Algorithmic benchmark modulation: A novel method to develop success rates for clinical studies.

BACKGROUND: High-quality decision-making in the pharmaceutical industry requires accurate assessments of the Probability of Technical Success of clinical trials. Failure to do so will lead to lost opportunities for both patients and investors. Pharmaceutical companies employ different methodologies to determine Probability of Technical Success values. Some companies use power and assurance calculations; others prefer to use industry benchmarks with or without the overlay of subjective modulations. At AstraZeneca, both assurance calculations and industry benchmarks are used, and both methods are combined with modulations. METHODS: AstraZeneca has recently implemented a simple algorithm that allows for modulation of a Probability of Technical Success value. The algorithm is based on a set of multiple-choice questions. These questions cover a comprehensive set of issues that have historically been considered by AstraZeneca when subjective modulations to Probability of Technical Success values were made but do so in a much more structured way. RESULTS: A set of 57 phase 3 Probability of Technical Success assessments suggests that AstraZeneca's historical estimation of Probability of Technical Success has been reasonably accurate. A good correlation between the subjective modulation and the modulation algorithm was found. This latter observation, combined with the finding that historically AstraZeneca has been reasonably accurate in its estimation of Probability of Technical Success, gives confidence in the validity of the novel method. DISCUSSION: Although it is too early to demonstrate whether the method has improved the accuracy of company's Probability of Technical Success assessments, we present our data and analysis here in the hope that it may assist the pharmaceutical industry in addressing this key challenge. This new methodology, developed for pivotal studies, enables AstraZeneca to develop more consistent Probability of Technical Success assessments with less effort and can be used to adjust benchmarks as well as assurance calculations. CONCLUSION: The Probability of Technical Success modulation algorithm addresses several concerns generally associated with assurance calculations or benchmark without modulation: selection biases, situations where little relevant prior data are available and the difficulty to model many factors affecting study outcomes. As opposed to using industry benchmarks, the Probability of Technical Success modulation algorithm allows to accommodate project-specific considerations.

Mortality risk reduction with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate versus fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol in COPD: a matching-adjusted indirect comparison based on ETHOS and IMPACT.

OBJECTIVE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of death worldwide. While two approved fixed-dose inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA)/long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA) triple therapies reduce all-cause mortality (ACM) versus dual LAMA/LABA therapy in patients with COPD, head-to-head studies have not compared the effects of these therapies on ACM. We compared ACM in adults with moderate-to-very severe COPD receiving budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) in ETHOS versus fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI) in IMPACT using a matching-adjusted indirect comparison (MAIC). METHODS: A systematic literature review identified two studies (ETHOS [NCT02465567]; IMPACT [NCT02164513]) of ≥52 weeks reporting ACM as an efficacy endpoint in patients receiving triple therapy. As ETHOS and IMPACT lack a common comparator, an unanchored MAIC compared ACM between licensed doses of BGF (320/18/9.6 µg) from ETHOS and FF/UMEC/VI (100/62.5/25 µg) from IMPACT in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD. Using on- and off-treatment data from the final retrieved datasets of the intention-to-treat populations, BGF data were adjusted according to aggregate FF/UMEC/VI data using 11 baseline covariates; a supplementary unadjusted indirect treatment comparison was also conducted. P-values for these post-hoc analyses are not adjusted for Type I error. RESULTS: ACM over 52 weeks was statistically significantly reduced by 39% for BGF versus FF/UMEC/VI in the MAIC (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI]: 0.61 [0.38, 0.95], p = 0.030) and unadjusted analysis (HR [95% CI]: 0.61 [0.41, 0.92], p = 0.019). CONCLUSION: In this MAIC, which adjusted for population heterogeneity between ETHOS and IMPACT, ACM was significantly reduced with BGF versus FF/UMEC/VI in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (known as COPD) is a leading cause of death worldwide, being responsible for over 3 million deaths in 2019. People living with COPD are more likely to die. Importantly, a sudden worsening of COPD symptoms (known as an exacerbation) is associated with a higher chance of death from heart-related and breathing-related problems. Therefore, reducing risk of death is an important treatment goal for COPD. Of the three medications approved for treating COPD that combine three drugs in a single-inhaler device, there are two­referred to generically as budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) and fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol (FF/UMEC/VI)­that can reduce the risk of death in people living with COPD compared with treatments that combine two drugs. However, no studies have directly compared the risk of death in people living with COPD treated with these medicines. We compared the risk of death in people living with moderate-to-very severe COPD who received either BGF during a clinical trial called ETHOS or FF/UMEC/VI during a clinical trial called IMPACT. To make this comparison, we used a method called "matching-adjusted indirect comparison", which used specific features (such as sex, breathing difficulty, and whether they were current smokers) to match patients from the two studies to ensure similar groups were examined. Our analysis showed a 39% decrease in the chance of death in patients who received BGF compared with patients who received FF/UMEC/VI. This finding may be important for doctors to improve patient health and reduce the risk of death in people living with COPD.

