Factors affecting the nesting success of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevational gradient.

Montane birds experience a range of challenges that may limit their breeding success, including nest predation and severe climactic conditions. The continuing effects of climate change are causing shifts in biotic and abiotic factors that may compound these threats to montane bird species. In northeastern montane forests, many bird species are shifting downslope, potentially as the result of increased precipitation and temperature at higher elevations. Although lower elevations might be more favorable in terms of climactic conditions, nest predation is higher at lower elevations. Thus, montane birds might be faced with the opposing pressures of adverse climactic conditions at higher elevations and increased predation at lower elevations. We monitored nests of Swainson's Thrush (Catharus ustulatus) along an elevation gradient in the White Mountain National Forest in New Hampshire in 2016, 2018, 2019, and 2021 to examine the effect of biotic and abiotic factors on daily nest survival rate (DSR). Linear time explained the most variation of DSR in AICc model comparison, indicating that DSR decreases across the breeding season. Rain intensity (mm/h) had a weak negative effect on DSR, indicating that heavier rain per hour decreases Swainson's Thrush DSR. Moreover, we found some support for a negative interaction effect of elevation in conjunction with minimum daily temperature: DSR of Swainson's Thrush nests at low elevations (281 m) increased with increasing minimum daily temperatures and decreased at high elevations with increasing minimum daily temperatures. Our results suggest nesting survival of montane breeding birds may be at risk as heavier precipitation events become more frequent and intense due to the changing climate and raises the possibility that other passerine species could be at risk in this system.

Strategic restoration planning for land birds in the Colorado River Delta, Mexico.

Ecological restoration is an essential strategy for mitigating the current biodiversity crisis, yet restoration actions are costly. We used systematic conservation planning principles to design an approach that prioritizes restoration sites for birds and tested it in a riparian forest restoration program in the Colorado River Delta. Restoration goals were to maximize the abundance and diversity of 15 priority birds with a variety of habitat preferences. We built abundance models for priority birds based on the current landscape, and predicted bird distributions and relative abundances under a scenario of complete riparian forest restoration throughout our study area. Then, we used Zonation conservation planning software to rank this restored landscape based on core areas for all priority birds. The locations with the highest ranks represented the highest priorities for restoration and were located throughout the river reach. We optimized how much of the available landscape to restore by simulating restoration of the top 10-90% of ranked sites in 10% intervals. We found that total diversity was maximized when 40% of the landscape was restored, and mean relative abundance was maximized when 80% of the landscape was restored. The results suggest that complete restoration is not optimal for this community of priority birds and restoration of approximately 60% of the landscape would provide a balance between maximum relative abundance and diversity. Subsequent planning efforts will combine our results with an assessment of restoration costs to provide further decision support for the restoration-siting process. Our approach can be applied to any landscape-scale restoration program to improve the return on investment of limited economic resources for restoration.

Convergent remodelling of the gut microbiome is associated with host energetic condition over long-distance migration.

The gut microbiome can be thought of as a virtual organ given its immense metabolic capacity and profound effects on host physiology. Migratory birds are capable of adaptively modulating many aspects of their physiology to facilitate long-distance movements, raising the hypothesis that their microbiome may undergo a parallel remodeling process that helps to meet the energetic demands of migration.To test this hypothesis, we investigated changes in gut microbiome composition and function over the fall migration of the Blackpoll Warbler (Setophaga striata), which exhibits one of the longest known autumnal migratory routes of any songbird and rapidly undergoes extensive physiological remodeling during migration.Overall, our results showed that the Blackpoll Warbler microbiome differed significantly across phases of fall migration. This pattern was driven by a dramatic increase in the relative abundance of Proteobacteria, and more specifically a single 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequence variant belonging to the family Enterobacteriaceae. Further, Blackpoll Warblers exhibited a progressive reduction in microbiome diversity and within-group variance over migration, indicating convergence of microbiome composition among individuals during long-distance migration. Metagenomic analysis revealed that the gut microbiome of staging individuals was enriched in bacterial pathways involved in vitamin, amino acid, and fatty acid biosynthesis, as well as carbohydrate metabolism, and that these pathways were in turn positively associated with host body mass and subcutaneous fat deposits.Together, these results provide evidence that the gut microbiome of migratory birds may undergo adaptive remodeling to meet the physiological and energetic demands of long-distance migration.

Integrating data types to estimate spatial patterns of avian migration across the Western Hemisphere.

