Characteristics and outcome of anti-hepatitis D virus positive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Chronic hepatitis D virus (HDV) often leads to end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Comprehensive data pertaining to large populations with HDV and HCC are missing, therefore we sought to assess the characteristics, management, and outcome of these patients, comparing them to patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. METHODS: We analysed the Italian Liver Cancer database focusing on patients with positivity for HBV surface antigen and anti-HDV antibodies (HBV/HDV, n = 107) and patients with HBV infection alone (n = 588). Clinical and oncological characteristics, treatment, and survival were compared in the two groups. RESULTS: Patients with HBV/HDV had worse liver function [Model for End-stage Liver Disease score: 11 vs. 9, p < .0001; Child-Turcotte-Pugh score: 7 vs. 5, p < .0001] than patients with HBV. HCC was more frequently diagnosed during surveillance (72.9% vs. 52.4%, p = .0002), and the oncological stage was more frequently Milan-in (67.3% vs. 52.7%, p = .005) in patients with HBV/HDV. Liver transplantation was more frequently performed in HBV/HDV than in HBV patients (36.4% vs. 9.5%), while the opposite was observed for resection (8.4% vs. 20.1%, p < .0001), and in a competing risk analysis, HBV/HDV patients had a higher probability of receiving transplantation, independently of liver function and oncological stage. A trend towards longer survival was observed in patients with HBV/HDV (50.4 vs. 44.4 months, p = .106). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with HBV/HDV, HCC is diagnosed more frequently during surveillance, resulting in a less advanced cancer stage in patients with more deranged liver function than HBV alone. Patients with HBV/HDV have a heightened benefit from liver transplantation, positively influencing survival.

Sorafenib and Metronomic Capecitabine in Child-Pugh B patients with advanced HCC: A real-life comparison with best supportive care.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The efficacy of systemic therapy for unresectable advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC) has not been proven in patients with Child-Pugh (C-P) B cirrhosis. Nevertheless, in real-world these patients are treated both with tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) and with metronomic capecitabine (MC). This study aimed to compare sorafenib and MC outcomes versus best supportive care (BSC) in C-P B patients. METHOD: Between 2008 and 2020, among 774 C-P B patients with aHCC not amenable/responsive to locoregional treatments, 410 underwent sorafenib, 62 MC, and 302 BSC. The propensity score matching method was used to correct the baseline unbalanced prognostic factors. RESULTS: In the unmatched population, median OS was 9.7 months in patients treated with sorafenib, 8.0 with MC, and 3.9 months with BSC. In sorafenib vs. BSC-matched patients (135 couples), median OS was 7.3 (4.9-9.6) vs. 3.9 (2.6-5.2) months (p<0.001). ECOG-Performance Status, tumor size, macrovascular invasion, AFP, treatment-naive, and sorafenib were independent predictors of survival. In MC vs. BSC-matched patients (40 couples), median OS was 9.0 (0.2-17.8) vs.3.0 (2.2-3.8) months (p<0.001). Median OS did not differ (p = 0.283) in sorafenib vs. MC-matched patients (55 couples). CONCLUSION: C-P B patients with aHCC undergoing BSC have poor survival. Both Sorafenib and MC treatment improve their prognosis.

Landscape of alcohol-related hepatocellular carcinoma in the last 15 years highlights the need to expand surveillance programs.