Benefits of Budesonide/Glycopyrronium/Formoterol Fumarate Dihydrate on COPD Exacerbations, Lung Function, Symptoms, and Quality of Life Across Blood Eosinophil Ranges: A Post-Hoc Analysis of Data from ETHOS.

Purpose: Blood eosinophil (EOS) count can guide treatment decisions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). In the 52-week ETHOS study (NCT02465567), budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (BGF) triple therapy at two inhaled corticosteroid doses reduced moderate/severe exacerbation rates and improved lung function, symptoms, and disease-related quality of life (QoL) versus dual therapy with glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (GFF) or budesonide/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (BFF) in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD. This subgroup analysis evaluated treatment benefits in ETHOS by baseline EOS count. Methods: Patients (40-80 years) with a COPD history were randomly assigned 1:1:1:1 to receive BGF 320/14.4/10 µg, BGF 160/14.4/10 µg, GFF 14.4/10 µg, or BFF 320/10 µg via a metered-dose inhaler. This post-hoc analysis assessed endpoints by baseline EOS count using Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease thresholds (<100, ≥100, ≥100-<300, ≥300 cells/mm3), and investigated continuous relationships between treatment effects and EOS count on exacerbations, symptoms, disease-related QoL, lung function, and safety. Results: In the modified intention-to-treat population (n=8509), 82.6% had EOS counts ≥100 cells/mm3. BGF 320 reduced moderate/severe exacerbation rates versus GFF in the ≥100, ≥100-<300, and ≥300 subgroups; treatment differences increased with EOS count. BGF 320 improved rescue medication use and lung-function outcomes across all subgroups, and St George's Respiratory Questionnaire total score, Transition Dyspnea Index focal score, and Exacerbations of Chronic Pulmonary Disease Tool total score in all except the <100 subgroup versus GFF. Benefits of BGF 320 versus BFF were generally consistent across subgroups. Safety data were comparable across subgroups. Conclusion: Benefits of BGF versus GFF were observed across EOS counts, particularly at ≥100 cells/mm³; versus BFF, benefits were largely independent of EOS. These findings confirm that benefits of ICS-containing triple therapy are not restricted to EOS counts ≥300 cells/mm³, supporting recommendations to consider triple therapy in patients with an exacerbation history and EOS counts ≥100 cells/mm³.

Predictive modeling of COPD exacerbation rates using baseline risk factors.

