The geography of COVID-19 vaccine completion by age in North Carolina, U.S.

BACKGROUND: Geographic variation in COVID-19 vaccination can create areas at higher risk of infection, complications, and death, exacerbating health inequalities. This ecological study examined geographic patterns of COVID-19 vaccine completion, using age and sociodemographic characteristics as possible explanatory mechanisms. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using 2020-2022 data from the North Carolina COVID-19 Vaccination Management System and U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, at the Zip code-level, we evaluated completion of the primary COVID-19 vaccine series across age groups. We examined geographic clustering of age-specific completion by Zip code and evaluated similarity of the age-specific geographic patterns. Using unadjusted and adjusted spatial autoregressive models, we examined associations between sociodemographic characteristics and age-specific vaccine completion. COVID-19 vaccine completion was moderately geographically clustered in younger groups, with lower clustering in older groups. Urban areas had clusters of higher vaccine completion. Younger and middle-aged groups were the most similar in completion geographically, while the oldest group was most dissimilar to other age groups. Higher income was associated with higher completion in adjusted models across all age groups, while a higher percent of Black residents was associated with higher completion for some groups. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccination completion is more variable among younger age groups in North Carolina, and it is higher in urban areas with higher income. Higher completion in areas with more Black residents may reflect the success of racial equity efforts in the state. The findings show a need to reach younger populations and lower income areas that were not prioritized during early vaccination distribution.

Correlation Among Neighborhood-level Measures of the Tobacco Retail Environment.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco retailer density and distance to tobacco retailers are understood to influence tobacco-related behaviors; however, there is no general agreement on how to best characterize or measure the tobacco retail environment (TRE). In this data-driven analysis, we examine similarities among neighborhood-level measures of the TRE and assess how geographic resolution of the neighborhood units may affect them. METHODS: We used locations of likely tobacco retailers in the United States (US) to calculate multiple retailer count, density, and distance measures. Measures were calculated at the Census block group, tract, and county (including county equivalents) levels of geographic aggregation. Spearman's correlation was used to evaluate similarity among the TRE measures. RESULTS: At the block group and tract level, correlation among all TRE measures ranged from slightly negative (ρ = -0.03) to nearly perfect (ρ = 0.99). At both levels of aggregation, distance-based TRE measures were highly correlated (ρ > 0.76). At the block group level, simple count of retailers was highly correlated with the density measures (ρ > 0.83), and at the tract level, simple count was moderately to highly correlated with the density measures (ρ > 0.5). Findings were generally similar at the county level; a notable deviation was that retailers per person was negatively correlated with all other TRE measures (range from ρ = -0.08 to ρ = -0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Some common measures were not correlated, suggesting they capture different aspects of the TRE; similarity among the various measures also varied by level of geographic aggregation. IMPLICATIONS: Because the tobacco retail environment shapes people's tobacco-related behaviors, using appropriate measures to characterize it at a neighborhood-level is paramount. Our work highlights both the similarities and differences among a set of common measures, thereby suggesting the measures may be capturing different aspects of the overall retail environment. Our findings regarding geographic level of aggregation underscore the importance of neighborhood definition in any tobacco retail environment analysis.

Indicators of inequity: Exploring the complexities of operationalizing area-level structural racism.

•Examines two types of area-level indicators commonly used in structural racism and health research.•Uses choropleth maps to assess the spatial patterning of the area-level indicators.•Offers methodological considerations for using area-level indicators.•Highlights the prospects and limits of using area-level indicators as proxies of structural racism.

Geographic Access to Fertility Counseling among Adolescent and Young Adult Women with Cancer in North Carolina.

