Using Data on Survival with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis to Estimate Survival with Other Types of Progressive Fibrosis Interstitial Lung Disease: A Bayesian Framework.

INTRODUCTION: Among the various types of progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (PF-ILDs), substantial survival data exist for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) but not for other types. This hinders evidence-based decisions about treatment and management, as well as the economic modelling needed to justify research into new treatments and reimbursement approvals. Given the clinical similarities between IPF and other PF-ILDs, we reasoned that patient survival data from four major IPF trials could be used to estimate long-term survival in other PF-ILDs. METHODS: We used propensity score matching to match patients with IPF taking either nintedanib or placebo in the TOMORROW, INPULSIS-1, INPULSIS-2 and INPULSIS-ON trials to patients with PF-ILDs other than IPF in the INBUILD trial. Seven models were fitted to the survival data for the matched patients with IPF, and the three best-fitting models were used to generate informative priors in a Bayesian framework to extrapolate patient survival of the INBUILD population. RESULTS: After propensity score matching, the analysis included data from 1099 patients with IPF (640 nintedanib patients; 459 placebo patients) and 654 patients with other PF-ILDs (326 nintedanib patients; 328 placebo patients). Gamma, log-logistic and Weibull models best fit the survival of the matched patients with IPF. All three models led to consistent Bayesian estimates of survival for the matched patients with other PF-ILDs, with median rates of overall survival ranging from 6.34 to 6.50 years after starting nintedanib. The corresponding control group survival estimates were 3.42 to 3.76 years. CONCLUSION: We provide the first estimates of long-term overall survival for patients with PF-ILDs other than IPF, and our analysis suggests that nintedanib may prolong their survival. Our Bayesian approach to estimating survival of one disease based on clinical trial data from a similar disease may help inform economic modelling of rare, orphan and newly defined disorders.

The Challenges of Outcomes-Based Contract Implementation for Medicines in Europe.

OBJECTIVES: The aim was to outline the challenges of implementing outcomes-based contracts (OBCs) in Europe. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted, building on the searches of a previous systematic review and updating them for December 2017 until May 2021. The combined results were screened, based on inclusion and exclusion criteria. All identified studies published in the English language that described specific OBC schemes for medicines in European countries were included. Insights into the challenges of OBCs were extracted and analysed to develop a conceptual framework. RESULTS: Ten articles from the previous systematic review matched our inclusion criteria, along with 14 articles from electronic searches. Analysis of these 24 articles and classification of the challenges revealed that there are multiple barriers that must be overcome if OBCs that benefit all stakeholders are going to be adopted widely across Europe. These challenges were grouped according to five key themes: negotiation framework; outcomes; data; administration and implementation; and laws and regulation. CONCLUSIONS: If the promise of OBCs is to be fully realised in Europe, there remain major challenges that need to be overcome by all stakeholders working in partnership. The overlapping and interconnected nature of these challenges highlights the complexity of OBC arrangements.

Tofacitinib for the treatment of moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis: a systematic review, network meta-analysis and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: In the UK, treatments for patients with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis who have an inadequate response to conventional therapies comprise four biological therapies-the tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) agents adalimumab, golimumab and infliximab and the anti-integrin vedolizumab-and an orally administered small molecule therapy, tofacitinib. However, there have been few head-to-head studies of these therapies. This study aimed to compare the clinical and cost-effectiveness of tofacitinib with biological therapies. METHODS: A systematic literature review was conducted to identify all relevant randomised controlled trial (RCT) evidence. Clinical response, clinical remission and serious infection rates were synthesised using network meta-analysis (NMA). The results were used to compare the cost-effectiveness of tofacitinib and biologics with conventional therapy, using a Markov model, which incorporated lifetime costs and consequences of treatment from a UK National Health Service perspective. Analyses were conducted separately for TNFi-naïve and TNFi-exposed populations. RESULTS: Seventeen RCTs were used in the NMAs. There were no statistically significant differences among biological therapies and tofacitinib for either TNFi-naïve or TNFi-exposed patients. In TNFi-naïve patients, all therapies were more efficacious than placebo. In TNFi-exposed patients, only tofacitinib was significantly more efficacious than placebo as induction therapy, and only tofacitinib and vedolizumab were significantly more efficacious than placebo as maintenance therapies. There were no significant differences in serious infection rates among therapies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for tofacitinib versus conventional therapy were £21 338 and £22 816 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in the TNFi-naïve and TNFi-exposed populations, respectively. TNFi therapies were dominated or extendedly dominated in both populations. Compared with vedolizumab, tofacitinib was associated with a similar number of QALYs, at a lower cost. CONCLUSION: Tofacitinib is an efficacious treatment for moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis and is likely to be a cost-effective use of NHS resources.