BACKGROUND: Demographic and disease characteristics have been associated with the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. Using previously collected multinational clinical trial data, we developed models that use baseline risk factors to predict an individual's rate of moderate/severe exacerbations in the next year on various pharmacological treatments for COPD. METHODS: Exacerbation data from 20,054 patients in the ETHOS, KRONOS, TELOS, SOPHOS, and PINNACLE-1, PINNACLE-2, and PINNACLE-4 studies were pooled. Machine learning was used to identify predictors of moderate/severe exacerbation rates. Important factors were selected for generalized linear modeling, further informed by backward variable selection. An independent test set was held back for validation. RESULTS: Prior exacerbations, eosinophil count, forced expiratory volume in 1 s percent predicted, prior maintenance treatments, reliever medication use, sex, COPD Assessment Test score, smoking status, and region were significant predictors of exacerbation risk, with response to inhaled corticosteroids (ICSs) increasing with higher eosinophil counts, more prior exacerbations, or additional prior treatments. Model fit was similar in the training and test set. Prediction metrics were ~10% better in the full model than in a simplified model based only on eosinophil count, prior exacerbations, and ICS use. CONCLUSION: These models predicting rates of moderate/severe exacerbations can be applied to a broad range of patients with COPD in terms of airway obstruction, eosinophil counts, exacerbation history, symptoms, and treatment history. Understanding the relative and absolute risks related to these factors may be useful for clinicians in evaluating the benefit: risk ratio of various treatment decisions for individual patients.Clinical trials registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02465567, NCT02497001, NCT02766608, NCT02727660, NCT01854645, NCT01854658, NCT02343458, NCT03262012, NCT02536508, and NCT01970878).

Treatment Trials in Young Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Pre-Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients: Time to Move Forward.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the end result of a series of dynamic and cumulative gene-environment interactions over a lifetime. The evolving understanding of COPD biology provides novel opportunities for prevention, early diagnosis, and intervention. To advance these concepts, we propose therapeutic trials in two major groups of subjects: "young" individuals with COPD and those with pre-COPD. Given that lungs grow to about 20 years of age and begin to age at approximately 50 years, we consider "young" patients with COPD those patients in the age range of 20-50 years. Pre-COPD relates to individuals of any age who have respiratory symptoms with or without structural and/or functional abnormalities, in the absence of airflow limitation, and who may develop persistent airflow limitation over time. We exclude from the current discussion infants and adolescents because of their unique physiological context and COPD in older adults given their representation in prior randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We highlight the need of RCTs focused on COPD in young patients or pre-COPD to reduce disease progression, providing innovative approaches to identifying and engaging potential study subjects. We detail approaches to RCT design, including potential outcomes such as lung function, patient-reported outcomes, exacerbations, lung imaging, mortality, and composite endpoints. We critically review study design components such as statistical powering and analysis, duration of study treatment, and formats to trial structure, including platform, basket, and umbrella trials. We provide a call to action for treatment RCTs in 1) young adults with COPD and 2) those with pre-COPD at any age.

A randomized controlled trial of glycopyrrolate administered by metered dose inhaler in patients with uncontrolled asthma despite ICS/LABA treatment.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of three doses of glycopyrrolate metered dose inhaler (GP MDI) in patients with uncontrolled asthma despite treatment with inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting ß2-agonists (ICS/LABA) with or without tiotropium, to characterize the benefit of triple therapy. METHOD: This phase II/III, double-blind study randomized patients to 24 weeks' treatment with twice-daily GP MDI 36 µg, 18 µg, 9 µg, or placebo MDI (all delivered via Aerosphere inhalers), or once-daily open-label tiotropium 2.5 µg. Patients continued their own ICS/LABA regimen throughout the study. The primary endpoint was change from baseline in forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) area under the curve from 0 - 4 h (AUC0 - 4) at Week 24. Secondary endpoints included patient questionnaires to measure asthma control or symptoms. Safety was also assessed. RESULTS: The primary analysis (modified intent-to-treat) population included 1066 patients. The primary study endpoint was not met (changes from baseline in FEV1 AUC0 - 4 at Week 24 were 294 mL, 284 mL, 308 mL, 240 mL, and 347 mL for GP MDI 36 µg, GP MDI 18 µg, GP MDI 9 µg, placebo, and open-label tiotropium, respectively). There were no significant differences between treatment and placebo in secondary endpoints at Week 24. Post-hoc analyses using post-bronchodilator FEV1 as the baseline measurement, or averaging values across multiple baseline visits, showed a dose-related response to GP MDI. The incidence of adverse events was low and similar across treatments. CONCLUSION: Although this study did not meet its primary endpoint, post hoc analyses identified a dose-related response to GP MDI when alternative definitions of baseline FEV1 were used in the analyses.

