular risk factors remain unclear. Therefore, we examined the associations between menopausal characteristics and CHD risk; the shape of the association between age at menopause and CHD risk; and the extent to which these associations are explained by established cardiovascular risk factors. METHODS: We used data from EPIC-CVD, a case-cohort study, which includes data from 23 centres from 10 European countries. We included only women, of whom 10 880 comprise the randomly selected sub-cohort, supplemented with 4522 cases outside the sub-cohort. We conducted Prentice-weighted Cox proportional hazards regressions with age as the underlying time scale, stratified by country and adjusted for relevant confounders. RESULTS: After confounder and intermediate adjustment, post-menopausal women were not at higher CHD risk compared with pre-menopausal women. Among post-menopausal women, earlier menopause was linearly associated with higher CHD risk [HRconfounder and intermediate adjusted per-year decrease = 1.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.01-1.03, p = 0.001]. Women with a surgical menopause were at higher risk of CHD compared with those with natural menopause (HRconfounder-adjusted = 1.25, 95% CI = 1.10-1.42, p < 0.001), but this attenuated after additional adjustment for age at menopause and intermediates (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 0.96-1.29, p = 0.15). A proportion of the association was explained by cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: Earlier and surgical menopause were associated with higher CHD risk. These associations could partially be explained by differences in conventional cardiovascular risk factors. These women might benefit from close monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors and disease.

Cardiovascular risk prediction models for women in the general population: A systematic review.

AIM: To provide a comprehensive overview of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models for women and models that include female-specific predictors. METHODS: We performed a systematic review of CVD risk prediction models for women in the general population by updating a previous review. We searched Medline and Embase up to July 2017 and included studies in which; (a) a new model was developed, (b) an existing model was validated, or (c) a predictor was added to an existing model. RESULTS: A total of 285 prediction models for women have been developed, of these 160 (56%) were female-specific models, in which a separate model was developed solely in women and 125 (44%) were sex-predictor models. Out of the 160 female-specific models, 2 (1.3%) included one or more female-specific predictors (mostly reproductive risk factors). A total of 591 validations of sex-predictor or female-specific models were identified in 206 papers. Of these, 333 (56%) validations concerned nine models (five versions of Framingham, SCORE, Pooled Cohort Equations and QRISK). The median and pooled C statistics were comparable for sex-predictor and female-specific models. In 260 articles the added value of new predictors to an existing model was described, however in only 3 of these female-specific predictors (reproductive risk factors) were added. CONCLUSIONS: There is an abundance of models for women in the general population. Female-specific and sex-predictor models have similar predictors and performance. Female-specific predictors are rarely included. Further research is needed to assess the added value of female-specific predictors to CVD models for women and provide physicians with a well-performing prediction model for women.

Cardiovascular risk model performance in women with and without hypertensive disorders of pregnancy.

OBJECTIVES: Compare the predictive performance of Framingham Risk Score (FRS), Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs) and Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) model between women with and without a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (hHDP) and determine the effects of recalibration and refitting on predictive performance. METHODS: We included 29 751 women, 6302 with hHDP and 17 369 without. We assessed whether models accurately predicted observed 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk (calibration) and whether they accurately distinguished between women developing CVD during follow-up and not (discrimination), separately for women with and without hHDP. We also recalibrated (updating intercept and slope) and refitted (recalculating coefficients) the models. RESULTS: Original FRS and PCEs overpredicted 10-year CVD risks, with expected:observed (E:O) ratios ranging from 1.51 (for FRS in women with hHDP) to 2.29 (for PCEs in women without hHDP), while E:O ratios were close to 1 for SCORE. Overprediction attenuated slightly after recalibration for FRS and PCEs in both hHDP groups. Discrimination was reasonable for all models, with C-statistics ranging from 0.70-0.81 (women with hHDP) and 0.72-0.74 (women without hHDP). C-statistics improved slightly after refitting 0.71-0.83 (with hHDP) and 0.73-0.80 (without hHDP). The E:O ratio of the original PCE model was statistically significantly better in women with hHDP compared with women without hHDP. CONCLUSIONS: SCORE performed best in terms of both calibration and discrimination, while FRS and PCEs overpredicted risk in women with and without hHDP, but improved after recalibrating and refitting the models. No separate model for women with hHDP seems necessary, despite their higher baseline risk.

Efficacy and safety of procalcitonin guidance in reducing the duration of antibiotic treatment in critically ill patients: a randomised, controlled, open-label trial.