BACKGROUND: Fertility counseling is recommended for adolescent and young adult women facing gonadotoxic cancer therapy. However, fertility care is subspecialized medical care offered at a limited number of institutions, making geographic access a potential barrier to guideline-concordant care. We assessed the relationship between geographic access and receipt of fertility counseling among adolescent and young adult women with cancer. METHODS: Using data from the North Carolina Central Cancer Registry, we identified women diagnosed with lymphoma, gynecologic cancer, or breast cancer at ages 15 to 39 years during 2004 to 2015. Eligible women were invited to complete an online survey on various topics, including fertility counseling. Geographic access was measured, using geocoded addresses, as vehicular travel time from residence to the nearest fertility clinic available at diagnosis. Multivariable regression models were used to examine the association between travel time and receipt of fertility counseling by provider type: health care provider versus fertility specialist. RESULTS: Analyses included 380 women. The median travel time to a fertility clinic was 31 (IQR: 17-71) minutes. Overall, 75% received fertility counseling from a health care provider and 16% by a fertility specialist. Women who lived ≥30 minutes from a clinic were 13% less likely to receive fertility counseling by a health care provider (prevalence ratio: 0.87; 95% confidence interval, 0.75-1.00) and 49% less likely to receive counseling by a fertility specialist (prevalence ratio: 0.51; 95% confidence interval, 0.28-0.93). CONCLUSIONS: Women who lived further away from fertility clinics were less likely to receive fertility counseling. IMPACT: Interventions to improve access to fertility counseling should include strategies to alleviate the burden of geographic access.

Hepatitis B Vaccine Refusal Trends in Washington, DC, Newborns, 2017-2022.

This cross-sectional study evaluates trends in rates of hepatitis B vaccine birth dose refusals in Washington, DC, from 2017 to 2022.

Naloxone Availability and Cost After Transition to an Over-the-Counter Product.

Importance: The US Food and Drug Administration approved Narcan, a nasal spray formulation of naloxone, for sale as an over-the-counter (OTC) medication in March 2023. The purpose of OTC approval was to improve naloxone accessibility to reduce opioid overdoses; however, research has not yet evaluated whether naloxone's availability and cost changed since this policy was implemented. Objective: To evaluate whether the accessibility and cost of naloxone at North Carolina community pharmacies changed after OTC naloxone became available and whether cost and availability varied by pharmacy type and urbanicity. Design, Setting, and Participants: This longitudinal telephone-based secret shopper survey study included a stratified sample of 202 North Carolina community pharmacies, including health department, independent, and chain pharmacies. There were 2 separate data collection efforts from March to April 2023 (before OTC naloxone could be sold at pharmacies) and November 2023 to January 2024 (after OTC naloxone was sold at pharmacies). Exposure: OTC naloxone first became available for sale at community pharmacies in September 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcomes were same-day availability of naloxone without a clinician-issued prescription and the quoted out-of-pocket cost for cash-paying patients. Results: Data were collected from 192 pharmacies. Same-day naloxone availability increased from 42.2% (81 of 192) before OTC naloxone availability to 57.8% (111 of 192) after (P < .001). The mean (SD) quoted out-of-pocket cost decreased from $90.93 ($42.6) pre-OTC availability to $62.67 ($41.0) post-OTC availability (P < .001). Independent pharmacies had higher mean (SD) costs than chain pharmacies in both the pre-OTC phase ($109.47 [$37.90] vs $86.40 [$35.70]; P < .001) and post-OTC phase ($77.59 [$38.90] vs $57.74 [$35.90]; P = .004). Out-of-pocket costs did not differ by urbanicity in the pre-OTC phase; however, mean (SD) costs were higher at suburban ($88.67 [$66.80]) and rural ($65.43 [$35.00]) pharmacies compared with urban pharmacies ($53.58 [$29.00]) in the post-OTC phase (P = .003). Conclusions and Relevance: The Food and Drug Administration's approval of OTC naloxone nasal spray contributed to an increase in pharmacy-based availability of naloxone and a reduction of its cost for cash-paying patients. Cost was higher at independent pharmacies compared with chain pharmacies and lower in urban pharmacies compared with suburban and rural pharmacies.

Spatiotemporal patterns of Lyme disease in North Carolina: 2010-2020.