Improvements in lung function with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate metered dose inhaler versus dual therapies in patients with COPD: a sub-study of the ETHOS trial.

BACKGROUND: In the phase III, 52-week ETHOS study in patients with moderate to very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF), at two inhaled corticosteroid dose levels, resulted in significantly lower moderate/severe exacerbation rates versus glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (GFF) and budesonide/formoterol fumarate (BFF). Here, we report results from the ETHOS pulmonary function test (PFT) sub-study, which assessed lung function in a subset of ETHOS patients. METHODS: ETHOS (NCT02465567) was a randomized, double-blind, multi-center, parallel-group study in patients with moderate to very severe COPD who had experienced ⩾1 moderate/severe exacerbation in the previous year. Patients received BGF 320/18/9.6 µg, BGF 160/18/9.6 µg, GFF 18/9.6 µg, or BFF 320/9.6 µg twice daily via a single metered dose Aerosphere inhaler for 52 weeks. A subset of patients participated in the 4-hour PFT sub-study; primary endpoints were change from baseline in morning pre-dose trough forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) versus GFF and FEV1 area under the curve from 0 to 4 hours (AUC0-4) versus BFF at week 24. RESULTS: The PFT modified intent-to-treat population included 3088 patients (mean age 64.4 years; mean reversibility post-albuterol 16.7%; mean post-albuterol FEV1% predicted 42.8). BGF 320/18/9.6 µg and 160/18/9.6 µg significantly improved morning pre-dose trough FEV1 at week 24 versus GFF (p ⩽ 0.0035 for both). Improvements in trough FEV1 were also observed at week 52 for BGF 320/18/9.6 µg and 160/18/9.6 µg versus GFF (p ⩽ 0.0005 for both). For FEV1 AUC0-4 at week 24, BGF 320/18/9.6 µg and 160/18/9.6 µg showed significant improvements versus BFF (p < 0.0001 for both). Improvements were maintained at week 52 (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: BGF 320/18/9.6 µg and 160/18/9.6 µg significantly improved trough FEV1versus GFF and FEV1 AUC0-4versus BFF at week 24. The lung function benefits with both doses of BGF were maintained following 52 weeks of treatment.The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Benefits of budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) on symptoms and quality of life in patients with COPD in the ETHOS trial.

BACKGROUND: We report the long-term effects of triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) vs glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (GFF) and budesonide/formoterol fumarate (BFF) on symptoms and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) over 52 weeks in the Phase III ETHOS study of patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD. METHODS: ETHOS was a randomized, double-blind, multi-center, parallel-group study in symptomatic patients with COPD who experienced ≥1 moderate/severe exacerbation in the previous year. Patients received twice-daily BGF 320/18/9.6 µg, BGF 160/18/9.6 µg, GFF 18/9.6 µg, or BFF 320/9.6 µg, administered via a single Aerosphere inhaler, for 52 weeks. RESULTS: The modified intent-to-treat population included 8509 patients (mean age 64.7 years; 59.7% male; mean COPD Assessment Test score, 19.6). BGF significantly reduced rescue medication use vs GFF and BFF (-0.53 puffs/day [p < 0.0001] and -0.35 puffs/day [p = 0.0002], respectively, with BGF 320 over 52 weeks). BGF 320 also significantly improved St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score over 24 and 52 weeks vs dual therapies, resulting in the greatest proportion of SGRQ responders vs dual therapies over 24 weeks (52.5% vs 42.5% [GFF] and 45.2% [BFF]) and 52 weeks (47.0% vs 37.8% [GFF] and 41.0% [BFF]). Similar results were observed with BGF 160. Benefits were also observed vs dual therapies in symptomatic endpoints including Transition Dyspnea Index focal score, EXAcerbations of Chronic pulmonary disease Tool total scores and Evaluating Respiratory Symptoms in COPD total scores over 24 and 52 weeks. CONCLUSIONS: BGF triple therapy improved symptoms and HRQoL vs dual therapies over 24 and 52 weeks in patients with moderate-to-very severe COPD.

