Effects on child and adolescent health of climate change mitigation policies: A systematic review of modelling studies.

There is a growing body of modelling evidence that demonstrates the potential for immediate and substantial benefits to adult health from greenhouse gas mitigation actions, but the effects on the health of younger age groups is largely unknown. We conducted a systematic review to identify the available published evidence of the modelled effects on child and adolescent health (≤18 years of age) of greenhouse gas mitigation. We searched six databases of peer-reviewed studies published between January 1, 1990 and July 27, 2022, screened 27,282 original papers and included 23 eligible papers. All included studies were set in high- and middle-income countries; and all studies modelled the effects of interventions that could mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and improve air quality. Most of the available evidence suggests positive benefits for child and adolescent respiratory health from greenhouse gas mitigation actions that simultaneously reduce air pollution (specifically PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide). We found scant evidence on child and adolescent health from regions more vulnerable to climate change, or on mitigation interventions that could affect exposures other than air pollution.

Air pollution and child health impacts of decarbonization in 16 global cities: Modelling study.

Most research on the air pollution-related health effects of decarbonization has focused on adults. We assess the potential health benefits that could be achieved in children and young people in a global sample of 16 cities through global decarbonization actions. We modelled annual average concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) at 1x1 km resolution in the cities using a general circulation/atmospheric chemistry model assuming removal of all global combustion-related emissions from land transport, industries, domestic energy use and power generation. We modelled the impact on childhood asthma incidence and adverse birth outcomes (low birthweight, pre-term births) using published exposure-response relationships. Removal of combustion emissions was estimated to decrease annual average PM2.5 by between 2.9 µg/m3 (8.4%) in Freetown and 45.4 µg/m3 (63.7%) in Dhaka. For NO2, the range was from 0.3 ppb (7.9%) in Freetown to 18.8 ppb (92.3%) in Mexico City. Estimated reductions in asthma incidence ranged from close to zero in Freetown, Tamale and Harare to 149 cases per 100,000 population in Los Angeles. For pre-term birth, modelled impacts ranged from a reduction of 135 per 100,000 births in Dar es Salaam to 2,818 per 100,000 births in Bhubaneswar and, for low birthweight, from 75 per 100,000 births in Dar es Salaam to 2,951 per 100,000 births in Dhaka. The large variations chiefly reflect differences in the magnitudes of air pollution reductions and estimated underlying disease rates. Across the 16 cities, the reduction in childhood asthma incidence represents more than one-fifth of the current burden, and an almost 10% reduction in pre-term and low birthweight births. Decarbonization actions that remove combustion-related emissions contributing to ambient PM2.5 and NO2 would likely lead to substantial but geographically-varied reductions in childhood asthma and adverse birth outcomes, though there are uncertainties in causality and the precision of estimates.

Let's just ask them. Perspectives on urban dwelling and air quality: A cross-sectional survey of 3,222 children, young people and parents.

This research aimed to capture and synthesise the views of children, young people, parents and expectant parents (CYPP) about the cities where they live, with a specific focus on air pollution (AP), in order to support the generation of evidence-informed policy that reflects CYPP's perspectives, ultimately contributing to the development of child-centered, healthier, sustainable cities. The Children, Cities and Climate (CCC) project used targeted social media adverts to recruit CYPP to complete an online survey with a combination of open and closed questions in order to collect perceptions about air quality in their home cities, the main sources of AP, and how they would improve their cities. The survey was completed by 3,222 CYPP in 59 of the most polluted cities in 14 countries. Nearly two in five (39%) CYPP cited AP as one of the worst things about their city, with motor transport perceived as the main contributor. CYPP reported differing views on whether their cities were becoming better (43%) or worse (34%) places to live (33% reported it was 'staying the same'). Numerous specific ideas to improve cities and urban air quality emerged, alongside an emphasis on also addressing structural barriers to change. A clear set of principles that should guide how city leaders act was also described, including the need to engage with young people meaningfully. CYPPs articulated good and bad experiences of urban living and perceived AP and traffic as pressing concerns. They provided a clear set of suggestions for improving their cities. Further efforts to engage young people on these issues are warranted.

