Global epistasis on fitness landscapes.

Epistatic interactions between mutations add substantial complexity to adaptive landscapes and are often thought of as detrimental to our ability to predict evolution. Yet, patterns of global epistasis, in which the fitness effect of a mutation is well-predicted by the fitness of its genetic background, may actually be of help in our efforts to reconstruct fitness landscapes and infer adaptive trajectories. Microscopic interactions between mutations, or inherent nonlinearities in the fitness landscape, may cause global epistasis patterns to emerge. In this brief review, we provide a succinct overview of recent work about global epistasis, with an emphasis on building intuition about why it is often observed. To this end, we reconcile simple geometric reasoning with recent mathematical analyses, using these to explain why different mutations in an empirical landscape may exhibit different global epistasis patterns-ranging from diminishing to increasing returns. Finally, we highlight open questions and research directions. This article is part of the theme issue 'Interdisciplinary approaches to predicting evolutionary biology'.

EvAM-Tools: tools for evolutionary accumulation and cancer progression models.

SUMMARY: EvAM-Tools is an R package and web application that provides a unified interface to state-of-the-art cancer progression models and, more generally, evolutionary models of event accumulation. The output includes, in addition to the fitted models, the transition (and transition rate) matrices between genotypes and the probabilities of evolutionary paths. Generation of random cancer progression models is also available. Using the GUI in the web application, users can easily construct models (modifying directed acyclic graphs of restrictions, matrices of mutual hazards or specifying genotype composition), generate data from them (with user-specified observational/genotyping error) and analyze the data. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Implemented in R and C; open source code available under the GNU Affero General Public License v3.0 at https://github.com/rdiaz02/EvAM-Tools. Docker images freely available from https://hub.docker.com/u/rdiaz02. Web app freely accessible at https://iib.uam.es/evamtools. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Conditional prediction of consecutive tumor evolution using cancer progression models: What genotype comes next?

Accurate prediction of tumor progression is key for adaptive therapy and precision medicine. Cancer progression models (CPMs) can be used to infer dependencies in mutation accumulation from cross-sectional data and provide predictions of tumor progression paths. However, their performance when predicting complete evolutionary trajectories is limited by violations of assumptions and the size of available data sets. Instead of predicting full tumor progression paths, here we focus on short-term predictions, more relevant for diagnostic and therapeutic purposes. We examine whether five distinct CPMs can be used to answer the question "Given that a genotype with n mutations has been observed, what genotype with n + 1 mutations is next in the path of tumor progression?" or, shortly, "What genotype comes next?". Using simulated data we find that under specific combinations of genotype and fitness landscape characteristics CPMs can provide predictions of short-term evolution that closely match the true probabilities, and that some genotype characteristics can be much more relevant than global features. Application of these methods to 25 cancer data sets shows that their use is hampered by a lack of information needed to make principled decisions about method choice. Fruitful use of these methods for short-term predictions requires adapting method's use to local genotype characteristics and obtaining reliable indicators of performance; it will also be necessary to clarify the interpretation of the method's results when key assumptions do not hold.

From genotypes to organisms: State-of-the-art and perspectives of a cornerstone in evolutionary dynamics.

Understanding how genotypes map onto phenotypes, fitness, and eventually organisms is arguably the next major missing piece in a fully predictive theory of evolution. We refer to this generally as the problem of the genotype-phenotype map. Though we are still far from achieving a complete picture of these relationships, our current understanding of simpler questions, such as the structure induced in the space of genotypes by sequences mapped to molecular structures, has revealed important facts that deeply affect the dynamical description of evolutionary processes. Empirical evidence supporting the fundamental relevance of features such as phenotypic bias is mounting as well, while the synthesis of conceptual and experimental progress leads to questioning current assumptions on the nature of evolutionary dynamics-cancer progression models or synthetic biology approaches being notable examples. This work delves with a critical and constructive attitude into our current knowledge of how genotypes map onto molecular phenotypes and organismal functions, and discusses theoretical and empirical avenues to broaden and improve this comprehension. As a final goal, this community should aim at deriving an updated picture of evolutionary processes soundly relying on the structural properties of genotype spaces, as revealed by modern techniques of molecular and functional analysis.