Efficacy of budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol metered dose inhaler in patients with COPD: post-hoc analysis from the KRONOS study excluding patients with airway reversibility and high eosinophil counts.

BACKGROUND: In the Phase III KRONOS study, triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate metered dose inhaler (BGF MDI) was shown to reduce exacerbations and improve lung function versus glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (GFF) MDI in patients with moderate-to-very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, whether the benefits related to the ICS component of BGF are driven by patients with high blood eosinophil counts (EOS) and/or airway reversibility has not been previously studied. METHODS: KRONOS was a Phase III, double-blind, parallel-group, multicenter, randomized, controlled study of patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD. Patients were randomized 2:2:1:1 to receive BGF 320/14.4/10 µg, GFF 14.4/10 µg, budesonide/formoterol fumarate dihydrate (BFF) MDI 320/10 µg via a single Aerosphere inhaler, or open-label budesonide/formoterol fumarate dihydrate dry powder inhaler 400/12 µg (BUD/FORM DPI; Symbicort Turbuhaler) twice-daily for 24 weeks. Efficacy outcomes included in this post-hoc analysis were change from baseline in morning pre-dose trough FEV1 over weeks 12-24 and the rate of moderate-to-severe and severe COPD exacerbations. Adverse events in the non-reversible subgroup are also reported. RESULTS: Of 1896 patients analyzed, 948 (50%) were non-reversible and had EOS < 300 cells/mm3. In this group, BGF significantly improved morning pre-dose trough FEV1 versus BFF and BUD/FORM (least squares mean treatment difference, 95% confidence interval [CI] 69 mL [39, 99], unadjusted p < 0.0001 and 51 mL [20, 81], unadjusted p = 0.0011, respectively) and was comparable to GFF. BGF also significantly reduced annual moderate-to-severe exacerbation rates versus GFF (rate ratio [95% CI] 0.53 [0.37, 0.76], unadjusted p = 0.0005), with numerical reductions observed versus BFF and BUD/FORM. These results were similar for the overall study population. Safety findings were generally similar between non-reversible patients with EOS < 300 cells/mm3 and the overall population. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD without airway reversibility and EOS < 300 cells/mm3, BGF significantly improved morning pre-dose trough FEV1 versus BFF and BUD/FORM and significantly reduced the rate of moderate-to-severe exacerbations versus GFF. These findings demonstrate that BGF can provide benefits for a broad range of patients with COPD, and that the overall findings of the KRONOS primary analysis were not driven by patients with reversible airflow obstruction or high eosinophil counts. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02497001. Registered 14 July 2015, https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02497001.

Budesonide/Glycopyrrolate/Formoterol Fumarate Metered Dose Inhaler Improves Exacerbation Outcomes in Patients with COPD without a Recent Exacerbation History: A Subgroup Analysis of KRONOS.