Impact on mortality of pathways to net zero greenhouse gas emissions in England and Wales: a multisectoral modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The UK is legally committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. We aimed to understand the potential impact on population health of two pathways for achieving this target through the integrated effects of six actions in four sectors. METHODS: In this multisectoral modelling study we assessed the impact on population health in England and Wales of six policy actions relating to electricity generation, transport, home energy, active travel, and diets relative to a baseline scenario in which climate actions, exposures, and behaviours were held constant at 2020 levels under two scenarios: the UK Climate Change Committee's Balanced Pathway of technological and behavioural measures; and its Widespread Engagement Pathway, which assumes more substantial changes to consumer behaviours. We quantified the impacts of each policy action on mortality using a life table comprising all exposures, behaviours, and health outcomes in a single model. FINDINGS: Both scenarios are predicted to result in substantial reductions in mortality by 2050. The Widespread Engagement Pathway achieves a slightly greater reduction in outdoor fine particulate matter air pollution of 3·2 µg/m3 (33%) and, under assumptions of appropriate ventilation, a greater improvement in indoor air pollution (a decrease in indoor-generated fine particulate matter from 9·4 µg/m3 to 4·6 µg/m3) and winter temperatures (increasing from 17·8°C to 18·1°C), as well as appreciably greater changes in levels of active travel (27% increase in metabolic equivalent hours per week of walking and cycling) by 2050. Additionally, the greater reduction in red meat consumption (50% compared with 35% under the Balanced Pathway) by 2050 results in greater consumption of fruits (17-18 g/day), vegetables (22-23 g/day), and legumes (5-7 g/day). Combined actions under the Balanced Pathway result in more than 2 million cumulative life-years gained over 2021-50; the estimated gain under the Widespread Engagement Pathway is greater, corresponding to nearly 2·5 million life-years gained by 2050 and 13·7 million life-years gained by 2100. INTERPRETATION: Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions is likely to lead to substantial benefits for public health in England and Wales, with the cumulative net benefits being correspondingly greater with a pathway that entails faster and more ambitious changes, especially in physical activity and diets. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research and the Wellcome Trust.

Growing health: global linkages between patterns of food supply, sustainability, and vulnerability to climate change.

Global food systems are developing rapidly, and have resulted in a large burden of disease and a high proportion of environmental resource use. We combined global data sources on food supply and trade, environmental footprints, burdens of disease, and vulnerability to climate change to explore patterns from 1990 to 2017. Four distinct patterns of food supply (animal sources and sugar, vegetables and nuts, starchy roots and fruits, and seafood and oils) were matched to health and environmental risks. The animal sources and sugar pattern was found to have the greatest environmental footprint and to be associated with a greater burden of chronic disease than any other pattern, although it was also associated with lower undernutrition. This pattern is globally predominant, but has begun to decrease in higher income countries. Countries where this pattern is predominant are generally among the least susceptible to climate change, whereas more susceptible countries tend to have more sustainable patterns of food supply. More countries that are susceptible to climate change are increasingly exporting a larger proportion than before of their cereals, fruit, and vegetables globally, which will lead to increased risks in global food security. To increase resilience to future shocks, dietary change towards more sustainable patterns should accelerate in high-income countries, and the food systems of the most susceptible countries should be protected.

