Spatial distribution of zero-dose children in Ethiopia: evidence for a targeted intervention from a large-scale cross-sectional evaluation survey.

Background: Ethiopia is the fourth leading contributor to the global total of zero-dose children (those who lack the first dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis containing vaccine) and has substantial regional variations in zero-dose children. This study explored the spatial pattern of zero-dose children aged 12-35 months in Ethiopia. Methods: A survey was conducted in pastoralist regions, developing regions, newly-established regions, conflict-affected areas, underserved urban populations, hard-to-reach areas, internally displaced populations, and refugees. Spatial autocorrelation was measured using the Global Moran'sIstatistic. Getis-Ord Gi* statistics was applied to calculate the spatial variability of the high and low prevalence rates of zero-dose children. The spatial interpolation technique was also applied to estimate unknown values that fall between known values. Inverse distance weighting interpolation method was used to predict the risk of zero-dose children. ArcGIS version 10.8 was used for the spatial analysis. Results: A total of 3,646 children aged 12-35 months were included in the study. The spatial distribution of zero-dose children in Ethiopia was non-random (Global Moran'sI = 0.178971, p < 0.001). According to the hotspot analysis, western, eastern and northern parts of Somali and western and central parts of Afar regions had the highest load of zero-dose children (hotspot areas) followed by the Northeastern part of Amhara and southeastern part of Oromia regions. On the other hand, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples, Sidama, and the Eastern part of the Southwest Ethiopia peoples regions were identified as cold spot areas. The spatial interpolation analysis corresponded with the hotspot analysis results where western and central parts of Afar and western, eastern and northern parts of Somali regions were identified as high-risk areas for zero-dose children. However, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, Harari, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples, Sidama, Southwest Ethiopia Peoples, and parts of Oromia were found to be low-risk areas for zero-dose children. Conclusion: The spatial analysis identified that zero-dose children had a significant spatial variation across the study areas. High clusters of zero-dose children were detected in Afar and Somali regions. Implementing routine and mop-up vaccination campaigns in the identified hotspot areas will help Ethiopia to improve coverage and reduce immunization inequalities.

Perspectives on the Performance of the Ethiopian Vaccine Supply Chain and Logistics System after the Last Mile Delivery Initiative: A Phenomenological Study.

Uninterrupted availability of vaccines requires a robust vaccine supply chain and logistics system (VSCLS). With special focus on remote and underserved settings, we assessed the reach and bottlenecks of the Ethiopian VSCLS after the initiation of the last mile transition. We explored the perspectives of key stakeholders using a qualitative phenomenological study. More than 300 in-depth interviews and 22 focus group discussions were conducted. The study was sequentially implemented over two phases to understand the bottlenecks at national and regional (Phase I) and lower (Phase II) levels. After the transition, the Ethiopian Pharmaceutical Supply Service started supplying vaccines directly to health facilities, bypassing intermediaries. The transition reduced supply hiccups and enabled the health sector to focus on its core activities. However, in remote areas, achievements were modest, and health facilities have been receiving supplies indirectly through district health offices. By design, health posts collect vaccines from health centers, causing demotivation of health extension workers and frequent closure of health posts. Challenges of the VSCLS include artificial shortage due to ill forecasting and failure to request needs on time, lack of functional refrigerators secondary to scarcity of skilled technicians and spare parts, and absence of dependable backup power at health centers. Vaccine wastages owing to poor forecasts, negligence, and cold chain problems are common. The VSCLS has not yet sustainably embraced digital logistics solutions. The system is overstrained by frequent outbreak responses and introduction of new vaccines. We concluded that the transition has improved the VSCLS, but the reach remains suboptimal in remote areas.

Oral and Inactivated Polio Vaccine Coverage and Determinants of Coverage Inequality Among the Most At-Risk Populations in Ethiopia.

Combining oral (OPV) and inactivated (IPV) poliovirus vaccines prevents importation of poliovirus and emergence of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus. We measured the coverage with IPV and third dose of OPV (OPV-3) and identified determinants of coverage inequality in the most at-risk populations in Ethiopia. A national survey representing 10 partly overlapping underserved populations-pastoralists, conflict-affected areas, urban slums, hard-to-reach settings, developing regions, newly formed regions, internally displaced people (IDPs), refugees, and districts neighboring international and interregional boundaries-was conducted among children 12 to 35 months old (N = 3,646). Socioeconomic inequality was measured using the concentration index (CIX) and decomposed using a regression-based approach. One-third (95% CI: 31.5-34.0%) of the children received OPV-3 and IPV. The dual coverage was below 50% in developing regions (19.2%), pastoralists (22.0%), IDPs (22.3%), districts neighboring international (24.1%) and interregional (33.3%) boundaries, refugees (27.0%), conflict-affected areas (29.3%), newly formed regions (33.5%), and hard-to-reach areas (38.9%). Conversely, coverage was better in urban slums (78%). Children from poorest households, living in villages that do not have health posts, and having limited health facility access had increased odds of not receiving the vaccines. Low paternal education, dissatisfaction with vaccination service, fear of vaccine side effects, living in female-headed households, having employed and less empowered mothers were also risk factors. IPV-OPV3 coverage favored the rich (CIX = -0.161, P < 0.001), and causes of inequality were: inaccessibility of health facilities (13.3%), dissatisfaction with vaccination service (12.8%), and maternal (4.9%) and paternal (4.9%) illiteracy. Polio vaccination coverage in the most at-risk populations in Ethiopia is suboptimal, threatening the polio eradication initiative.