Background: Lyme disease is the most common vector-borne disease in the United States with the majority of cases occurring in the Northeast, upper Midwest, and mid-Atlantic regions. While historically considered a low incidence state, North Carolina (NC) has reported an increasing number of cases over the past decade. Therefore, the aim of this study was to characterise the spatiotemporal evolution of Lyme disease in NC from 2010 to 2020. Methods: Confirmed and probable cases reported to the NC Division of Public Health without associated travel to high-transmission state were included in the analysis. The study period was divided into four sub-periods and data were aggregated by zip code of residence. The absolute change in incidence was mapped and spatial autocorrelation analyses were performed within each sub-period. Findings: We identified the largest absolute changes in incidence in zip codes located in northwestern NC along the Appalachian Mountains. The spatial distribution of cases became increasingly clustered over the study period (Moran's I of 0.012, p = 0.127 in 2010-2012 vs. 0.403, p < 0.0001 in 2019-2020). Identified clusters included 22 high-incidence zip codes in the 2019-2020 sub-period, largely overlapping with the same areas experiencing the greatest absolute changes in disease incidence. Interpretation: Lyme disease has rapidly emerged in northwestern NC with some zip codes reporting incidence rates similar to historically high incidence regions across the US Northeast, mid-Atlantic, and upper Midwest. Efforts are urgently needed to raise awareness among medical providers to prevent excess morbidity. Funding: Funding was provided by a "Creativity Hub" award from the UNC Office of the Vice Chancellor for Research. Additional support was provided by Southeastern Center of Excellence in Vector Borne Diseases (U01CK000662).

Naloxone Accessibility by Standing Order in North Carolina Community Pharmacies.

BACKGROUND: According to a standing order in North Carolina (NC), naloxone can be purchased without a provider prescription. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to examine whether same-day naloxone accessibility and cost vary by pharmacy type and rurality in NC. METHODS: A cross-sectional telephone audit of 202 NC community pharmacies stratified by pharmacy type and county of origin was conducted in March and April 2023. Trained "secret shoppers" enacted a standardized script and recorded whether naloxone was available and its cost. We examined the relationship between out-of-pocket naloxone cost, pharmacy type, and rurality. RESULTS: Naloxone could be purchased in 53% of the pharmacies contacted; 26% incorrectly noting that naloxone could be filled only with a provider prescription and 21% did not sell naloxone. Naloxone availability by standing order was statistically different by pharmacy type (chain/independent) (χ2 = 20.58, df = 4, P value < 0.001), with a higher frequency of willingness to dispense according to the standing order by chain pharmacies in comparison to independent pharmacies. The average quoted cost for naloxone nasal spray at chain pharmacies was $84.69; the cost was significantly more ($113.54; P < 0.001) at independent pharmacies. Naloxone cost did not significantly differ by pharmacy rurality (F2,136 = 2.38, P = 0.10). CONCLUSION: Approximately half of NC community pharmacies audited dispense naloxone according to the statewide standing order, limiting same-day access to this life-saving medication. Costs were higher at independent pharmacies, which could be due to store-level policies. Future studies should further investigate these cost differences, especially as intranasal naloxone transitions from a prescription only to over-the-counter product.

Spatial Clustering of Tobacco Retailers Near US Public Schools.

INTRODUCTION: Previous studies have found that tobacco retailers cluster near schools. However, all retail outlets may be located near each other and near schools due to existing infrastructure and zoning policies. We assessed whether tobacco retailers cluster near schools in the United States more than expected when accounting for existing retail locations. AIMS AND METHODS: We identified 322 056 probable tobacco retailers, 95 110 public schools, and more than 3.8 million businesses comparable to tobacco retailers in land use and business type. We created 500 simulated tobacco retailer datasets by randomly selecting from the larger list of businesses. For each simulated dataset, we calculated the distance from schools to the nearest tobacco retailer (proximity) and the count of tobacco retailers within 800 m of schools (density). Observed proximity and density values were compared to 95% coverage intervals from the 500 simulations. We stratified analyses by urbanicity, percentage of students in the free and reduced-priced lunch program (FRLP), and percentage of Hispanic/Latino, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic white students. RESULTS: Tobacco retailers were closer to schools in rural areas, cities, and towns and more dense around schools in rural areas, cities, and suburbs compared to random locations in potential retail space. Schools with more students receiving FRLP had higher density than expected while schools with fewer students receiving FRLP had lower density than expected. Within rural areas, clustering did not vary across sociodemographic groups. Within non-rural areas, there were inequities in clustering by racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic school composition. CONCLUSIONS: Tobacco retailers cluster near schools after accounting for existing business patterns. There are inequities in clustering by sociodemographic school composition. IMPLICATIONS: This study provides compelling evidence that tobacco retailers cluster near US public schools and that there are racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic inequities in clustering, even when accounting for overall retail location patterns. Given that public schools tend to reflect neighborhood demographics, policies to limit tobacco retailers near schools may reduce both school-based and neighborhood-based inequities.