PURPOSE: In the Phase III, 24-week KRONOS study (NCT02497001), triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate metered dose inhaler (BGF MDI) reduced exacerbation rates versus glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (GFF) MDI in patients with moderate-to-very severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and no requirement for a history of exacerbations. We report a post hoc analysis investigating whether the benefits observed were driven by patients with ≥1 exacerbation in the 12 months prior to the study. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients received BGF MDI 320/18/9.6 µg, GFF MDI 18/9.6 µg, budesonide/formoterol fumarate (BFF) MDI 320/9.6 µg, or budesonide/formoterol fumarate dry powder inhaler (BUD/FORM DPI) 400/12 µg twice-daily. Post hoc analyses were conducted on exacerbation and lung function results from patients with and without a documented exacerbation in the 12 months prior to the study. RESULTS: Overall, 74% (1411/1896) of the modified-intent-to-treat (mITT) population had no moderate/severe exacerbations in the 12 months prior to the study. BGF MDI reduced exacerbation rates versus GFF MDI in the prior (58%; unadjusted p=0.0003) and no prior (48%; unadjusted p=0.0001) exacerbations subgroups. The magnitude of reduction in exacerbation rates was generally similar within subgroups for BGF MDI versus BFF MDI and BUD/FORM DPI. In the prior exacerbations subgroup, risk during treatment for time to first exacerbation was lower with BGF MDI versus GFF MDI (p=0.0022) and BFF MDI (p=0.0110); excluding the first 30 days of data yielded similar results. The magnitude of reduction in exacerbation rates for BGF MDI compared with GFF MDI increased with eosinophil count. CONCLUSION: In patients with or without a history of exacerbations in the 12 months prior to the study, BGF MDI reduced exacerbation rates versus GFF MDI, suggesting results observed in the overall population were not driven by the small subgroup with a prior history of exacerbations.

Reduced All-Cause Mortality in the ETHOS Trial of Budesonide/Glycopyrrolate/Formoterol for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease. A Randomized, Double-Blind, Multicenter, Parallel-Group Study.

Rationale: In the phase III, 52-week ETHOS (Efficacy and Safety of Triple Therapy in Obstructive Lung Disease) trial in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (NCT02465567), triple therapy with budesonide/glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (BGF) significantly reduced all-cause mortality compared with glycopyrrolate/formoterol fumarate (GFF). However, 384 of 8,509 patients were missing vital status at Week 52 in the original analyses.Objectives: To assess the robustness of the ETHOS mortality findings after additional data retrieval for patients missing Week 52 vital status in the original analyses.Methods: Patients with moderate to very severe COPD and prior history of exacerbation received twice-daily dosing with 320/18/9.6 µg of BGF (BGF 320), 160/18/9.6 µg of BGF (BGF 160), 18/9.6 µg of GFF, or 320/9.6 µg of budesonide/formoterol fumarate (BFF) (all delivered via a single metered-dose Aerosphere inhaler). Time to death (all-cause) was a prespecified secondary endpoint.Measurements and Main Results: In the final retrieved dataset, which included Week 52 vital status for 99.6% of the intent-to-treat population, risk of death with BGF 320 was significantly lower than GFF (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.33-0.80; unadjusted P = 0.0035). There were no significant differences in mortality when comparing BGF 320 with BFF (hazard ratio, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.44-1.16; P = 0.1721), nor were significant differences observed when comparing BGF 160 against either dual comparator. Results were similar when the first 30, 60, or 90 days of treatment were excluded from the analysis. Deaths from cardiovascular causes occurred in 0.5%, 0.8%, 1.4%, and 0.5% of patients in the BGF 320, BGF 160, GFF, and BFF groups, respectively.Conclusions: Using final retrieved vital status data, triple therapy with BGF 320 reduced the risk of death compared with GFF, but was not shown to significantly reduce the risk of death compared with BFF, in patients with COPD. Triple therapy containing a lower dose of inhaled corticosteroid (BGF 160) was not shown to significantly reduce the risk of death compared with the dual therapy comparators.

The Long-Term Burden of COPD Exacerbations During Maintenance Therapy and Lung Function Decline.