Simulating Evolution in Asexual Populations with Epistasis.

I show how to use OncoSimulR, software for forward-time genetic simulations, to simulate evolution of asexual populations in the presence of epistatic interactions. This chapter emphasizes the specification of fitness and epistasis, both directly (i.e., specifying the effects of individual mutations and their epistatic interactions) and indirectly (using models for random fitness landscapes).

Estimating the predictability of cancer evolution.

MOTIVATION: How predictable is the evolution of cancer? This fundamental question is of immense relevance for the diagnosis, prognosis and treatment of cancer. Evolutionary biologists have approached the question of predictability based on the underlying fitness landscape. However, empirical fitness landscapes of tumor cells are impossible to determine in vivo. Thus, in order to quantify the predictability of cancer evolution, alternative approaches are required that circumvent the need for fitness landscapes. RESULTS: We developed a computational method based on conjunctive Bayesian networks (CBNs) to quantify the predictability of cancer evolution directly from mutational data, without the need for measuring or estimating fitness. Using simulated data derived from >200 different fitness landscapes, we show that our CBN-based notion of evolutionary predictability strongly correlates with the classical notion of predictability based on fitness landscapes under the strong selection weak mutation assumption. The statistical framework enables robust and scalable quantification of evolutionary predictability. We applied our approach to driver mutation data from the TCGA and the MSK-IMPACT clinical cohorts to systematically compare the predictability of 15 different cancer types. We found that cancer evolution is remarkably predictable as only a small fraction of evolutionary trajectories are feasible during cancer progression. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/cbg-ethz/predictability\_of\_cancer\_evolution. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Every which way? On predicting tumor evolution using cancer progression models.

Successful prediction of the likely paths of tumor progression is valuable for diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment purposes. Cancer progression models (CPMs) use cross-sectional samples to identify restrictions in the order of accumulation of driver mutations and thus CPMs encode the paths of tumor progression. Here we analyze the performance of four CPMs to examine whether they can be used to predict the true distribution of paths of tumor progression and to estimate evolutionary unpredictability. Employing simulations we show that if fitness landscapes are single peaked (have a single fitness maximum) there is good agreement between true and predicted distributions of paths of tumor progression when sample sizes are large, but performance is poor with the currently common much smaller sample sizes. Under multi-peaked fitness landscapes (i.e., those with multiple fitness maxima), performance is poor and improves only slightly with sample size. In all cases, detection regime (when tumors are sampled) is a key determinant of performance. Estimates of evolutionary unpredictability from the best performing CPM, among the four examined, tend to overestimate the true unpredictability and the bias is affected by detection regime; CPMs could be useful for estimating upper bounds to the true evolutionary unpredictability. Analysis of twenty-two cancer data sets shows low evolutionary unpredictability for several of the data sets. But most of the predictions of paths of tumor progression are very unreliable, and unreliability increases with the number of features analyzed. Our results indicate that CPMs could be valuable tools for predicting cancer progression but that, currently, obtaining useful predictions of paths of tumor progression from CPMs is dubious, and emphasize the need for methodological work that can account for the probably multi-peaked fitness landscapes in cancer.

Cancer progression models and fitness landscapes: a many-to-many relationship.

Motivation: The identification of constraints, due to gene interactions, in the order of accumulation of mutations during cancer progression can allow us to single out therapeutic targets. Cancer progression models (CPMs) use genotype frequency data from cross-sectional samples to identify these constraints, and return Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) of restrictions where arrows indicate dependencies or constraints. On the other hand, fitness landscapes, which map genotypes to fitness, contain all possible paths of tumor progression. Thus, we expect a correspondence between DAGs from CPMs and the fitness landscapes where evolution happened. But many fitness landscapes-e.g. those with reciprocal sign epistasis-cannot be represented by CPMs. Results: Using simulated data under 500 fitness landscapes, I show that CPMs' performance (prediction of genotypes that can exist) degrades with reciprocal sign epistasis. There is large variability in the DAGs inferred from each landscape, which is also affected by mutation rate, detection regime and fitness landscape features, in ways that depend on CPM method. Using three cancer datasets, I show that these problems strongly affect the analysis of empirical data: fitness landscapes that are widely different from each other produce data similar to the empirically observed ones and lead to DAGs that infer very different restrictions. Because reciprocal sign epistasis can be common in cancer, these results question the use and interpretation of CPMs. Availability and implementation: Code available from Supplementary Material. Contact: ramon.diaz@iib.uam.es. Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

OncoSimulR: genetic simulation with arbitrary epistasis and mutator genes in asexual populations.