Influence of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Progression on Healthcare Resource Use.

BACKGROUND: Disease progression and acute exacerbations in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) are associated with high morbidity and mortality. They usually require a visit to a specialist or a general practitioner (GP) in less severe cases or hospitalisation in more severe cases. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to identify factors that influence resource use in IPF. METHODS: Clinical and healthcare resource use data were collected in two large, international, multi-centre, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that studied nintedanib for the treatment of IPF (INPULSIS-1 and -2). The pooled data of nintedanib and placebo included 1014 patients followed for 12 months. The trial data were analysed in 3-month intervals. We studied two dependent variables: the occurrence of all-cause hospitalisation and visits to a physician (GP or specialist). The independent variables included the change in forced vital capacity percent predicted (FVC%pred), investigator-reported acute exacerbation events, age, time since diagnosis, smoking status, and sex. RESULTS: Hospitalisation during a 3-month interval was significantly associated with a drop of at least 5 or 10 points in FVC%pred (odds ratios [ORs] 1.58 [p = 0.009] and 2.62 [p < 0.001]) and associated with the occurrence of at least one acute exacerbation (OR 14.44; p < 0.001) during the same interval. The above factors remained significant when repeating the analysis for hospitalisation based on change in FVC%pred or events occurring during the previous 3 months interval. Smoker status and a unit change in FVC%pred during the previous interval were added to the significant factors. Physician visits during a 3-month interval were significantly associated with a lower FVC%pred at the start of the interval (per 10-point decrement, OR 1.05; p = 0.040) and with the change in FVC%pred during the same interval (per 10-point loss, OR 1.13; p = 0.042). Visits were also associated with a 5-point drop in FVC%pred (OR 1.23; p = 0.020), age (per 5-year increments OR 1.07; p = 0.028), and female sex (OR 1.32; p = 0.017). Nevertheless, the predictive power of the models was considered poor for both outcomes (hospitalisation and physician visits). CONCLUSIONS: Disease progression and acute exacerbation events are significantly associated with hospitalisation of patients with IPF. Outpatient visits to physicians are associated with disease progression, baseline FVC%pred, age and sex.

Vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) therapy in patients with treatment resistant depression: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Vagus nerve stimulation (VNS) therapy is approved for treatment-resistant depression (TRD). A recent 5-year comparative study prompted this review of its impact in this very severe population. Previous systematic literature reviews (SLR) cited concerns in terms of missing studies or patient duplication. METHODS: This SLR addressed these criticisms, assessed all outcomes of longer-term adjunctive VNS in all studies, irrespective of TRD severity, comparing where feasible with treatment-as-usual (TAU). We searched for adult VNS+TAU studies (January 1, 2000 to June 24, 2019). Comparative and single-arm studies were eligible. All reported efficacy, safety and quality of life (QOL) outcomes were assessed. Where possible, meta-analysis was used to calculate overall pooled effect estimates across studies at several time points. RESULTS: Of 22 identified studies, there were two randomized controlled (RCT), sixteen single-arm and four non-randomized comparative studies. Numerous depression-specific, safety and QOL measures were reported. Meta-analysis was possible for three efficacy [Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale, Clinician Global Impression-Improvement, Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression] and three safety [serious adverse events, study drop-outs and all-cause mortality] but no QOL measures. Data beyond 2 years was not poolable. Analyses demonstrated that antidepressant benefits improved to 24 months and safety issues were minimal. Heterogeneity was high and statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Despite limitations in the evidence base, our comprehensive summary of VNS+TAU outcomes suggests that this treatment provides improving benefit and hope for this very hard-to-treat chronic population. More comparative TRD studies should describe safety and QOL.

