Sociocultural Risk and Resilience in the Context of Adverse Childhood Experiences.

Importance: Knowledge about childhood resilience factors relevant in circumstances of marginalization and high numbers of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) can improve interventions. Objective: To identify sociocultural resilience factors in childhood that are associated with better young adult mental health in the context of ACEs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study examined 4 waves of data from the Boricua Youth Study, which included Puerto Rican children from the South Bronx, New York, and San Juan, Puerto Rico. Participants were aged 5 to 17 years at waves 1 through 3 (2000-2003) and aged 15 to 29 years at wave 4 (2013-2017). Linear and logistic regression models tested the associations of 7 childhood resilience factors and their interaction with ACEs on young adult mental health outcomes. Data were analyzed from June 2021 to October 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Perceived stress, major depressive disorder and/or generalized anxiety disorder (MDD/GAD), and substance use disorder (SUD) in young adulthood. Results: Among a total 2004 participants, the mean (SD) age at wave 4 was 22.4 (2.9) years; 1024 participants (51.1%) were female, and 980 (48.9%) were male. Positive parent-child relationships and nonparental adult support during childhood were associated with both lower perceived stress (ß = -0.14; SE = 0.02; P < .001; ß = -0.08; SE = 0.03; P = .003, respectively) and lower odds of MDD/GAD (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.84; 95% CI, 0.73 to 0.97; aOR = 0.81; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.95, respectively) in young adulthood. Maternal warmth reported during childhood was also associated with lower young adult perceived stress (ß = -0.11; SE = 0.02; P < .001). None of the resilience factors were associated with SUD. The resilience factors familism, friendships, and family religiosity were not associated with any of the mental health outcomes. ACEs were associated with poorer mental health outcomes; however, none of the resilience factors exhibited interactions consistent with being protective for ACEs. Unexpectedly, higher family religiosity was associated with more perceived stress in the presence of higher ACEs. Conclusions and Relevance: The results of this study suggest that promoting positive relationships with adults during childhood may reduce later young adulthood stress and MDD/GAD. However, there is still a need to identify sociocultural childhood protective factors for ACEs. Caution should be taken in assuming what resilience factors are relevant for a given group, as higher family religiosity (one postulated resilience factor) was unexpectedly associated with a stronger, rather than a weaker, association between ACEs and perceived stress in young adulthood.

Prediction Tool for Individual Outcome Trajectories Across the Next Year in First-Episode Psychosis in Coordinated Specialty Care.

Importance: In coordinated specialty care (CSC) settings for people with a first episode of psychosis, the development of reliable, validated individual-level prediction tools for key outcomes may be informative for shared clinician and client decision-making. Objective: To develop an individual-level prediction tool using machine-learning methods that predicts a trajectory of education/work status or psychiatric hospitalization outcomes over a client's next year of quarterly follow-up assessments. Additionally, to visualize these predictions in a way that is informative to clinicians and clients. Design, Setting, and Participants: Individual-level data were collected for all patients enrolled in the OnTrackNY program at enrollment and at quarterly follow-ups using standardized forms. The OnTrackNY program, a network of CSC sites in New York State, provides person-centered, recovery-oriented, and evidence-based psychosocial and pharmaceutical interventions to individuals aged 16 to 30 years with recent-onset (<2 years) nonaffective psychosis. Although data collection is ongoing, data for this study were collected from October 2013 to December 2018, and the time frame for analysis was July 2020 to May 2021. Data were separated into a training/cross-validation set to perform internally validated model development and a separate holdout test set (~20% of the sample) for external validation. Random probability forest models were developed to predict individual-level trajectories of outcomes. Exposures: Forty-three individual-level demographic and clinical features collected at enrollment in OnTrackNY, 25 of which were time-varying and updated at quarterly follow-up assessments, and 13 site-level demographic and economic census variables. Main Outcomes and Measures: Individual-level education and/or employment status and psychiatric hospitalization trajectories at quarterly follow-up periods across the first 2 years of CSC. Results: The total study sample consists of 1298 individuals aged 16 to 30 years and included 341 women (26.3%), 949 men (73.1%), and 8 (<1%) with another gender. Prediction models performed well for 1-year trajectories of education/work across all validation sets, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) ranging from 0.68 (95% CI, 0.63-0.74) to 0.88 (95% CI, 0.81-0.96). Predictive accuracy for psychiatric hospitalization 3 months ahead reached AUC above 0.70; moreover, predictions of future psychiatric hospitalizations at 6 months and beyond were consistently poor, with AUCs below 0.60. Given the good externally validated performance for predicting education/work, a prototype interactive visualization tool displaying individual-level education/work trajectories and related features was developed. Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that accurate prediction tools can be developed for outcomes in people with first-episode psychosis, which may help inform shared clinician/client decision-making. Future work should study the effectiveness of its deployment, including proper communication to inform shared clinician/client decision-making in the context of a learning health care system. At present, more work is needed to develop better performing prediction models for future psychiatric hospitalizations before any tool is recommended for this outcome.