Background & Aims: Alcohol abuse and metabolic disorders are leading causes of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide. Alcohol-related aetiology is associated with a worse prognosis compared with viral agents, because of the lower percentage of patients diagnosed with HCC under routine surveillance and a higher burden of comorbidity in alcohol abusers. This study aimed to describe the evolving clinical scenario of alcohol-related HCC over 15 years (2006-2020) in Italy. Methods: Data from the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) registry were used: 1,391 patients were allocated to three groups based on the year of HCC diagnosis (2006-2010; 2011-2015; 2016-2020). Patient characteristics, HCC treatment, and overall survival were compared among groups. Survival predictors were also investigated. Results: Approximately 80% of alcohol-related HCCs were classified as cases of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease. Throughout the quinquennia, <50% of HCCs were detected by surveillance programmes. The tumour burden at diagnosis was slightly reduced but not enough to change the distribution of the ITA.LI.CA cancer stages. Intra-arterial and targeted systemic therapies increased across quinquennia. A modest improvement in survival was observed in the last quinquennia, particularly after 12 months of patient observation. Cancer stage, HCC treatment, and presence of oesophageal varices were independent predictors of survival. Conclusions: In the past 15 years, modest improvements have been obtained in outcomes of alcohol-related HCC, attributed mainly to underuse of surveillance programmes and the consequent low amenability to curative treatments. Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease is a widespread condition in alcohol abusers, but its presence did not show a pivotal prognostic role once HCC had developed. Instead, the presence of oesophageal varices, an independent poor prognosticator, should be considered in patient management and refining of prognostic systems. Impact and Implications: Alcohol abuse is a leading and growing cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) worldwide and is associated with a worse prognosis compared with other aetiologies. We assessed the evolutionary landscape of alcohol-related HCC over 15 years in Italy. A high cumulative prevalence (78%) of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease, with signs of metabolic dysfunction, was observed in HCC patients with unhealthy excessive alcohol consumption. The alcohol + metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease condition tended to progressively increase over time. A modest improvement in survival occurred over the study period, likely because of the persistent underuse of surveillance programmes and, consequently, the lack of improvement in the cancer stage at diagnosis and the patients' eligibility for curative treatments. Alongside the known prognostic factors for HCC (cancer stage and treatment), the presence of oesophageal varices was an independent predictor of poor survival, suggesting that this clinical feature should be carefully considered in patient management and should be included in prognostic systems/scores for HCC to improve their performance.

Epidemiological trends and trajectories of MAFLD-associated hepatocellular carcinoma 2002-2033: the ITA.LI.CA database.

BACKGROUND: Metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) represents a new inclusive definition of the whole spectrum of liver diseases associated to metabolic disorders. The main objective of this study was to compare patients with MAFLD and non-MAFLD with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) included in a nationally representative cohort. METHODS: We analysed 6882 consecutive patients with HCC enrolled from 2002 to 2019 by 23 Italian Liver Cancer centres to compare epidemiological and future trends in three subgroups: pure, single aetiology MAFLD (S-MAFLD); mixed aetiology MAFLD (metabolic and others, M-MAFLD); and non-MAFLD HCC. RESULTS: MAFLD was diagnosed in the majority of patients with HCC (68.4%). The proportion of both total MAFLD and S-MAFLD HCC significantly increased over time (from 50.4% and 3.6% in 2002-2003, to 77.3% and 28.9% in 2018-2019, respectively, p<0.001). In Italy S-MAFLD HCC is expected to overcome M-MAFLD HCC in about 6 years. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC were older, more frequently men and less frequently cirrhotic with clinically relevant portal hypertension and a surveillance-related diagnosis. They had more frequently large tumours and extrahepatic metastases. After weighting, and compared with patients with non-MAFLD, S-MAFLD and M-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly lower overall (p=0.026, p=0.004) and HCC-related (p<0.001, for both) risk of death. Patients with S-MAFLD HCC showed a significantly higher risk of non-HCC-related death (p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of MAFLD HCC in Italy is rapidly increasing to cover the majority of patients with HCC. Despite a less favourable cancer stage at diagnosis, patients with MAFLD HCC have a lower risk of HCC-related death, suggesting reduced cancer aggressiveness.

Potential feasibility of atezolizumab-bevacizumab therapy in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma treated with tyrosine-kinase inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: The combination of atezolizumab-bevacizumab has been proven to be superior to sorafenib for the treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma not amenable to locoregional treatments, becoming the standard of care of systemic therapy. AIM: This study aimed at assessing real-world feasibility of atezolizumab-bevacizumab in patients treated with tyrosine-kinase inhibitors. METHODS: Among 1447 patients treated with tyrosine-kinase inhibitors from January 2010 to December 2020, we assessed the percentage of those potentially eligible to atezolizumab-bevacizumab (according to IMbrave-150 trial criteria), and the overall survival of eligible and non-eligible patients. RESULTS: 422 (29%) patients were qualified for atezolizumab-bevacizumab therapy. The main exclusion causes were Child-Pugh class and Performance Status. Adopting the more permissive inclusion criteria of SHARP trial, 535 patients became eligible. The median overall survival of tyrosine-kinase inhibitors patients was 14.9 months, longer in eligible patients than in their counterpart due to better baseline liver function and oncological features. CONCLUSION: Real-world data indicate that less than one-third of hepatocellular carcinoma patients treated with tyrosine-kinase inhibitors are potentially eligible to atezolizumab-bevacizumab according to the registration trial criteria. These patients have a longer survival than the non-eligible ones. If the selection criteria of atezolizumab-bevacizumab trial are maintained in clinical practice, tyrosine-kinase inhibitors will remain the most used systemic therapy for hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

A Nomogram-Based Prognostic Model for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Treated with Sorafenib: A Multicenter Study.