The Burden of Illness of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Comprehensive Evidence Review.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a debilitating condition with significant morbidity and poor survival. Since 2010, there has been increased activity in the development of treatments that aim to delay progression of the disease. OBJECTIVE: Our study involves a comprehensive review of the literature for evidence on health-related quality of life (HRQoL), healthcare resource use (HCRU) and costs, and an assessment of the burden of illness of the condition. METHODS: We carried out a systematic literature review (SLR) to identify economic evaluations and HRQoL studies. We searched EMBASE, MEDLINE and MEDLINE In Process for relevant studies from database origins to April 2017. Alongside the presentation of the study characteristics and the available evidence, we carried out a qualitative comparison using reference population estimates for HRQoL and national health expenditure for costs. RESULTS: Our search identified a total of 3241 records. After removing duplicates and not relevant articles, we analysed 124 publications referring to 88 studies published between 2000 and 2017. Sixty studies were HRQoL and 28 were studies on costs or HCRU. We observed an exponential growth of publications in the last 3-5 years, with the majority of the studies conducted in Europe and North America. Among the HRQoL studies, and despite regional differences, there was some agreement between estimates on the absolute and relative level of HRQoL for patients with IPF compared with the general population. Regarding costs, after adjustments for the cost years and currency, the suggested annual per capita cost of patients with IPF in North America was estimated around US$20,000, 2.5-3.5 times higher than the national healthcare expenditure. Additionally, studies that analysed patients with IPF alongside a matched control cohort suggested a significant increase in resource use and cost. CONCLUSION: The reviewed evidence indicates that IPF has considerable impact on HRQoL, relative to the general population levels. Furthermore, in studies of cost and resource use, most estimates of the burden were consistent in suggesting an excess cost for patients with IPF compared with a control cohort or the national health expenditure. This confirms IPF as a growing threat for public health worldwide, with considerable impact to the patients and healthcare providers.

Cost-effectiveness of an insertable cardiac monitor to detect atrial fibrillation in patients with cryptogenic stroke.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Documentation of atrial fibrillation is required to initiate oral anticoagulation therapy for recurrent stroke prevention. Atrial fibrillation often goes undetected with traditional electrocardiogram monitoring techniques. We evaluated whether atrial fibrillation detection using continuous long-term monitoring with an insertable cardiac monitor is cost-effective for preventing recurrent stroke in patients with cryptogenic stroke, in comparison to the standard of care. METHODS: A lifetime Markov model was developed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of insertable cardiac monitors from a UK National Health Service perspective using data from the randomized CRYSTAL-AF trial and other published literature. We also conducted scenario analyses (CHADS2 score) and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. All costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%. RESULTS: Monitoring cryptogenic stroke patients with an insertable cardiac monitor was associated with fewer recurrent strokes and increased quality-adjusted life years compared to the standard of care (7.37 vs 7.22). Stroke-related costs were reduced in insertable cardiac monitor patients, but overall costs remained higher than the standard of care (£19,631 vs £17,045). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £17,175 per quality-adjusted life years gained, compared to standard of care in the base-case scenario, which is below established quality-adjusted life years willingness-to-pay thresholds. When warfarin replaced non-vitamin-K oral anticoagulants as the main anticoagulation therapy, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £13,296 per quality-adjusted life years gained. CONCLUSION: Insertable cardiac monitors are a cost-effective diagnostic tool for the prevention of recurrent stroke in patients with cryptogenic stroke. The cost-effectiveness results have relevance for the UK and across value-based healthcare systems that assess costs relative to outcomes.

Tocilizumab in the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis: a cost-effectiveness analysis in the UK.

BACKGROUND: Since receiving a positive recommendation in England, Wales and Scotland, tocilizumab (TCZ) is one of the options available to clinicians for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in the UK. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of adding TCZ to the current treatment sequence of RA patients from a UK payer's perspective over a patient lifetime horizon. METHODS: An individual sampling model was developed to synthesise all clinical and economic inputs. Two scenarios were explored separately: patients contraindicated to methotrexate (MTX) and those MTX tolerant. For each scenario, the analysis compared three strategies. The standard of care (SoC) strategy included a sequence of the most commonly prescribed biologics; the other two comparator strategies considered the addition of TCZ to SoC at first line and second line. Patient characteristics were representative of UK patients. Treatment efficacy and quality-of-life evidence were synthesised from clinical trials and secondary sources. An analysis of a patient registry informed the model parameters regarding treatment discontinuation. The safety profile of all treatments in a given strategy was based on a network meta-analysis and literature review. Resource utilisation, treatment acquisition, administration, monitoring and adverse event treatment costs were considered. All costs reflect 2012 prices. Uncertainty in model parameters was explored by one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: In the MTX-contraindicated population, if TCZ was added to the SoC in first line, the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £7,300 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained; if added in second line, the estimated ICER was £11,400 per QALY. In the MTX-tolerant population, the estimated costs and QALYs of the TCZ strategy were similar to those of the SoC strategy. Sensitivity analysis showed that parameters that affect the treatment cost (such as patient weight) can have a noticeable impact on the overall cost-effectiveness results. The majority of the other sensitivity analyses resulted in modest changes to the ICER. CONCLUSION: For the treatment of RA in MTX-tolerant and contraindicated patients, the addition of TCZ to the SoC was estimated to be a cost-effective strategy.

Cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban in the prevention of venous thromboembolism: A Canadian analysis using the Ontario Ministry of Health Perspective.

OBJECTIVES: A cost-effectiveness model for rivaroxaban evaluated the cost-effectiveness of prophylaxis with rivaroxaban (a once-daily, orally administered Factor Xa inhibitor) vs enoxaparin in the prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total hip replacement (THR) and total knee replacement (TKR). This Canadian analysis was conducted using the Ontario Ministry of Health perspective over a 5-year time horizon. The model combined clinical data and builds upon existing economic models. METHODS: The model included both acute VTE (represented as a decision tree) and long-term complications (represented as a Markov process with 1-year cycles) phases. The model allowed VTE event rates, quality-adjusted life expectancy and direct medical costs to be estimated over a 5-year time horizon, based on current approved practice patterns in Canada. A number of one-way sensitivity analyses were performed on the baseline assumptions, including a comparison of rivaroxaban with dalteparin, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to address any uncertainty concerning model inputs. RESULTS: When comparing equal durations of therapy, rivaroxaban dominated enoxaparin in the prevention of VTE events in patients undergoing THR and TKR, providing more benefit at a lower cost. Rivaroxaban was cost-effective when comparing 35 days' prophylaxis with 14 days' prophylaxis with enoxaparin following THR. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the results of the economic analysis were robust to variations in key inputs. Rivaroxaban remained dominant during one-way sensitivity analyses comparing rivaroxaban with dalteparin after THR or TKR. LIMITATIONS: Although clinical trial data were used in the prophylaxis module, assumptions and values used in the post-prophylaxis and long-term complication (LTC) modules were based on several different literature sources; it was not always possible to source Canadian data. CONCLUSIONS: This economic analysis suggests that the use of rivaroxaban for the prophylaxis of VTE after THR or TKR in Canada was cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban versus heparins for prevention of venous thromboembolism after total hip or knee surgery in Sweden.

AIMS: The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban versus the low-molecular-weight heparins (LMWH) enoxaparin and dalteparin for the prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE) after total hip replacement and total knee replacement in Sweden. METHODS: The model included acute venous thromboembolic events and long-term complications over a 5-year time horizon represented by an acute and a chronic phase with 1-year cycles. Transition probabilities were derived from the Regulation of Coagulation in Orthopaedic Surgery to Prevent Deep Vein Thrombosis and Pulmonary Embolism (RECORD) clinical trials. RESULTS: In patients undergoing total hip replacement, the incremental cost per additional quality-adjusted life-year of extended prophylaxis for 35 days with rivaroxaban versus 14 days of prophylaxis with enoxaparin or dalteparin was SEK29,400 and SEK35,400, respectively. In total knee replacement patients, 14 days of rivaroxaban dominated 14 days of LMWH as prophylaxis for VTE. CONCLUSION: The results of the economic model consistently showed that, over a 5-year period, rivaroxaban is a cost-effective alternative to 14 days of LMWH for VTE prophylaxis in Sweden.

An indirect comparison, via enoxaparin, of rivaroxaban with dabigatran in the prevention of venous thromboembolism after hip or knee replacement.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the efficacy, in the prevention of venous thromboembolism (VTE), and safety, of rivaroxaban and dabigatran relative to the common comparator enoxaparin. METHODS: Two randomized clinical trials of dabigatran, one after total hip replacement (THR), RE-NOVATE, and one after total knee replacement (TKR), RE-MODEL, were identified as using the same enoxaparin regimen (40 mg once daily given the evening before surgery) and being of comparable duration to two rivaroxaban trials, RECORD1 and RECORD3. Indirect comparisons were performed on both efficacy and safety endpoints. To enable comparisons, symptomatic VTE results were based on the total study duration period, i.e. including the follow-up period. Major bleeding included surgical-site bleeding events. RESULTS: After THR, rivaroxaban 10 mg once daily significantly reduced total VTE and symptomatic VTE relative to dabigatran 220 mg once daily (relative risk 0.34 and 0.19, respectively). After TKR, rivaroxaban significantly reduced total VTE versus dabigatran (relative risk 0.53); symptomatic VTE was not different between dabigatran and rivaroxaban. There was no significant difference in the rates of major bleeding for patients receiving rivaroxaban or dabigatran. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the indirect comparisons, rivaroxaban was estimated to be more efficacious than dabigatran in the prevention of total VTE after THR and TKR. Our analysis relied upon published data for dabigatran and did not have the advantages of more detailed comparative data obtained directly from a randomized trial, as was the case with rivaroxaban. Further comparative research may be of value, but until available our conclusions represent the best available evidence.