Nitrate and nitrite contamination in drinking water and cancer risk: A systematic review with meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pollution of water sources, largely from wide-scale agricultural fertilizer use has resulted in nitrate and nitrite contamination of drinking water. The effects on human health of raised nitrate and nitrite levels in drinking water are currently unclear. OBJECTIVES: We conducted a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature on the association of nitrate and nitrite in drinking water with human health with a specific focus on cancer. METHODS: We searched eight databases from 1 January 1990 until 28 February 2021. Meta-analyses were conducted when studies had the same exposure metric and outcome. RESULTS: Of 9835 studies identified in the literature search, we found 111 studies reporting health outcomes, 60 of which reported cancer outcomes (38 case-control studies; 12 cohort studies; 10 other study designs). Most studies were set in the USA (24), Europe (20) and Taiwan (14), with only 3 studies from low and middle-income countries. Nitrate exposure in water (59 studies) was more commonly investigated than nitrite exposure (4 studies). Colorectal (15 studies) and gastric (13 studies) cancers were the most reported. In meta-analyses (4 studies) we identified a positive association of nitrate exposure with gastric cancer, OR = 1.91 (95%CI = 1.09-3.33) per 10 mg/L increment in nitrate ion. We found no association of nitrate exposure with colorectal cancer (10 studies; OR = 1.02 [95%CI = 0.96-1.08]) or cancers at any other site. CONCLUSIONS: We identified an association of nitrate in drinking water with gastric cancer but with no other cancer site. There is currently a paucity of robust studies from settings with high levels nitrate pollution in drinking water. Research into this area will be valuable to ascertain the true health burden of nitrate contamination of water and the need for public policies to protect human health.

The role of plant-based alternative foods in sustainable and healthy food systems: Consumption trends in the UK.

A global transformation towards sustainable food systems is crucial for delivering on climate change mitigation targets worldwide. In high- and middle-income settings, plant-based meat and dairy alternatives present potential substitutes for animal sourced foods, and a pathway to transition to more sustainable diets. We examined plant-based alternative foods (PBAF) consumption trends in the UK by analysing repeated cross-sectional food consumption data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey 2008-2019. Dietary data for 15,655 individuals aged 1.5 years and over were analysed to assess aggregate change in intake of PBAF and six other food groups that play a role in transformative dietary change. Characteristics associated with consumption of PBAF were explored using logistic regression, and consumption patterns in high and low meat consumers were explored by examining intake of potential animal product substitute food groups. The proportion of individuals reporting consumption of any PBAFs increased from 6.7% in 2008-2011, to 13.1% in 2017-2019 (p < 0.01). Compared to 2008-2011 PBAF consumption rose by 115% in 2017-2019 (p < 0.01). Females were 46% more likely than males to report consumption of PBAF (p < 0.01). Millennials (age 24-39 years) were the most likely generation to report PBAF consumption (p < 0.01 compared to generation Z (age 11-23 years) and traditionalists (age 75+ years)), as were individuals of the highest income tertile (p < 0.01). Among "low meat consumers", PBAF consumption was on average higher than "high meat consumers" (18.6 g versus 4.8 g PBAF per day, p < 0.01). Our results support the hypothesis of a pivotal role of PBAF in the transition towards sustainable food systems in the UK, by demonstrating they are becoming increasingly popular among UK consumers. This highlights the urgent need to assess in detail the environmental and health impacts of large scale and population-wide consumption of PBAF in comparison to their animal-based equivalents.

Potential for positive biodiversity outcomes under diet-driven land use change in Great Britain.

Background: A shift toward human diets that include more fruit and vegetables, and less meat is a potential pathway to improve public health and reduce food system-related greenhouse gas emissions. Associated changes in land use could include conversion of grazing land into horticulture, which makes more efficient use of land per unit of dietary energy and frees-up land for other uses. Methods: Here we use Great Britain as a case study to estimate potential impacts on biodiversity from converting grazing land to a mixture of horticulture and natural land covers by fitting species distribution models for over 800 species, including pollinating insects and species of conservation priority. Results: Across several land use scenarios that consider the current ratio of domestic fruit and vegetable production to imports, our statistical models suggest a potential for gains to biodiversity, including a tendency for more species to gain habitable area than to lose habitable area. Moreover, the models suggest that climate change impacts on biodiversity could be mitigated to a degree by land use changes associated with dietary shifts. Conclusions: Our analysis demonstrates that options exist for changing agricultural land uses in a way that can generate win-win-win outcomes for biodiversity, adaptation to climate change and public health.

The effects on public health of climate change adaptation responses: a systematic review of evidence from low- and middle-income countries.