Among scores and staging systems used for HCC, none showed a good prognostic ability in patients with advanced HCC treated with Sorafenib. We aimed to evaluate predictive factors of overall survival (OS) and drug response in HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort. Patients in the ITA.LI.CA database treated with Sorafenib and updated on 30 June 2019 were included. Demographic and clinical data before starting Sorafenib treatment were considered. For the evaluation of predictive factors for OS, a time-dependent Cox proportional hazard model was used. A total of 1107 patients were included in our analysis. The mean age was 64.3 years and 81.7% were male. Most patients were staged as BCLC B (205, 18.9%) or C (706, 65.1%). The median time of Sorafenib administration was 4 months (interquartile range (IQR) 2-12), and the median OS was 10 months (IQR: 4-20). A total of 263 patients (33.8%) out of 780 with available evaluation experienced objective tumoral response to Sorafenib. The Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status (PS) (hazard ratio (HR) 1.284), maximum tumoral diameter (HR 1.100), plasma total bilirubin (HR 1.119), aspartate amino transferase assessed as multiple of the upper normal value (HR 1.032), alpha-fetoprotein ≥200 ng/mL (HR 1.342), hemoglobin (HR 0.903) and platelet count (HR 1.002) were associated with OS at multivariate Cox regression analysis. Drug response was predicted by maximum tumoral diameter and platelet count. A novel prognostic nomogram for patients undergoing Sorafenib is hereby proposed. The novelty introduced is the comprehensive patient's assessment using common markers of patient's general status, liver damage and function and HCC biology. Further studies are required to test its accuracy and provide external validation.

Comparison of prognostic models in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing Sorafenib: A multicenter study.

BACKGROUND: Sorafenib is the gold standard therapy for the advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). No scoring/staging is universally accepted to predict the survival of these patients. AIMS: To evaluate the accuracy of the available prognostic models for HCC to predict the survival of advanced HCC patients treated with Sorafenib included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA.) multicenter cohort. METHODS: The performance of several prognostic scores was assessed through a Cox regression-model evaluating the C-index and the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). RESULTS: Data of 1129 patients were analyzed. The mean age of patients was 61.6 years, and 80.8% were male. During a median follow-up period of 13 months, 789 patients died. The median period of Sorafenib administration was 4 months. All the prognostic scores were able to predict the overall survival (p<0.001) at univariate analysis, except the Albumin-Bilirubin score. The Italian Liver Cancer score (CLIP) yielded the highest accuracy (C-index 0.604, AIC 9898), followed by the ITA.LI.CA. prognostic score (C-index 0.599, AIC 9915). CONCLUSIONS: The CLIP score had the highest accuracy in predicting the overall survival of HCC patients treated with Sorafenib, although its performance remained poor. Further studies are needed to refine the current ability to predict the outcome of HCC patients undergoing Sorafenib.

Renal safety in 3264 HCV patients treated with DAA-based regimens: Results from a large Italian real-life study.

BACKGROUND: Sofosbuvir (SOF)-based regimens have been associated with renal function worsening in HCV patients with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≤ 45 ml/min, but further investigations are lacking. AIM: To assess renal safety in a large cohort of DAA-treated HCV patients with any chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: All HCV patients treated with DAA in Lombardy (December 2014-November 2017) with available kidney function tests during and off-treatment were included. RESULTS: Among 3264 patients [65% males, 67% cirrhotics, eGFR 88 (9-264) ml/min], CKD stage was 3 in 9.5% and 4/5 in 0.7%. 79% and 73% patients received SOF and RBV, respectively. During DAA, eGFR declined in CKD-1 (p < 0.0001) and CKD-2 (p = 0.0002) patients, with corresponding rates of CKD stage reduction of 25% and 8%. Conversely, eGFR improved in lower CKD stages (p < 0.0001 in CKD-3a, p = 0.0007 in CKD-3b, p = 0.024 in CKD-4/5), with 33-45% rates of CKD improvement. Changes in eGFR and CKD distribution persisted at SVR. Baseline independent predictors of CKD worsening at EOT and SVR were age (p < 0.0001), higher baseline CKD stages (p < 0.0001) and AH (p = 0.010 and p < 0.0001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: During DAA, eGFR significantly declined in patients with preserved renal function and improved in those with lower CKD stages, without reverting upon drug discontinuation.