For many avian species, spatial migration patterns remain largely undescribed, especially across hemispheric extents. Recent advancements in tracking technologies and high-resolution species distribution models (i.e., eBird Status and Trends products) provide new insights into migratory bird movements and offer a promising opportunity for integrating independent data sources to describe avian migration. Here, we present a three-stage modeling framework for estimating spatial patterns of avian migration. First, we integrate tracking and band re-encounter data to quantify migratory connectivity, defined as the relative proportions of individuals migrating between breeding and nonbreeding regions. Next, we use estimated connectivity proportions along with eBird occurrence probabilities to produce probabilistic least-cost path (LCP) indices. In a final step, we use generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) both to evaluate the ability of LCP indices to accurately predict (i.e., as a covariate) observed locations derived from tracking and band re-encounter data sets versus pseudo-absence locations during migratory periods and to create a fully integrated (i.e., eBird occurrence, LCP, and tracking/band re-encounter data) spatial prediction index for mapping species-specific seasonal migrations. To illustrate this approach, we apply this framework to describe seasonal migrations of 12 bird species across the Western Hemisphere during pre- and postbreeding migratory periods (i.e., spring and fall, respectively). We found that including LCP indices with eBird occurrence in GAMMs generally improved the ability to accurately predict observed migratory locations compared to models with eBird occurrence alone. Using three performance metrics, the eBird + LCP model demonstrated equivalent or superior fit relative to the eBird-only model for 22 of 24 species-season GAMMs. In particular, the integrated index filled in spatial gaps for species with over-water movements and those that migrated over land where there were few eBird sightings and, thus, low predictive ability of eBird occurrence probabilities (e.g., Amazonian rainforest in South America). This methodology of combining individual-based seasonal movement data with temporally dynamic species distribution models provides a comprehensive approach to integrating multiple data types to describe broad-scale spatial patterns of animal movement. Further development and customization of this approach will continue to advance knowledge about the full annual cycle and conservation of migratory birds.

Length polymorphisms at two candidate genes explain variation of migratory behaviors in blackpoll warblers (Setophaga striata).

Migratory behaviors such as the timing and duration of migration are genetically inherited and can be under strong natural selection, yet we still know very little about the specific genes or molecular pathways that control these behaviors. Studies in candidate genes Clock and Adcyap1 have revealed that both of these loci can be significantly correlated with migratory behaviors in birds, though observed relationships appear to vary across species. We investigated geographic genetic structure of Clock and Adcyap1 in four populations of blackpoll warblers (Setophaga striata), a Neotropical-Nearctic migrant that exhibits geographic variation in migratory timing and duration across its boreal breeding distribution. Further, we used data on migratory timing and duration, obtained from light-level geolocator trackers to investigate candidate genotype-phenotype relationships at the individual level. While we found no geographic structure in either candidate gene, we did find evidence that candidate gene lengths are correlated with five of the six migratory traits. Maximum Clock allele length was significantly and negatively associated with spring arrival date. Minimum Adcyap1 allele length was significantly and negatively associated with spring departure date and positively associated with fall arrival date at the wintering grounds. Additionally, we found a significant interaction between Clock and Adcyap1 allele lengths on both spring and fall migratory duration. Adcyap1 heterozygotes also had significantly shorter migration duration in both spring and fall compared to homozygotes. Our results support the growing body of evidence that Clock and Adcyap1 allele lengths are correlated with migratory behaviors in birds.

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change.

Transoceanic migration by a 12 g songbird.

Many fundamental aspects of migration remain a mystery, largely due to our inability to follow small animals over vast spatial areas. For more than 50 years, it has been hypothesized that, during autumn migration, blackpoll warblers (Setophaga striata) depart northeastern North America and undertake a non-stop flight over the Atlantic Ocean to either the Greater Antilles or the northeastern coast of South America. Using miniaturized light-level geolocators, we provide the first irrefutable evidence that the blackpoll warbler, a 12 g boreal forest songbird, completes an autumn transoceanic migration ranging from 2270 to 2770 km (mean ± s.d.: 2540 ± 257) and requiring up to 3 days (62 h ± 10) of non-stop flight. This is one of the longest non-stop overwater flights recorded for a songbird and confirms what has long been believed to be one of the most extraordinary migratory feats on the planet.

Land cover and rainfall interact to shape waterbird community composition.

Human land cover can degrade estuaries directly through habitat loss and fragmentation or indirectly through nutrient inputs that reduce water quality. Strong precipitation events are occurring more frequently, causing greater hydrological connectivity between watersheds and estuaries. Nutrient enrichment and dissolved oxygen depletion that occur following these events are known to limit populations of benthic macroinvertebrates and commercially harvested species, but the consequences for top consumers such as birds remain largely unknown. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS) and structural equation modeling (SEM) to understand how land cover and annual variation in rainfall interact to shape waterbird community composition in Chesapeake Bay, USA. The MDS ordination indicated that urban subestuaries shifted from a mixed generalist-specialist community in 2002, a year of severe drought, to generalist-dominated community in 2003, of year of high rainfall. The SEM revealed that this change was concurrent with a sixfold increase in nitrate-N concentration in subestuaries. In the drought year of 2002, waterbird community composition depended only on the direct effect of urban development in watersheds. In the wet year of 2003, community composition depended both on this direct effect and on indirect effects associated with high nitrate-N inputs to northern parts of the Bay, particularly in urban subestuaries. Our findings suggest that increased runoff during periods of high rainfall can depress water quality enough to alter the composition of estuarine waterbird communities, and that this effect is compounded in subestuaries dominated by urban development. Estuarine restoration programs often chart progress by monitoring stressors and indicators, but rarely assess multivariate relationships among them. Estuarine management planning could be improved by tracking the structure of relationships among land cover, water quality, and waterbirds. Unraveling these complex relationships may help managers identify and mitigate ecological thresholds that occur with increasing human land cover.