Climate change adaptation responses are being developed and delivered in many parts of the world in the absence of detailed knowledge of their effects on public health. Here we present the results of a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature reporting the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review used the 'Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative' database (comprising 1682 publications related to climate change adaptation responses) that was constructed through systematic literature searches in Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar (2013-2020). For this study, further screening was performed to identify studies from LMICs reporting the effects on human health of climate change adaptation responses. Studies were categorised by study design and data were extracted on geographic region, population under investigation, type of adaptation response and reported health effects. The review identified 99 studies (1117 reported outcomes), reporting evidence from 66 LMICs. Only two studies were ex ante formal evaluations of climate change adaptation responses. Papers reported adaptation responses related to flooding, rainfall, drought and extreme heat, predominantly through behaviour change, and infrastructural and technological improvements. Reported (direct and intermediate) health outcomes included reduction in infectious disease incidence, improved access to water/sanitation and improved food security. All-cause mortality was rarely reported, and no papers were identified reporting on maternal and child health. Reported maladaptations were predominantly related to widening of inequalities and unforeseen co-harms. Reporting and publication-bias seems likely with only 3.5% of all 1117 health outcomes reported to be negative. Our review identified some evidence that climate change adaptation responses may have benefits for human health but the overall paucity of evidence is concerning and represents a major missed opportunity for learning. There is an urgent need for greater focus on the funding, design, evaluation and standardised reporting of the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses to enable evidence-based policy action.

Systematic mapping of global research on climate and health: a machine learning review.

BACKGROUND: The global literature on the links between climate change and human health is large, increasing exponentially, and it is no longer feasible to collate and synthesise using traditional systematic evidence mapping approaches. We aimed to use machine learning methods to systematically synthesise an evidence base on climate change and human health. METHODS: We used supervised machine learning and other natural language processing methods (topic modelling and geoparsing) to systematically identify and map the scientific literature on climate change and health published between Jan 1, 2013, and April 9, 2020. Only literature indexed in English were included. We searched Web of Science Core Collection, Scopus, and PubMed using title, abstract, and keywords only. We searched for papers including both a health component and an explicit mention of either climate change, climate variability, or climate change-relevant weather phenomena. We classified relevant publications according to the fields of climate research, climate drivers, health impact, date, and geography. We used supervised and unsupervised machine learning to identify and classify relevant articles in the field of climate and health, with outputs including evidence heat maps, geographical maps, and narrative synthesis of trends in climate health-related publications. We included empirical literature of any study design that reported on health pathways associated with climate impacts, mitigation, or adaptation. FINDINGS: We predict that there are 15 963 studies in the field of climate and health published between 2013 and 2019. Climate health literature is dominated by impact studies, with mitigation and adaptation responses and their co-benefits and co-risks remaining niche topics. Air quality and heat stress are the most frequently studied exposures, with all-cause mortality and infectious disease incidence being the most frequently studied health outcomes. Seasonality, extreme weather events, heat, and weather variability are the most frequently studied climate-related hazards. We found major gaps in evidence on climate health research for mental health, undernutrition, and maternal and child health. Geographically, the evidence base is dominated by studies from high-income countries and China, with scant evidence from low-income counties, which often suffer most from the health consequences of climate change. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the importance and feasibility of using automated machine learning to comprehensively map the science on climate change and human health in the age of big literature. These can provide key inputs into global climate and health assessments. The scant evidence on climate change response options is concerning and could significantly hamper the design of evidence-based pathways to reduce the effects on health of climate change. In the post-2015 Paris Agreement era of climate solutions, we believe much more attention should be given to climate adaptation and mitigation options and their effects on human health. FUNDING: Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

The association of dimensions of fruit and vegetable access in the retail food environment with consumption; a systematic review.