Development and Validation of a New Prognostic System for Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Prognostic assessment in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. Using the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database as a training set, we sought to develop and validate a new prognostic system for patients with HCC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Prospective collected databases from Italy (training cohort, n = 3,628; internal validation cohort, n = 1,555) and Taiwan (external validation cohort, n = 2,651) were used to develop the ITA.LI.CA prognostic system. We first defined ITA.LI.CA stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, C) using only tumor characteristics (largest tumor diameter, number of nodules, intra- and extrahepatic macroscopic vascular invasion, extrahepatic metastases). A parametric multivariable survival model was then used to calculate the relative prognostic value of ITA.LI.CA tumor stage, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, Child-Pugh score (CPS), and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in predicting individual survival. Based on the model results, an ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score (from 0 to 13 points) was constructed, and its prognostic power compared with that of other integrated systems (BCLC, HKLC, MESIAH, CLIP, JIS). Median follow-up was 58 mo for Italian patients (interquartile range, 26-106 mo) and 39 mo for Taiwanese patients (interquartile range, 12-61 mo). The ITA.LI.CA integrated prognostic score showed optimal discrimination and calibration abilities in Italian patients. Observed median survival in the training and internal validation sets was 57 and 61 mo, respectively, in quartile 1 (ITA.LI.CA score ≤ 1), 43 and 38 mo in quartile 2 (ITA.LI.CA score 2-3), 23 and 23 mo in quartile 3 (ITA.LI.CA score 4-5), and 9 and 8 mo in quartile 4 (ITA.LI.CA score > 5). Observed and predicted median survival in the training and internal validation sets largely coincided. Although observed and predicted survival estimations were significantly lower (log-rank test, p < 0.001) in Italian than in Taiwanese patients, the ITA.LI.CA score maintained very high discrimination and calibration features also in the external validation cohort. The concordance index (C index) of the ITA.LI.CA score in the internal and external validation cohorts was 0.71 and 0.78, respectively. The ITA.LI.CA score's prognostic ability was significantly better (p < 0.001) than that of BCLC stage (respective C indexes of 0.64 and 0.73), CLIP score (0.68 and 0.75), JIS stage (0.67 and 0.70), MESIAH score (0.69 and 0.77), and HKLC stage (0.68 and 0.75). The main limitations of this study are its retrospective nature and the intrinsically significant differences between the Taiwanese and Italian groups. CONCLUSIONS: The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system includes both a tumor staging-stratifying patients with HCC into six main stages (0, A, B1, B2, B3, and C)-and a prognostic score-integrating ITA.LI.CA tumor staging, CPS, ECOG performance status, and AFP. The ITA.LI.CA prognostic system shows a strong ability to predict individual survival in European and Asian populations.

Utility-based criteria for selecting patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation: A multicenter cohort study using the alpha-fetoprotein model as a survival predictor.

The lifetime utility of liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is still controversial. The aim of this study was to ascertain when LT is cost-effective for HCC patients, with a view to proposing new transplant selection criteria. The study involved a real cohort of potentially transplantable Italian HCC patients (n = 2419 selected from the Italian Liver Cancer group database) who received nontransplant therapies. A non-LT survival analysis was conducted, the direct costs of therapies were calculated, and a Markov model was used to compute the cost utility of LT over non-LT therapies in Italian and US cost scenarios. Post-LT survival was calculated using the alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model on the basis of AFP values and radiological size and number of nodules. The primary endpoint was the net health benefit (NHB), defined as LT survival benefit in quality-adjusted life years minus incremental costs (US $)/willingness to pay. The calculated median cost of non-LT therapies per patient was US $53,042 in Italy and US $62,827 in the United States. On Monte Carlo simulation, the NHB of LT was always positive for AFP model values ≤ 3 and always negative for values > 7 in both countries. A multivariate model showed that nontumor variables (patient's age, Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] class, and alternative therapies) had the potential to shift the AFP model threshold of LT cost-ineffectiveness from 3 to 7. LT proved always cost-effective for HCC patients with AFP model values ≤ 3, whereas the cost-ineffectiveness threshold ranged between 3 and 7 using nontumor variables.