BACKGROUND: In critically ill patients, antibiotic therapy is of great importance but long duration of treatment is associated with the development of antimicrobial resistance. Procalcitonin is a marker used to guide antibacterial therapy and reduce its duration, but data about safety of this reduction are scarce. We assessed the efficacy and safety of procalcitonin-guided antibiotic treatment in patients in intensive care units (ICUs) in a health-care system with a comparatively low use of antibiotics. METHODS: We did a prospective, multicentre, randomised, controlled, open-label intervention trial in 15 hospitals in the Netherlands. Critically ill patients aged at least 18 years, admitted to the ICU, and who received their first dose of antibiotics no longer than 24 h before inclusion in the study for an assumed or proven infection were eligible to participate. Patients who received antibiotics for presumed infection were randomly assigned (1:1), using a computer-generated list, and stratified (according to treatment centre, whether infection was acquired before or during ICU stay, and dependent on severity of infection [ie, sepsis, severe sepsis, or septic shock]) to receive either procalcitonin-guided or standard-of-care antibiotic discontinuation. Both patients and investigators were aware of group assignment. In the procalcitonin-guided group, a non-binding advice to discontinue antibiotics was provided if procalcitonin concentration had decreased by 80% or more of its peak value or to 0·5 µg/L or lower. In the standard-of-care group, patients were treated according to local antibiotic protocols. Primary endpoints were antibiotic daily defined doses and duration of antibiotic treatment. All analyses were done by intention to treat. Mortality analyses were completed for all patients (intention to treat) and for patients in whom antibiotics were stopped while being on the ICU (per-protocol analysis). Safety endpoints were reinstitution of antibiotics and recurrent inflammation measured by C-reactive protein concentrations and they were measured in the population adhering to the stopping rules (per-protocol analysis). The study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01139489, and was completed in August, 2014. FINDINGS: Between Sept 18, 2009, and July 1, 2013, 1575 of the 4507 patients assessed for eligibility were randomly assigned to the procalcitonin-guided group (761) or to standard-of-care (785). In 538 patients (71%) in the procalcitonin-guided group antibiotics were discontinued in the ICU. Median consumption of antibiotics was 7·5 daily defined doses (IQR 4·0-12·7) in the procalcitonin-guided group versus 9·3 daily defined doses (5·0-16·6) in the standard-of-care group (between-group absolute difference 2·69, 95% CI 1·26-4·12, p<0·0001). Median duration of treatment was 5 days (3-9) in the procalcitonin-guided group and 7 days (4-11) in the standard-of-care group (between-group absolute difference 1·22, 0·65-1·78, p<0·0001). Mortality at 28 days was 149 (20%) of 761 patients in the procalcitonin-guided group and 196 (25%) of 785 patients in the standard-of-care group (between-group absolute difference 5·4%, 95% CI 1·2-9·5, p=0·0122) according to the intention-to-treat analysis, and 107 (20%) of 538 patients in the procalcitonin-guided group versus 121 (27%) of 457 patients in the standard-of-care group (between-group absolute difference 6·6%, 1·3-11·9, p=0·0154) in the per-protocol analysis. 1-year mortality in the per-protocol analysis was 191 (36%) of 538 patients in the procalcitonin-guided and 196 (43%) of 457 patients in the standard-of-care groups (between-group absolute difference 7·4, 1·3-13·8, p=0·0188). INTERPRETATION: Procalcitonin guidance stimulates reduction of duration of treatment and daily defined doses in critically ill patients with a presumed bacterial infection. This reduction was associated with a significant decrease in mortality. Procalcitonin concentrations might help physicians in deciding whether or not the presumed infection is truly bacterial, leading to more adequate diagnosis and treatment, the cornerstones of antibiotic stewardship. FUNDING: Thermo Fisher Scientific.

Association Between Vitamin K and the Metabolic Syndrome: A 10-Year Follow-Up Study in Adults.

CONTEXT: The Metabolic Syndrome (MetS) is a cluster of metabolic abnormalities and is associated with increased risk of diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. Phylloquinone, menaquinones, and vitamin K status are associated with several components of MetS, but the association with MetS has hardly been studied to date. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to examine whether the intake and/or status of vitamin K is associated with MetS and its components. DESIGN: This study comprised two cohorts, one of 402 women and one of 400 men (age 40-80 y). At followup 625 participants were still alive and willing to participate. Data were analyzed both cross sectionally and longitudinally with Poisson and linear regression adjusted for multiple confounders. Baseline phylloquinone/menaquinone intakes were measured with a validated food frequency questionnaire and vitamin K status with serum desphospho-uncarborxylated matrix-Gla protein level. RESULTS: At baseline 270 (34.5%) participants had MetS and 171 (35.7%) at followup. Cross sectionally, high menaquinones intakes were associated (P(trend) = .08) with a lower prevalence of MetS with a prevalence ratio (PR) of 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.54-1.03) for the highest vs the lowest tertile. At followup, the highest tertiles of menaquinones intake (PR = 0.62; 95% CI, 0.40-0.95) and vitamin K status (PR = 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38-0.87) were associated (P(trend) = .01) with a lower occurrence of MetS. These associations were mainly driven by relations with lower triacylglycerol concentrations for menaquinones and lower waist circumference for vitamin K status. Phylloquinone intake was not associated with MetS prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that a high intake of menaquinones and high vitamin K status are associated with a lower occurrence of MetS.

Analyses of CD27++ plasma cells in peripheral blood from patients with bacterial infections and patients with serum antinuclear antibodies.

The number of CD27++ plasma cells (PCs) in peripheral blood may be a valuable biomarker for systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) disease management. More insights into the behavior of the PC population are, however, required to validate CD27 as a reliable biomarker. In the current study, we have monitored the PC compartment of patients with acute bacterial infections and patients with SLE and, in addition, examined the relationship between the presence of serum antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) and the number of peripheral PCs. Kinetic analyses in patients with bacterial infection revealed a 10-60-fold expansion of the CD27++ PC compartment that peaked at day 2-5 and returned toward normal values at day 7-9 after hospital admission. The transient expansion of the PC population appeared to be a late phenomenon in the process of recovering from a bacterial infection. SLE subjects had significantly increased frequencies of PCs compared with patients suspected of a connective tissue disease and healthy controls. In patients suspected of a connective tissue disease, no relationship was found between the presence of serum ANAs and the number of CD27++ PCs. Additionally, the presence of serum ANAs was not associated with abnormalities in other peripheral B-cell subsets. It remains to be established at which stage of SLE development the expansion of the PC compartment is initiated.