The consumption of fruit and vegetables (F&V) is important for human health to protect against non-communicable disease and micronutrient deficiency. Increasing consumption of F&V may also benefit planetary health if these foods are substituted for foods with higher environmental footprints such as red meat or dairy. The retail food environment (RFE) is an influential junction between the food system and individual diets as it drives access to F&V through external (physical access) and personal (availability, affordability, acceptability) domains. We performed a systematic search of six literature databases (January 2021) for studies assessing access to F&V in the RFE and its association with F&V consumption in adults in high- and upper-middle income countries. 36 studies were identified and categorised by dimensions of food access - accessibility, affordability, acceptability, availability and accommodation. More than half of the studies (n = 20) were based in the USA. F&V accessibility was the most commonly reported dimension (n = 29); no study reported on accommodation. 6 studies were rated to be high quality. A positive association of increased availability of F&V options in the RFE with intake was identified in 9 of 15 studies. Associations in both acceptability and accessibility dimensions were inconsistent. No association was observed between F&V affordability and consumption although available data were limited. Many challenges exist to building a robust evidence base within food environment research including conceptual, definitional and methodological heterogeneity and measurement standardisation. Future food policies should consider multi-dimensional interventions to promote access to F&V in the RFE across all domains.

Changes in take-home aerated soft drink purchases in urban India after the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST): An interrupted time series analysis.

OBJECTIVES: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) are increasingly being implemented as public health interventions to limit the consumption of sugar and reduce associated health risks. In July 2017, India imposed a new tax rate on aerated (carbonated) drinks as part of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) reform. This study investigates the post-GST changes in the purchase of aerated drinks in urban India. METHODS: An interrupted time series analysis was conducted on state-level monthly take-home purchases of aerated drinks in urban India from January 2013 to June 2018. We assessed changes in the year-on-year growth rate (i.e. percentage change) in aerated drink purchases with controls for contextual variables. RESULTS: We found no evidence of a reduction in state-level monthly take-home aerated drink purchases in urban India following the implementation of GST. Further analysis showed that the year-on-year growth rate in aerated drink purchases increased slightly (0.1 percentage point per month, 95%CI = 0.018, 0.181) after the implementation of GST; however, this trend was temporary and decreased over time (0.008 percentage point per month, 95%CI = -0.015, -0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In India, a country currently with low aerated drink consumption, the implementation of GST was not associated with a reduction in aerated drink purchase in urban settings. Due to the lack of accurate and sufficiently detailed price data, it is not possible to say whether this finding is driven by prices not changing sufficiently. Furthermore, the impact of GST reform on industry practice (reformulation, marketing) and individual behaviour choices (substitution) is unknown and warrants further investigation to understand how such taxes could be implemented to deliver public health benefits.

Pathways to "5-a-day": modeling the health impacts and environmental footprints of meeting the target for fruit and vegetable intake in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: Fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom is currently well below recommended levels, with a significant associated public health burden. The United Kingdom has committed to reducing its carbon emissions to net zero by 2050, and this transition will require shifts towards plant-based diets. OBJECTIVE: The aim was to quantify the health effects, environmental footprints, and cost associated with 4 different pathways to meeting the United Kingdom's "5-a-day" recommendation for fruit and vegetable consumption. METHODS: Dietary data based on 18,006 food diaries from 4528 individuals participating in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2012/13-2016/17) constituted the baseline diet. Linear programming was used to model the hypothetical adoption of the 5-a-day (400 g) recommendation, which was assessed according to 4 pathways differing in their prioritization of fruits versus vegetables and UK-produced versus imported varieties. Increases in fruit and vegetable consumption were substituted for consumption of sweet snacks and meat, respectively. Changes in life expectancy were assessed using the IOMLIFET life table model. Greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs), blue water footprint (WF), and total diet cost were quantified for each 5-a-day diet. RESULTS: Achieving the 5-a-day target in the United Kingdom could increase average life expectancy at birth by 7-8 mo and reduce diet-related GHGEs by 6.1 to 12.2 Mt carbon dioxide equivalents/y; blue WFs would change by -0.14 to +0.07 km3/y. Greater reductions in GHGEs were achieved by prioritizing increased vegetable consumption over fruit, whereas the greatest reduction in WF was obtained by prioritizing vegetable varieties produced in the United Kingdom. All consumption pathways increased diet cost (£0.34-£0.46/d). CONCLUSIONS: Benefits to both population and environmental health could be expected from consumption pathways that meet the United Kingdom's 5-a-day target for fruit and vegetables. Our analysis identifies cross-sectoral trade-offs and opportunities for national policy to promote fruit and vegetable consumption in the United Kingdom.