Provisional Entrants, Exemptions, and Kindergarteners Up-to-Date on Vaccination Before and After a Regulatory Change in Pennsylvania, 2015-2019.

OBJECTIVES: Before the 2017-2018 school year, Pennsylvania shortened the grace period for provisional entrants-kindergarteners who are not up-to-date on vaccination and do not have medical or nonmedical exemption-from 8 months to 5 days. We analyzed the impact of this change on school-entry vaccination status. METHODS: Using data from the Pennsylvania Department of Health for school years 2015-2016 through 2018-2019, we examined state-level trends in Pennsylvania kindergarteners' vaccination status, including the percentage who were up-to-date on each required vaccine, provisionally enrolled, medically exempted from vaccination, and nonmedically exempted from vaccination. Using the Spearman correlation coefficient, we assessed associations at the school level among changes in kindergarteners' vaccination status after the grace period was shortened. RESULTS: From 2016-2017 to 2017-2018, the provisional entrance rate of kindergarteners in Pennsylvania decreased substantially after the change in the grace period (from 8.1% to 2.2%), the medical exemption rate remained stable, and the nonmedical exemption rate increased slightly (from 1.8% to 2.5%). The percentage of kindergarteners up-to-date on required vaccines increased or remained stable across the study period except for polio, which decreased from 97.9% in 2015-2016 to 96.2% in 2018-2019. The change in provisional entrance rate was negatively associated with change in kindergarteners up-to-date on required vaccines (ρ range, -0.30 to -0.70) but not with change in medical or nonmedical exemptions (ρ range, -0.01 to -0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Efforts to reduce provisional entrants may increase the percentage of kindergarteners up-to-date on vaccinations at school entry without a corresponding increase in exemptions.

Mass Probation: Effects of Sentencing Severity on Mental Health for Black and White Individuals.

BACKGROUND: Incarceration is associated with negative impacts on mental health. Probation, a form of community supervision, has been lauded as an alternative. However, the effect of probation versus incarceration on mental health is unclear. Our objective was to estimate the impact on mental health of reducing sentencing severity at individuals' first adult criminal-legal encounter. METHODS: We used the US National Longitudinal Survey on Youth 1997, a nationally representative dataset of youth followed into their mid-thirties. Restricting to those with an adult encounter (arrest, charge alone or no sentence, probation, incarceration), we used parametric g-computation to estimate the difference in mental health at age 30 (Mental Health Inventory-5) if (1) everyone who received incarceration for their first encounter had received probation and (2) everyone who received probation had received no sentence. RESULTS: Among 1835 individuals with adult encounters, 19% were non-Hispanic Black and 65% were non-Hispanic White. Median age at first encounter was 20. Under hypothetical interventions to reduce sentencing, we did not see better mental health overall (Intervention 1, incarceration to probation: RD = -0.01; CI = -0.02, 0.01; Intervention 2, probation to no sentence: RD = 0.00; CI = -0.01, 0.01) or when stratified by race. CONCLUSION: Among those with criminal-legal encounters, hypothetical interventions to reduce sentencing, including incremental sentencing reductions, were not associated with improved mental health. Future work should consider the effects of preventing individuals' first criminal-legal encounter.

Kindergarten Vaccination Status in California After Changes to Medical Exemption Policy.

This study evaluates changes in medical exemptions and geographic distribution of kindergarteners in California not up to date on vaccination after changes to state legislation.

Validating model output in the absence of ground truth data: A COVID-19 case study using the Simulator of Infectious Disease Dynamics in North Carolina (SIDD-NC) model.

As the COVID-19 pandemic has progressed, various models have been developed to forecast changes in the outbreak and assess intervention strategies. In this study we validate the Simulator of Infectious Disease Dynamics in North Carolina (SIDD-NC) model against an ensemble of proxy-ground truth infections datasets. We assess the performance of SIDD-NC using Spearman Rank Correlation, RMSE, and percent RMSE at a state and county level. We conduct the analysis for the period of March 2020 through November 2020 as well as in shorter time increments to assess both the recreation of the pandemic curve as well as day-to-day transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within the population. We find that SIDD-NC performs well against the datasets in the ensemble, generating an estimate of infections that is robust both spatially and temporally.