Introduction: Early identification of preventable risk factors of COPD progression is important. Whether exacerbations have a negative impact on disease progression is largely unknown. We investigated whether the long-term occurrence of exacerbations is associated with lung function decline at early stages of COPD. Methods: Patients diagnosed with mild/moderate COPD (obstruction and FEV1% predicted 50-90%), aged ≥35 years, and a smoking history, who had ≥6 years of UK electronic medical records after initiation of maintenance therapy were studied. Multilevel mixed-effect linear regression was performed to determine the association between the count of any year in which the patient had ≥1 exacerbation over a 6-year period and FEV1 decline, adjusted for sex, age, anthropometrics and smoking habits. Exacerbations were defined as any prescription for an acute oral corticosteroid course and/or lower respiratory-related antibiotics and/or any COPD-related emergency or inpatient hospitalization. Results: Of 11,337 patients included (mean age 65 years; 49% female) 31.6%, 23.3%, 16.6%, 11.6%, 8.1%, 5.3% and 3.4% had 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 years with ≥1 exacerbation. The mean annual FEV1 decline accelerated by 1.50 mL/year (95% Confidence Interval 1.02; 1.98) with every additional year with ≥1 exacerbation from 31.0 mL/year in subjects without any exacerbation to 40.0 mL/year in patients experiencing ≥1 exacerbation every year. Patients with more years with ≥1 exacerbation had a lower mean FEV1 at first diagnosis: 14.7 mL (11.7; 17.8) lower with every additional year with exacerbations. When counting years with ≥2 exacerbations, greater effects were observed (2.19 [1.50; 2.88]  mL/year excess decline per year with ≥2 exacerbations; 16.5 mL [12.1; 20.8] lower FEV1 at diagnosis). Conclusion: Patients who experienced a greater exacerbation burden after initiation of maintenance therapy had worse lung function at diagnosis and a more rapid lung function decline thereafter, which emphasizes the need for better treatment strategies.

Triple Inhaled Therapy at Two Glucocorticoid Doses in Moderate-to-Very-Severe COPD.

BACKGROUND: Triple fixed-dose regimens of an inhaled glucocorticoid, a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), and a long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) have been studied at single dose levels of inhaled glucocorticoid, but studies at two dose levels are lacking. METHODS: In a 52-week, phase 3, randomized trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of triple therapy at two dose levels of inhaled glucocorticoid in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and at least one exacerbation in the past year, we assigned patients in a 1:1:1:1 ratio to receive twice-daily inhaled doses of triple therapy (inhaled glucocorticoid [320 µg or 160 µg of budesonide], a LAMA [18 µg of glycopyrrolate], and a LABA [9.6 µg of formoterol]) or one of two dual therapies (18 µg of glycopyrrolate plus 9.6 µg of formoterol or 320 µg of budesonide plus 9.6 µg of formoterol). The primary end point was the annual rate (the estimated mean number per patient per year) of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations, as analyzed in the modified intention-to-treat population with the use of on-treatment data only. RESULTS: The modified intention-to-treat population comprised 8509 patients. The annual rates of moderate or severe exacerbations were 1.08 in the 320-µg-budesonide triple-therapy group (2137 patients), 1.07 in the 160-µg-budesonide triple-therapy group (2121 patients), 1.42 in the glycopyrrolate-formoterol group (2120 patients), and 1.24 in the budesonide-formoterol group (2131 patients). The rate was significantly lower with 320-µg-budesonide triple therapy than with glycopyrrolate-formoterol (24% lower: rate ratio, 0.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.69 to 0.83; P<0.001) or budesonide-formoterol (13% lower: rate ratio, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.95; P = 0.003). Similarly, the rate was significantly lower with 160-µg-budesonide triple therapy than with glycopyrrolate-formoterol (25% lower: rate ratio, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.69 to 0.83; P<0.001) or budesonide-formoterol (14% lower: rate ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.95; P = 0.002). The incidence of any adverse event was similar across the treatment groups (range, 61.7 to 64.5%); the incidence of confirmed pneumonia ranged from 3.5 to 4.5% in the groups that included inhaled glucocorticoid use and was 2.3% in the glycopyrrolate-formoterol group. CONCLUSIONS: Triple therapy with twice-daily budesonide (at either the 160-µg or 320-µg dose), glycopyrrolate, and formoterol resulted in a lower rate of moderate or severe COPD exacerbations than glycopyrrolate-formoterol or budesonide-formoterol. (Funded by AstraZeneca, ETHOS ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02465567.).