Mapping global research on climate and health using machine learning (a systematic evidence map).

Climate change is already affecting health in populations around the world, threatening to undermine the past 50 years of global gains in public health. Health is not only affected by climate change via many causal pathways, but also by the emissions that drive climate change and their co-pollutants. Yet there has been relatively limited synthesis of key insights and trends at a global scale across fragmented disciplines. Compounding this, an exponentially increasing literature means that conventional evidence synthesis methods are no longer sufficient or feasible. Here, we outline a protocol using machine learning approaches to systematically synthesize global evidence on the relationship between climate change, climate variability, and weather (CCVW) and human health. We will use supervised machine learning to screen over 300,000 scientific articles, combining terms related to CCVW and human health. Our inclusion criteria comprise articles published between 2013 and 2020 that focus on empirical assessment of: CCVW impacts on human health or health-related outcomes or health systems; relate to the health impacts of mitigation strategies; or focus on adaptation strategies to the health impacts of climate change. We will use supervised machine learning (topic modeling) to categorize included articles as relevant to impacts, mitigation, and/or adaptation, and extract geographical location of studies. Unsupervised machine learning using topic modeling will be used to identify and map key topics in the literature on climate and health, with outputs including evidence heat maps, geographic maps, and narrative synthesis of trends in climate-health publishing. To our knowledge, this will represent the first comprehensive, semi-automated, systematic evidence synthesis of the scientific literature on climate and health.

Biofortified Maize Improves Selenium Status of Women and Children in a Rural Community in Malawi: Results of the Addressing Hidden Hunger With Agronomy Randomized Controlled Trial.

Background: Selenium deficiency is widespread in the Malawi population. The selenium concentration in maize, the staple food crop of Malawi, can be increased by applying selenium-enriched fertilizers. It is unknown whether this strategy, called agronomic biofortification, is effective at alleviating selenium deficiency. Objectives: The aim of the Addressing Hidden Hunger with Agronomy (AHHA) trial was to determine whether consumption of maize flour, agronomically-biofortified with selenium, affected the serum selenium concentrations of women, and children in a rural community setting. Design: An individually-randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled trial was conducted in rural Malawi. Participants were randomly allocated in a 1:1 ratio to receive either intervention maize flour biofortified with selenium through application of selenium fertilizer, or control maize flour not biofortified with selenium. Participant households received enough flour to meet the typical consumption of all household members (330 g capita -1 day-1) for a period of 8 weeks. Baseline and endline serum selenium concentration (the primary outcome) was measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Results: One woman of reproductive age (WRA) and one school-aged child (SAC) from each of 180 households were recruited and households were randomized to each group. The baseline demographic and socioeconomic status of participants were well-balanced between arms. No serious adverse events were reported. In the intervention arm, mean (standard deviation) serum selenium concentration increased over the intervention period from 57.6 (17.0) µg L-1 (n = 88) to 107.9 (16.4) µg L-1 (n = 88) among WRA and from 46.4 (14.8) µg L-1 (n = 86) to 97.1 (16.0) µg L-1 (n = 88) among SAC. There was no evidence of change in serum selenium concentration in the control groups. Conclusion: Consumption of maize flour biofortified through application of selenium-enriched fertilizer increased selenium status in this community providing strong proof of principle that agronomic biofortification could be an effective approach to address selenium deficiency in Malawi and similar settings. Clinical Trial Registration: http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN85899451, identifier: ISRCTN85899451.

UK's fruit and vegetable supply increasingly dependent on imports from climate vulnerable producing countries.