SUMMARY: OncoSimulR implements forward-time genetic simulations of biallelic loci in asexual populations with special focus on cancer progression. Fitness can be defined as an arbitrary function of genetic interactions between multiple genes or modules of genes, including epistasis, restrictions in the order of accumulation of mutations, and order effects. Mutation rates can differ among genes, and can be affected by (anti)mutator genes. Also available are sampling from simulations (including single-cell sampling), plotting the genealogical relationships of clones and generating and plotting fitness landscapes. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: Implemented in R and C ++, freely available from BioConductor for Linux, Mac and Windows under the GNU GPL license. Version 2.5.9 or higher available from: http://www.bioconductor.org/packages/devel/bioc/html/OncoSimulR.html . GitHub repository at: https://github.com/rdiaz02/OncoSimul. CONTACT: ramon.diaz@iib.uam.es. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Identifying restrictions in the order of accumulation of mutations during tumor progression: effects of passengers, evolutionary models, and sampling.

BACKGROUND: Cancer progression is caused by the sequential accumulation of mutations, but not all orders of accumulation are equally likely. When the fixation of some mutations depends on the presence of previous ones, identifying restrictions in the order of accumulation of mutations can lead to the discovery of therapeutic targets and diagnostic markers. The purpose of this study is to conduct a comprehensive comparison of the performance of all available methods to identify these restrictions from cross-sectional data. I used simulated data sets (where the true restrictions are known) but, in contrast to previous work, I embedded restrictions within evolutionary models of tumor progression that included passengers (mutations not responsible for the development of cancer, known to be very common). This allowed me to assess, for the first time, the effects of having to filter out passengers, of sampling schemes (when, how, and how many samples), and of deviations from order restrictions. RESULTS: Poor choices of method, filtering, and sampling lead to large errors in all performance measures. Having to filter passengers lead to decreased performance, especially because true restrictions were missed. Overall, the best method for identifying order restrictions were Oncogenetic Trees, a fast and easy to use method that, although unable to recover dependencies of mutations on more than one mutation, showed good performance in most scenarios, superior to Conjunctive Bayesian Networks and Progression Networks. Single cell sampling provided no advantage, but sampling in the final stages of the disease vs. sampling at different stages had severe effects. Evolutionary model and deviations from order restrictions had major, and sometimes counterintuitive, interactions with other factors that affected performance. CONCLUSIONS: This paper provides practical recommendations for using these methods with experimental data. It also identifies key areas of future methodological work and, in particular, it shows that it is both possible and necessary to embed assumptions about order restrictions and the nature of driver status within evolutionary models of cancer progression to evaluate the performance of inferential approaches.

Genome wide association study identifies a novel putative mammographic density locus at 1q12-q21.

Mammographic density (MD) is an intermediate phenotype for breast cancer. Previous studies have identified genetic variants associated with MD; however, much of the genetic contribution to MD is unexplained. We conducted a two-stage genome-wide association analysis among the participants in the "Determinants of Density in Mammographies in Spain" study, together with a replication analysis in women from the Australian MD Twins and Sisters Study. Our discovery set covered a total of 3,351 Caucasian women aged 45 to 68 years, recruited from Spanish breast cancer screening centres. MD was blindly assessed by a single reader using Boyd's scale. A two-stage approach was employed, including a feature selection phase exploring 575,374 SNPs in 239 pairs of women with extreme phenotypes and a verification stage for the 183 selected SNPs in the remaining sample (2,873 women). Replication was conducted in 1,786 women aged 40 to 70 years old recruited via the Australian Twin Registry, where MD were measured using Cumulus-3.0, assessing 14 SNPs with a p value <0.10 in stage 2. Finally, two genetic variants in high linkage disequilibrium with our best hit were studied using the whole Spanish sample. Evidence of association with MD was found for variant rs11205277 (OR = 0.74; 95% CI = 0.67-0.81; p = 1.33 × 10(-10) ). In replication analysis, only a marginal association between this SNP and absolute dense area was found. There were also evidence of association between MD and SNPs in high linkage disequilibrium with rs11205277, rs11205303 in gene MTMR11 (OR = 0.73; 95% CI = 0.66-0.80; p = 2.64 × 10(-11) ) and rs67807996 in gene OTUD7B (OR = 0.72; 95% CI = 0.66-0.80; p = 2.03 × 10(-11)). Our findings provide additional evidence on common genetic variations that may contribute to MD.