Spatiotemporal characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta wave in North Carolina.

We constructed county-level models to examine properties of the SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant wave of infections in North Carolina and assessed immunity levels (via prior infection, via vaccination, and overall) prior to the Delta wave. To understand how prior immunity shaped Delta wave outcomes, we assessed relationships among these characteristics. Peak weekly infection rate and total percent of the population infected during the Delta wave were negatively correlated with the proportion of people with vaccine-derived immunity prior to the Delta Wave, signaling that places with higher vaccine uptake had better outcomes. We observed a positive correlation between immunity via infection prior to Delta and percent of the population infected during the Delta wave, meaning that counties with poor pre-Delta outcomes also had poor Delta wave outcomes. Our findings illustrate geographic variation in outcomes during the Delta wave in North Carolina, highlighting regional differences in population characteristics and infection dynamics.

Students Provisionally Enrolled Due to Vaccination Requirements: Variation in State Laws and Rates.

This research examined the laws and regulations surrounding provisional enrollment in schools across the United States. Provisional enrollment refers to children who have started, but not completed, their required vaccinations and are allowed to attend school while completing their vaccinations. We found that nearly all states have laws regarding provisional enrollment, with 5 essential components to compare the laws including vaccine- and dose-specific requirements, type of personnel permitted to authorize, length of time that the children have to become up to date on their vaccinations (grace period), follow-up procedures, and consequences for noncompliance. In addition, we found that the percentage of provisionally enrolled kindergarteners varied greatly from state to state, with some states having less than 1% of provisionally enrolled kindergarteners and others having more than 8% between school years 2015-2016 and 2020-2021. We suggest that reducing the number of provisional entrants could be an alternative intervention to increase vaccination coverage.

Deep tubewell use is associated with increased household microbial contamination in rural Bangladesh: Results from a prospective cohort study among households in rural Bangladesh.

Deep tubewells are important sources of arsenic mitigation in rural Bangladesh. Compared to commonly available shallow tubewells, deep tubewells tap into deeper low-arsenic aquifers and greatly reduce exposure to arsenic in drinking-water. However, benefits from these more distant and expensive sources may be compromised by higher levels of microbial contamination at point-of-use (POU). This paper examines differences in microbial contamination levels at source and POU among households using deep tubewells and shallow tubewells, and investigates factors associated with POU microbial contamination among deep tubewell users. We assessed a prospective longitudinal cohort of 500 rural households in Matlab, Bangladesh, across 135 villages. Concentration of Escherichia coli (E. coli) in water samples at source and POU using Compartment Bag Tests (CBTs) was measured across rainy and dry seasons. We employed linear mixed-effect regression models to measure the effect of different factors on log E. coli concentrations among deep tubewell users. CBT results show that log E. coli concentrations are similar at source and at POU during the first dry and rainy season, but are significantly higher at POU among deep tubewell users during the second dry season. Log E. coli at POU among deep tubewell users is positively associated with both presence (exponentiated beta exp(b) = 2.52, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.70, 3.73) and concentration of E. coli (exp(b) = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.19, 1.54) at source, and walking time to the tubewell source (exp(b) = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.15, 1.69). Drinking-water during the second dry season is associated with reduced log E. coli (exp(b) = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.23, 0.57) compared to the rainy season. These results suggest that while households that use deep tubewells have lower arsenic exposure, they may be at higher risk of consuming microbially contaminated water compared to households that use shallow tubewells.

Mass probation: Temporal and geographic correlation of county-level probation rates & mental health in North Carolina.