Prognosis of untreated hepatocellular carcinoma.

UNLABELLED: The prognosis of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is heterogeneous, and survival data were mainly obtained from control arms of randomized studies. Clinical practice data on this topic are urgently needed, so as to help plan studies and counsel patients. We assessed the prognosis of 600 untreated patients with HCC managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group. Prognosis was evaluated by subdividing patients according to the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) classification. We also assessed the main demographic, clinical, and oncological determinants of survival in the subgroup of patients with advanced HCC (BCLC C). Advanced (BCLC C: n = 138; 23.0%) and end-stage HCC (BCLC D; n = 210; 35.0%) represented the majority of patients. Overall median survival was 9 months, and the principal cause of death was tumor progression (n = 279; 46.5%). Patients' median survival progressively and significantly decreased as BCLC stage worsened (BCLC 0: 38 months; BCLC A: 25 months; BCLC B: 10 months; BCLC C: 7 months; BCLC D: 6 months; P < 0.0001). Female gender (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.33-0.90; P = 0.018), ascites (HR = 1.81; 95% CI = 1.21-2.71; P = 0.004), and multinodular (>3) HCC (HR = 1.79; 95% CI = 1.21-2.63; P = 0.003) were independent predictors of survival in patients with advanced HCC (BCLC C). CONCLUSION: BCLC adequately predicts the prognosis of untreated HCC patients. In untreated patients with advanced HCC, female gender, clinical decompensation of cirrhosis, and multinodular tumor are independent prognostic predictors and should be taken into account for patient stratification in future therapeutic studies.

Survival benefit of liver resection for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma across different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages: a multicentre study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The role of hepatic resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in different Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stages is controversial. We aimed at measuring the survival benefit of resection vs. non-surgical-therapies in each BCLC stage. METHODS: Using the ITA.LI.CA database, we identified 2090 BCLC A, B, and C HCC patients observed between 2000 and 2012: 550 underwent resection, 1046 loco-regional therapy (LRT), and 494 best supportive care (BSC). A multivariate log-logistic model was chosen to predict median survival (MS) after resection vs. MS after LRT or BSC. The results were expressed as net survival benefit of resection: (MS resection-MS LRT)/MS BSC. RESULTS: After stratifying for BCLC stage, the median net survival benefit of resection over LRT was: BCLC 0=62% (40%, 82%), A=45% (13%, 65%), B=46% (9%, 76%), C=-16% (-55%, 33%). Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score>9, Child B class, and performance status (PST)=2 were the main risk factors for liver resection. 1181 Child A patients (57%) with MELD⩽9 and PST<2 had always a large positive net survival benefit of resection over LRT, independently of BCLC stage: BCLC 0=64% (44%, 85%), A=59% (45%, 74%), B=71% (52%, 90%), C=56% (36%, 78%). Among the 909 (43%) patients with at least one risk factor (MELD>9 or PST=2 or Child B class), resection did not prove any survival benefit over LRT. CONCLUSIONS: Resection could result in survival benefit over LRT for HCC patients regardless of their BCLC stage, provided that liver dysfunction (Child B or MELD>9) and PST>1 are absent.

Determinants of alpha-fetoprotein levels in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: implications for its clinical use.