Levels of active tyrosine kinase receptor determine the tumor response to Zalypsis.

BACKGROUND: Zalypsis(®) is a marine compound in phase II clinical trials for multiple myeloma, cervical and endometrial cancer, and Ewing's sarcoma. However, the determinants of the response to Zalypsis are not well known. The identification of biomarkers for Zalypsis activity would also contribute to broaden the spectrum of tumors by selecting those patients more likely to respond to this therapy. METHODS: Using in vitro drug sensitivity data coupled with a set of molecular data from a panel of sarcoma cell lines, we developed molecular signatures that predict sensitivity to Zalypsis. We verified these results in culture and in vivo xenograft studies. RESULTS: Zalypsis resistance was dependent on the expression levels of PDGFRα or constitutive phosphorylation of c-Kit, indicating that the activation of tyrosine kinase receptors (TKRs) may determine resistance to Zalypsis. To validate our observation, we measured the levels of total and active (phosphorylated) forms of the RTKs PDGFRα/ß, c-Kit, and EGFR in a new panel of diverse solid tumor cell lines and found that the IC50 to the drug correlated with RTK activation in this new panel. We further tested our predictions about Zalypsis determinants for response in vivo in xenograft models. All cells lines expressing low levels of RTK signaling were sensitive to Zalypsis in vivo, whereas all cell lines except two with high levels of RTK signaling were resistant to the drug. CONCLUSIONS: RTK activation might provide important signals to overcome the cytotoxicity of Zalypsis and should be taken into consideration in current and future clinical trials.

ADaCGH2: parallelized analysis of (big) CNA data.

MOTIVATION: Studies of genomic DNA copy number alteration can deal with datasets with several million probes and thousands of subjects. Analyzing these data with currently available software (e.g. as available from BioConductor) can be extremely slow and may not be feasible because of memory requirements. RESULTS: We have developed a BioConductor package, ADaCGH2, that parallelizes the main segmentation algorithms (using forking on multicore computers or parallelization via message passing interface, etc., in clusters of computers) and uses ff objects for reading and data storage. We show examples of data with 6 million probes per array; we can analyze data that would otherwise not fit in memory, and compared with the non-parallelized versions we can achieve speedups of 25-40 times on a 64-cores machine. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: ADaCGH2 is an R package available from BioConductor. Version 2.3.11 or higher is available from the development branch: http://www.bioconductor.org/packages/devel/bioc/html/ADaCGH2.html.

An epistatic interaction between the PAX8 and STK17B genes in papillary thyroid cancer susceptibility.

Papillary Thyroid Cancer (PTC) is a heterogeneous and complex disease; susceptibility to PTC is influenced by the joint effects of multiple common, low-penetrance genes, although relatively few have been identified to date. Here we applied a rigorous combined approach to assess both the individual and epistatic contributions of genetic factors to PTC susceptibility, based on one of the largest series of thyroid cancer cases described to date. In addition to identifying the involvement of TSHR variation in classic PTC, our pioneer study of epistasis revealed a significant interaction between variants in STK17B and PAX8. The interaction was detected by MD-MBR (p = 0.00010) and confirmed by other methods, and then replicated in a second independent series of patients (MD-MBR p = 0.017). Furthermore, we demonstrated an inverse correlation between expression of PAX8 and STK17B in a set of cell lines derived from human thyroid carcinomas. Overall, our work sheds additional light on the genetic basis of thyroid cancer susceptibility, and suggests a new direction for the exploration of the inherited genetic contribution to disease using association studies.

Finding common regions of alteration in copy number data.