An Intersectional Approach to Ethnoracial Disparities in Pathways to Care Among Individuals With Psychosis in Coordinated Specialty Care.

Importance: Intersecting factors of social position including ethnoracial background may provide meaningful ways to understand disparities in pathways to care for people with a first episode of psychosis. Objective: To examine differences in pathways to care by ethnoracial groups and by empirically derived clusters combining multiple factors of social and clinical context in an ethnoracially diverse multisite early-intervention service program for first-episode psychosis. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study used data collected on individuals with recent-onset psychosis (<2 years) by clinicians with standardized forms from October 2013 to January 2020 from a network of 21 coordinated specialty care (CSC) programs in New York State providing recovery-oriented, evidence-based psychosocial interventions and medications to young people experiencing early psychosis. Exposures: Ethnoracial group and other factors of social position (eg, insurance status, living situation, English fluency, geographic region) intersecting with first-contact experiences (ie, type of first service, referral source, and symptoms at referral). Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcome measures were time from onset to first contact, first contact to CSC, and onset to CSC. Results: The total study sample consists of 1726 individuals aged 16 to 30 years and included 452 women (26%), 1263 men (73%), and 11 (<1%) with another gender enrolled in the network of CSC programs. The total sample consisted of 153 Asian (9%), 599 Black (35%), 454 Latinx (26%), and 417 White individuals (24%). White individuals had a significantly shorter time from onset to first contact (median [IQR], 17 [0-80] days) than Asian (median [IQR], 34 [7-94] days) and Black (median [IQR], 30 [1-108] days) individuals but had the longest period from first contact to CSC (median [IQR], 102.5 [45-258] days). Five distinct clusters of individuals emerged that cut across ethnoracial groups. The more disadvantaged clusters in terms of both social position and first-contact experiences had the longest time from onset to first contact, which were longer than for any single ethnoracial group. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of individuals with recent-onset psychosis, time-to-treatment outcomes differed by ethnoracial group and by empirically derived clusters combining multiple factors of social and clinical context. The examination of disparities in durations to treatment through an intersectional, ethnoracial lens may improve understanding of the inequities resulting from the various intersecting factors that may compound delays in treatment initiation.

Feasibility and Utility of Different Approaches to Violence Risk Assessment for Young Adults Receiving Treatment for Early Psychosis.

This pilot study examined violence risk assessment among a sample of young adults receiving treatment for early psychosis. In this study, thirty participants were assessed for violence risk at baseline. Participants completed follow-up assessments at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months to ascertain prevalence of violent behavior. Individuals were on average 24.1 years old (SD = 3.3 years) and predominantly male (n = 24, 80%). In this sample, six people (20%) reported engaging in violence during the study period. Individuals who engaged in violence had higher levels of negative urgency (t(28) = 2.21, p = 0.035) This study sought to establish the feasibility, acceptability, and clinical utility of violence risk assessment for clients in treatment for early psychosis. Overall, this study found that most individuals with early psychosis in this study (who are in treatment) were not at risk of violence. Findings suggest that violent behavior among young adults with early psychosis is associated with increased negative urgency.