High community incarceration rates are associated with worse community mental health. However, it remains unknown whether higher rates of probation, a form of criminal legal community supervision, are similarly associated with worse community mental health. Our objective was to evaluate temporal and geographic correlations of county-level probation and mental health rates separately and to assess the association between county-level probation and mental health rates, measured by self-inflicted injury and suicide. We performed ecological analyses using North Carolina administrative data (2009-2019) and used repeated cross-section, multivariable spatial error models. From 2009 to 2019, probation rates trended downward while self-inflicted injury and suicide remained stable. We found positive spatial autocorrelation suggesting that there are spatial determinants of probation and self-harm, though less so for suicide. Hot spot analyses showed local variation with high self-harm and suicide rates being clustered in rural Western North Carolina and high probation rates being clustered in rural Eastern North Carolina. Probation was positively associated with self-inflicted injury and suicide. For example, in 2018, a 1 percentage point increase in probation was associated with a 0.05 percentage point increase in self-harm in 2019 (95% CI: 0.03, 0.06), meaning that in a county of 100,000 people, an increase in 1000 county residents being on probation would be associated with an increase in 50 self-harm injuries. High county-level probation rates may exert collateral damage on the mental health of those living in areas with much of the population under state control. These findings emphasize that the criminal legal system is not separate from communities and that future public health research and advocacy must consider these collateral consequences of probation on communities.

Urban-rural differences in tobacco product availability in food retailers, United States, 2017.

PURPOSE: Tobacco use prevalence is higher in rural compared to urban settings, possibly due to differences in tobacco availability, including the option to purchase food and other essential items in stores that do not sell tobacco (tobacco-free food retailers). The goal of this research is to determine whether tobacco-free food retailer availability varies by urbanicity/rurality. METHODS: Using the 2017 National Establishment Time-Series database, we identified food retailers across all census tracts containing food retailers in the United States (n = 66,053). We used multivariable logistic and linear regression models to test whether tobacco-free food retailer availability varied across 4-levels of census tract urbanicity/rurality (urban, suburban, large town, and small town/rural) for 2 outcomes: (1) the presence of at least 1 tobacco-free food retailer and (2) the percent of all food retailers that were tobacco-free. FINDINGS: Compared to urban core census tracts, suburban census tracts had a lower odds (aOR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.73, 0.81) of having at least 1 tobacco-free food retailer, while small town/rural census tracts had greater odds (aOR = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.15, 1.32). Suburban census tracts (B = -2.29, P < .001) and large town census tracts (B = -1.90, P < .001) also had a lower percentage of tobacco-free food retailers compared to urban census tracts. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to urban cores, tobacco-free food retailers were less prevalent in suburban and large town areas, though similarly or slightly more available in rural areas. Future research should assess whether these differences depend on varying store types.

Characterization of parental intention to vaccinate elementary school aged children in the state of California.

In October 2021, Emergency Use Authorization of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines was granted for children aged 5-11. To ensure vaccine uptake in children upon approval, California will implement a state-wide executive order mandating COVID-19 vaccination for school children following full US FDA approval. This study uses survey data collected between November 6th, 2020 and December 14th, 2020 (n = 2091) to identify how sociodemographic characteristics and attitudes towards childhood vaccines among California parents were associated with their intentions to vaccinate their child against COVID-19. About one quarter (26 %) of surveyed California parents did not intend to vaccinate their child, suggesting skepticism towards the COVID-19 vaccine for children and the potential for pushback to a COVID-19 vaccine school-entry mandate. However, 17 % were unsure of their decision, suggesting the potential for public health messaging to make a positive impact on COVID-19 vaccine confidence and uptake. This study identifies characteristics of hesitant parents in California to prioritize for research and outreach. These data also provide a baseline for parental attitudes towards vaccinating children against COVID-19 in California, which will be useful for characterizing changes in attitudes towards childhood COVID-19 vaccination over time.

NC-COVID: A Time-Varying Compartmental Model for Estimating SARS-CoV-2 Infection Dynamics in North Carolina, US.

Efforts to track and model SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in the population have been complicated by certain aspects of the transmission characteristics, which include a pre-symptomatic infectious phase as well as asymptomatic infectious individuals. Another problem is that many models focus on case count, as there has been (and is) limited data regarding infection status of members of the population, which is the most important aspect for constructing transmission models. This paper describes and explains the parameterization, calibration, and revision of the NC-COVID model, a compartmental model to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics for the state of North Carolina, US. The model was developed early in the pandemic to provide rapid, up-to-date state-level estimates of the number of people who were currently infected, were immune from a prior infection, and remained susceptible to infection. As a post modeling exercise, we assessed the veracity of the model by comparing its output to SARS-CoV-2 viral particle concentrations detected in wastewater data and to estimates of people infected using COVID-19 deaths. The NC-COVID model was highly correlated with these independently derived estimates, suggesting that it produced accurate estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection dynamics in North Carolina.