RESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: In primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), static liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has proven prognostic value. However, the added prognostic value of LSM time course in this disease remains uncertain. METHODS: We conducted an international retrospective cohort study among patients with PBC treated with ursodeoxycholic acid and followed by vibration-controlled transient elastography between 2003 and 2022. Using joint modeling, the association of LSM trajectory and the incidence of serious clinical events (SCE), defined as cirrhosis complications, liver transplantation, or death, was quantified using the hazard ratio and its confidence interval. RESULTS: A total of 6362 LSMs were performed in 3078 patients (2007 on ursodeoxycholic acid alone; 13% with cirrhosis), in whom 316 SCE occurred over 14,445 person-years (median follow-up, 4.2 years; incidence rate, 21.9 per 1000 person-years). LSM progressed in 59% of patients (mean, 0.39 kPa/year). After adjusting for prognostic factors at baseline, including LSM, any relative change in LSM was associated with a significant variation in SCE risk (P < .001). For example, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) associated with a 20% annual variation in LSM were 2.13 (1.89-2.45) for the increase and 0.40 (0.33-0.46) for the decrease. The association between LSM trajectory and SCE risk persisted regardless of treatment response or duration, when patients with cirrhosis were excluded, and when only death or liver transplantation was considered. CONCLUSIONS: Tracking longitudinal changes in LSM using vibration-controlled transient elastography provides valuable insights into PBC prognosis, offering a robust predictive measure for the risk of SCE. LSM could be used as a clinically relevant surrogate end point in PBC clinical trials.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: Agile scores, including liver stiffness measurements (LSM) and routine clinical/laboratory biomarkers, have been developed for advanced fibrosis (F≥3) and cirrhosis (F4), respectively, in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). We independently validated the diagnostic accuracy of these scores in MASLD, alcohol-related liver disease (ALD) and chronic hepatitis B or C (CHB/C) and assessed them in clinical algorithms with FIB-4 and LSM. METHODS: We included 4,243 patients (MASLD: 912, ALD: 386, CHB: 597, CHC: 2,348) with LSM, liver biopsy and laboratory tests within 6 months. FIB-4, Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores were calculated. RESULTS: For F≥3, the diagnostic accuracy of Agile 3+ and LSM were similar in MASLD (AUC: 0.86 vs. 0.86, p = 0.831) and ALD (0.92 vs. 0.94, p = 0.123). For cirrhosis, Agile 4 was similar to LSM in MASLD (0.89 vs. 0.90, p = 0.412) and ALD (0.94 vs. 0.95, p = 0.513). Agile 3+/4 performed worse than LSM in CHB/C. Using predefined dual thresholds of 90% sensitivity/specificity, correct classification rates in MASLD were 66% vs. 61% using Agile 3+ vs. LS dual cut-offs and 71% vs. 67% in ALD, respectively. When using Agile 3+ or LSM as a second step after FIB-4 >1.3, correct classification rates were higher with Agile 3+ than LSM, both for MASLD (75% vs. 71%) and ALD (76% vs. 72%), with fewer indeterminate results. Positive agreement of LSM and Agile 3+/4 significantly increased the specificity of a diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. CONCLUSION: Agile 3+ and Agile 4 have equal diagnostic accuracy with LSM in both MASLD and ALD but result in fewer indeterminate results. Sequential use of FIB-4 and Agile 3+/4 or concurrent Agile 3+/4 and LSM can be used to further optimize F≥3 diagnosis. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: As of today, it is accepted that there will be no single non-invasive test or an isolated cut-off for identifying patients with advanced chronic liver disease. Here, we confirmed that Agile 3+ and Agile 4 scores are useful alternatives to simple liver stiffness measurement in diagnosing advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in steatotic liver disease, but they do not perform as well in chronic viral hepatitis. Agile scores can help optimize the diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis in a dual cut-off strategy by reducing the number of indeterminate results either alone or in a sequential strategy after FIB-4. The combination of Agile scores and liver stiffness measurement can further increase our confidence in a positive diagnosis of advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. These novel combination strategies can be useful tools to predict the likelihood of advanced stages of liver disease with the highest possible accuracy in a secondary/tertiary healthcare setting.