In this chapter, we review some recent methods designed for detecting recurrent copy number regions, that is, genomic regions that show evidence of being altered in a set of samples. We analyze Affymetrix SNP6 data from 87 Her2-type breast tumors from a recent study using three different methods, showing different definitions and features of common regions: studying heterogeneity in copy number profiles, refining candidates for driver oncogenes, and consolidating broad amplifications.

An optimized predictor panel for colorectal cancer diagnosis based on the combination of tumor-associated antigens obtained from protein and phage microarrays.

Humoral response in cancer patients appears early in cancer progression and can be used for diagnosis, including early detection. By using human recombinant protein and T7 phage microarrays displaying colorectal cancer (CRC)-specific peptides, we previously selected 6 phages and 6 human recombinant proteins as tumor-associated antigens (TAAs) with high diagnostic value. After completing validation in biological samples, TAAs were classified according to their correlation, redundancy in reactivity patterns and multiplex diagnostic capabilities. For predictor model optimization, TAAs were reanalyzed with a new set of samples. A combination of three phages displaying peptides homologous to GRN, NHSL1 and SREBF2 and four proteins PIM1, MAPKAPK3, FGFR4 and ACVR2B, achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 94%, with a sensitivity of 89.1% and specificity of 90.0%, to correctly predict the presence of cancer. For early colorectal cancer stages, the AUC was 90%, with a sensitivity of 88.2% and specificity of 82.6%. In summary, we have defined an optimized predictor panel, combining TAAs from different sources, with highly improved accuracy and diagnostic value for colorectal cancer. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Translational Proteomics.

miRNA expression in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma treated with chemoimmunotherapy.

Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) prognostication requires additional biologic markers. miRNAs may constitute markers for cancer diagnosis, outcome, or therapy response. In the present study, we analyzed the miRNA expression profile in a retrospective multicenter series of 258 DLBCL patients uniformly treated with chemoimmunotherapy. Findings were correlated with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). miRNA and gene-expression profiles were studied using microarrays in an initial set of 36 cases. A selection of miRNAs associated with either DLBCL molecular subtypes (GCB/ABC) or clinical outcome were studied by multiplex RT-PCR in a test group of 240 cases with available formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) diagnostic samples. The samples were divided into a training set (123 patients) and used to derive miRNA-based and combined (with IPI score) Cox regression models in an independent validation series (117 patients). Our model based on miRNA expression predicts OS and PFS and improves upon the predictions based on clinical variables. Combined models with IPI score identified a high-risk group of patients with a 2-year OS and a PFS probability of < 50%. In summary, a precise miRNA signature is associated with poor clinical outcome in chemoimmunotherapy-treated DLBCL patients. This information improves upon IPI-based predictions and identifies a subgroup of candidate patients for alternative therapeutic regimens.

CNVassoc: Association analysis of CNV data using R.

BACKGROUND: Copy number variants (CNV) are a potentially important component of the genetic contribution to risk of common complex diseases. Analysis of the association between CNVs and disease requires that uncertainty in CNV copy-number calls, which can be substantial, be taken into account; failure to consider this uncertainty can lead to biased results. Therefore, there is a need to develop and use appropriate statistical tools. To address this issue, we have developed CNVassoc, an R package for carrying out association analysis of common copy number variants in population-based studies. This package includes functions for testing for association with different classes of response variables (e.g. class status, censored data, counts) under a series of study designs (case-control, cohort, etc) and inheritance models, adjusting for covariates. The package includes functions for inferring copy number (CNV genotype calling), but can also accept copy number data generated by other algorithms (e.g. CANARY, CGHcall, IMPUTE). RESULTS: Here we present a new R package, CNVassoc, that can deal with different types of CNV arising from different platforms such as MLPA o aCGH. Through a real data example we illustrate that our method is able to incorporate uncertainty in the association process. We also show how our package can also be useful when analyzing imputed data when analyzing imputed SNPs. Through a simulation study we show that CNVassoc outperforms CNVtools in terms of computing time as well as in convergence failure rate. CONCLUSIONS: We provide a package that outperforms the existing ones in terms of modelling flexibility, power, convergence rate, ease of covariate adjustment, and requirements for sample size and signal quality. Therefore, we offer CNVassoc as a method for routine use in CNV association studies.