Association between COPD exacerbations and lung function decline during maintenance therapy.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the impact of exacerbations on COPD progression or whether inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) use and blood eosinophil count (BEC) affect progression. We aimed to assess this in a prospective observational study. METHODS: The study population included patients with mild to moderate COPD, aged ≥35 years, with a smoking history, who were followed up for ≥3 years from first to last spirometry recording using two large UK electronic medical record databases: Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) and Optimum Patient Care Research Database (OPCRD). Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models were used to determine the relationship between annual exacerbation rate following initiation of therapy (ICS vs non-ICS) and FEV1 decline. Effect modification by blood eosinophils was studied through interaction terms. RESULTS: Of 12178 patients included (mean age 66 years; 48% female), 8981 (74%) received ICS. In patients with BEC ≥350 cells/µL not on ICS, each exacerbation was associated with subsequent acceleration of FEV1 decline of 19.4 mL/year (95% CI 12.0 to 26.7, p<0.0001). This excess decline was reduced by 15.1 mL/year (6.6 to 23.6) to 4.3 mL/year (1.9 to 6.7, p<0.0001) in those with BEC ≥350 cells/µL treated with ICS. CONCLUSION: Exacerbations are associated with a more rapid loss of lung function among COPD patients with elevated blood eosinophils, defined as ≥350 cells/µL, not treated with ICS. More aggressive prevention of exacerbations using ICS in such patients may prevent excess loss of lung function.

Efficacy of Budesonide/Glycopyrronium/Formoterol Fumarate Metered Dose Inhaler (BGF MDI) Versus Other Inhaled Corticosteroid/Long-Acting Muscarinic Antagonist/Long-Acting ß2-Agonist (ICS/LAMA/LABA) Triple Combinations in COPD: A Systematic Literature Review and Network Meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Triple inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting muscarinic antagonist/long-acting ß2-agonist (ICS/LAMA/LABA) combination therapy is recommended for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who experience further exacerbations/symptoms on dual LAMA/LABA or ICS/LABA therapy. The relative efficacy of budesonide/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate metered dose inhaler 320/18/9.6 µg (BGF MDI) in COPD was compared with other ICS/LAMA/LABA fixed-dose and open combination therapies in a network meta-analysis (NMA). METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify randomized controlled trials of at least 10-week duration, including at least one fixed-dose or open combination triple therapy arm, in patients with moderate to very severe COPD. Studies were assessed for methodological quality and risk of bias. A three-level hierarchical Bayesian NMA model was used to determine the exacerbation rate per patient per year as well as the following outcomes at week 24: changes from baseline in pre-dose trough forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), post-dose peak FEV1, and St. George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total score; proportion of SGRQ responders; and Transition Dyspnea Index focal score. Change from baseline in rescue medication use over weeks 12-24 was also analyzed. Meta-regression and sensitivity analyses were used to assess heterogeneity across studies. RESULTS: Eighteen studies (n = 29,232 patients) contributed to the NMA. ICS/LABA dual combinations were combined as a single treatment group to create a connected network. Across all outcomes, there were no statistically significant differences between BGF MDI and other triple ICS/LAMA/LABA fixed-dose (fluticasone furoate/umeclidinium/vilanterol and beclomethasone dipropionate/glycopyrronium/formoterol fumarate) and open combinations with data available within the network. Results from sensitivity analyses and meta-regression were consistent with the base-case scenario. CONCLUSION: This NMA suggested that BGF MDI has comparable efficacy to other ICS/LAMA/LABA fixed-dose and open triple combination therapies in reducing exacerbations and improving lung function and symptoms in patients with moderate to very severe COPD. Further research is warranted as additional evidence regarding triple therapies, especially fixed-dose combinations, becomes available.