Domestic contribution to total fruit and vegetable supply in the UK decreased from 42% in 1987 to 22% in 2013. The impact of this changing pattern of UK fruit and vegetable imports, from countries with different vulnerabilities to projected climate change, on the resilience of the UK food system is currently unknown. Here, we used the UN FAO bilateral trade database over a period of 27 years to estimate changes in fruit and vegetable supply in the UK, and the NDGAIN climate vulnerability categories to assess the climate vulnerability of countries supplying fruit and vegetables to the UK. The diversity of fruit and vegetable supply has increased from 21 crops, comprising the top 80% of all fruit and vegetables supplied to the UK in 1987, to 34 crops in 2013. The contribution of tropical fruits has rapidly increased while that of more traditional vegetables, such as cabbages and carrots, has declined. The proportion of fruit and vegetables supplied to the UK market from climate vulnerable countries increased from 20% in 1987 to 32% in 2013. Sensitivity analyses - using climatic and freshwater availability indicators - supported these findings. Increased reliance on fruit and vegetable imports from climate vulnerable countries could negatively affect the availability, price and consumption of fruit and vegetables in the UK, affecting dietary intake and health particularly of older people and low-income households. Inter-sectoral actions across agriculture, health, environment, and trade are critical in both the UK and countries that export to the UK to increase the resilience of the food system, and support population health.

Precision of Measurements Performed by a Cadre of Anthropometrists Trained for a Large Household Nutrition Survey in Ethiopia.

BACKGROUND: Well-trained anthropometrists are essential for the delivery of high-quality anthropometric data used to evaluate public health nutrition interventions. Scant data are currently available on the precision of data collected by large teams of anthropometrists employed for nutrition surveys in low-income country settings. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to assess the precision of child midupper arm circumference (MUAC) and length/height measurements taken by fieldworkers training for nutrition survey deployment. METHODS: Following 3 d of training, an anthropometry standardization exercise was conducted in small teams of trainees at 7 sites in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. In groups of 2-4, trainee anthropometrists (n = 79) each measured 16 children aged 6-47 mo (n = 336) twice for MUAC and length/height. Both intraobserver and interobserver precision were analyzed using technical error of measurement (TEM), relative TEM, coefficient of reliability (R), and repeatability metrics. Bland-Altman limits of agreement were calculated for intraobserver measurements. RESULTS: Intraobserver TEM was between 0.00 and 0.57 cm for MUAC (Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement: -0.50 to 0.54 cm) and between 0.04 and 2.58 cm for length/height measurements (Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement: -1.43 to 1.41 cm). Interobserver TEM was between 0.09 and 0.43 cm for MUAC and between 0.06 and 2.98 cm for length/height measurements. A high proportion of trainees achieved intraobserver R >0.95 (MUAC: 95%; length/height: 97%). Most teams also achieved interobserver R >0.95 (MUAC: 90%; length/height: 95%). CONCLUSIONS: Large numbers of anthropometrists (>75) in low-income settings can attain satisfactory precision in anthropometry following training and standardization. These protocols permit researchers to assess trainees, identify individuals who have not achieved the desired level of precision, and retrain or adjust roles prior to survey deployment.

Health impacts and environmental footprints of diets that meet the Eatwell Guide recommendations: analyses of multiple UK studies.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the health impacts and environmental consequences of adherence to national dietary recommendations (the Eatwell Guide (EWG)) in the UK. DESIGN AND SETTING: A secondary analysis of multiple observational studies in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Adults from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer - Oxford(EPIC-Oxford), UK Biobank and Million Women Study, and adults and children aged 5 and over from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (NDNS).Primary and secondary outcome measures risk of total mortality from Cox proportional hazards regression models, total greenhouse gas emissions (GHGe) and blue water footprint (WF) associated with 'very low' (0-2 recommendations), 'low' (3-4 recommendations) or 'intermediate-to-high' (5-9 recommendations) adherence to EWG recommendations. RESULTS: Less than 0.1% of the NDNS sample adhere to all nine EWG recommendations and 30.6% adhere to at least five recommendations. Compared with 'very low' adherence to EWG recommendations, 'intermediate-to-high adherence' was associated with a reduced risk of mortality (risk ratio (RR): 0.93; 99% CI: 0.90 to 0.97) and -1.6 kg CO2eq/day (95% CI: -1.5 to -1.8), or 30% lower dietary GHGe. Dietary WFs were similar across EWG adherence groups. Of the individual Eatwell guidelines, adherence to the recommendation on fruit and vegetable consumption was associated with the largest reduction in total mortality risk: an RR of 0.90 (99% CI: 0.88 to 0.93). Increased adherence to the recommendation on red and processed meat consumption was associated with the largest decrease in environmental footprints (-1.48 kg CO2eq/day, 95% CI: -1.79 to 1.18 for GHGe and -22.5 L/day, 95% CI: -22.7 to 22.3 for blue WF). CONCLUSIONS: The health and environmental benefits of greater adherence to EWG recommendations support increased government efforts to encourage improved diets in the UK that are essential for the health of people and the planet in the Anthropocene.