BACKGROUND: α-Fetoprotein (AFP) is a biomarker commonly used in the management of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), although the possible determinants of its serum levels in these patients have not been adequately explored. For this study, the authors evaluated the relevance of demographic, clinical, and oncologic factors to the presence of elevated AFP levels in large cohort of patients with HCC. METHODS: In 4123 patients with HCC who were managed by the Italian Liver Cancer Group, AFP levels were assessed along with their association with demographic, biochemical, clinical, and oncologic characteristics. Patients were subdivided according to the presence of elevated AFP (ie, >10 ng/mL). RESULTS: AFP levels were elevated in 62.4% of patients with HCC. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that being a woman (odds ratio [OR], 1.497; 95% confidence interval [95%CI], 1.250-1.793; P < .0001), the presence of cirrhosis (OR, 1.538; 95% CI, 1.050-2.254; P = .027), liver disease with viral etiology (OR, 1.900; 95% CI, 1.589-2.272; P < .0001), an elevated alanine aminotransferase level (OR, 1.878; 95% CI, 1.602-2.202; P < .0001), a low albumin level (OR, 1.301; 95% CI, 1.110-1.525; P = .012), an HCC tumor size >2 cm (OR, 1.346; 95% CI, 1.135-2.596; P = .001), multinodular HCC (OR, 1.641; 95% CI, 1.403-1.920; P < .0001), and the presence of vascular invasion (OR, 1.774; 95% CI, 1.361-2.311; P < .0001) were associated independently with elevated levels of AFP. Both the median AFP level and the proportion of patients who had elevated levels increased with decreasing degrees of HCC differentiation (P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: Sex and features of chronic liver disease were identified as nontumor characteristics that influence serum AFP levels in patients with HCC. These findings should be taken into account as limitations in interpreting the oncologic meaning of this biomarker in clinical practice.

Estimation of lead-time bias and its impact on the outcome of surveillance for the early diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Lead-time is the time by which diagnosis is anticipated by screening/surveillance with respect to the symptomatic detection of a disease. Any screening program, including surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), is subject to lead-time bias. Data regarding lead-time for HCC are lacking. Aims of the present study were to calculate lead-time and to assess its impact on the benefit obtainable from the surveillance of cirrhotic patients. METHODS: One-thousand three-hundred and eighty Child-Pugh class A/B patients from the ITA.LI.CA database, in whom HCC was detected during semiannual surveillance (n = 850), annual surveillance (n = 234) or when patients came when symptomatic (n = 296), were selected. Lead-time was estimated by means of appropriate formulas and Monte Carlo simulation, including 1000 patients for each arm. RESULTS: The 5-year overall survival after HCC diagnosis was 32.7% in semiannually surveilled patients, 25.2% in annually surveilled patients, and 12.2% in symptomatic patients (p<0.001). In a 10-year follow-up perspective, the median lead-time calculated for all surveilled patients was 6.5 months (7.2 for semiannual and 4.1 for annual surveillance). Lead-time bias accounted for most of the surveillance benefit until the third year of follow-up after HCC diagnosis. However, even after lead-time adjustment, semiannual surveillance maintained a survival benefit over symptomatic diagnosis (number of patients needed to screen = 13), as did annual surveillance (18 patients). CONCLUSIONS: Lead-time bias is the main determinant of the short-term benefit provided by surveillance for HCC, but this benefit becomes factual in a long-term perspective, confirming the clinical utility of an anticipated diagnosis of HCC.

Factors that affect efficacy of ultrasound surveillance for early stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with cirrhosis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Ultrasound surveillance does not detect early stage hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) in some patients with cirrhosis, although the reasons for this have not been well studied. We assessed the rate at which ultrasound fails to detect early stage HCCs and factors that affect its performance. METHODS: We collected information on 1170 consecutive patients included in the Italian Liver Cancer (ITA.LI.CA) database who had Child-Pugh A or B cirrhosis and were diagnosed with HCC during semiannual or annual ultrasound surveillance, from January 1987 through December 2008. Etiologies included hepatitis C virus infection (59.3%), alcohol abuse (11.3%), hepatitis B virus infection (9%), a combination of factors (15.6%), and other factors (4.7%). Surveillance was considered to be a failure when patients were diagnosed with HCC at a stage beyond the Milan criteria (1 nodule ≤5 cm or ≤3 nodules each ≤3 cm). RESULTS: HCC was found beyond Milan criteria in 34.3% of surveilled patients (32.2% during semi-annual surveillance and 41.3% during annual surveillance; P < .01). Nearly half of surveillance failures were associated with at least one indicator of aggressive HCC (levels of AFP >1000 ng/mL, infiltrating tumors, or vascular invasion and metastases). Semiannual surveillance, female sex, Child-Pugh class A, and α-fetoprotein levels of 200 ng/mL or less were associated independently with successful ultrasound screening for HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Based on our analysis of surveillance for HCC in patients with cirrhosis, the efficacy of ultrasound-based screening is acceptable. Ultrasound was least effective in identifying aggressive HCC, and at surveillance intervals of more than 6 months.