Spatial clustering of food insecurity and its association with depression: a geospatial analysis of nationally representative South African data, 2008-2015.

While food insecurity is a persistent public health challenge, its long-term association with depression at a national level is unknown. We investigated the spatial heterogeneity of food insecurity and its association with depression in South Africa (SA), using nationally-representative panel data from the South African National Income Dynamics Study (years 2008-2015). Geographical clusters ("hotpots") of food insecurity were identified using Kulldorff spatial scan statistic in SaTScan. Regression models were fitted to assess association between residing in food insecure hotspot communities and depression. Surprisingly, we found food insecurity hotspots (p < 0.001) in high-suitability agricultural crop and livestock production areas with reliable rainfall and fertile soils. At baseline (N = 15,630), we found greater likelihood of depression in individuals residing in food insecure hotspot communities [adjusted relative risk (aRR) = 1.13, 95% CI:1.01-1.27] using a generalized linear regression model. When the panel analysis was limited to 8,801 participants who were depression free at baseline, residing in a food insecure hotspot community was significantly associated with higher subsequent incidence of depression (aRR = 1.11, 95% CI:1.01-1.22) using a generalized estimating equation regression model. The association persisted even after controlling for multiple socioeconomic factors and household food insecurity. We identified spatial heterogeneity of food insecurity at a national scale in SA, with a demonstrated greater risk of incident depression in hotspots. More importantly, our finding points to the "Food Security Paradox", food insecurity in areas with high food-producing potential. There is a need for place-based policy interventions that target communities vulnerable to food insecurity, to reduce the burden of depression.

Is agricultural engagement associated with lower incidence or prevalence of cardiovascular diseases and cardiovascular disease risk factors? A systematic review of observational studies from low- and middle-income countries.

Non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), diabetes and cancer account for more than half of the global disease burden, and 75% of related deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Despite large regional variations in CVD incidence and prevalence, CVDs remain the leading causes of death worldwide. With urbanisation, developing nations are undergoing unprecedented labour-force transitions out of agriculture and into types of non-agricultural employment, mainly in the industry and service sectors. There are few studies on the effect of these transitions on CVDs and CVD risk factors in LMICs. We systematically searched MEDLINE, PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library from January 1950 to January 2017 to assess the association of engaging in agriculture compared to types of non-agricultural employment (e.g. services and manufacturing) with CVD incidence, prevalence and risk factors. Studies were included if they: included participants who engaged in agriculture and participants who did not engage in agriculture; measured atherosclerotic CVDs or their modifiable risk factors; and involved adults from LMICs. We assessed the quality of evidence in seven domains of each study. Prevalence ratios with 95% confidence intervals were calculated and compared in forest plots across studies. Study heterogeneity did not permit formal meta-analyses with pooled results. There was a lack of publications on the primary outcomes, atherosclerotic CVDs (n = 2). Limited evidence of varying consistency from 13 studies in five countries reported that compared with non-agricultural workers, mainly living in urban areas, rural agriculture workers had a lower prevalence of hypertension, overweight and obesity; and a higher prevalence of underweight and smoking. High quality evidence is lacking on the associations of engaging in and transitioning out of agriculture with atherosclerotic CVDs and their modifiable risk factors in LMICs. There is a need for interdisciplinary longitudinal studies to understand associations of types of employment and labour-force transitions with CVD burdens in LMICs.